Remaining Schedules

[pacopete4]

If the Cards had 13 games against the Dodgers or Giants, who have two of the best three records in the NL, we’d be talking about their uphill climb against a tough schedule. Because it’s the Brewers, the other top-three team, it’s different?

 

[sarcasm]Of course it is. We are the Brewers so we can’t just be good.[/sarcasm]

[Eye Black]

I don't want to say the Padres are in trouble, but losing 3 in a row against the D-backs is rough and might be keeping the Reds from an insane amount of frustration since they have been playing quite well and haven't gotten anywhere against the Brewers. Unsurprisingly playing in the West the Padres remaining schedule looks pretty tough 4 games left against Arizona, 3 against the Rockies (but on the road), but everything else practically is playoff teams or teams still battling. The more I look at it, the more I like the Reds chances to snag that spot.

Yeah, the Padres have 19 games remaining against the Dodgers and Giants, and 9 games against the Astros-Phillies-Braves, I think they have good reason to be nervous about holding onto the final Wild Card spot.

[wibadgers23]

How wild would it be if the Padres missed out on the playoffs altogether? Just goes to show you that you can spend all the money you want and make all the wild trades you want but things still have to go your way and you still have to win ballgames. Doesn't help that they're in a brutal division too.

[igor67]

Another way to look at the Brewers remaining schedule. If they maintain their current lead against the Cards, they are probably done playing any team with a reason to play on September 8th. The Cards would be done mathematically then by September 20th and only the Mets might still be alive for something with 6 games to go, but they could easily be out of it by then too.

[rickh150]

If the Cards had 13 games against the Dodgers or Giants, who have two of the best three records in the NL, we’d be talking about their uphill climb against a tough schedule. Because it’s the Brewers, the other top-three team, it’s different?

 

[sarcasm]Of course it is. We are the Brewers so we can’t just be good.[/sarcasm]

 

Just say the division is over then. “Don’t be so sensitive” of those who say it is not quite over yet in mid August because of several different games played scenarios, whether perceived as rare or really, really rare. If we are so incorrect in our thinking, just say it’s over and stick with your opinion. Otherwise, you are just like the rest of us who have posted, in my humble opinion.

[pacopete4]

If the Cards had 13 games against the Dodgers or Giants, who have two of the best three records in the NL, we’d be talking about their uphill climb against a tough schedule. Because it’s the Brewers, the other top-three team, it’s different?

 

[sarcasm]Of course it is. We are the Brewers so we can’t just be good.[/sarcasm]

 

Just say the division is over then. “Don’t be so sensitive” of those who say it is not quite over yet in mid August because of several different games played scenarios, whether perceived as rare or really, really rare. If we are so incorrect in our thinking, just say it’s over and stick with your opinion. Otherwise, you are just like the rest of us who have posted, in my humble opinion.

Sounds like you’re being sensitive to a joke. Carry on with your drama.

[PeaveyFury]

Otherwise, you are just like the rest of us who have posted, in my humble opinion.

 

I think the continual issue here is that one of the sides of the views on this is backed by overwhelming statistical evidence, and the other requires a massively unlikely set of scenarios to unfold. As such, thinking that may actually happen requires a pretty grim view of the team's future performance, and I don't think there should be surprise that that grim view is viewed skeptically as a result.

 

So, yes. The division is statistically over. As others noted, the Reds and their fans have moved on to the wildcard, which is statistically more probable for them, and it's probably healthier for us to view it much the same.

[rickh150]

Otherwise, you are just like the rest of us who have posted, in my humble opinion.

 

I think the continual issue here is that one of the sides of the views on this is backed by overwhelming statistical evidence, and the other requires a massively unlikely set of scenarios to unfold. As such, thinking that may actually happen requires a pretty grim view of the team's future performance, and I don't think there should be surprise that that grim view is viewed skeptically as a result.

 

So, yes. The division is statistically over. As others noted, the Reds and their fans have moved on to the wildcard, which is statistically more probable for them, and it's probably healthier for us to view it much the same.

