Remaining Schedules

[BruisedCrew]

About half of our remaining games are against the Cardinals, Giants and Dodgers (20 games). If we go around .500 or even slightly below in those games we should be just fine. The rest of the teams we play include the Twins, Cubs, Nationals, Tigers, etc which are all very winnable series.

 

I would throw the 3 games with the Reds in there, and completely agree that winning close to half of those 23 games would make the Brewers tough to catch. I don’t focus too much on the Dodgers games because they are the last 3 of the season. If the Brewers haven’t wrapped up the division by then there won’t be anybody declaring the race statistically over.

 

This kind of highlights how pivotal the next two weeks can be as the Brewers have 3 game series against the Cards, Nats, Reds, and Twins, while the Cards and Reds play some of the weakest teams in the league when they aren’t playing the Brewers. If the Brewers win 2 of 3 in each of those 4 series they will be taking a big step closer toward the target. These two weeks present the Reds and Cards with one of the biggest opportunities to gain ground that they’re going to get, and it’s up to the Brewers to squelch those opportunities instead fo counting on the Cubs, Pirates, and amarlins to help them.

[BruisedCrew]

 

The subsequent part of your post does suggest that you continue to not believe what the math is showing. Which, as I've said, is fine. You do you. But for the benefit of anyone else concerned about how realistic the possibility is that the Reds will overtake the Brewers this season, the fact remains that the division race is, essentially, over statistically. Does that mean it's impossible to blow it? Nope. Just that it's something that would literally happen less than a handful of times every 100 seasons, and hasn't happened in actuality in 26 years. Whether that's something you want to focus on for the next 6 weeks or not is up to you.

 

As I have said before, it isn’t that I don’t believe the math, I apparently just have a different reaction to a 95% probability than you do. I wouldn’t get on an airplane if they told me that it had a 95% chance of reaching its destination safely and that crashes are “super rare”. I don’t wear a seat belt in the car because I expect to be in an accident (or because it’s the law), but because I understand that accidents can and do happen, albeit hopefully less than 5% of all trips.

 

To put it in terms of baseball probabilities, according to the Baseball Reference site, the Brewers win probability entering the last of the ninth yesterday was 80%, and it went to 95% after Hader got the first two outs. I did not consider the game “statistically over” at that point because 2 out rallies are “super rare”. I didn’t put the game in the win column until the third strike for the third out and I expect most Brewers fans watching the game did the same.

[Eye Black]

Here’s where I’m at currently:

 

If the unlikely series of events occurs that would cause the Brewers to miss the playoffs, then there is a high likelihood I’ll be ready to see the Brewers season end at that point.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

To put it in terms of baseball probabilities, according to the Baseball Reference site, the Brewers win probability entering the last of the ninth yesterday was 80%, and it went to 95% after Hader got the first two outs. I did not consider the game “statistically over” at that point because 2 out rallies are “super rare”. I didn’t put the game in the win column until the third strike for the third out and I expect most Brewers fans watching the game did the same.

 

There's a difference, though, between holding off on declaring the game "statistically over" and outwardly believing they are going to blow it regardless of the statistical improbability of that happening. I think that's the summation of the opinion difference here, isn't it? I think there are several posters here that believe that the Brewers are going to win the division, and are using those probabilities to back up their claim. You seem to believe that there is a strong probability that they are going to blow their big mid-August lead to either the Reds or Cardinals, regardless of what the probabilities indicate. In essence, it's the difference between a "glass is half full" fan and a "glass is half empty" fan. In the end, neither side is really right or wrong. However, when you post that "glass is half empty" philosophy on a page called "Brewerfan.net" filled with a ton of eternal optimists, it isn't surprising, to me at least, that there is considerable pushback on the pessimism.

[Jopal78]

Isn't one of those rare collapses just what happened to the Brewers in 2014?

 

Best record in the NL on July 1st, and could've coasted into the playoffs playing just .500 baseball, only to falter down the stretch and miss the post season entirely. Which is not to say I think the Brewers will fail this year, BUT if there is one team in baseball that has seemingly gotten snake bitten at every turn it would be the Milwaukee Brewers.

