NL CY Young Race

[The stache]

I honestly don't know why there's even a discussion any further. Unless Corbin Burnes blows his last start, he's the NL Cy Young winner going away, or should be. If the voters pick somebody else, they're uninformed. Max Scherzer and Zack Wheeler have had great seasons. But Burnes has been better. And that's not debatable.

 

The innings thing? That would look great as the justification for Corbin Burnes being robbed of the Cy Young, because of a 2 week stint in COVID protocols that took him out of of 2-3 starts.

 

 

All these other stats, wins, win-loss %, ERA, ERA+...they are heavily influenced by the team around the pitcher. They're next to useless here. The Cy Young is supposed to go to the best pitcher. How could you possibly determine that unless you eliminate the variables that may skew the statistical metrics considered?

 

Brandon Woodruff's 166 ERA+ is second best in the Majors. He's got a 9-10 record.

 

FIP virtually eliminates the variables that are team defense, and run support.

 

A good pitcher like Woodruff can get crap run support, and even though he's pitched at an elite level, he still has a losing record.

 

Meanwhile, take a guy like Pete Vuckovich, who in 1982 had a 114 ERA+, a 4.03 FIP, a 1.502 WHIP, and his strikeout to walk ratio was almost 1:1. 105 K, 102 BB. Yet, he clearly won the Cy Young because he was 18-6, and his .750 winning percentage was the best in baseball. He won not because of how he pitched, but because he had the Brewers offense behind him, which was by far the best in baseball, scoring 5.47 RPG. The next best team was the California Angels at 5.02.

 

FIP only considers walks, strikeouts, home runs and hit batters. Beyond the rare inside the park home run (statistically negligible where FIP is concerned), and the impact pitch framing has on walks and strikeouts, 99% of FIP is pitcher performance driven.

 

MLB FIP leaders, as of 9/30/31

 

1. Corbin Burnes, 1.55

2. Zack Wheeler, 2.58

3. Nathan Eovaldi (BOS), 2.78

4. Gerrit Cole (NYY), 2.91

5. Brandon Woodruff, 2.95

6. Max Scherzer, 2.97

 

If FIP is referred to as expected ERA, the race for the trophy is over.

Burnes 1.55

Wheeler 2.58

Scherzer 2.97

 

Again, why is this even being debated? Get rid of all the other crap, things like WAR which are impacted by wins, win/loss record. ERA, which can skyrocket if your defense stinks. Or, it can be made to look better than the pitcher's actual performance by an elite defense.

 

Take Jim Palmer in the early 1970s. I've seen one group after another debate who the best pitcher of that decadewas. Many argue Palmer. I think it's Tom Seaver. Palmer's had two top 5 finishes in FIP in his career. Among all Hall of Fame starting pitchers with 150 or more starts in the Live Ball Era (1920-present), 47 in total, Palmer ranks 32nd in FIP. 70% of his career innings came in the 1970s. In the decade itself? 90 pitchers had 150 or more starts between 1970 and 1979. Palmer's FIP of 3.29 was 21st of 90 pitchers. Yet, he had the most wins (186), the best ERA (2.58) and second best ERA+ (137) behind Tom Seaver's 138.

 

Clearly, having Mark Belanger at shortstop, Brooks Robinson at third, Davey Johnson then Bobby Grich at second, and Paul Blair in center, five men who combined to win 39 Gold Gloves while in Baltimore, made Palmer look better than he should have. Given the choice, Tom Seaver was by far the more effective pitcher. His 2.65 FIP was the best in the 1970s. He didn't need his defense to do the work for him.

 

Corbin Burnes has been better than Scherzer and Wheeler. I don't care that they have 15 and 14 wins, to Burnes 11. Burnes has had five other starts of 6 or more IP, and 2 or fewer ER allowed, and got a no decision.

 

And his losses? In his four losses, the Brewers got shut out three times. And the fourth game, they scored 1 run. Burnes had a 4.03 ERA in those games, but he pitched better than that number shows. In 22 1/3 IP, he gave up 10 earned runs. But he only walked 4 batters, and gave up 16 hits. And 1 home run.