 

Fair enough…

[BruisedCrew]

Tatis is back today so that might help the Padres get out of their funk. He had a 2B and a HR in his first two ABs.

 

ETA: make that 2 HRs for Tatis

[BruisedCrew]

Otherwise, you are just like the rest of us who have posted, in my humble opinion.

 

I think the continual issue here is that one of the sides of the views on this is backed by overwhelming statistical evidence, and the other requires a massively unlikely set of scenarios to unfold. As such, thinking that may actually happen requires a pretty grim view of the team's future performance, and I don't think there should be surprise that that grim view is viewed skeptically as a result.

 

So, yes. The division is statistically over. As others noted, the Reds and their fans have moved on to the wildcard, which is statistically more probable for them, and it's probably healthier for us to view it much the same.

 

Again, you are misinterpreting the one “side” as saying that the that the 5-10% probability is going to happen, as opposed to just recognizing that things like it have happened.

 

But, now that you have declared the race statistically over, maybe you and your side can leave the other side to wallow in its misery while you stay regally above the discussion that you think has no merit.

[BruisedCrew]

 

Also, please point out where anybody has said the division is a sure thing. .

 

It hadn’t been said directly, but it was certainly implied by dismissing any suggestion that the Brewers could conceivably fail to win the division. But now it has been declared directly (see above).

[timpep]

I hesitate to use a 90% line to call something statistically certain. 538 gives the Brewers a 92% chance to win the division and a 10% chance to win the world series. I certainly don't think it's statistically over for our world series chances.

 

It's very likely we win the division and I am not going to really entertain the notion of a collapse until I see some evidence of it, but I'm not opening up my jolly good soda and celebrating just yet either. And as I pointed out if a 10% chance of something happening means it shouldn't be entertained then we shouldn't consider winning the world series as possible enough to consider. I just disagree.

[markedman5]

So we have our big 3 lined up to face the Cards who will counter with Wainwright, Mikolas(?) , and Flaherty.

 

Then I would guess we will throw Anderson, Lauer and Houser( Ashby if Houser isn’t ready for some reason) against the Nats…..which will conveniently give us Burnes, Freddy and Woody for the Reds series.

[PeaveyFury]

while you stay regally above the discussion that you think has no merit.

 

Ok? If by 'regally above the discussion' you mean that my understanding of statistical probabilities will keep me from wringing my hands over the next 6 weeks? No claim has been made that you can't believe the contrary. Just noting the fact that the division race is basically over to try and keep you from developing an ulcer.

 

But, if you care to disagree with the statistics, that's your prerogative, I guess.

[wibadgers23]

So we have our big 3 lined up to face the Cards who will counter with Wainwright, Mikolas(?) , and Flaherty.

 

Then I would guess we will throw Anderson, Lauer and Houser( Ashby if Houser isn’t ready for some reason) against the Nats…..which will conveniently give us Burnes, Freddy and Woody for the Reds series.

 

That’s what I was thinking too. You could also see some sort of Lauer/Houser tandem start and then Ashby start the other game.

[PeaveyFury]

I hesitate to use a 90% line to call something statistically certain. 538 gives the Brewers a 92% chance to win the division and a 10% chance to win the world series. I certainly don't think it's statistically over for our world series chances.

 

It's very likely we win the division and I am not going to really entertain the notion of a collapse until I see some evidence of it, but I'm not opening up my jolly good soda and celebrating just yet either. And as I pointed out if a 10% chance of something happening means it shouldn't be entertained then we shouldn't consider winning the world series as possible enough to consider. I just disagree.

 

This is where sites like the one you cite do a bit of a disservice by conveniently listing these probabilities side-by-side in a handy chart for reference- the calculation and variables that go into the numbers are wholly different. For example, for any division race, the n is 5. There can only be five possible outcomes. As the season moves on, the number of possible outcomes is gradually reduced due to the outcomes of the games- IE, in the NL Central at this point, there are now three truly possible outcomes. From there, the giant lead the Brewers have over the other two more or less leads to the probabilities.

