NL CY Young Race

[MrTPlush]

I think the predominant narrative at this point is Scherzer is #1 and Burnes is #2. I don't see any way it shakes out some other way. We're gonna have the division wrapped by Burnes next start, so there's no reason for him to throw more than 4-5 innings, other than to make sure we don't burn the bullpen, but even then, pretty big gap between end of season and the playoffs. I just don't see anything he can do to bridge the (perceived) gap at this point.

So now that Scherzer is a candidate the innings pitched thing doesn't matter any more?

 

It’s because those two have gone way ahead of the pack, nothing more than that. The competition is between two low inning guys.

 

Though I won’t be surprised if Burnes doesn’t even end up #2 in the end.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I think the predominant narrative at this point is Scherzer is #1 and Burnes is #2. I don't see any way it shakes out some other way. We're gonna have the division wrapped by Burnes next start, so there's no reason for him to throw more than 4-5 innings, other than to make sure we don't burn the bullpen, but even then, pretty big gap between end of season and the playoffs. I just don't see anything he can do to bridge the (perceived) gap at this point.

So now that Scherzer is a candidate the innings pitched thing doesn't matter any more?

 

 

I have honestly never been in the IP doesn't matter camp. I personally feel (don't even "feel", the stats bear out) that Burnes deserves the W. I said the *narrative* will bear out that Scherzer is going to win. He's a bigger name, playing in LA, and he's been utterly ridiculous in the 2nd half. Those are what voters look at. Not fip, xfip, and those sorts of things. I said before, ERA is what happened. Fip, while a super useful predictive tool that helps you evaluate how a player performed and will possibly perform going forward, isn't a stat that tells you results. I don't know how much CY voters are going to lean into something like that.

 

My belief, and I'm not saying (can't be more clear) is that Scherzer will win, though I think Burnes deserves it. Scherzer isn't an underserving winner. Just think Burnes has had a better season.

[82brewcrew82]

I think the predominant narrative at this point is Scherzer is #1 and Burnes is #2. I don't see any way it shakes out some other way. We're gonna have the division wrapped by Burnes next start, so there's no reason for him to throw more than 4-5 innings, other than to make sure we don't burn the bullpen, but even then, pretty big gap between end of season and the playoffs. I just don't see anything he can do to bridge the (perceived) gap at this point.

So now that Scherzer is a candidate the innings pitched thing doesn't matter any more?

 

 

I have honestly never been in the IP doesn't matter camp. I personally feel (don't even "feel", the stats bear out) that Burnes deserves the W. I said the *narrative* will bear out that Scherzer is going to win. He's a bigger name, playing in LA, and he's been utterly ridiculous in the 2nd half. Those are what voters look at. Not fip, xfip, and those sorts of things. I said before, ERA is what happened. Fip, while a super useful predictive tool that helps you evaluate how a player performed and will possibly perform going forward, isn't a stat that tells you results. I don't know how much CY voters are going to lean into something like that.

 

My belief, and I'm not saying (can't be more clear) is that Scherzer will win, though I think Burnes deserves it. Scherzer isn't an underserving winner. Just think Burnes has had a better season.

Sorry, that was more commentary than a question directed at you. I get it and agree with your assessment.

[OldHeidelberg]

I don't think it is over, the ERA title is still up for grabs and that would give Burnes a traditional stat to hang his hat on. Also, Scherzer getting tagged with a loss and the Dodgers not winning the west could still factor in. Scherzer it definitely the front runner though, it's going to be tough to overcome the fact that guys are going to want to reward an all time great with another trophy. But the ERA title would still be pretty cool to me so I am hoping Burnes can grab that.

 

As for innings I think Wheeler may be closer to the top 2 than we expect right now.

[DHonks]

I’d like Burnes, Woodruff, or Hader Since I took all of them in March in Vegas. I think the best case scenario is Hader because it produces a huge payout

[phnxcrew]

The stats don’t lie, and they say max has been almost as good

As Corbin since coming to the dodgers. It wasn’t even close before that. If it were forward thinking analytical voters voting, Corbin would definitely win. It’ll be an interesting tell as to how far advanced metrics are respected with this cy young vote. Overall, I could see Corbin getting better next year and going forward. He’s ready for the bright lights.

[brewerfan82]

Updated through Burnes' nice start last night:

 

[DHonks]

ESPN’s predictor has Hader currently in 3rd place

[endaround]

Hader has been a monster. And his FIP is above Burnes.