 

That's a 0.897 WHIP (20 H + BB / 22.3 IP)

He struck out 36 batters. That's a 9:1 SO/BB ratio.

And he struck out 14.53/9 IP

 

Clearly he pitched at a high level. The rest of the team just stunk. And the Brewers gave him 1 run of support in 4 games.

[Eye Black]

Updated NL ERA Leaderboard:

 

Corbin Burnes - 2.29 ERA

Max Scherzer - 2.46 ERA

Walker Buehler - 2.49 ERA

Brandon Woodruff - 2.56 ERA

Zack Wheeler - 2.78 ERA

[TURBO]

Updated NL ERA Leaderboard:

 

Corbin Burnes - 2.29 ERA

Max Scherzer - 2.46 ERA

Walker Buehler - 2.49 ERA

Brandon Woodruff - 2.56 ERA

Zack Wheeler - 2.78 ERA

 

[IIAY]

I honestly don't know why there's even a discussion any further. Unless Corbin Burnes blows his last start, he's the NL Cy Young winner going away, or should be. If the voters pick somebody else, they're uninformed. Max Scherzer and Zack Wheeler have had great seasons. But Burnes has been better. And that's not debatable.

 

The innings thing? That would look great as the justification for Corbin Burnes being robbed of the Cy Young, because of a 2 week stint in COVID protocols that took him out of of 2-3 starts.

 

 

All these other stats, wins, win-loss %, ERA, ERA+...they are heavily influenced by the team around the pitcher. They're next to useless here. The Cy Young is supposed to go to the best pitcher. How could you possibly determine that unless you eliminate the variables that may skew the statistical metrics considered?

 

Brandon Woodruff's 166 ERA+ is second best in the Majors. He's got a 9-10 record.

 

FIP virtually eliminates the variables that are team defense, and run support.

 

A good pitcher like Woodruff can get crap run support, and even though he's pitched at an elite level, he still has a losing record.

 

Meanwhile, take a guy like Pete Vuckovich, who in 1982 had a 114 ERA+, a 4.03 FIP, a 1.502 WHIP, and his strikeout to walk ratio was almost 1:1. 105 K, 102 BB. Yet, he clearly won the Cy Young because he was 18-6, and his .750 winning percentage was the best in baseball. He won not because of how he pitched, but because he had the Brewers offense behind him, which was by far the best in baseball, scoring 5.47 RPG. The next best team was the California Angels at 5.02.

 

FIP only considers walks, strikeouts, home runs and hit batters. Beyond the rare inside the park home run (statistically negligible where FIP is concerned), and the impact pitch framing has on walks and strikeouts, 99% of FIP is pitcher performance driven.

 

MLB FIP leaders, as of 9/30/31

 

1. Corbin Burnes, 1.55

2. Zack Wheeler, 2.58

3. Nathan Eovaldi (BOS), 2.78

4. Gerrit Cole (NYY), 2.91

5. Brandon Woodruff, 2.95

6. Max Scherzer, 2.97

 

If FIP is referred to as expected ERA, the race for the trophy is over.

Burnes 1.55

Wheeler 2.58

Scherzer 2.97

 

Again, why is this even being debated? Get rid of all the other crap, things like WAR which are impacted by wins, win/loss record. ERA, which can skyrocket if your defense stinks. Or, it can be made to look better than the pitcher's actual performance by an elite defense.

 

Take Jim Palmer in the early 1970s. I've seen one group after another debate who the best pitcher of that decadewas. Many argue Palmer. I think it's Tom Seaver. Palmer's had two top 5 finishes in FIP in his career. Among all Hall of Fame starting pitchers with 150 or more starts in the Live Ball Era (1920-present), 47 in total, Palmer ranks 32nd in FIP. 70% of his career innings came in the 1970s. In the decade itself? 90 pitchers had 150 or more starts between 1970 and 1979. Palmer's FIP of 3.29 was 21st of 90 pitchers. Yet, he had the most wins (186), the best ERA (2.58) and second best ERA+ (137) behind Tom Seaver's 138.

