Remaining Schedules

[stoutdude04]

My only issue with schedules is I wish they tried to balance them better. I realize that's a logistics nightmare, but it's annoying that one team might get the cubs 6 or 9 games after theyve mailed it in, but another plays them the first month + 10 times.

[wibadgers23]

It’s completely possible the Reds don’t lose to the Cubs or Pirates once more the rest of the season. The Cubs played the Reds pretty tough tonight and were still down 4-0 through 6 innings and now it’s 11-0. Not only are these teams bad, but they are in full tank mode trying to get the highest draft pick possible. The Reds must be licking their chops right now.

[Jopal78]

It’s completely possible the Reds don’t lose to the Cubs or Pirates once more the rest of the season. The Cubs played the Reds pretty tough tonight and were still down 4-0 through 6 innings and now it’s 11-0. Not only are these teams bad, but they are in full tank mode trying to get the highest draft pick possible. The Reds must be licking their chops right now.

 

I don’t know if I’d say the Cubs are in full tank mode. You see how important Bryant, Rizzo, Baez etc. were. They were a losing club with those guys and the players that are there now were all there when those guys left but obviously those superstars were the difference between a 78 win team and a 65 win team.

 

As for the Reds, they’re not going to simply sweep all the weak teams they play for the rest of the year. Even the mighty Brewers dropped one to Pittsburgh. It’s baseball; even the best teams lose twice a week. The Reds are 20-13 in one run games. That’s a lot of good fortune that they need to keep getting.

 

The Cardinals had 3/5 of their rotation held down by retreads: Lester, Happ and Wade LeBlanc. It’s a pipe dream they could somehow leapfrog into first place with that starting pitching, not to mention LeBlanc is hurt forcing them to go back to John Gant who they brought in the retreads initially to replace

[brewcrewdue80]

 

Yes, if you're going to go with a realistic but pessimistic scenario, the Brewers go 18-25 to win 90 and the Reds go 26-17 to win 90.

 

But time is ticking and the Reds have been losing ground, not gaining it.

 

With 22 games against the Pirates, Cubs, and Marlins, the Reds could easily go better than 26-17 if they can beat the Cubs and Pirates at close to the same rate the Brewers beat them and add 4 or 5 wins against the Marlins. 16-6 in those 22 isn’t hard to see at all.

 

Just a reminder the Marlins are a far better team than the Cubs or Pirates. A lot of 1run losses give them their poor record, but basically the are near a .500 team quality.

Trevor Rogers is currently sitting on Bereavement but that hopefully ends in time for him to pitch vs the Reds. The 2nd series vs Miami comes immediately after the last series vs the Brewers at Miami. Which has its abilities for long nights out in town and poor games played. This leads to immediately playing the Cardinals at home flying back from Miami. That point right there after the Cardinal series will be the tell all whether to be concerned of the Reds or not. They could easily find themselves at a 5-8 or 6-7 stretch after and be much further out of it or completely right in it if the opposite. The final stretch beyond that is cake for them.

The Reds may also be dealing with an IL stint to Jesse Winker that would cause him to miss the Brewers series.

[DuWayne Steurer]

It’s completely possible the Reds don’t lose to the Cubs or Pirates once more the rest of the season. The Cubs played the Reds pretty tough tonight and were still down 4-0 through 6 innings and now it’s 11-0. Not only are these teams bad, but they are in full tank mode trying to get the highest draft pick possible. The Reds must be licking their chops right now.

 

 

The Pirates beat the Brewers by 10 runs like 3 days ago. The Reds aren't going to sweep the Cubs and Pirates the rest of the way out.

[StearnsFTW]

It’s completely possible the Reds don’t lose to the Cubs or Pirates once more the rest of the season. The Cubs played the Reds pretty tough tonight and were still down 4-0 through 6 innings and now it’s 11-0. Not only are these teams bad, but they are in full tank mode trying to get the highest draft pick possible. The Reds must be licking their chops right now.

 

 

Possible? Sure. Incredibly unlikely though. Like, less than 1%.

[BruisedCrew]

Haudricourt’s podcast on JSOnline this week discusses whether the Brewers are a lock for the playoffs in light of the remaining schedules.

[KeithStone53151]

Haudricourt’s podcast on JSOnline this week discusses whether the Brewers are a lock for the playoffs in light of the remaining schedules.

 

We are not a lock for anything while the cardinals control their own destiny against us with 13 games and less than a 13 game lead against them.

[areacodes]

Haudricourt’s podcast on JSOnline this week discusses whether the Brewers are a lock for the playoffs in light of the remaining schedules.

