NL CY Young Race

[LouisEly]

And yet the Dodgers are fifth in runs scored and home runs in the majors. Dodger Stadium being a pitchers ballpark has always been overblown.

Having a $300M payroll overcomes a lot of things.

[brewcrewdue80]

Scherzer followed up his his 8 inning, 1 hit shutout performance with a 7 inning two hit shutout performance lastnight, and has not given up an earned run in his last 36.2 innings pitched. I think that will impress the voters more than Burnes's barely quality start.

 

 

Good for him. Hes won a cy young and played for what is it 4 or 5teams thus far in his career?

Burnes began his SP prowess last season. And I stated Burnes had thrown the most pitches ever by him in a game. Did Scherzer also set his highest mark in that 8inning outing? It is good on Scherzer to be putting up 0s for that stretch which I wasn't aware of. You're probably right Scherzer is winning this now on account of this stretch for the Dodgers after being traded to them.

[Lostpawn]

Burhler and Scherzer both have to play Colorado in Denver this week. The Rockies have been fantastic at home. If Scherzer in particular has a mediocre start, I’d think Burnes has a shot. But if Scherzer keeps

pitching the way he has since he went to Los Angeles, I don’t see how he doesn’t win it.

[MrTPlush]

Max Scherzer has earned it. Good for him, incredible year and incredible finish to it. To do what he has done at 36, wow...HOF career.

 

I don't really care that Burnes won't win it. The Brewers have had so much success in recent years I want the WS. Individual awards and postseason appearances just aren't bringin the satisfaction at this point.

[rickh150]

The innings pitched is probably going to get Burnes in the end. If he is throwing 200 innings with similar stats, I think that would put him over the hill.

 

Also, I side more often with overall results than analytic stats in season end awards. More Ks and less walks/hits is more dominant for sure. Yet… I easily favor a SP who pitches 8 innings, 7 hits, 1 ER, and 3 Ks OVER a guy who goes 6 innings, 5 hits, 2 ER, and 12Ks and more weak contact. The 2 extra innings and 1 extra run are a big difference between not using your pen and getting a team win. The first guy was less dominant and probably got by with more “luck”, but he pitched better. That being said, I would probably want the second guy pitching the future Game 1 of my playoff series…. because of the dominance.

 

Fair or not, I side more often than not with the better ERA and IP for end of season awards.

[brewerfan82]

No ones's the clear runaway winner yet. It will be interesting to see how each of these guys finishes off the year, a couple of flubs and it could become clearer.

 

[MrTPlush]

No ones's the clear runaway winner yet. It will be interesting to see how each of these guys finishes off the year, a couple of flubs and it could become clearer.

 

 

I don't follow the rumors and what voters are saying...but I am guessing it is pretty clear cut between one of the guys doing well with lots of innings or the guy with low innings (Scherzer).

 

I would guess Burnes is the odd man out as any voter willing to give a vote to a guy with lower innings will want Scherzer.

 

That being said this could be a real messy year with votes being really scattered...more than usual.

[rickh150]

The 7-4-3-2-1 scoring system could favor Burnes, though. He has separated himself enough with Ks, BBs, HRs, etc. that those favoring pitching analytics would make him a clear #1, thus more 7s. Those that have a more combined view with ERA, IP, and even Ws might split votes among other top guys, giving Burnes a shot…. who knows.

[brewerfan82]

Games featuring the top 6 NL starting pitchers according to fWAR this week:

 

- Tuesday at 6:40pm CT: Cardinals (Lester) @ Brewers (Woodruff)

- Tuesday at 9:10pm CT: Giants (Gausman) @ Padres (TBD)

- Wednesday at 6:05pm CT: Orioles (TBD) @ Phillies (Wheeler)

- Wednesday at 7:40pm CT: Dodgers (Buehler) @ Rockies (Marquez)

- Thursday at 2:10pm CT: Dodgers (Scherzer) @ Rockies (Freeland)

- Friday at 7:10pm CT: Mets (Walker) @ Brewers (Burnes*) *Currently listed as TBD, but I'm assuming he's going that game

 

If the Rockies can put up some runs in Coors, this could get interesting...

[wibadgers23]

So maybe Scherzer has a blow up start at Coors and Burnes pitches a gem against a crappy Mets offense.

[A Swing and A Drive]

 

With 10 days left in the regular MLB season, I think the NL CY Young has realistically come down to a two horse race.