 

Clearly, having Mark Belanger at shortstop, Brooks Robinson at third, Davey Johnson then Bobby Grich at second, and Paul Blair in center, five men who combined to win 39 Gold Gloves while in Baltimore, made Palmer look better than he should have. Given the choice, Tom Seaver was by far the more effective pitcher. His 2.65 FIP was the best in the 1970s. He didn't need his defense to do the work for him.

 

Corbin Burnes has been better than Scherzer and Wheeler. I don't care that they have 15 and 14 wins, to Burnes 11. Burnes has had five other starts of 6 or more IP, and 2 or fewer ER allowed, and got a no decision.

 

And his losses? In his four losses, the Brewers got shut out three times. And the fourth game, they scored 1 run. Burnes had a 4.03 ERA in those games, but he pitched better than that number shows. In 22 1/3 IP, he gave up 10 earned runs. But he only walked 4 batters, and gave up 16 hits. And 1 home run.

 

That's a 0.897 WHIP (20 H + BB / 22.3 IP)

He struck out 36 batters. That's a 9:1 SO/BB ratio.

And he struck out 14.53/9 IP

 

Clearly he pitched at a high level. The rest of the team just stunk. And the Brewers gave him 1 run of support in 4 games.

 

I don't know... I pay $60 a year to The Athletic to have "experts" like Keith Law tell me that Zack Wheeler is going win the NL Cy Young AND the NL MVP award.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Almost all sports betting sites have moved Burnes to -175 or more and is now the favorite for NL CY Young...

 

https://www.rotowire.com/betting/mlb/player-futures.php

 

 

And BTW, please don't pay anything to help keep Keith Law employed. Thank you in advance.

[adambr2]

You wouldn't normally expect one start to weigh so heavily in a Cy Young race, but that's the razor thin margin between the candidates in this one.

[A Swing and A Drive]

 

This article explains why Burnes should be the favorite for the NL award.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/brewers-breakdown-is-corbin-burnes-the-nl-cy-young-favorite

[A Swing and A Drive]

Interesting question, but if this was 20+ years ago wouldn't Julio Urias be the front runner for the award?

 

LHP Julio Urias (LAD) 19-3, 3.01 ERA, 179.1 IP, 188K, 1.02 WHIP

 

Brewers are the only thing standing in his way from finishing the year with a 20-3 W/L record.

 

It's crazy that he's not even being mentioned as a candidate for the Award. The World of Baseball has changed. lol

[A Swing and A Drive]

Burnes now currently holds the NL ERA title over Scherzer, 2.29 to 2.46

 

Let's just assume Craig allows Corbin to pitch 5 inning this Saturday to give him an even 170 IP on the season.

 

In order to lose the ERA title, Corbin would need to give up 5+ Earned Runs in those 5 innings for Scherzer to overtake him.

 

In 5 IP in his last start of the season, below is the ERA Burnes would finish with based on Earned Runs allowed this Saturday.

 

5 ER = 2.488 ERA

4 ER = 2.435 ERA

3 ER = 2.382 ERA

2 ER = 2.329 ERA

1 ER = 2.276 ERA

0 ER = 2.223 ERA

 

 

This is not the only stat voters will look at but I think it might be the number one ranked stat they will traditionally go on.

 

GO CORBIN!!!!

 

P.S. Walker Buehler currently has 2.49 ERA and could pitch in a game 163 if necessary BTW

[sdcheezhd]

Continuing their run of luck, the Cards now know they won't be facing Scary Max Scherzer in the WC. It may not be Max and if it is he won't be scary. At least he gave us a heads-up. He did pitch well against them a few weeks ago.

 

You know who would be starting a WC game for sure? Corbin Burnes.

[MrTPlush]

Max Scherzer getting steamrolled in back-to-back starts is an interesting plot twist. I doubt voters would have raised an eye brow for one bad start...but two in a row may get some thinking.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Continuing their run of luck, the Cards now know they won't be facing Scary Max Scherzer in the WC. It may not be Max and if it is he won't be scary. At least he gave us a heads-up. He did pitch well against them a few weeks ago.

 

You know who would be starting a WC game for sure? Corbin Burnes.