 

Has anybody said the Brewers are a lock for the post season? I know Peavey finally said it is “statistically over” but pretty much everybody (including him before the “statistically over” statement) has indicated that there is a small chance the Brewers could still blow it but it’ll be super rare or a historical collapse.

 

I don’t think it is likely the Brewers will lose the division but I’m not going to celebrate anything until our magic number is 0 and we’ve got an x, y or z next to our name in the standings.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Brewers are somewhere between 90 to 95% for the division. And yes, most projections take remaining schedule into account.

 

Instead of focusing in on those One out of 10 or one out of 20 scenarios where the Brewers don't win, I'm just going to focus my fandom on focusing in on the 9 out of 10 or 19 out of 20 where they do. Doesn't mean I'm not acknowledging that they could potentially blow it in a random odd scenario, but bringing up every day a weird odd scenario where they crap their pants and don't make it just seems unecessarily negative. Imo of course.

[Fear The Chorizo]

There is nothing about this organization's track record under Stearns that indicates the Brewers are bad at finishing strong during the regular season - if anything the past 4 seasons indicates the exact opposite. If I'm a Cards fan I'm bummed the Brewers don't have 13 left with the Reds, because that would be a much easier way to gain ground on a playoff contender in front of them.

 

Every season is its own animal, but barring a slew of key injuries there's nothing with this Brewer team to make me think they are going to slump for an extended period of time that allows a different streaking NL Central club from overtaking them for the division. The Brewers have even made it through their own COVID outbreak this season and came out of it with a larger divisional lead than they had right after the AS Break.

 

The Brewers' magic number right now sits at 36 against the Reds and closer to 30 against the Cards, with ~43 games remaining....that's incredibly low for mid-August against the 2nd and 3rd place teams in the division.

 

Specific to the Cards, their September schedule is just brutal - if they don't cut their deficit in the division and wild card standings in half before the calendar flips, they are toast. The Reds have a softer schedule but they only get 3 games left against the Brewers to gain ground directly - I think San Diego is going to have a tough time holding them or the Phils/Braves off for the wildcard, though.

 

The 6 remaining games between the Cards and Reds are going to be guaranteed magic number reducers for the Brewers against at least one of those teams each night, both if the Brewers win their games those nights against the Giants and Indians.

[Jopal78]

Haudricourt’s podcast on JSOnline this week discusses whether the Brewers are a lock for the playoffs in light of the remaining schedules.

 

We are not a lock for anything while the cardinals control their own destiny against us with 13 games and less than a 13 game lead against them.

 

Sure, the future is unknown. BUT, the Cardinal rotation is: Flaherty, Wainwright, Happ (4.32 FIP), Lester (5.12), Gant (5.13), and maybe LeBlanc (5.59) with a bullpen of Reyes, Gallegos, Cabrera but then Helsley (4.00), Andrew Miller (4.85), Justin Miller (5.51) TJ McFarland (4.54) and Ponce de Leon (6.14).

 

If that ragtag group of pitchers (and heretofore uninspiring collection of hitters) radically outperforms the Brewers staff down the stretch, then the front office in Milwaukee should probably make a change in leadership in the dugout because the more talented team will have been outperformed by a lesser talented team.

 

Moreover, the Cardinals have gone 17-2 against Pittsburgh, Miami and Kansas City. They're 44-54 against everyone else. They've played their entire slate against Miami and Kansas City and only have 4 games remaining against Pittsburgh.

[formerlybis]

Looking forward a little, the Twins have been performing better lately, winning series against the likes of TB, Chisox, and the trashcan bangers. We don't get them until the end of next week, and they'll be playing the NYY and Bosox as a lead-in to our series, but thought I should note that they are looking perhaps like a harder test than anticipated.

[MrTPlush]

Great, now we are talking about the Cardinals catching us?

 

Can't wait for tomorrow's edition featuring the Pirates catching us.

[SeaBass]

Great, now we are talking about the Cardinals catching us?

 

Can't wait for tomorrow's edition featuring the Pirates catching us.

The Cardinals could go 10-3 against the Brewers in their remaining games and still be 3 games behind but they likely would have greatly impacted the Brewers lead on the Reds in the meantime.

 

Not that I'm predicting that nightmare scenario but I think that is the concern people have, not that they're going to blow their 10 game lead on the Cardinals.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Great, now we are talking about the Cardinals catching us?

 

Can't wait for tomorrow's edition featuring the Pirates catching us.

 

I think it's much more realistic that we catch the NL west leader in the standings and wind up with the top seed in the NL than the Cardinals or Reds coming anywhere near catching the Brewers.

[wibadgers23]

Great, now we are talking about the Cardinals catching us?

