NL CY Young Race

[Fear The Chorizo]

Where Corbin Burnes now ranks in baseball among qualified pitchers:

 

fWAR: 1st (7.1)

ERA: 1st (2.25)

FIP: 1st (1.50)

xERA: 1st (1.89)

xFIP: 1st (2.30)

SIERA: 1st (2.59)

K-BB%: 1st (30.5)

HR/9: 1st (0.30)

Barrel rate: 1st (2.6)

K%: 1st-t (35.4)

 

This race should be over, but more likely the no-hitter moves him into a dead heat with Buehler.

 

You forgot to add IP, which burnes ranks 32nd...Wheeler and Buehler rank 1st and 2nd in that category. That's going to make a difference at seasons end for cy young voters no matter what we as Brewer fans want it not to.

[timpep]

 

You forgot to add IP, which burnes ranks 32nd...Wheeler and Buehler rank 1st and 2nd in that category. That's going to make a difference at seasons end for cy young voters no matter what we as Brewer fans want it not to.

 

This isn't something a lot of people here are taking into consideration but it's what will likely keep Burnes from winning.

 

Burnes is about 40 innings behind Wheeler, that's a lot of innings. I mean, nobody is talking about deGrom anymore obviously but his numbers are more insane than Burnes, he's just 50 innings behind.

 

I know Burnes leads in fWAR but, I just kind of don't like fWAR for deciding who pitched better in a given year. It might not be fair but I think actual results should matter more (bWAR) for on field awards than theoretically deserved (fWAR) results.

 

I hope Burnes wins but I don't expect it and wouldn't even think it was a snub if he finished top 3.

[sveumrules]

7.1 fWAR is insane.

 

It really is. Especially over only 152 innings. Check out 2020-21 Corbin vs 2004 Sheets vs 1988 Higuera...

 

34 GS | 199 IP | 2.13 ERA | 0.93 WHIP | 280 K | 45 BB | 6 HR | 8.3 rWAR | 9.4 fWAR

34 GS | 237 IP | 2.70 ERA | 0.98 WHIP | 264 K | 32 BB | 25 HR | 7.0 rWAR | 8.0 fWAR

31 GS | 227 IP | 2.45 ERA | 1.00 WHIP | 192 K | 59 BB | 15 HR | 7.9 rWAR | 5.9 fWAR

[82brewcrew82]

Give the trophy to Buehler. Burnes has been the better pitcher and the world knows it.

[sveumrules]

 

You forgot to add IP, which burnes ranks 32nd...Wheeler and Buehler rank 1st and 2nd in that category. That's going to make a difference at seasons end for cy young voters no matter what we as Brewer fans want it not to.

 

This isn't something a lot of people here are taking into consideration but it's what will likely keep Burnes from winning.

 

Burnes is about 40 innings behind Wheeler, that's a lot of innings. I mean, nobody is talking about deGrom anymore obviously but his numbers are more insane than Burnes, he's just 50 innings behind.

 

I know Burnes leads in fWAR but, I just kind of don't like fWAR for deciding who pitched better in a given year. It might not be fair but I think actual results should matter more (bWAR) for on field awards than theoretically deserved (fWAR) results.

 

I hope Burnes wins but I don't expect it and wouldn't even think it was a snub if he finished top 3.

 

Even with the IP defecit FanGraphs has Burnes 3rd in the NL in runs allowed based WAR at 6.1 with only Scherzer (6.3) and Buehler (6.9) ahead of him.

 

Obviously different pitchers exert varying degrees of control over their batted ball results (while they have no real control over the defense behind them) so while ERA might represent actual results, they are actual results that to some degree were still outside the pitcher's immediate control.

 

That's why I like to average the two for a composite WAR...

 

Burnes: 6.1 rWAR | 7.1 fWAR | 6.6 cWAR

Wheeler: 5.8 rWAR | 6.5 fWAR | 6.15 cWAR

Buehler: 6.9 rWAR | 4.6 fWAR | 5.75 cWAR

Scherzer: 6.3 rWAR | 4.7 fWAR | 5.5 cWAR

Woodruff: 5.9 rWAR | 4.1 fWAR | 5.0 cWAR

[MrTPlush]

Corbin Burnes has been babied all year, others have not. It isn't just less innings, it is the fact he has gotten extra rest to stay sharp. You can argue Burnes has still provided more value despite the less innings, a fair argument, but most voters probably won't care too much.

 

His COVID illness could also complicate things. A) not only was he not pitching, but didn't it cause other positive tests around him? If voters assume he wasn't vaccinated they could dock him for hurting his team based on that decision to not be vaccinated. Additionally, if a voter assumes he wasn't vaccinated, and that voter is very pro COVID vaccine, they could dock Burnes for that reason. Not trying to start an argument, just pointing out a potential wrinkle in the voting. I expect the vote might end up pretty close and minor voting decisions could be the deciding factor.