 

The NL Wild Card game is scheduled for Wednesday, Oct. 6. Scherzer and Buehler aren't scheduled to face the Brewers this weekend, unless the Dodgers throw either on Sunday if it a must-win for their division chances.

Edited September 30, 2021 by Ron Robinson's Beard

[MrTPlush]

Continuing their run of luck, the Cards now know they won't be facing Scary Max Scherzer in the WC. It may not be Max and if it is he won't be scary. At least he gave us a heads-up. He did pitch well against them a few weeks ago.

 

You know who would be starting a WC game for sure? Corbin Burnes.

 

The NL Wild Card game is scheduled for Wednesday, Oct. 6. Why wouldn't Scherzer be able to go in that one after pitching last night? He's not scheduled to face the Brewers this weekend, unless the Dodgers throw him on Sunday if it a must-win for their division chances.

 

He is making an assumption that Max Scherzer is going to continue not being scary based on a start or two...not that Scherzer won't start the game at all.

 

I wouldn't bet on that.

[sveumrules]

Interesting question, but if this was 20+ years ago wouldn't Julio Urias be the front runner for the award?

 

LHP Julio Urias (LAD) 19-3, 3.01 ERA, 179.1 IP, 188K, 1.02 WHIP

 

Brewers are the only thing standing in his way from finishing the year with a 20-3 W/L record.

 

It's crazy that he's not even being mentioned as a candidate for the Award. The World of Baseball has changed. lol

 

Don't even need to go back 20 years. Rick Porcello won in 2016 with a 22-4 record & 4.7 WAR season, while Verlander & his 7.4 WAR (but only a 16-9 record) had to settle for 2nd place.

[StearnsFTW]

Wheeler would annoy me. He's pretty clearly behind the other 2 in terms of quality. 25% more quantity doesn't make up for it.

 

It shouldn't annoy you; in terms of Wins Above Replacement Wheeler was the most valuable pitcher in the NL in 2021. As such, he should win the pitching award.

 

Sure, Wheeler is behind Burnes and Scherzer in some of the "counting stats" but he also faced hundreds of more batters this year than either of the other two. Maybe Wheeler loses votes for being on a non-playoff team but that speaks nothing to the quality performance he put up in 2021 which is what the award should be based upon.

 

(FWIW, Zach Wheeler leads all players in the NL in WAR regardless of position).

 

The 'stache already did the heavy lifting, but Wheeler does not deserve the Cy Young. Like at all.

[sdcheezhd]

Continuing their run of luck, the Cards now know they won't be facing Scary Max Scherzer in the WC. It may not be Max and if it is he won't be scary. At least he gave us a heads-up. He did pitch well against them a few weeks ago.

 

You know who would be starting a WC game for sure? Corbin Burnes.

 

The NL Wild Card game is scheduled for Wednesday, Oct. 6. Why wouldn't Scherzer be able to go in that one after pitching last night? He's not scheduled to face the Brewers this weekend, unless the Dodgers throw him on Sunday if it a must-win for their division chances.

 

He is making an assumption that Max Scherzer is going to continue not being scary based on a start or two...not that Scherzer won't start the game at all.

 

I wouldn't bet on that.

 

I'm not making the assumption that he won't start but I don't think it's a sure bet he will. His last WC start didn't go so well - he got bailed out in the 8th there too. Anyway, if I'm the Cards I'm feeling a lot better facing him now than I was on the 6th.

[endaround]

Interesting question, but if this was 20+ years ago wouldn't Julio Urias be the front runner for the award?

 

LHP Julio Urias (LAD) 19-3, 3.01 ERA, 179.1 IP, 188K, 1.02 WHIP

 

Brewers are the only thing standing in his way from finishing the year with a 20-3 W/L record.

 

It's crazy that he's not even being mentioned as a candidate for the Award. The World of Baseball has changed. lol

 

Don't even need to go back 20 years. Rick Porcello won in 2016 with a 22-4 record & 4.7 WAR season, while Verlander & his 7.4 WAR (but only a 16-9 record) had to settle for 2nd place.

