2021-08-11: Brewers (Burnes) at Cubs (Arrieta) [Brewers win, 10-0 -- Burnes strikes out 15 and doesn’t allow a walk; Burnes also ties MLB record with 10 consecutive Ks]

[Eye Black]

 

 

Corbin Burnes: Batter (Cubs) vs Pitching Stats

 

Jake Arrieta: Batter (Brewers) vs Pitching Stats

 

 

Statcast Game Preview for Cubs-Brewers

 

Statcast Game Feed for Cubs-Brewers

[LouisEly]

More storms expected to come through tonight. Looks like first wave around 8pm, then a second wave around 10pm.

 

I had hoped to go to one or two of these, but don't feel like sitting through the sweltering heat and multi-hour rain delays.

[PeaveyFury]

Yep, basically the third straight days of 5-8pm storms up here in Wisconsin as well. Seems likely there'll be a delay of some sort if that's the forecast south as well.

[jonescm128]

I know its a Burnes start but didn't know where else to put this. This is damn impressive:

 

 

Jeremy Frank

@MLBRandomStats

Most consecutive starts with more strikeouts than hits allowed:

 

25 Randy Johnson (1999-2000)

21 Freddy Peralta (active)

20 Pedro Martinez (2001)

 

@Brewers

[Jopal78]

I'm surprised Arrieta has not yet been designated for assignment, especially since the Cubs broke up their team. Arrieta was merely passable in April and May but since June 1st he essentially has handed the Cubs and automatic loss every time he takes the ball.

 

9 Starts, 31.1 innings, 51 Hits allowed, 17 walks, and 12 homeruns allowed. That's a WHIP of 2.18 and has an ERA of 9.54.

 

Finally, hasn't gone longer than 5 innings since the middle of May. In his 9 starts since June 1st, he failed to last five innings in six of them.

[jerichoholicninja]

If it looks like rain during the game do they skip Burnes so they don't waste him like Ashby last night?

[formerlybis]

If it looks like the storms start at 8'ish, I'd prefer they hold off the start time. But if it looks like they will start on time and then go into a delay, it might be an interesting strategy to have a long reliever/opener start the game and then have Burnes come in after the delay. The risk is that most of the relievers were used yesterday (though Sanchez only threw one pitch, and Cousins 9), and someone like Norris could put you in a hole. But it might be better than having Burnes only go two and then relying on the pen for 7.

[wibadgers23]

Man I would really hate to waste a Burnes start tonight and only see him go a couple innings. Hopefully the weather holds off.

[markedman5]

Not sure which long reliever we could even start.......everyone other then Norris pitched yesterday.

 

Unless they put Curtiss on IL and call up Lindblom or something?

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Man I would really hate to waste a Burnes start tonight and only see him go a couple innings. Hopefully the weather holds off.

 

Would be tempted to go Lindblom tonight against Arrieta and save Burnes for Hemdricks tomorrow. Especially with weather.

 

Still, I understand pressing an advantage if you think you have one.

 

Good news is looks like scattered t-storms, so a bit more optimistic than last night.

[KeithStone53151]

Man I would really hate to waste a Burnes start tonight and only see him go a couple innings. Hopefully the weather holds off.

 

I wouldn't call it a waste no matter what, division lead is pretty solid and the silver lining would be limiting innings.

[KeithStone53151]

Man I would really hate to waste a Burnes start tonight and only see him go a couple innings. Hopefully the weather holds off.

 

Would be tempted to go Lindblom tonight against Arrieta and save Burnes for Hemdricks tomorrow. Especially with weather.

 

Still, I understand pressing an advantage if you think you have one.

 

Good news is looks like scattered t-storms, so a bit more optimistic than last night.

 

With the lead we have, i think the better strategy might be going this way and increasing our odds of walking away with at least 1 win than lowering our chance of 1 win but increasing our chance of 2.

[formerlybis]

Not sure which long reliever we could even start.......everyone other then Norris pitched yesterday.

 

Unless they put Curtiss on IL and call up Lindblom or something?

 

Someone can correct me, but I think Ashby was up as an extra spot that MLB allows for doubleheaders. If Curtiss goes on the IL, that gets you back to the non-doubleheader roster limit. So, if they're bringing up Lindblom, someone else has to go down.

 

This is the last series at Wrigley this season, so if they had to postpone tonight, they would probably try to do a doubleheader tomorrow (so, back to doubleheader roster size). The next series for the Brewers is at Pittsburgh, which isn't that long a flight, so another game tomorrow, while not ideal, isn't that much of a killer travel-wise.

[wibadgers23]

Well what would make it a waste is if Burnes goes out there for a couple innings, game gets delayed and then the bullpen comes in and ultimately loses the game. I would definitely call that a wasted start.

[markedman5]

Not sure which long reliever we could even start.......everyone other then Norris pitched yesterday.

 

Unless they put Curtiss on IL and call up Lindblom or something?

 

Someone can correct me, but I think Ashby was up as an extra spot that MLB allows for doubleheaders. If Curtiss goes on the IL, that gets you back to the non-doubleheader roster limit. So, if they're bringing up Lindblom, someone else has to go down.

 

This is the last series at Wrigley this season, so if they had to postpone tonight, they would probably try to do a doubleheader tomorrow (so, back to doubleheader roster size). The next series for the Brewers is at Pittsburgh, which isn't that long a flight, so another game tomorrow, while not ideal, isn't that much of a killer travel-wise.