[Outlander]

They had a 3 game lead at this point in 2014 and already had a 9-16 July, the wheels were already falling off. 5 games is a big difference.

[owbc]

Reasons not to be concerned:

(1) The Brewers are very good + a completely different team from April.

(2) The Brewers are well coached and the organization is well run.

(3) The Brewers thrive when rosters expand.

(4) The competition is inferior and seems to be over-performing of late.

(5) It's hard to blow an 8-game lead this late in the year against mediocre competition.

 

Reasons to be concerned:

(1) Baseball is random and crazy stuff likes to happen in small samples.

(2) Injuries/COVID

(3) Joey Votto having a 2019 Yelich-like 2nd half.

(4) Cardinals voodoo.

(5) Wisconsin sports curse gets revenge for the Bucks.

 

It seems to me like the first list is mostly facts and the second list is mostly fears, but we're Brewers fans so I can understand worrying. If the lead gets to double-digits I think there will be some unclenching, at least temporarily.

 

Personally I'm most afraid of a 5-game divisional series. It's not as awful as the wild card game, but it doesn't take much bad luck to have the entire season go down the toilet.

[Fear The Chorizo]

That 2014 team hit a wall offensively around this time last season - Overall their pitching held up well across the whole season despite being a collection of ~#2-3 caliber starters and a thin bullpen that walked alot of tightropes, but as a team their offensive production cratered for a solid month from mid August through late September. That lineup had some pop, but they were largely a feast/famine group of hitters that all slumped at the worst possible time. If they weren't scoring runs, their pitching wasn't going to carry them through offensive slumps the way the current Brewers staff has already proven capable of doing.

[BruisedCrew]

You seem to believe that there is a strong probability that they are going to blow their big mid-August lead to either the Reds or Cardinals, regardless of what the probabilities indicate..

 

I don’t know why citing past situations in which the Brewers and other teams have blown leads is interpreted as indicating that I think there is a “strong probability” that the Brewers are going to blow the lead, or that I expect them to blow it. To me, a “strong probability” would be at least 50% or more, and I am nowhere near that. As I’ve said, 90-95% probabilities are nice, but they aren’t guarantees of a desired result.

 

My general attitude is that it isn’t over until it’s over, and that it currently isn’t over. The responses on this thread tell me that I am not alone in feeling this way.

 

I also admitted above to being a little skeptical about these probabilities because they are attempting to apply mathematical calculations to something that has a significant human element. Once things go sour for a team the probabilities based on past performance and treating every game as an independent event can go out the window. For example, the Fangraphs charts show that the Padres had a playoff probability in the 95% range for much of late June through late July. Was that wild card race “statistically over”? Now just a few weeks later that probability is below 60%. It just shows how quickly these things can change.

[jjfanec]

The next 9 games will go a long way in determining how comfortable I am. If we win 2 of 3 against the Cards and 11 game lead with 40 to play would feel pretty great. Then we get the free falling nationals at home. 2 of 3 there would be nice. A sweep would be huge. If we win both those series and we go into a 3 game set against the Reds likely up 8. Take 2 of 3 against them and we are up 9 with 34 to play.

 

If we lost a couple of those 1-2 then it will start to get tight especially with the Reds playing minor league teams much of the way.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

You seem to believe that there is a strong probability that they are going to blow their big mid-August lead to either the Reds or Cardinals, regardless of what the probabilities indicate..

 

I don’t know why citing past situations in which the Brewers and other teams have blown leads is interpreted as indicating that I think there is a “strong probability” that the Brewers are going to blow the lead, or that I expect them to blow it. To me, a “strong probability” would be at least 50% or more, and I am nowhere near that. As I’ve said, 90-95% probabilities are nice, but they aren’t guarantees of a desired result.

 

My general attitude is that it isn’t over until it’s over, and that it currently isn’t over. The responses on this thread tell me that I am not alone in feeling this way.

 

I also admitted above to being a little skeptical about these probabilities because they are attempting to apply mathematical calculations to something that has a significant human element. Once things go sour for a team the probabilities based on past performance and treating every game as an independent event can go out the window. For example, the Fangraphs charts show that the Padres had a playoff probability in the 95% range for much of late June through late July. Was that wild card race “statistically over”? Now just a few weeks later that probability is below 60%. It just shows how quickly these things can change.

