NL CY Young Race

[mtrebs]

Both Scherzer and Burnes are too far behind Buehler in innings pitched due to differing reasons for missed or fewer starts to be ahead of him for the Cy Young. I think it's Buehler's to lose unless he gets injured. Wheeler will factor in the voting alot, but I doubt he gets a ton of 1st place votes due to his team's position in the standings.

 

If Burnes isn't in a season long 6 man rotation and maintains the insane rate stats he currently has, he'd be the Cy Young favorite even with two-ish missed starts due to COVID because of where his counting stats would be right now. However, it's also very fair to have the view that the 6 man rotation is a key reason why Burnes has been so dominant with the extra rest - that likely factors against him winning an award that's essentially a counting stats/season-long sort of award, but also probably helps him be a better pitcher in the postseason than had we rode him for 225IP before the calendar even sniffed reaching October. The difference between Burnes and Buehler's rate stats isn't significant enough to offset the extra quality innings pitched Buehler has in 2021 for this award, IMO, and Scherzer is likely to to get more votes than Burnes due to the markets he pitches in/name recognition/etc...

 

Yeah, who knows how things will work out, but if the extra rest means that our starters are stronger in the playoffs, I'll gladly take better odds of World Series trophy over better odds for a Cy Young award.

 

But why can't you have both?

[SRB]

[sveumrules]

National League Win Probability Added leaders...

 

Scherzer +4.43

HADER +4.43

Woodruff +3.49

Buehler +3.39

Burnes +3.12

Wheeler +3.10

[CheeseheadInQC]

I'd have a hard time giving it to Buehler right now. Pretty much every rate stat, if you rank the four favorites, he is third or fourth. He strikes out the fewest and walks the most. He is third in ERA, third in WHIP, fourth in FIP, fourth in xFIP, fourth in hard hit percentage, third in exit velocity, third in HR/9. Unless the only two things you look at are ERA and innings pitched, it is tough to justify giving it to him. If you place a high value on innings pitched, at this point just give it to Wheeler.

 

By the way, Burnes in the only one of the four who wasn't last in any of those categories. I don't believe he is even third in any of them.

[markedman5]

Part of the dreamer in me is hoping we can extend Burnes.....if he wins the Cy Young that makes it more expensive to do so.....So although I'd love for him to win it......I'm ok if he finishes 2nd or 3rd.

[KeithStone53151]

 

The gamblers seem to think 3 guys are varying degrees of frontrunners for the CY Young at this point...

[young guns]

https://www.theringer.com/platform/amp/mlb/2021/9/17/22678919/corbin-burnes-milwaukee-brewers-sabermetric-pitching-triple-crown

 

In addition to talking about the sabermetric triple crown, also endorses him for winning the Cy young.

[PinaMadness]

I don't see any way Scherzer doesn't win it this year after Burnes performance tonight. It's over.

[wibadgers23]

I don't see any way Scherzer doesn't win it this year after Burnes performance tonight. It's over.

 

I agree, unfortunately. When the race is as tight as it is, even a mildly “bad” start will push you back a bit.

[roadcrew3]

He struck out 11 while only giving up 3ER. He certainly labored more than usual but the headline numbers are still good and that matters for voters who aren’t watching each game

[AdvantageSchneider]

Are we shutting down Burnes after tonight? I assume he's going to get at two more starts. Still time to pad the resume.

[SRB]

I'll be genuinely outraged if Scherzer wins over Burnes. I would disagree but at least understand if voters docked Burnes for having fewer innings than Wheeler/Buehler, but Scherzer and Burnes have thrown similar innings and Burnes has been significantly better in every way other than ERA/Wins (and even then it is close).

[timpep]

I'll be genuinely outraged if Scherzer wins over Burnes. I would disagree but at least understand if voters docked Burnes for having fewer innings than Wheeler/Buehler, but Scherzer and Burnes have thrown similar innings and Burnes has been significantly better in every way other than ERA/Wins (and even then it is close).

 

Burnes is the FIP king. Scherzer is the king of the on field results. I really hope Burnes wins but I can't be super outraged if the guy who gives up the fewest runs and base runners wins the award.

[sveumrules]

Burnes still barely leading in composite WAR (50/50 split of runs allowed & FIP based WAR)...

 

Corbin: 6.1 rWAR | 7.2 fWAR | 6.65 cWAR

Scherzer: 7.5 rWAR | 5.5 fWAR | 6.5 cWAR

Wheeler: 6.0 rWAR | 6.6 fWAR | 6.3 cWAR

Buehler: 6.9 rWAR | 4.8 fWAR | 5.85 cWAR

 

I wouldn't have an issue with Scherzer winning. Pretty impressive that he has given up 14 more HR than Corbin but still has an ERA a quarter run lower.

[brewcrewdue80]

They can settle this on the field in game 1 of final series vs Dodgers.

