NL CY Young Race

[OldHeidelberg]

One of them would have to go on a great run to overtake these guys but it's still possible. Probably Burnes or Peralta with their gaudy K rates since Woodruff compares more closely to Buehler/Wheeler but lacks the wins to move ahead of them. But as noted the innings of Burnes/Peralta puts them at a disadvantage as well, both barely qualify.

[KeithStone53151]

He struck out 10 in a row on 39 pitches. Incredible. And one ball was touched. Just the craziest thing I've ever seen.

 

I think you have a good point, he's probably the most talented pitcher in the NL...but I don't think he's gotten the clear best results in MLB. Workload certainly should matter in the CY young race.

[bork]

He struck out 10 in a row on 39 pitches. Incredible. And one ball was touched. Just the craziest thing I've ever seen.

 

I was wondering how you have 15 K's and pitch 8 innings, but only throw 99 pitches.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

He struck out 10 in a row on 39 pitches. Incredible. And one ball was touched. Just the craziest thing I've ever seen.

 

I was wondering how you have 15 K's and pitch 8 innings, but only throw 99 pitches.

 

A 4-pitch 1st inning helps.

[StearnsFTW]

He struck out 10 in a row on 39 pitches. Incredible. And one ball was touched. Just the craziest thing I've ever seen.

 

I think you have a good point, he's probably the most talented pitcher in the NL...but I don't think he's gotten the clear best results in MLB. Workload certainly should matter in the CY young race.

 

Agree with everything you say here. He's the most dominant pitcher in baseball in my opinion, but has virtually no shot to win the Cy Young.

[sveumrules]

He struck out 10 in a row on 39 pitches. Incredible. And one ball was touched. Just the craziest thing I've ever seen.

 

I think you have a good point, he's probably the most talented pitcher in the NL...but I don't think he's gotten the clear best results in MLB. Workload certainly should matter in the CY young race.

 

Agree with everything you say here. He's the most dominant pitcher in baseball in my opinion, but has virtually no shot to win the Cy Young.

 

By ERA/ERA- the six contenders are pretty close...

 

Buehler 2.13 ERA (54 ERA-) | Burnes 2.23 ERA (54 ERA-) | Woodruff 2.23 ERA (54 ERA-) | Peralta 2.26 ERA (54 ERA-) | Gausman 2.29 ERA (57 ERA-) | Wheeler 2.52 ERA (59 ERA-)

 

By FIP/FIP- Burnes blows everybody else out of the water...

 

Burnes 1.52 FIP (35 FIP-) | Wheeler 2.42 FIP (55 FIP-) | Woodruff 2.62 FIP (64 FIP-) | Gausman 2.94 FIP (72 FIP-) | Peralta 2.98 FIP (70 FIP-) | Buehler 3.12 FIP (74 FIP-)

 

Have a feeling if the race is still this close at the end of the year most voters will order the Brewers as Woodruff / Burnes / Peralta on their ballots just based on IP.

 

Even as someone who has watched just about every game, it is tough to put them in order. Obviously Woody's the workhorse, but that Burnes FIP is insane deGrom territory stuff, then Freddy is literally the hardest to get a hit off by a similarly large margin with an MLB best .140 average against before getting to Woodruff/Gausman in 2nd at .181.

 

Good problems I guess.

[JohnBriggs12]

Top 5:

 

1. Buehler

 

2. Burnes

 

3. Wheeler

 

4. Peralta

 

5. Woodruff

 

Nothing is locked up at this point. A hot stretch by any of those 5 could be the difference

[sveumrules]

Fueling that massive FIP gap is Burnes transformation on the HR/9 front.

 

Everyone remembers 2019 when Corbin gave up 3.12 HR/9. How bad was that? Since the year 2000 there are 7,893 individual pitcher seasons with at least 40 IP. Corbin's 3.12 was the 7th highest.

 

From 2020-21, there are 135 pitchers with at least 100 IP, with Spencer Turnbull (0.34 HR/9) a fraction ahead of Burnes (0.35 HR/9) then a decent gap until Wheeler (0.52 HR/9) in third before a grouping of guys (Valdez, Marquez, deGrom & Fried) around 0.70-0.73 HR/9.

 

Corbin's HR/9 is literally half of the guys in 4th place.

[IIAY]

For a Brewers fan in their mid-40's like me, it has been nothing short of amazing watching The Big 3 pitch this year. Oh how I have longed for a stable of home-grown aces like Woodruff, Burnes, and Peralta. A little perspective:

 

- Woodruff (5.0), Burnes (4.2), and Peralta (4.0) all currently have a bWAR of 4.0 or higher (with 47 games remaining in the season). Only once (1992) have the Brewers had a staff with 3 pitchers with a bWAR of 4.0 or higher (Wegman 4.8, Navarro 4.6, Eldred 4.2).

 

- As bWAR is a cumulative stat and we still have about 30% of the season to play, I thought I would look at it from a bWAR per start perspective to see how The Big 3 match up. Here are the top-10 all-time in Brewers' history (through 8/11):

 

.300 Eldred 1992 (4.2 bWAR, 14 starts)

.288 Sabathia 2008 (4.9, 17)

.276 Higuera 1986 (9.4, 34)

.241 Caldwell 1978 (8.2, 34 starts)

.239 Higuera 1988 (7.4, 31)

.227 Woodruff 2021 (5.0, 22)

.217 D'Amico 2000 (5.0, 23)

.212 Sheets 2004 (7.2, 34)

.210 Burnes 2021 (4.2, 20)

.190 Peralta 2021 (4.0, 21)

 

The other 7 seasons listed are among the most memorable in Brewers' history (2008 Sabathia, 1992 Eldred, 2004 Sheets, Higuera's run in the late 80's). And yet we have 3 pitchers having this type of success IN THE SAME SEASON!