 

That is a fair and completely reasonable response. You are correct that those probabilities do take trends into account. If the Brewers were to suddenly drop 10 straight, those numbers would change drastically. Perhaps it is in the way you post that was perhaps causing me to read a little more into your posts than what you were truly trying to say. I think you tend to be on the more pessimistic/worst case side of the spectrum around here, so when I read your thoughts, I automatically assumed that you were almost expecting to Brewers to wilt down the stretch. I apologize if I took it out of context.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

You seem to believe that there is a strong probability that they are going to blow their big mid-August lead to either the Reds or Cardinals, regardless of what the probabilities indicate..

 

I don’t know why citing past situations in which the Brewers and other teams have blown leads is interpreted as indicating that I think there is a “strong probability” that the Brewers are going to blow the lead, or that I expect them to blow it. To me, a “strong probability” would be at least 50% or more, and I am nowhere near that. As I’ve said, 90-95% probabilities are nice, but they aren’t guarantees of a desired result.

 

My general attitude is that it isn’t over until it’s over, and that it currently isn’t over. The responses on this thread tell me that I am not alone in feeling this way.

 

I also admitted above to being a little skeptical about these probabilities because they are attempting to apply mathematical calculations to something that has a significant human element. Once things go sour for a team the probabilities based on past performance and treating every game as an independent event can go out the window. For example, the Fangraphs charts show that the Padres had a playoff probability in the 95% range for much of late June through late July. Was that wild card race “statistically over”? Now just a few weeks later that probability is below 60%. It just shows how quickly these things can change.

 

That is a fair and completely reasonable response. You are correct that those probabilities do take trends into account. If the Brewers were to suddenly drop 10 straight, those numbers would change drastically. Perhaps it is in the way you post that was perhaps causing me to read a little more into your posts than what you were truly trying to say. I think you tend to be on the more pessimistic/worst case side of the spectrum around here, so when I read your thoughts, I automatically assumed that you were almost expecting to Brewers to wilt down the stretch. I apologize if I took it out of context.

 

Sure, if they drop a lot of games in a row. But talent matters. No way this pitching staff allows for that kind of skid. I mean, what’s the longest losing streak this year? A handful at most?

[markedman5]

We lost 6 in a row earlier this season….highlighted by the 4 game debacle vs the Phillies. 5 in a row in 1 other stretch.

[82brewcrew82]

I don't think the Reds or the Cardinals think the division is locked up not matter what the statistical evidence may say. No doubt the Cardinals think the upcoming series is there chance to "get back in it"

[ThisIsMyCrew]

We lost 6 in a row earlier this season….highlighted by the 4 game debacle vs the Phillies. 5 in a row in 1 other stretch.

 

Ahh, handful and a finger. I was close!

[owbc]

Which is more likely?

 

(a) Brewers lose the NL Central.

(b) Brewers win 100 games.

 

28-15 to win 100.

15-28 to win 87 (Assuming the Reds win 88 as projected by FanGraphs).

[sveumrules]

28-15 (.651 winning %) would be a small step back from from the 51-24 (.680 winning %) posted so far since the Adames trade.

[nate82]

I don't think the Reds or the Cardinals think the division is locked up not matter what the statistical evidence may say. No doubt the Cardinals think the upcoming series is there chance to "get back in it"

 

It is irrelevant what the Reds or Cardinals think. They may think the upcoming series is their chance to "get back in it" but if they don't win the series they are toast. 10 gams is a lot of ground to make up with only 40+ games left to go. If the Brewers leave St. Louis with a 11 game lead that is huge and if they leave with a 9 game it is a little bit better but really all the Brewers have to do is play .500 ball and the Cardinals can't catch them.