 

Burnes is likely to get two final starts and it seems as though Scherzer will have one start remaining.

 

Let's line up the traditional pitching stats as of September 24, 2021

 

2021 STATISTICS GS IP W L H BB K WHIP ERA

Corbin Burnes 26 158 10 4 116 32 221 0.94 2.33

 

Max Scherzer 29 174 15 4 108 36 232 0.83 2.28

 

Their stats are nearly identical across the board. Max is likely to end the regular season with about 10 more IP, plus a few more wins and strikeouts. One x factor could also be that if the Giants and Dodgers end regular seasons tied for division lead, then Max could pitch in game 163, which would count toward regular season stats.

 

Most online betting sportsbooks have Max as the favorite as of today

 

Schezer -210

Burnes +200

 

Some other tidbits on each candidate:

 

Max Scherzer

- Has pitched for two different NL teams this season- Nationals and Dodgers- Only other CY Winner to ever do this was Rick Sutcliffe in 1984.

- Scherzer has been dominate as a Dodger in August and September

- Scherzer has won 3 CY Young awards- 2 as National and 1 as a Tiger

- Teammate Walker Buehler is a legitimate candidate as well and Julio Urias should also finish top 10 in voting.

 

Corbin Burnes

- Started the season with a record 58 IP before issuing a walk

- In August, Burnes struck out 10 consecutive batters to tie MLB record

- On September 11, 2021 Burnes pitched 8 inning of a combined no-hitter with teammate Josh Hader, the franchises first in 34 years.

- Teammates Woodruff and Peralta will likely each finish in top 10 NL CY Voting as well.

- Burnes has never won a CY Young Award but would clearly be the Brewers MVP for the season as well. He also started All-Star game for NL.

 

I really think the if Burnes has two(2) more 6+ inning gems in him to close out the regular season, he has a real shot at winning the award.

 

What are your thoughts?

[MrTPlush]

The voters see a name next to the stats. Burnes is going to lose that race 10/10 times to a guy like Max Scherzer. This would be an intense race if it was decided by computers. I think the human element make this a very hard race for Burnes to win.

 

Scherzer has just closed the gap way too much and now leads most basic stats. While you can argue for Burnes with deeper stats like FIP, K/9, etc. that just is not going to win this award with a bunch of old dudes casting the votes.

 

Can the voting end up a tie if they fell a certain way? That is how it should go. I am betting Burnes loses by a decent margin because he will get tacked with way more lower ranked votes and Scherzer will be essentially all first or second place votes.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The voters see a name next to the stats. Burnes is going to lose that race 10/10 times to a guy like Max Scherzer. This would be an intense race if it was decided by computers. I think the human element make this a very hard race for Burnes to win.

 

Scherzer has just closed the gap way too much and now leads most basic stats. While you can argue for Burnes with deeper stats like FIP, K/9, etc. that just is not going to win this award with a bunch of old dudes casting the votes.

 

Can the voting end up a tie if they fell a certain way? That is how it should go. I am betting Burnes loses by a decent margin because he will get tacked with way more lower ranked votes and Scherzer will be essentially all first or second place votes.

 

Yep. Scherzer is going to win it. Going away. He could give up 12 runs in his last start and still win it. Because both "OMG Dodgerrsssss" and his track record. If Burnes had counting stats that were sizably better than Scherzer, then we'd have an argument. But they are pretty much neck-and-neck on every category.

[jerichoholicninja]

Don't discount voters holding it against Corbin that he missed games due to COVID and not being vaccinated.

[Underachiever]

Very small detail on this point:

"- Has pitched for two different NL teams this season- Nationals and Dodgers- Only other CY Winner to ever do this was Rick Sutcliffe in 1984."

 

What makes Sutcliffe's season more remarkable was that he didn't pitch for two NL teams; he switched leagues when he was traded from Cleveland (in June), and went 16-2 for the Cubs. This is probably obvious, but if Scherzer had switched leagues, he wouldn't be in the running for NL Cy Young.

[LouisEly]

Scherzer picked the right season to have a .237 BABIP

[wibadgers23]

Burnes didn’t even have his A+ stuff tonight and he still went 7 IP with 9 strikeouts and one ER. Just an unbelievable season for him.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I think the predominant narrative at this point is Scherzer is #1 and Burnes is #2. I don't see any way it shakes out some other way. We're gonna have the division wrapped by Burnes next start, so there's no reason for him to throw more than 4-5 innings, other than to make sure we don't burn the bullpen, but even then, pretty big gap between end of season and the playoffs. I just don't see anything he can do to bridge the (perceived) gap at this point.