[sveumrules]

Updated composite WAR leaderboard heading into the last week...

 

Burnes: 6.5 rWAR | 7.6 fWAR | 7.05 cWAR

Wheeler: 6.4 rWAR | 6.9 fWAR | 6.65 cWAR

Scherzer: 7.1 rWAR | 5.5 fWAR | 6.3 cWAR

Buehler: 6.6 rWAR | 4.9 fWAR | 5.75 cWAR

Woodruff: 6.3 rWAR | 4.8 fWAR | 5.55 cWAR

 

Win Probability Added leaderboard looks like this...

 

Hader: +4.88

Scherzer: +4.59

Woodruff: +3.62

Ranger Suarez: +3.51

Burnes: +3.45

 

If I had a ballot it would be Burnes, Wheeler, Scherzer, Woodruff, Hader

[MrTPlush]

ESPN’s predictor has Hader currently in 3rd place

 

That thing is absolutely dumb and worthless to who will actually win though. Here are the last 4 NL Cy Youngs and where they ranked in the ESPN thing:

 

Bauer - 7th

DeGrom - Unranked

DeGrom - 5th

Scherzer - 3rd

 

I am guessing if you compared ESPN's Top 10 to the actual voting in those years it would be about as accurate as a draft prediction. Oddly it used to be pretty good at showing the winner back in Pre-2016 times...but the overall rankings still sucked. This years rankings look like they are going to continue the recent trend of terrible accuracy.

 

Guessing there is a good chance Hader doesn't get a single vote. There are usually around 10 different guys to get votes and there are already 3 Brewers alone that might get a vote over him. A lot of pretty good starters as is, going to be tough for a reliever to get attention.

 

EDIT: I am guessing the shaky accuracy of recent years is due to it weighing Wins/Losses into the equation. Something that has certainly become much less important in voting over the year.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Both with one start to go...

 

Wins

Burnes

11

Scherzer

14

 

IP

Burnes

165

Scherzer

174

 

ERA

Burnes

2.29

Scherzer

2.28

 

FIP

Burnes

1.56

Scherzer

2.86

 

xFIP

Burnes

2.29

Scherzer

2.39

 

K%

Burnes

35.5

Scherzer

34.8

 

B%

Burnes

5.1

Scherzer

5.4

 

HR/9

Burnes

0.33

Scherzer

1.09

 

BABIP

Burnes

0.308

Scherzer

0.237

 

fWAR

Burnes

7.6

Scherzer

5.5

 

bWAR

Burnes

5.7

Scherzer

6.3

 

My scorecard shows Burnes 6 Scherzer 5.

Will the NL CY Young come down to their last regular season starts?

[young guns]

Well, if tonight is any indication, burnes won't have much of a chance to shine. Probably only about 4 innings or 60ish pitches.

[brewcrewdue80]

Well, if tonight is any indication, burnes won't have much of a chance to shine. Probably only about 4 innings or 60ish pitches.

 

Or a Counsell genius decision to hold back Woodruff so some voters choose Burnes over him when Burnes goes another 7-8IP gem.

[markedman5]

I'm not sure of many things....but I feel confident that Counsell isn't making pitching decisions to try and influence Cy Young voters. Not with a week to go in the season and nothing to play for as far as playoff seeding.

[torts]

I wont be mad if Sherzer wins because he's just ridiculously good right now. i'll be mad if its not close (one way or the other). this shouldnt be an easy decision, and should be close when the vote totals are tallied.

[nate82]

Keith Law came out with his list today. He doesn't have a vote.

 

https://theathletic.com/2854629/2021/09/29/2021-mvps-cy-youngs-and-rookies-of-the-year-keith-laws-picks?source=user-shared-article

 

 

Here is his rankings from the article, he also put Wheeler as the NL MVP.

 

National League Cy Young

1. Zach Wheeler, RHP, Philadelphia

2. Corbin Burnes, RHP, Milwaukee

3. Max Scherzer, RHP, LA Dodgers/Washington

4. Walker Buehler, RHP, LA Dodgers

5. Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Milwaukee

 

 

I think Wheeler is going to steal some 1st and 2nd place votes from Burnes and Scherzer making this a really close race.