 

If you really want to note the big change, note how despite having lead the NL most of the season in wins, Kyle Hendricks was never seriously considered a candidate.

[umphrey]

If Scherzer loses the ERA title it’s not so easy to make a case for him. Does he have anything over Burnes besides about 10 IP and 4 wins?

 

Honestly I think he wins it anyway

[CheeseheadInQC]

Don't even need to go back 20 years. Rick Porcello won in 2016 with a 22-4 record & 4.7 WAR season, while Verlander & his 7.4 WAR (but only a 16-9 record) had to settle for 2nd place.

It was a lot closer than that by every measure except Baseball Reference WAR. Fangraphs had Verlander, Sale and Porcello between 5.4 and 5.1. Verlander had a slightly better ERA, Porcello had a slightly better FIP. Verlander struck out more but Porcello led the league in K/BB thanks to a low walk rate. I still probably would have leaned Verlander, but I never viewed that one as particularly awful.

 

Back to this year, Urias could factor in, though, as a spoiler if he denies Burnes the sabermetric triple crown, which would be a nice feather in Burnes’ cap.

[pitchleague]

I honestly don't know why there's even a discussion any further. Unless Corbin Burnes blows his last start, he's the NL Cy Young winner going away, or should be. If the voters pick somebody else, they're uninformed. Max Scherzer and Zack Wheeler have had great seasons. But Burnes has been better. And that's not debatable.

 

The innings thing? That would look great as the justification for Corbin Burnes being robbed of the Cy Young, because of a 2 week stint in COVID protocols that took him out of of 2-3 starts.

 

 

All these other stats, wins, win-loss %, ERA, ERA+...they are heavily influenced by the team around the pitcher. They're next to useless here. The Cy Young is supposed to go to the best pitcher. How could you possibly determine that unless you eliminate the variables that may skew the statistical metrics considered?

 

Brandon Woodruff's 166 ERA+ is second best in the Majors. He's got a 9-10 record.

 

FIP virtually eliminates the variables that are team defense, and run support.

 

A good pitcher like Woodruff can get crap run support, and even though he's pitched at an elite level, he still has a losing record.

 

Meanwhile, take a guy like Pete Vuckovich, who in 1982 had a 114 ERA+, a 4.03 FIP, a 1.502 WHIP, and his strikeout to walk ratio was almost 1:1. 105 K, 102 BB. Yet, he clearly won the Cy Young because he was 18-6, and his .750 winning percentage was the best in baseball. He won not because of how he pitched, but because he had the Brewers offense behind him, which was by far the best in baseball, scoring 5.47 RPG. The next best team was the California Angels at 5.02.

 

FIP only considers walks, strikeouts, home runs and hit batters. Beyond the rare inside the park home run (statistically negligible where FIP is concerned), and the impact pitch framing has on walks and strikeouts, 99% of FIP is pitcher performance driven.

 

MLB FIP leaders, as of 9/30/31

 

1. Corbin Burnes, 1.55

2. Zack Wheeler, 2.58

3. Nathan Eovaldi (BOS), 2.78

4. Gerrit Cole (NYY), 2.91

5. Brandon Woodruff, 2.95

6. Max Scherzer, 2.97

 

If FIP is referred to as expected ERA, the race for the trophy is over.

Burnes 1.55

Wheeler 2.58

Scherzer 2.97

 

Again, why is this even being debated? Get rid of all the other crap, things like WAR which are impacted by wins, win/loss record. ERA, which can skyrocket if your defense stinks. Or, it can be made to look better than the pitcher's actual performance by an elite defense.

 

Take Jim Palmer in the early 1970s. I've seen one group after another debate who the best pitcher of that decadewas. Many argue Palmer. I think it's Tom Seaver. Palmer's had two top 5 finishes in FIP in his career. Among all Hall of Fame starting pitchers with 150 or more starts in the Live Ball Era (1920-present), 47 in total, Palmer ranks 32nd in FIP. 70% of his career innings came in the 1970s. In the decade itself? 90 pitchers had 150 or more starts between 1970 and 1979. Palmer's FIP of 3.29 was 21st of 90 pitchers. Yet, he had the most wins (186), the best ERA (2.58) and second best ERA+ (137) behind Tom Seaver's 138.