 

With all this said, I fear that they will somewhat cancel each other out when it comes to Cy Young voting and it will probably go to Wheeler or Bueller.

[Oxy]

Just give them each a third of the trophy.

[jjfanec]

Burnes has given up 1 run or less in 8 of his last 9 starts. I understand Wheeler has pitched more innings and is having a really solid year but Burnes has been outstanding

[jonescm128]

Unfortunate it seems our guys have zero shot barring a collapse by Wheeler or Buehler. Burnes is better in just about every way possible, except he has started three less games...and unfortunately his workload is getting some attention from voters.

 

And he plays in Milwaukee and the other two play in Philly and LA.

 

They can have the Cy Young award. We'll take a World Series.

[Pugger]

We have three horses in this race, maybe even three out of the top seven or eight. With de Grom out, this is an open race for the last two months.

After looking through some stats, I think Peralta is right there at the top.

 

Peralta is leading in opponents BA by A LOT at .136 (Woodruff is second at .179; only six below .211). He is second in ERA at 2.21 (Buehler at 2.16; only six below 2.75). He is fourth in Ks with only being 22nd in innings pitched, leading Ks per 9 innings with 12.16. He’s tied for second in WHIP with .89 (Woodruff at .88). Moreover, He set a major league record for a season unbelievably BY JULY of having 12 starts with two hits or fewer!

 

The big thing holding him back may be the innings pitched. He’s at 114 IP and the too 7 are all in the 130s or 140s. Yet, those innings have been extraordinarily good. Yeah, the opponent BA stands out to me. Buehler has second most innings and best ERA, 4th in Whip, 5th in opp. ERA., and great record 11-2.

 

If I had to pick now, my top 5 are…

Buehler, Peralta, Wheeler, Gausman, and Woodruff

 

Don't forget to add Burnes!

[brewtank34]

How amazing would it be if all three got it? The 3-headed monster that is Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff.

[dlk9s]

Give them all gold like the Olympic men's high jump.

[umphrey]

Burnes is still #1 in fWAR. fWAR is not the Cy Young of course but it helps to build a strong case.

[owbc]

It's fair to use IP as a tiebreaker given how close all of the other stats are between Burnes/Buehler/Wheeler.

 

Wheeler has the further advantage of being the one who will likely play in the most meaningful games in September. With the Brewers having the least to play for, our trio is likely to fall further behind in IP. Which is totally fine, as others have mentioned it's all about winning games in October.

[OldHeidelberg]

It's fair to use IP as a tiebreaker given how close all of the other stats are between Burnes/Buehler/Wheeler.

 

Wheeler has the further advantage of being the one who will likely play in the most meaningful games in September. With the Brewers having the least to play for, our trio is likely to fall further behind in IP. Which is totally fine, as others have mentioned it's all about winning games in October.

 

Yes 200 elite innings > 160 elite innings. Burnes probably has the best shot given his early season hype and strong play recently.

[rickh150]

Burnes is right there…..a little behind Buehler now. Wheeler’s ERA is about a full point higher than Buehler now, although his innings are high. Woodruff still in it too. His #s are about the exact same as Buehlers.

[Oxy]

Yeah, I think it's a 3 horse race between Buehler, Burnes and Woody.

[homer]

Woody has gotten some bad luck in the wins department which, unfortunately, probably still matters to some voters. He needs to go on a run to really get back in it.

[markedman5]

"I don't even know what to say. I thought I was getting away from him coming over here, but I’ve seen him twice now [as a Giant],” said Bryant, the former Cub who was traded to San Francisco at the Trade Deadline. “He's one of the best in the game. He's got five ‘plus’ pitches and throws strikes, and when he's not throwing strikes, it looks like it's going to be a strike.”

[KeithStone53151]

5 plus pitches might be a slight exaggeration, I'm not so sure all 5 are plus. That said, Burnes was more or less a FB/SL pitcher as recently as 2019. Occasionally he'd fling up a curve but mostly it was those 2. To go from a 2 pitch launching pad to a legit 5 pitch juggernaut in one offseason is literally insane. Insane credit to both his work ethic and the Brewers for providing the tools/coaching to transform himself so quickly.

[wibadgers23]

5 plus pitches might be a slight exaggeration, I'm not so sure all 5 are plus. That said, Burnes was more or less a FB/SL pitcher as recently as 2019. Occasionally he'd fling up a curve but mostly it was those 2. To go from a 2 pitch launching pad to a legit 5 pitch juggernaut in one offseason is literally insane. Insane credit to both his work ethic and the Brewers for providing the tools/coaching to transform himself so quickly.

 

This is a really good point and the reason why I think they don’t ever spend a lot of money on pitching in the offseason. They feel like they can get guys cheap, get them in that lab down in Arizona and turn them into legitimate pitchers. Just look at Hunter Strickland and the turnaround he’s made.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

“Corbin Burnes' FIP this season would rank in the top 10 all time, joining Pedro Martinez as only ones in the group to do it after 1950.

 

Burnes' 6.3 fWAR is second in all of baseball to Shohei Ohtani.“

 

 

Pause and take time to appreciate what we are witnessing.