[Jopal78]

Zach Wheeler should be the NL Cy Young winner. His numbers are right in line with those Scherzer and Burnes. Yet, Wheeler he has 40 more innings pitched than Scherzer and almost 50 more innings pitched than Burnes. In other words, despite batters having significantly more chances against Wheeler than either Burnes or Scherzer; he was nearly as dominant as those two.

 

Wheeler's stat line:

32 Starts, 213 innings pitched, 14 wins.

ERA 2.78,

FIP of 2.58,

XFIP of 2.83

K% 29.1,

BB% 5.4,

HR/9 0.68,

BABiP .288

WAR of 7.2.

 

Maybe he gets penalized with voters because he's on the also-ran Mets, but he was the best overall pitcher in the NL this year.

[nate82]

Zach Wheeler....

 

Maybe he gets penalized with voters because he's on the also-ran Mets, but he was the best overall pitcher in the NL this year.

 

Wheeler plays for the Phillies now.

[StearnsFTW]

Wheeler would annoy me. He's pretty clearly behind the other 2 in terms of quality. 25% more quantity doesn't make up for it.

[Jopal78]

Wheeler would annoy me. He's pretty clearly behind the other 2 in terms of quality. 25% more quantity doesn't make up for it.

 

It shouldn't annoy you; in terms of Wins Above Replacement Wheeler was the most valuable pitcher in the NL in 2021. As such, he should win the pitching award.

 

Sure, Wheeler is behind Burnes and Scherzer in some of the "counting stats" but he also faced hundreds of more batters this year than either of the other two. Maybe Wheeler loses votes for being on a non-playoff team but that speaks nothing to the quality performance he put up in 2021 which is what the award should be based upon.

 

(FWIW, Zach Wheeler leads all players in the NL in WAR regardless of position).

[brewerfan82]

It shouldn't annoy you; in terms of Wins Above Replacement Wheeler was the most valuable pitcher in the NL in 2021. As such, he should win the pitching award.

Just to clarify, that's according to baseball-reference's version of WAR, FanGraphs has it as the following:

 

 

That said, while I'm rooting for a Burnes Cy Young, I can definitely see the case for Wheeler. However, I wonder what stats you'd have to add to Burnes' resume in an additional 48.1 IP to equal Wheeler's line. The "ugliness" of that line could make an interesting case one way or the other.

 

Edit: To answer my own question, at least to some extent, I figured out the following stat line would get Burnes to Wheeler's numbers in terms of IP, ER, H, BB, HR, and Ks:

 

48.1 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 3.17 K/9, 2.42 BB/9, 1.86 HR/9

 

So significantly worse than he's been, but the ERA/WHIP numbers aren't entirely implausible either.

[thebruce44]

Wheeler would annoy me. He's pretty clearly behind the other 2 in terms of quality. 25% more quantity doesn't make up for it.

 

It shouldn't annoy you; in terms of Wins Above Replacement Wheeler was the most valuable pitcher in the NL in 2021. As such, he should win the pitching award.

 

Sure, Wheeler is behind Burnes and Scherzer in some of the "counting stats" but he also faced hundreds of more batters this year than either of the other two. Maybe Wheeler loses votes for being on a non-playoff team but that speaks nothing to the quality performance he put up in 2021 which is what the award should be based upon.

 

(FWIW, Zach Wheeler leads all players in the NL in WAR regardless of position).

 

Sorry, but this is just such a flawed argument. First off, are you aware that there is more than one version of WAR? I hope so, since that is what your whole argument hinges on. What makes BFs version of WAR what should decide who wins the Cy Young award?

 

And who is arguing about counting stats, especially since the post you responded to literally pointed to quality over quantity. Most informed fans these days look at K/9 and BB/9, where Wheeler trails Burnes and Scherzer.

 

I would actually prefer to see Wheeler get votes over Scherzer, and honestly, I wont lose any sleep if any one of the 3 wins, but this post seems unnecessarily edgy.

[Eye Black]

Max Scherzer has given up 9 hits and 5 runs (4 earned) through his first 3.2 IP against the Padres so far tonight.

[owbc]

Max Scherzer has given up 9 hits and 5 runs (4 earned) through his first 3.2 IP against the Padres so far tonight.

 

Aannnddd the Padres pull an epic choke job to blow the game. But certainly the race narrowed a bit and given how close the stats are it would be nice to see Burnes finish strong and give the voters a tough choice.