 

Perdomo could go down......he couldn't pitch today anyway....and you if can't trust him in a 6-1 game to pitch an inning then not sure how he has a place on the roster anyway.

[KeithStone53151]

Well what would make it a waste is if Burnes goes out there for a couple innings, game gets delayed and then the bullpen comes in and ultimately loses the game. I would definitely call that a wasted start.

 

No guarantee the bullpen would lose the game. Even with Burnes out after a few innings, our bullpen and lineup are better than their bullpen and lineup. And we could easily have a lead in those 2-3 innings.

[wallus]

I'm surprised Arrieta has not yet been designated for assignment, especially since the Cubs broke up their team. Arrieta was merely passable in April and May but since June 1st he essentially has handed the Cubs and automatic loss every time he takes the ball.

 

9 Starts, 31.1 innings, 51 Hits allowed, 17 walks, and 12 homeruns allowed. That's a WHIP of 2.18 and has an ERA of 9.54.

 

Finally, hasn't gone longer than 5 innings since the middle of May. In his 9 starts since June 1st, he failed to last five innings in six of them.

 

Well I'm guessing they want to lose so he is doing what they want.

[PeaveyFury]

Man I would really hate to waste a Burnes start tonight and only see him go a couple innings. Hopefully the weather holds off.

 

Would be tempted to go Lindblom tonight against Arrieta and save Burnes for Hemdricks tomorrow.

 

This is what I would do as well. Lindblom makes more sense vs. a basically AAAA Cubs' lineup where he MAY only be able to go 1-2x through due to the weather than potentially wasting Burnes.

[markedman5]

Well what would make it a waste is if Burnes goes out there for a couple innings, game gets delayed and then the bullpen comes in and ultimately loses the game. I would definitely call that a wasted start.

 

No guarantee the bullpen would lose the game. Even with Burnes out after a few innings, our bullpen and lineup are better than their bullpen and lineup. And we could easily have a lead in those 2-3 innings.

 

Not sure CC wants to have a bullpen day right after a double header where every non starter pitched other then Norris.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Man I would really hate to waste a Burnes start tonight and only see him go a couple innings. Hopefully the weather holds off.

 

Would be tempted to go Lindblom tonight against Arrieta and save Burnes for Hemdricks tomorrow.

 

This is what I would do as well. Lindblom makes more sense vs. a basically AAAA Cubs' lineup where he MAY only be able to go 1-2x through due to the weather than potentially wasting Burnes.

 

Except that Lindblom just started Sunday and threw 50 pitches for Nashville. I know that isn't his typical pitch count, but I don't know if throwing him on 3 days rest is the best idea regardless.

[PeaveyFury]

Except that Lindblom just started Sunday and threw 50 pitches for Nashville. I know that isn't his typical pitch count, but I don't know if throwing him on 3 days rest is the best idea regardless.

 

I guess the question would be whether it was appropriate if they only planned on him going ~ 3 innings.

[markedman5]

Since we are always quick to point out when umpires are terrible it only seems fair to recognize when one is really good

 

[wildcat83]

Not sure which long reliever we could even start.......everyone other then Norris pitched yesterday.

 

Unless they put Curtiss on IL and call up Lindblom or something?

 

Someone can correct me, but I think Ashby was up as an extra spot that MLB allows for doubleheaders. If Curtiss goes on the IL, that gets you back to the non-doubleheader roster limit. So, if they're bringing up Lindblom, someone else has to go down.

 

This is the last series at Wrigley this season, so if they had to postpone tonight, they would probably try to do a doubleheader tomorrow (so, back to doubleheader roster size). The next series for the Brewers is at Pittsburgh, which isn't that long a flight, so another game tomorrow, while not ideal, isn't that much of a killer travel-wise.

 

I thought the extra man automatically goes back down after the double header. Then Lindbloom could replace Curtiss if he goes to IL. Think that’s more likely for tomorrow though if Lindbloom threw on Sunday.

[igor67]

The ump scorecards are somewhat useful, but the definition of consistency they use does not come remotely close to how people actually use the term. What you really want to know is when the ump has a slightly different strikezone then the computer how consistently is he calling pitches on the edges. I'm not sure from the raw data what the easiest way would be to calculate a statistic, but I can think of a few different starting points so it's not that hard to do.

[brewerfan82]

The ump scorecards are somewhat useful, but the definition of consistency they use does not come remotely close to how people actually use the term. What you really want to know is when the ump has a slightly different strikezone then the computer how consistently is he calling pitches on the edges. I'm not sure from the raw data what the easiest way would be to calculate a statistic, but I can think of a few different starting points so it's not that hard to do.

I think that is how it's defining it, isn't it? Basically in this case the established strikezone is the perimeter of everywhere he generally called pitches strikes (I'm not sure how they handle outliers to determine the "established" strikezone) and in no case did he call a ball within that established strikezone, nor did he call a strike outside of it. Therefore he had to have been 100% consistent on all the edge cases as well. Maybe I'm misunderstanding your definition of consistency?

 

Ah, here's the full explanation: https://ethan-singer.com/articles/umpire-consistency-scores.html

 

Seems to mostly match my definition of consistency. However if he called one really bad strike, seems like it could cause the whole established strikezone to be way off and cause a lot of consistently called balls to end up being called "inconsistent" because of it. So I could see cases where it doesn't quite work right.