 

Clearly, having Mark Belanger at shortstop, Brooks Robinson at third, Davey Johnson then Bobby Grich at second, and Paul Blair in center, five men who combined to win 39 Gold Gloves while in Baltimore, made Palmer look better than he should have. Given the choice, Tom Seaver was by far the more effective pitcher. His 2.65 FIP was the best in the 1970s. He didn't need his defense to do the work for him.

 

Corbin Burnes has been better than Scherzer and Wheeler. I don't care that they have 15 and 14 wins, to Burnes 11. Burnes has had five other starts of 6 or more IP, and 2 or fewer ER allowed, and got a no decision.

 

And his losses? In his four losses, the Brewers got shut out three times. And the fourth game, they scored 1 run. Burnes had a 4.03 ERA in those games, but he pitched better than that number shows. In 22 1/3 IP, he gave up 10 earned runs. But he only walked 4 batters, and gave up 16 hits. And 1 home run.

 

That's a 0.897 WHIP (20 H + BB / 22.3 IP)

He struck out 36 batters. That's a 9:1 SO/BB ratio.

And he struck out 14.53/9 IP

 

Clearly he pitched at a high level. The rest of the team just stunk. And the Brewers gave him 1 run of support in 4 games.

 

 

I don’t have much to add but I do want to say thank you for the well-written post. And the paragraphs made it so much easier to read. There are so many posts here on the site that are probably very well-written, too. But I skip so many of them because they are just one giant lump of text with no paragraph structure. They are just so hard to read!!

 

So, thank you! And your post was excellent and very informative.

[OldHeidelberg]

It certainly adds some drama to tomorrow nights game, and it's not like we are playing the Pirates. A bit of a pressure game for Burnes can't hurt either, even if it is more of a personal achievement type thing. The odds sure seem to swing on ERA, it was Buehler, Buehler, Buehler for what seemed like weeks and suddenly he got shelled and all the talk moved toward Scherzer.

[markedman5]

It certainly adds some drama to tomorrow nights game, and it's not like we are playing the Pirates. A bit of a pressure game for Burnes can't hurt either, even if it is more of a personal achievement type thing. The odds sure seem to swing on ERA, it was Buehler, Buehler, Buehler for what seemed like weeks and suddenly he got shelled and all the talk moved toward Scherzer.

 

Burnes is pitching Saturday not tomorrow.

[TURBO]

I don’t have much to add but I do want to say thank you for the well-written post. And the paragraphs made it so much easier to read. There are so many posts here on the site that are probably very well-written, too. But I skip so many of them because they are just one giant lump of text with no paragraph structure. They are just so hard to read!!

 

 

100% this!

[TURBO]

It certainly adds some drama to tomorrow nights game, and it's not like we are playing the Pirates. A bit of a pressure game for Burnes can't hurt either, even if it is more of a personal achievement type thing. The odds sure seem to swing on ERA, it was Buehler, Buehler, Buehler for what seemed like weeks and suddenly he got shelled and all the talk moved toward Scherzer.

 

LA, LA, LA, WEST COAST, WEST COAST, LA, LA, LA.

 

This is what the voters see, and that is what they will see when it comes time to vote.

 

Burnes needs to have an excellent outing next time up so the voters can see what he does against their damn west coast team.

 

Imagine if he goes 6 strong, no runs, 9 ks? Doubtful he goes 6 no matter how well he is doing to be honest.

 

It will take a good showing against the freaking Dodgers for the voters to maybe take notice.

[OldHeidelberg]

It certainly adds some drama to tomorrow nights game, and it's not like we are playing the Pirates. A bit of a pressure game for Burnes can't hurt either, even if it is more of a personal achievement type thing. The odds sure seem to swing on ERA, it was Buehler, Buehler, Buehler for what seemed like weeks and suddenly he got shelled and all the talk moved toward Scherzer.

 

Burnes is pitching Saturday not tomorrow.

 

Thanks, I am reminded for like the 10th time this season you can’t track the Brewers rotation in your head.