[SRB]

It clearly should be either Corbin Burnes or (if you are an "old school" voter) Zack Wheeler. Cannot believe that even people on this forum are acting like Scherzer is a legitimate pick.

[sveumrules]

Scherzer is currently leading all of MLB in runs allowed based WAR, how is he not a legitimate pick?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=3,d

[DuWayne Steurer]

It clearly should be either Corbin Burnes or (if you are an "old school" voter) Zack Wheeler. Cannot believe that even people on this forum are acting like Scherzer is a legitimate pick.

 

 

Scherzer has made a very legit case. If you disagree, that's cool.

[The stache]

Scherzer has had a fantastic season, overall, but for the first 2/3 of his year, he was fairly average. 19 starts, across 111 innings pitched, he gave up 18 home runs while in Washington, and had a 3.60 FIP. Then suddenly, he gets traded to the best team in baseball, and he starts pitching like Cy Young.

 

Scherzer is 7-0 in 10 starts with the Dodgers. That puts him to 15-4, with a 2.28 ERA, 232 K and 36 BB in 174 IP. He leads the Majors in ERA, WHIP, and H/9 IP.

 

Burnes is 11-4 wih a 2.29 ERA, with 230 K and 33 BB in 165 IP. He leads the Majors in ERA+ (186), HR/9 IP (0.3), K/9 IP (12.5), K/BB (6.97), and most important to me, FIP (1.56).

 

Scherzer's 2.86 FIP, held up against Burnes 1.56, is the story, to me. Burnes has been more responsible for his own success. 21 home runs given up by Scherzer, to 6 by Burnes, should be the ball game.

 

WAR?

Baseball Reference 5.5 for Scherzer, 5.9 for Burnes.

Fangraphs 5.5 for Scherzer, 7.6 for Burnes.

Baseball Prospectus (WARP) 4.6 for Scherzer, 5.1 for Burnes.

 

Baseball Prospectus' CFIP (contextualized FIP, 100 is average, lower is better, higheris worse)

Burnes 55

Scherzer 76

 

Baseball Prospectus DRA- (deserved run average -; 100 is average, the lower the score, the better).

Burnes 59

Scherzer 70

 

Burnes is 41% better than league average at preventing runs from scoring; Scherzer is 30% better. To put that in perspective, the best pitcher in baseball in DRA- is Jacob de Grom at 54. But he only made 15 starts to Burnes' 26, and will not qualify for the ERA title.

 

Burnes, across a whole season, has pitched at a level comparable to Jacob de Grom where run prevention is concerned. I don't think any of us disagree that de Grom would have won it, had he pitched an entire season, or at the least, would have been a finalist. We can't know how he would have performed with 10+ more starts. One bad start could have skewed his figures.

 

As of right now, Corbin Burnes should win the Cy Young.

[The stache]

To put this whole discussion in a historical context, here are the best individual season FIP metrics in the 146 year history of Major League Baseball:

 

1. Christy Mathewson, 1.287 (1908)

2. Walter Johnson, 1.379 (1910)

3. Pedro Martinez, 1.396 (1999)

4. Ed Walsh, 1.418 (1908)

5. Rube Waddell, 1.506 (1908)

6. Cy Young, 1.522 (1908)

7. Corbin Burnes, 1.559 (2021)

 

The next best Live Ball Era entry

 

16. Dwight Gooden, 1.685 (1984)

 

Only Pedro Martinez' historically great 1999 season, in the entire Live Ball Era, is better than Corbin Burnes' 2021 season, when pitcher determined outcomes are considered.

[82brewcrew82]

I think the predominant narrative at this point is Scherzer is #1 and Burnes is #2. I don't see any way it shakes out some other way. We're gonna have the division wrapped by Burnes next start, so there's no reason for him to throw more than 4-5 innings, other than to make sure we don't burn the bullpen, but even then, pretty big gap between end of season and the playoffs. I just don't see anything he can do to bridge the (perceived) gap at this point.

So now that Scherzer is a candidate the innings pitched thing doesn't matter any more?

[MrTPlush]

Don't discount voters holding it against Corbin that he missed games due to COVID and not being vaccinated.

 

Yup, I mentioned this before. I fully expect there has to be at least one voter that will dock him for that.