 

Can't wait for tomorrow's edition featuring the Pirates catching us.

 

Let's say the Pirates go 38-5 to close it out. That would put them right at 80 wins. Brewers would have to go 7-36 for the Pirates to catch them and win the division outright. Of course, the Pirates would also have to hope that the Reds, Cardinals and Cubs all go on epic losing streaks too so it's probably unlikely this is the year for the Pirates.

[pacopete4]

This thread. Gold.

[KeithStone53151]

Great, now we are talking about the Cardinals catching us?

 

Can't wait for tomorrow's edition featuring the Pirates catching us.

 

It's wildly illogical, but I won't believe the Cardinals are actually gone until they are mathematically gone. Right or wrong, that's where I'm at with their particular brand of wizardry.

[OldHeidelberg]

Great, now we are talking about the Cardinals catching us?

 

Can't wait for tomorrow's edition featuring the Pirates catching us.

The Cardinals could go 10-3 against the Brewers in their remaining games and still be 3 games behind but they likely would have greatly impacted the Brewers lead on the Reds in the meantime.

 

Not that I'm predicting that nightmare scenario but I think that is the concern people have, not that they're going to blow their 10 game lead on the Cardinals.

 

Yep that's me, just a lot of games left against a franchise that has obviously at times tore our hearts out, and they are also hot right now. But I think the Reds overtake us if we blow it. But take 2 out of 3 in this series and you can probably put me in the "we got this" side of this debate. We are that close just not there yet.

[BruisedCrew]

Haudricourt’s podcast on JSOnline this week discusses whether the Brewers are a lock for the playoffs in light of the remaining schedules.

 

Has anybody said the Brewers are a lock for the post season? I know Peavey finally said it is “statistically over” but pretty much everybody (including him before the “statistically over” statement) has indicated that there is a small chance the Brewers could still blow it but it’ll be super rare or a historical collapse.

 

I don’t think it is likely the Brewers will lose the division but I’m not going to celebrate anything until our magic number is 0 and we’ve got an x, y or z next to our name in the standings.

 

I only brought it up because the title of the podcast is “Are the playoffs a lock for Milwaukee? Even with the Reds favorable schedule?” and they discussed a lot of the things that have been raised in this thread.

[stalton]

95% is 19/20 success rate. Immediately the nerd in me goes to rolling a 1 on a d20. All one needs to do is not roll a 1. How hard can that be? Yet, how many stories can be told about an epic failure so bad, it gets talked about generation through generation.

I think it's natural to fear rolling a 1 and some people have played out how that 1 would occur. For me, I roll with confidence because even though it will happen and has happened for us Wisconsin natives, I'd rather be happy I'm rolling for no 1 versus rolling for a 20.

[BruisedCrew]

 

Sure, the future is unknown. BUT, the Cardinal rotation is: Flaherty, Wainwright, Happ (4.32 FIP), Lester (5.12), Gant (5.13), and maybe LeBlanc (5.59) with a bullpen of Reyes, Gallegos, Cabrera but then Helsley (4.00), Andrew Miller (4.85), Justin Miller (5.51) TJ McFarland (4.54) and Ponce de Leon (6.14).

 

.

 

For what it’s worth, Miles Mikolas has completed his rehab assignments and is expected to rejoin the Cardinals this week, possibly to start against the Brewers on Thursday. If he and Flaherty can stay healthy their rotation will look better than it has for most of the summer as they make their push for the second wild card spot. Even if they can’t catch the Brewers they will be playing to win.

 

After this Brewers series the Cardinals next 9 games are 7 against the Pirates and 2 against the improving Tigers. After that their schedule is loaded with playoff contenders, including the Reds, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, and Mets, and doesn’t let up until the last 10 days when they have 7 games against the Cubs sandwiched around a series against the Brewers. They have a significantly tougher schedule than the Reds.

[crossface21]

Obviously, the odds are in favor of the Brewers winning the division, but I'd be a bit more comfortable saying it's a lock when the magic number is 1 and there are like 15 games to play. If this was a team that was driven by average pitching but great hitting I'd be a bit more on the fence. But with the pitching possibly being the best all around in MLB and what has a become a decent hitting team, I think I'm a bit more confident that they are gonna get this done.

[pitchleague]

The Red Sox had a 10-game lead over the Yankees in late July (the 23rd, maybe?). Guess who is in third place now? Yup, the Red Sox.

 

It happens.

 

Will it happen to the Brewers? Doubtful, to be sure. But certainly possible.

 

And, for the record, I don’t believe they will. But it would be totally “Brewers” if they make things interesting.