NL CY Young Race

[umphrey]

If you value ratios like walks, strikeouts, HRs you go with Burnes

If you value wins and an extra 20-30 IP then go with Buehler

 

That’s where we are at I think

[KeithStone53151]

5 plus pitches might be a slight exaggeration, I'm not so sure all 5 are plus. That said, Burnes was more or less a FB/SL pitcher as recently as 2019. Occasionally he'd fling up a curve but mostly it was those 2. To go from a 2 pitch launching pad to a legit 5 pitch juggernaut in one offseason is literally insane. Insane credit to both his work ethic and the Brewers for providing the tools/coaching to transform himself so quickly.

 

This is a really good point and the reason why I think they don’t ever spend a lot of money on pitching in the offseason. They feel like they can get guys cheap, get them in that lab down in Arizona and turn them into legitimate pitchers. Just look at Hunter Strickland and the turnaround he’s made.

 

Right agreed. Said guys do have to have the arm talent obviously, Those 2 pitches Burnes primarily threw were electric...it's just that's all he had. Strickland also had a ton of arm talent, he's a bit older but they certainly saw enough to make adjustments and get him to be effective. The Brewers do seem to be above average at identifying/developing pitchers...especially relievers.

[sveumrules]

If you value ratios like walks, strikeouts, HRs you go with Burnes

If you value wins and an extra 20-30 IP then go with Buehler

 

That’s where we are at I think

 

Yeah, its kind of like the Miggy vs Trout MVP race in 2012.

 

By old school measures it would be Buehler in a landslide. Luckily for Burnes we know now that things like Wins & ERA are more team dependent stats than they are individual ones.

 

The "fairest" way might be to give equal weight to both runs allowed based WAR & FIP based WAR to come up with a composite WAR, which would look something like this...

 

Burnes | 5.4 rWAR | 6.3 fWAR | 5.85 cWAR

Buehler | 6.9 rWAR | 4.5 fWAR | 5.7 cWAR

Wheeler | 5.0 rWAR | 5.9 fWAR | 5.45 cWAR

Woodruff | 5.6 rWAR | 4.3 fWAR | 4.95 cWAR

Scherzer | 5.3 rWAR | 3.7 fWAR | 4.5 cWAR

 

Either way both of Burnes & Buehler are more than deserving, just going to come down to what happens over the last month & what the voters ultimately decide matters most to them.

[KeithStone53151]

How gnarly would it be if we had a Burnes vs Buehler playoff matchup? I wonder if that would potentially weigh in at all...

[DuWayne Steurer]

Votes are cast before the playoffs

[rickh150]

Woodruff and Burnes stats…. Tough to decipher who has better now.

[rickh150]

If you value ratios like walks, strikeouts, HRs you go with Burnes

If you value wins and an extra 20-30 IP then go with Buehler

 

That’s where we are at I think

 

Buehler’s ERA is best at 2.07 and has thrown the second most innings. Hard to say he is not the favorite now. Burnes and Woodruff are both right there at #2/3.

[Eye Black]

This is a fun look at Corbin Burnes dominance, including an in-depth look at his lesser discussed offering (curveball), via Ben Clemens with FanGraphs: Corbin’s Hammer

[ecjimg]

Good to see Buehler gave up 6 earned on 7 hits in 3 innings Sunday night. Five of the 7 hits were for extra bases, 3 doubles, a triple and a HR.

[OldHeidelberg]

Good to see Buehler gave up 6 earned on 7 hits in 3 innings Sunday night. Five of the 7 hits were for extra bases, 3 doubles, a triple and a HR.

 

Tightened up the ERA race, here are the top 4(both NL and MLB):

 

Buehler 2.31

Woodruff 2.35

Burnes 2.38

Scherzer 2.40

 

Opportunity for Woody today to grab the lead, in a close race maybe ERA champ gets the nod?

[TURBO]

My guess is that both Scherzer and Buehler would get the nod over Woody and Burnes...

 

Why you ask?

 

LA, that is all that needs to be said.

 

gross.

[homer]

My guess is that both Scherzer and Buehler would get the nod over Woody and Burnes...

 

Why you ask?

 

LA, that is all that needs to be said.

 

gross.

 

What's weird is the NL winner the last 10 years or so certainly looks like big market bias other than last year. AL is totally different with Cleveland and Tampa Bay winning 5 of ten years. AL hasn't had a repeat winner since Pedro Martinez....NL has had three repeaters in the last decade.