[endaround]

I never really got the Buehler case for Cy Young. It seems to be he lead the ERA race when DeGrom got injured so he's the guy (Burnes didn't qualify at that point so didn't even show up on leader boards). He no longer has the ERA lead, so what is it now? Lowest ERA by a guy who pitches more than 200 innings (assuming he does)? Wheeler is what people think Buehler has been but he has been ignored until his ERA started trending to his FIP. Buehler will likely clear 15 wins but Urias may hit 20 (I really was hoping Hendrickson would get the win title this year to fully kill it, but alas). I'm just not sure what the case is except inertia.

[owbc]

Why should IP matter? Production isn’t measured by IP. They give the Cy Young to relievers sometimes. The award should go to the best pitcher. That’s Burnes and it’s not even close.

[sveumrules]

Why should IP matter? Production isn’t measured by IP. They give the Cy Young to relievers sometimes. The award should go to the best pitcher. That’s Burnes and it’s not even close.

 

When you lead your league in K9, BB9, HR9 & ERA...you might just be the best pitcher in your league.

[timpep]

Why should IP matter? Production isn’t measured by IP. They give the Cy Young to relievers sometimes. The award should go to the best pitcher. That’s Burnes and it’s not even close.

 

DeGrom has been better in every category with 50 fewer innings pitched. Innings definitely matter. Burnes is more deserving that DeGrom imo.

[SoCalBrewfan]

IP are absolutely related to value, the rate stats tell you plenty but the denominator matters as well. That's the whole point of WAR and similar stats. A starter who can put up 180 innings of league average pitching is a very valuable player. Like many things in life, of course, getting clean comparisons is tricky, so voters (and rating systems) have to balance fewer better innings vs more but less successful innings. Or not, I suppose, some would just go with gut feeling or who had the most wins.

[endaround]

Why should IP matter? Production isn’t measured by IP. They give the Cy Young to relievers sometimes. The award should go to the best pitcher. That’s Burnes and it’s not even close.

 

DeGrom has been better in every category with 50 fewer innings pitched. Innings definitely matter. Burnes is more deserving that DeGrom imo.

 

If DeGrom came back in late August and maintained a sub 1.50 ERA he would win even if he finished with 125 innings.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Corbin Burnes has been babied all year, others have not. It isn't just less innings, it is the fact he has gotten extra rest to stay sharp. You can argue Burnes has still provided more value despite the less innings, a fair argument, but most voters probably won't care too much.

 

His COVID illness could also complicate things. A) not only was he not pitching, but didn't it cause other positive tests around him? If voters assume he wasn't vaccinated they could dock him for hurting his team based on that decision to not be vaccinated. Additionally, if a voter assumes he wasn't vaccinated, and that voter is very pro COVID vaccine, they could dock Burnes for that reason. Not trying to start an argument, just pointing out a potential wrinkle in the voting. I expect the vote might end up pretty close and minor voting decisions could be the deciding factor.

 

With all the players and people in society who have been vaccinated testing positive for COVID in the past few months, at some point I hope this line of thinking evaporates based on reality....but whatever.

 

And didn't Burnes' positive test happen much earlier in the season, well before the 5-6 vaccinated brewer players missed time right after the AS break? Either way, I'm hopeful cy young voters don't feel the need to inquire about vaccination status when deciding who to vote for.

[MrTPlush]

Relievers don’t win it anymore, so I don’t understand that argument.

[owbc]

IP are absolutely related to value, the rate stats tell you plenty but the denominator matters as well. That's the whole point of WAR and similar stats. A starter who can put up 180 innings of league average pitching is a very valuable player. Like many things in life, of course, getting clean comparisons is tricky, so voters (and rating systems) have to balance fewer better innings vs more but less successful innings. Or not, I suppose, some would just go with gut feeling or who had the most wins.

 

Absolutely, I’m a huge fan of WAR, it’s the best overall measure of who the best pitcher is. And it accounts for most of the variables that we’re arguing about.

 

And I agree on deGrom, he was going to run away with the award. A couple additional starts would have done it, but he got passed in WAR by Burnes and others.

[SRB]

Corbin Burnes has been babied all year, others have not. It isn't just less innings, it is the fact he has gotten extra rest to stay sharp. You can argue Burnes has still provided more value despite the less innings, a fair argument, but most voters probably won't care too much.

 

He has been "babied all year"? Give me a break. Babied compared to Nolan Ryan fifty years ago? There are no longer any workhorse aces in the league like there were even a few years ago. A couple guys this season are barely going to crack 200 IP, whoopdedoo. If Burnes hadn't missed a couple starts with a positive Covid test he would probable be top 10 in IP right now even with the Brewers periodic 6-man rotation.

[MrTPlush]

I mean, you can sugar coat it all you want, but he is 32nd in just the NL for innings pitched. The other guys are #1 and #2 with dozens more innings pitched.

