NL CY Young Race

[rickh150]

We have three horses in this race, maybe even three out of the top seven or eight. With de Grom out, this is an open race for the last two months.

After looking through some stats, I think Peralta is right there at the top.

 

Peralta is leading in opponents BA by A LOT at .136 (Woodruff is second at .179; only six below .211). He is second in ERA at 2.21 (Buehler at 2.16; only six below 2.75). He is fourth in Ks with only being 22nd in innings pitched, leading Ks per 9 innings with 12.16. He’s tied for second in WHIP with .89 (Woodruff at .88). Moreover, He set a major league record for a season unbelievably BY JULY of having 12 starts with two hits or fewer!

 

The big thing holding him back may be the innings pitched. He’s at 114 IP and the too 7 are all in the 130s or 140s. Yet, those innings have been extraordinarily good. Yeah, the opponent BA stands out to me. Buehler has second most innings and best ERA, 4th in Whip, 5th in opp. ERA., and great record 11-2.

 

If I had to pick now, my top 5 are…

Buehler, Peralta, Wheeler, Gausman, and Woodruff

[KeithStone53151]

I was looking at this earlier as well. Honestly any of those 5 and I'd add Rogers/Burnes as guys that have a legit shot at the CY Young this year. I would agree at this moment Buehler has the inside track but it's certainly close enough that 4-5 good/bad starts could swing this thing for almost any of 7 guys.

[brewcrewdue80]

Freddy won't be winning this year over Woodruff. Woodruff has a head start on recognition and only a collapse would Peralta be ahead of him. Sure Woody has no kind of W/L record to be CY but that just shows he and Peralta won't win CY this year without Woody not just doing what he's doing but winning 4/5ths of his remainder starts.

So Buehler and Degrom are ahead in the CY and Buehler and LA being king right now in MLB is going to win barring a collapse/injury.

[bork]

It's got to be Suter. He's tied for 4th in the NL in wins.

[homer]

I think Freddy is like 40 - 1 to win it right now. If you are into wagering, that's a pretty decent bet to lay.

[TigerUppercut]

Freddy won't be winning this year over Woodruff. Woodruff has a head start on recognition and only a collapse would Peralta be ahead of him. Sure Woody has no kind of W/L record to be CY but that just shows he and Peralta won't win CY this year without Woody not just doing what he's doing but winning 4/5ths of his remainder starts.

So Buehler and Degrom are ahead in the CY and Buehler and LA being king right now in MLB is going to win barring a collapse/injury.

 

If pitching Wins have any bearing on winning the Cy Young at this point the award itself has become irrelevant.

[bork]

 

If pitching Wins have any bearing on winning the Cy Young at this point the award itself has become irrelevant.

 

Ben Sheets says hi.

[homer]

Freddy won't be winning this year over Woodruff. Woodruff has a head start on recognition and only a collapse would Peralta be ahead of him. Sure Woody has no kind of W/L record to be CY but that just shows he and Peralta won't win CY this year without Woody not just doing what he's doing but winning 4/5ths of his remainder starts.

So Buehler and Degrom are ahead in the CY and Buehler and LA being king right now in MLB is going to win barring a collapse/injury.

 

If pitching Wins have any bearing on winning the Cy Young at this point the award itself has become irrelevant.

 

It really has moved away from wins recently. DeGrom won it in 2019 with a record of 11 - 8

[sveumrules]

Freddy won't be winning this year over Woodruff. Woodruff has a head start on recognition and only a collapse would Peralta be ahead of him. Sure Woody has no kind of W/L record to be CY but that just shows he and Peralta won't win CY this year without Woody not just doing what he's doing but winning 4/5ths of his remainder starts.

So Buehler and Degrom are ahead in the CY and Buehler and LA being king right now in MLB is going to win barring a collapse/injury.

 

If pitching Wins have any bearing on winning the Cy Young at this point the award itself has become irrelevant.

 

It really has moved away from wins recently. DeGrom won it in 2019 with a record of 11 - 8

 

They've gotten better, but Rick Porcello won as recently as 2016 because he went 22-4.

 

Porcello | 223 IP | 3.15 ERA | 189 K | 6.1 rWAR | 5.1 fWAR | +2.18 WPA

Verlander | 227 IP | 3.04 ERA | 254 K | 6.7 rWAR | 5.4 fWAR | +3.95 WPA

 

As for NL 2021, I guess it will come down to what the voters want to focus on.

 

By FIP based WAR it's a two horse race between Wheeler (5.1) & Burnes (4.9) with a sizeable gap before guys like Woodruff (3.9) and Buehler (3.6).

 

While FIP might be the best true talent estimator, in terms of what actually happened most voters will turn to ERA. By runs allowed based WAR it is a little closer with Buehler (5.5), Woodruff (5.1), Wheeler (5.0) and Gausman (5.0) bunched together before a slight drop down to Freddy (4.7) then guys like Scherzer (4.1) and Burnes (3.8).