 

http://m.mlb.com/awards/history-winners/?award_id=NLCY

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

My guess is that both Scherzer and Buehler would get the nod over Woody and Burnes...

 

Why you ask?

 

LA, that is all that needs to be said.

 

gross.

 

Agreed. Woody and Burnes are likely to steal votes from each other as well. It would very much surprise me if Buehler isn't the winner going away, regardless of if he gets the baby seal treatment the rest of the season. Simply because "OMG Dodgers!!!"

[DuWayne Steurer]

I'd be pretty confident that right now it'd be Buehler, with Burnes a somewhat distant second. We'll see what happens the rest of the way.

 

I'm gonna guess Woodruff slides in somewhere between 5 and 3. I'll also guess Hader gets a handful of points. Might even be top 10.

[wibadgers23]

Corbin Burnes anyone?

[tigerbrew]

 

Milwaukee Brewers

@Brewers

THE SECOND NO HITTER IN FRANCHISE HISTORY!!!

 

 

[brewmann04]

Corbin making a strong run

[sveumrules]

Out of 6,735 individual pitcher seasons in the post-integration era (1947-2021) with at least 140 IP, there have only been a dozen seasons with a FIP below two...

 

1999 Pedro 1.39

2021 Corbin 1.58 (BEFORE TONIGHT!!)

1984 Gooden 1.69

1968 Gibson 1.77

2016 Clayton 1.80

2014 Clayton 1.81

1963 Sandy 1.85

1965 Sandy 1.93

1971 Seaver 1.93

2018 Sale 1.98

2018 deGrom 1.99

2015 Clayton 1.99

 

Walker Buehler is having a perfectly legitimate Cy Young caliber season, but Corbin isn't just among the all the time great seasons, after tonight he might be sitting in the number one spot.

[SRB]

The BBWAA is far from perfect, but haven't they (as a whole) begrudgingly begun to accept advanced metrics in recent years? Even before tonight, Burnes was a full 2.1 fWAR ahead of Buehler. I actually think Wheeler might be the stiffer competition, since he has so many more IP and the Phillies might squeak into the playoffs.

[wibadgers23]

Burnes has given up five homers all season. Five! That is just silly. Not to mention all of the other unbelievable statistics he’s put up.

[sveumrules]

Burnes has given up five homers all season. Five! That is just silly. Not to mention all of the other unbelievable statistics he’s put up.

 

It's insane, especially after 2019.

 

His HR/9 is now at 0.30. Next lowest is Kyle Gibson at 0.68, which makes him closer to Julio Urias in 22nd place at 1.05 than he is to Burnes.

 

His HR/9+, which adjusts for era, is 26. That lands him in the top 10 of those 6,735 individual pitcher seasons with at least 140 IP since 1947.

[Mr Southpaw]

Out of 6,735 individual pitcher seasons in the post-integration era (1947-2021) with at least 140 IP, there have only been a dozen seasons with a FIP below two...

 

1999 Pedro 1.39

2021 Corbin 1.58 (BEFORE TONIGHT!!)

1984 Gooden 1.69

1968 Gibson 1.77

2016 Clayton 1.80

2014 Clayton 1.81

1963 Sandy 1.85

1965 Sandy 1.93

1971 Seaver 1.93

2018 Sale 1.98

2018 deGrom 1.99

2015 Clayton 1.99

 

Walker Buehler is having a perfectly legitimate Cy Young caliber season, but Corbin isn't just among the all the time great seasons, after tonight he might be sitting in the number one spot.

 

After last night 1.50!

[OldHeidelberg]

It is starting to seem like they will have to take a long look at the stats to separate these guys. Do Burnes and Scherzer get eliminated by IP? If not it’s going to be tough to ignore the season Burnes is having, that FIP list above is really impressive. I wonder if they look at the 2 missed starts from COVID and give him a pass on IP.

[owbc]

Where Corbin Burnes now ranks in baseball among qualified pitchers:

 

fWAR: 1st (7.1)

ERA: 1st (2.25)

FIP: 1st (1.50)

xERA: 1st (1.89)

xFIP: 1st (2.30)

SIERA: 1st (2.59)

K-BB%: 1st (30.5)

HR/9: 1st (0.30)

Barrel rate: 1st (2.6)

K%: 1st-t (35.4)

 

This race should be over, but more likely the no-hitter moves him into a dead heat with Buehler.

[PeaveyFury]

7.1 fWAR is insane.