But to the thoughts Burnes lost the CY Young on a 6IP 3ER quality start with 11ks is really stretching. Like understand he had 8 no-hit innings in his previous start, throwing the most pitches he'd ever thrown. Let's see what he does for his next start, where its on a normal rest without the added stress from the game before.

[PinaMadness]

Scherzer followed up his his 8 inning, 1 hit shutout performance with a 7 inning two hit shutout performance lastnight, and has not given up an earned run in his last 36.2 innings pitched. I think that will impress the voters more than Burnes's barely quality start.

[SRB]

Unbelievable that people are still relying on ERA in the year 2021.

 

Scherzer pitches in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the NL, Burnes pitches in one of the most hitter-friendly parks.

 

Might as well give it to Julio Urias for having the most Wins. Sad that we are moving backwards on stuff like this.

[sveumrules]

Unbelievable that people are still relying on ERA in the year 2021. And not even park adjusted ERA!

 

Scherzer pitches in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the NL, Burnes pitches in one of the most hitter-friendly parks.

 

Even accounting for home stadiums Scherzer leads in both ERA+ (195 to 181) and ERA- (49 to 56).

[SRB]

Unbelievable that people are still relying on ERA in the year 2021. And not even park adjusted ERA!

 

Scherzer pitches in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the NL, Burnes pitches in one of the most hitter-friendly parks.

 

Even accounting for home stadiums Scherzer leads in both ERA+ (195 to 181) and ERA- (49 to 56).

 

Yes, and suggesting that a minimal gap like that should overcome the massive difference in actual pitching performance is absurd. People are buying into name-brand, big-market media bias to even suggest that Scherzer win.

 

Should Kyle Hendricks have won in 2016? Did he have a season basically on par with 1999 Pedro Martinez? Give me a break.

[PinaMadness]

Unbelievable that people are still relying on ERA in the year 2021.

 

Scherzer pitches in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the NL, Burnes pitches in one of the most hitter-friendly parks.

 

Might as well give it to Julio Urias for having the most Wins. Sad that we are moving backwards on stuff like this.

Oh, so you're one of those edgy analytics guys. Got it.

 

And yet the Dodgers are fifth in runs scored and home runs in the majors. Dodger Stadium being a pitchers ballpark has always been overblown.

[markedman5]

They are both deserving……..no reason to be outraged if either of them wins.

[sveumrules]

Unbelievable that people are still relying on ERA in the year 2021. And not even park adjusted ERA!

 

Scherzer pitches in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the NL, Burnes pitches in one of the most hitter-friendly parks.

 

Even accounting for home stadiums Scherzer leads in both ERA+ (195 to 181) and ERA- (49 to 56).

 

Yes, and suggesting that a minimal gap like that should overcome the massive difference in actual pitching performance is absurd. People are buying into name-brand, big-market media bias to even suggest that Scherzer win.

 

Should Kyle Hendricks have won in 2016? Did he have a season basically on par with 1999 Pedro Martinez? Give me a break.

 

I don't think it's absurd at all. Both are deserving candidates. Ten years ago Burnes probably would have finished 4th because writers didn't know what FIP was & thought Voros McCracken was a character on Star Trek: Next Generation or something. That he even has a chance is the result of massive progress in how pitcher performance is evaluated.

 

I wouldn't have put Kyle Hendricks 1st on my ballot in 2016 & he finished 3rd. Looks like the writers got that one right. Scherzer also threw 38 more IP than Hendricks in 2016 so it appears voters also valued his additional quantity.

 

It's amazing that Burnes has even been in the neighborhood of 1999 Pedro on a per inning basis, but Martinez threw 213 innings notching 10.0 rWAR & 11.6 fWAR, so even if he's basically been on par he's still going to come up 3-4 WAR short of peak Pedro.

[Eye Black]

Scherzer pitches in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the NL, Burnes pitches in one of the most hitter-friendly parks.

Burnes pitches in one of the most home run friendly parks, but not exactly hitter friendly the past several years. Even with all of the home runs the park has played slightly below average overall offensively the past few years. That being said, Burnes significantly limiting home runs this season has been impressive.

[PeaveyFury]

Oh, so you're one of those edgy analytics guys. Got it.

 

Like the guys that run the Brewers? Not sure what was meant by this?

[DuWayne Steurer]

The Cy Young is given to the "best" pitcher. I guess that's a pretty subjective. If we just wanna give it to the guy with the best xfip or xwar, then why have voters?

 

ERA tells you what happened. fip or xfip or ERA+ tells you how good the guy pitched. Those two things can, and often are, mutually exclusive. No specific criteria is placed upon the voters to decide what stats to use.

 

A better ERA doesn't mean a guy is a better pitcher, but in a results oriented industry, I wouldn't be upset that voters who are chosen to vote on an award recipient use result-based statistics to distribute the award.

 

I hope Burnes wins. I think he deserves to win. I'm not gonna be mad if he doesn't.