 

He'll never win it, but by Win Probability Added the best pitcher in the NL this year has been Hader (+3.51) with Woodruff (+3.37) just behind then a little bit of a drop off to guys like Wheeler (+2.91), Buehler (+2.79), Peralta (+2.78) and Scherzer (+2.78).

[DHonks]

In Vegas I have money on Hader, Burnes and Woodruff.

I can’t vote deGrom due to the lack of starts. It really hurts us that our pitcher with the most wins is Suter

[pitchleague]

If I had to put money on it, I would bet that the BBWAA vote Buehler as the winner, almost no matter what happens over the last two months. I also wouldn't put it past them to see DeGrom as the winner (or at least a finalist.)

 

I would bet no Brewer finishes in the top three, because that's how the writers are. However, if they suddenly go on a tear--something like Woody winning 8 in-a-row, or Freddy throwing a no-hitter and a 17-strikeout game, or Burnes not walking another batter for the rest of the season--I could see a Brewer sneak in there.

 

But win it? Pffft, I highly doubt the voters will let that happen.

[brewcrewdue80]

Freddy won't be winning this year over Woodruff. Woodruff has a head start on recognition and only a collapse would Peralta be ahead of him. Sure Woody has no kind of W/L record to be CY but that just shows he and Peralta won't win CY this year without Woody not just doing what he's doing but winning 4/5ths of his remainder starts.

So Buehler and Degrom are ahead in the CY and Buehler and LA being king right now in MLB is going to win barring a collapse/injury.

 

If pitching Wins have any bearing on winning the Cy Young at this point the award itself has become irrelevant.

 

 

Agreed and noted. but when guys like Gausman and Walker or Peralta even exist with similar numbers and Woodruff has a 7-6 record and Buehler at 11-2 would be a leaning factor towards which 2.2-ish ERA and 200ks pitcher do I choose for Cy Young.

 

There's also the hill that having Burnes and Peralta performing at this may take the votes away from Woodruff. In line that one or both get 2nd and 3rd place votes and Woodruff takes a 4th or 5th, while Buehler is clearly top dog in LA's rotation.

 

Buehler also has that fact he was expected this level of pitcher and him being in LA and confirming that he indeed was a top 10 worthy prospect will be rewarded first. Again that is where I think we stand at this point. There are so many contenders this year who likely would be an easy top Cy Young or #2 in previous seasons. Gotta close the deal down the stretch to claim it.

[rickh150]

If I had to put money on it, I would bet that the BBWAA vote Buehler as the winner, almost no matter what happens over the last two months. I also wouldn't put it past them to see DeGrom as the winner (or at least a finalist.)

 

I would bet no Brewer finishes in the top three, because that's how the writers are. However, if they suddenly go on a tear--something like Woody winning 8 in-a-row, or Freddy throwing a no-hitter and a 17-strikeout game, or Burnes not walking another batter for the rest of the season--I could see a Brewer sneak in there.

 

But win it? Pffft, I highly doubt the voters will let that happen.

 

I really don’t buy any of the Milwaukee/ small market hate. More than ever, all these underlying stats play a factor, much more than like in 82 when Vuke won it based more on his team’s offense and his own wins than his stats. Peralta could be this years’s CY Young’s version of Devin Williams for Reliever of the Year… not really expecting it until after the fact when all the raw numbers are stacked together. If he puts together more of the same type of outings, nothing more or less, he has a great opportunity. The only thing holding him back now is CC and how much he pitches him down the stretch. If he is being skipped or limited to 80- 85 pitches in 5 innings, then no, he has no shot.

 

In my mind, a Brewer has about a 50% shot of winning the CY Young this year. They have been that great! With Hader, they might even get votes for four pitchers this year.

[markedman5]

Yeah…..writers had no problem voting for Yelich, Braun or Yount fir MVP……..Heck Vuke won the Cy Young when he probably shouldn’t have.

 

I have no idea who will win it but I’m not worried about any bias making the difference.

 

If there are 3 or 4 worthy candidates only 1 can win…….at this point Buehler is more then worthy……let’s see how everybody pitches down the stretch,

[Oxy]

Are these the 3 best years any Brewer starter has ever had? All in the same year? Sheets '04, Caldwell '78, Higuera '86, and I guess Vuke '82 just cuz he won the Cy Young, but I think that's actually #7 (at best) right now...

[endaround]

Sheets 04 towers over them all. Then the 3 year Higuera run, Sabathia in 2008, Caldwell in 1978. As for having 3 good starters at the same time, the 2006 Brewers were more good than great like we are seeing now. I mean Sheets in 2006 is similar to Burnes in that he put up 4 wins in just over 100 innings.