 

Not sure the point comparing him to Nolan Ryan or pitchers from 10 years ago. Voters are not docking Burnes because he isn’t on pace to pitch 240 innings. It’s because head to head he is a ways behind the other guys.

 

And I’m not really speaking my mind, just pointing out why voters have a problem with his innings pitched. I think Burnes is easily #1, but I don’t get a vote.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Burnes missed 2 "covid" starts, and he averages 6.08 IP per start, so if you throw those 12 innings back in, he'd be 9th or 10th in the league in innings pitched. He's not being babied. He missed 2 starts that was unfortunately unavoidable.

 

If voters choose to hold that against him, that's entirely their prerogative, but he's not being babied or handled lightly.

[Greenleaf1]

I think innings should matter more as a tiebreaker. If two pitchers are somewhat close and one pitcher has thrown 30-40 more innings, then I don't have a problem with the award going to them even if their stats are a little bit worse.

 

I think if Burnes loses, it'll be because not enough weight was given to his peripheral stats which are all clearly the best in baseball this year. If voters just decide to look at ERA and IP, he may lose, but even with Scherzer's recent run of dominance, Burnes leads him in pretty much every metric except ERA and that's pretty close.

 

I'm a homer but I'd vote Burnes as of right now. Still a few starts left though, if Burnes or Scherzer blow up just once that'll be enough to sway the vote.

[homer]

Does anyone care about quality starts? Buehler has had 25 quality starts out of 29 starts. Burnes is 16/25. I realize some of that is manager dependent but worth bringing up as an additional data point.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think Scherzer's performance Sunday might have locked it down. Sure he'll take votes from Buehler and Buehler will take some from him but voters in the East are more familiar with him. He's now leading the NL in ERA and WHIP and just slightly behind Burnes in K's per 9.

 

Burnes needs Scherzer to have a couple rough starts and then he might squeeze in. Wheeler's innings are truly impressive and that does count for something but he might need the Phillies to make the playoffs.

[roadcrew3]

Does Scherzer being traded hurt his candidacy at all? If Cy Young is just the best pitcher then probably not much impact but if voters view any part of the award as the most valuable pitcher, then being traded from one of the worst teams in baseball to one of the best should work against his case right?

[MrTPlush]

Does Scherzer being traded hurt his candidacy at all? If Cy Young is just the best pitcher then probably not much impact but if voters view any part of the award as the most valuable pitcher, then being traded from one of the worst teams in baseball to one of the best should work against his case right?

 

Since he didn't switch leagues, probably not a huge deal.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Both Scherzer and Burnes are too far behind Buehler in innings pitched due to differing reasons for missed or fewer starts to be ahead of him for the Cy Young. I think it's Buehler's to lose unless he gets injured. Wheeler will factor in the voting alot, but I doubt he gets a ton of 1st place votes due to his team's position in the standings.

 

If Burnes isn't in a season long 6 man rotation and maintains the insane rate stats he currently has, he'd be the Cy Young favorite even with two-ish missed starts due to COVID because of where his counting stats would be right now. However, it's also very fair to have the view that the 6 man rotation is a key reason why Burnes has been so dominant with the extra rest - that likely factors against him winning an award that's essentially a counting stats/season-long sort of award, but also probably helps him be a better pitcher in the postseason than had we rode him for 225IP before the calendar even sniffed reaching October. The difference between Burnes and Buehler's rate stats isn't significant enough to offset the extra quality innings pitched Buehler has in 2021 for this award, IMO, and Scherzer is likely to to get more votes than Burnes due to the markets he pitches in/name recognition/etc...

[monty57]

Both Scherzer and Burnes are too far behind Buehler in innings pitched due to differing reasons for missed or fewer starts to be ahead of him for the Cy Young. I think it's Buehler's to lose unless he gets injured. Wheeler will factor in the voting alot, but I doubt he gets a ton of 1st place votes due to his team's position in the standings.

 

If Burnes isn't in a season long 6 man rotation and maintains the insane rate stats he currently has, he'd be the Cy Young favorite even with two-ish missed starts due to COVID because of where his counting stats would be right now. However, it's also very fair to have the view that the 6 man rotation is a key reason why Burnes has been so dominant with the extra rest - that likely factors against him winning an award that's essentially a counting stats/season-long sort of award, but also probably helps him be a better pitcher in the postseason than had we rode him for 225IP before the calendar even sniffed reaching October. The difference between Burnes and Buehler's rate stats isn't significant enough to offset the extra quality innings pitched Buehler has in 2021 for this award, IMO, and Scherzer is likely to to get more votes than Burnes due to the markets he pitches in/name recognition/etc...

 

Yeah, who knows how things will work out, but if the extra rest means that our starters are stronger in the playoffs, I'll gladly take better odds of World Series trophy over better odds for a Cy Young award.