 

The September schedule for the Cardinals is brutal. They play all but 4-games against playoff contenders. If the Brewers lead isn't within 5-games by the end of August St. Louis is pretty much done. That is a brutal schedule for them in September they play the Dodgers 4 times, the Padres 3 times, the Mets 3 times, the Reds 4 times and the Brewers 10 times. The only easy matchup is against the Cubs which they play 4 times. The stretch from September 1st to the 23rd is absolutely brutal as every team the Cardinals play in that stretch are playoff contenders and all of them are going to be playing for something. The Dodgers and Padres will be playing for wild card spots, the Mets will be playing for the NL East and the Reds will be playing for a wild card spot. These are all playoff teams that the Cardinals will have to get through starting on August 30th with the Reds.

 

The Cardinals may think this is their time to get back in it but they have a hard road ahead to get back in it. The Brewers will also be facing the Cubs in Milwaukee when the Cardinals will be playing the Padres. I think the Cardinals will be done and out by 9/20.

 

The Reds have a more realistic chance to catch the Brewers than the Cardinals do as they have an easier schedule in September but only have 3-games left against the Brewers.

[BruisedCrew]

At the risk of incurring more wrath as the resident pessimist, this is where the schedules and opponents have to be taken into account. For the season, the Brewers are a combined 38-11 against the Cubs, Pirates, DBacks, and Rockies, the 4 worst teams in the NL, and they only have 3 more games against those teams (the Cubs). Instead of piling up wins against bad teams, the charge for the Brewers now is to hold their own against the Cards, Reds, and Giants, who account for 10 of their next 16 games while at least winning series against the lesser teams. If they can win 5 or 6 of those 10 games, their position should look even better than it does now.

 

I wouldn’t want to guess whether winning 100 games or losing the division is more likely, but at this point I would say they are equally unlikely. To get to 100 wins they probably have to squash the Cardinals hopes quickly so they become more docile in the other 3 remaining series.

 

I think there is a good chance that the Reds win a couple more than 88 games, if for no reason other than that I think the projections may rate the Pirates and especially the Cubs a little higher than they deserve because they weakened themselves at the deadline.

[owbc]

At the risk of incurring more wrath as the resident pessimist, this is where the schedules and opponents have to be taken into account. For the season, the Brewers are a combined 38-11 against the Cubs, Pirates, DBacks, and Rockies, the 4 worst teams in the NL, and they only have 3 more games against those teams (the Cubs). Instead of piling up wins against bad teams, the charge for the Brewers now is to hold their own against the Cards, Reds, and Giants, who account for 10 of their next 16 games while at least winning series against the lesser teams. If they can win 5 or 6 of those 10 games, their position should look even better than it does now.

 

I wouldn’t want to guess whether winning 100 games or losing the division is more likely, but at this point I would say they are equally unlikely. To get to 100 wins they probably have to squash the Cardinals hopes quickly so they become more docile in the other 3 remaining series.

 

I think there is a good chance that the Reds win a couple more than 88 games, if for no reason other than that I think the projections may rate the Pirates and especially the Cubs a little higher than they deserve because they weakened themselves at the deadline.

 

Yes, if you're going to go with a realistic but pessimistic scenario, the Brewers go 18-25 to win 90 and the Reds go 26-17 to win 90.

 

But time is ticking and the Reds have been losing ground, not gaining it.

[pitchleague]

Reasons not to be concerned:

(1) The Brewers are very good + a completely different team from April.

(2) The Brewers are well coached and the organization is well run.

(3) The Brewers thrive when rosters expand.

(4) The competition is inferior and seems to be over-performing of late.

(5) It's hard to blow an 8-game lead this late in the year against mediocre competition.

 

Reasons to be concerned:

(1) Baseball is random and crazy stuff likes to happen in small samples.

(2) Injuries/COVID

(3) Joey Votto having a 2019 Yelich-like 2nd half.

(4) Cardinals voodoo.

(5) Wisconsin sports curse gets revenge for the Bucks.

 

It seems to me like the first list is mostly facts and the second list is mostly fears, but we're Brewers fans so I can understand worrying. If the lead gets to double-digits I think there will be some unclenching, at least temporarily.

 

Personally I'm most afraid of a 5-game divisional series. It's not as awful as the wild card game, but it doesn't take much bad luck to have the entire season go down the toilet.

 

While I generally agree with everything you said, I have just an itsy-bitsy issue with the bolded one. This year, the "expanded rosters" of September are only 28 guys, not the 40 or so guys that Counsell has used to this advantage in the past. While it IS an advantage, it is not remotely as big of an advantage as it used to be.