[rickh150]

Are these the 3 best years any Brewer starter has ever had? All in the same year? Sheets '04, Caldwell '78, Higuera '86, and I guess Vuke '82 just cuz he won the Cy Young, but I think that's actually #7 (at best) right now...

 

Wow… Caldwell ‘78!!!

2.36 ERA, 23 mind you complete games, 293.1 IP

That’s my pick for best season.

I’d go…

Caldwell, Higuera, Sheets out of what you listed. Our guys are not close to these three yet. Two months of pitching might change that, although I’m still taking Caldwell regardless…. and that is in the American League with the DH!

[endaround]

Are these the 3 best years any Brewer starter has ever had? All in the same year? Sheets '04, Caldwell '78, Higuera '86, and I guess Vuke '82 just cuz he won the Cy Young, but I think that's actually #7 (at best) right now...

 

Wow… Caldwell ‘78!!!

2.36 ERA, 23 mind you complete games, 293.1 IP

That’s my pick for best season.

I’d go…

Caldwell, Higuera, Sheets out of what you listed. Our guys are not close to these three yet. Two months of pitching might change that, although I’m still taking Caldwell regardless…. and that is in the American League with the DH!

 

Keep in mind that the late 1970s were a really different time. I mean Phil Nierko is a somewhat a special case but he pitched 334 innings as a 39 year old in 1978 with a 2.88 era in 44 starts. Lots of pitchers approached 40 starts and 300 innings. Not to say Caldwell didn't put up one of the greatest Brewer pitching seasons, but that it was in line with what great pitching seasons looked like in the late 1970s which look completely different to things 40+ years later.

[rickh150]

Caldwell was runner up to CY Young and 12th in MVP in 1978. Way better stats than Vuke in 82.

 

Fingers in 81, CY Young and MVP, was extra good too for a shortened season and 78 IP, but MVP to a multi inning closer still boggles my mind. Still can’t believe his number is retired by the team. His Brewers career is much more like Simmons, Sutton, Axford and Vuke than Molitor and Yount.

[Pugger]

If I had to put money on it, I would bet that the BBWAA vote Buehler as the winner, almost no matter what happens over the last two months. I also wouldn't put it past them to see DeGrom as the winner (or at least a finalist.)

 

I would bet no Brewer finishes in the top three, because that's how the writers are. However, if they suddenly go on a tear--something like Woody winning 8 in-a-row, or Freddy throwing a no-hitter and a 17-strikeout game, or Burnes not walking another batter for the rest of the season--I could see a Brewer sneak in there.

 

But win it? Pffft, I highly doubt the voters will let that happen.

 

I really don’t buy any of the Milwaukee/ small market hate. More than ever, all these underlying stats play a factor, much more than like in 82 when Vuke won it based more on his team’s offense and his own wins than his stats. Peralta could be this years’s CY Young’s version of Devin Williams for Reliever of the Year… not really expecting it until after the fact when all the raw numbers are stacked together. If he puts together more of the same type of outings, nothing more or less, he has a great opportunity. The only thing holding him back now is CC and how much he pitches him down the stretch. If he is being skipped or limited to 80- 85 pitches in 5 innings, then no, he has no shot.

 

In my mind, a Brewer has about a 50% shot of winning the CY Young this year. They have been that great! With Hader, they might even get votes for four pitchers this year.

 

The national media ignores the Brewers. We have the 3rd best record in the majors but any news about us is buried on the sports channels and websites.

[rickh150]

Tonight’s (8/11) pub with the K’s helps.

[tigerbrew]

In a game vs Cubs on 11 August 2021, Corbin Burnes set multiple franchise records and tied a MLB record.

 

 

 

Brian Anderson

@BAndersonPxP

 

What a night for @Burnes16 and the @Brewers

 

-10 straight K’s to tie MLB record

-Career-high in K’s (15)

-Most K’s without a BB in Brewer history

-30 whiffs (new career-high)

-First opposing pitcher vs CHC to 15K/0BB

-Biggest shutout win vs Cubs in MIL franchise history

 

 

 

Milwaukee Brewers

@Brewers

 

@Burnes16 ties Tom Seaver (1970) and Aaron Nola (2021) for the @MLB

record with 10 consecutive strikeouts.

 

Strikeout #10 has already made its way to the clubhouse and is authenticated! #ThisIsMyCrew

 

 

[MrTPlush]

Unfortunate it seems our guys have zero shot barring a collapse by Wheeler or Buehler. Burnes is better in just about every way possible, except he has started three less games...and unfortunately his workload is getting some attention from voters.

[StearnsFTW]

He struck out 10 in a row on 39 pitches. Incredible. And one ball was touched. Just the craziest thing I've ever seen.

[wibadgers23]

Unfortunate it seems our guys have zero shot barring a collapse by Wheeler or Buehler. Burnes is better in just about every way possible, except he has started three less games...and unfortunately his workload is getting some attention from voters.

 

And he plays in Milwaukee and the other two play in Philly and LA.