 

I still remember Doug Melvin (and others) trying to change the rule a decade ago (or longer) when the Brewers would be playing (and losing to) those teams with 38-40 guys on their roster while the Brewers kept to "maybe" 28 or 29 players. The disparity caused an unfair advantage, he said.

 

Funny how that was exactly how the Brewers managed to have outstanding September runs over the last few years to make the playoffs.

 

Edit just to add this:

Now, MAYBE the Brewers play "Roster Shuffle" and continually call up and send guys down in September to get fresh arms, etc. although I'm not sure how legal that is or how well it would work with requirements to be in the minors for 10-days (or whatever.) If so, well then Counsell would be working his magic once again.

[SomewhereInTime]

Reasons not to be concerned:

(1) The Brewers are very good + a completely different team from April.

(2) The Brewers are well coached and the organization is well run.

(3) The Brewers thrive when rosters expand.

(4) The competition is inferior and seems to be over-performing of late.

(5) It's hard to blow an 8-game lead this late in the year against mediocre competition.

 

Reasons to be concerned:

(1) Baseball is random and crazy stuff likes to happen in small samples.

(2) Injuries/COVID

(3) Joey Votto having a 2019 Yelich-like 2nd half.

(4) Cardinals voodoo.

(5) Wisconsin sports curse gets revenge for the Bucks.

 

It seems to me like the first list is mostly facts and the second list is mostly fears, but we're Brewers fans so I can understand worrying. If the lead gets to double-digits I think there will be some unclenching, at least temporarily.

 

Personally I'm most afraid of a 5-game divisional series. It's not as awful as the wild card game, but it doesn't take much bad luck to have the entire season go down the toilet.

 

While I generally agree with everything you said, I have just an itsy-bitsy issue with the bolded one. This year, the "expanded rosters" of September are only 28 guys, not the 40 or so guys that Counsell has used to this advantage in the past. While it IS an advantage, it is not remotely as big of an advantage as it used to be.

 

I still remember Doug Melvin (and others) trying to change the rule a decade ago (or longer) when the Brewers would be playing (and losing to) those teams with 38-40 guys on their roster while the Brewers kept to "maybe" 28 or 29 players. The disparity caused an unfair advantage, he said.

 

Funny how that was exactly how the Brewers managed to have outstanding September runs over the last few years to make the playoffs.

 

Edit just to add this:

Now, MAYBE the Brewers play "Roster Shuffle" and continually call up and send guys down in September to get fresh arms, etc. although I'm not sure how legal that is or how well it would work with requirements to be in the minors for 10-days (or whatever.) If so, well then Counsell would be working his magic once again.

 

I kind of think that undersells the teams of 2018 and 2019. Having a few extra arms for blowouts and extra defensive replacements and pinch runners wasn't why those teams won. The heavy lifting was still done by the core group of players.

[BruisedCrew]

 

Yes, if you're going to go with a realistic but pessimistic scenario, the Brewers go 18-25 to win 90 and the Reds go 26-17 to win 90.

 

But time is ticking and the Reds have been losing ground, not gaining it.

 

With 22 games against the Pirates, Cubs, and Marlins, the Reds could easily go better than 26-17 if they can beat the Cubs and Pirates at close to the same rate the Brewers beat them and add 4 or 5 wins against the Marlins. 16-6 in those 22 isn’t hard to see at all.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I mean, if the Reds go 33-10, what are you gonna do? They'll have earned it.

 

Even in that scenario, 27-16 gets it done for the Brewers, and that's definitely possible.

[djoctagone]

Now, MAYBE the Brewers play "Roster Shuffle" and continually call up and send guys down in September to get fresh arms, etc. although I'm not sure how legal that is or how well it would work with requirements to be in the minors for 10-days (or whatever.) If so, well then Counsell would be working his magic once again.

advantage with the class aaa season being extended into october, is that optioned players can stay sharp. yes, there would be a requisite 10 days down for any optioned player, but it might be advantageous for the brewers to mix up the pitchers in the 10 games against st. louis in september.