 

For World Series odds, you start at 30, and whittle it down from there. As of today, there are STILL 14 teams with a 'chance' per that site of winning the WS. Obviously, by the time the Brewers play in the playoffs, if all holds constant for Milwaukee, four of those teams won't make the playoffs and their odds will get dispersed among the others. By the time the Brewers would play their first game in the playoffs, two of the WC teams would be out as well. If one of those losing WC teams was the Dodgers, then the Brewers' WS odds balloon. So, results-based variability remains because you have to factor in the outcomes of the series. IE, the Brewers WS odds are much lower if the Dodgers are still in the playoffs vs. not in, even if the Brewers aren't involved in ousting them. Hence, WS odds are great in that it shows that the Brewers are one of the favorites. But, it's a whole different statistical animal to project them at this point in the season than it is the division race at this point, which basically has three possible outcomes, which are essentially 'weighted' by record. Hence, statistically over.

[BruisedCrew]

while you stay regally above the discussion that you think has no merit.

 

Ok? If by 'regally above the discussion' you mean that my understanding of statistical probabilities will keep me from wringing my hands over the next 6 weeks? No claim has been made that you can't believe the contrary. Just noting the fact that the division race is basically over to try and keep you from developing an ulcer.

 

But, if you care to disagree with the statistics, that's your prerogative, I guess.

 

By “regally out of the discussion” I mean that if you consider the race to be over, it would make sense for you to stay out of this conversation and let people who want to participate do so instead of stirring things up.

 

I understand the probabilities perfectly, although I sometimes wonder exactly how these sites arrive at them. For example, how do they figure the probability of a team like the Brewers beating a team like the Cubs in their current state, which bears little resemblance to the team that played the first half of the season? Do their projections/simulations take into account the human reality that teams can fold under the pressure when things get tight? Or do they treat every game like an independent event, which would make losing stretches like ones encountered by the 2007 Mets or 2011 Res Sox virtually impossible mathematically. These probabilities are not the same as things that can be computed with certainty, like the probabilities of tossing a coin, rolling a pair of dice, or drawing from a deck of cards.

 

Even if I accept the conclusions of these sites that say the Brewers have a 90-95% chance of winning the division, I recognize that 90-95% is not 100%. If I were rolling a pair of dice and all I needed was a 4 or above to win, I would know that my probability of a win is 91.7%. So, I would expect to win, but wouldn’t bet my life on it. And recognizing that rolling a 2 or 3 is possible does not mean that I expect to roll a 2 or 3, as you seem to think.

 

Finally, don’t worry about me getting an ulcer from following sports the way I want. I’ve been doing it this way for many decades, and I am just fine. But, thank you for being concerned about my physical well being.

[BruisedCrew]

On the World Series probabilities, no matter how they compute them, the biggest factor at this time is going to be the probability of getting into the playoffs in the first place. For a team that wins a division, the probability of winning the World Series is going to be somewhere close to 1 in 8 (12.5%), unless the team is noticeably stronger or weaker than whoever they face in the playoff series. So, if the Brewers probability of winning the division now is 95%, I would expect their chances of winning the series to be about 11.8%, and I wouldn’t expect that to change much until the matchups are known. As of now, I wouldn’t think the Brewers would be significant favorites or underdogs against any of the likely playoff teams. Their chances of winning the series through the wild card route would be minimal because of the very low probability of the Brewers getting a wild card spot.

[PeaveyFury]

By “regally out of the discussion” I mean that if you consider the race to be over, it would make sense for you to stay out of this conversation and let people who want to participate do so instead of stirring things up.

 

I'm disheartened that presenting an opposing viewpoint that highlights the high probability of success of the Brewers and the statistical improbability of some of the doom and gloom scenarios that some are worried about is viewed as 'stirring the pot.' But, at this point it seems like it's pointless to continue to make the point to people, as the argument has been laid out there clearly for those that want to hear it. As such, I have no issues bowing out of your ongoing conversation.

 

The subsequent part of your post does suggest that you continue to not believe what the math is showing. Which, as I've said, is fine. You do you. But for the benefit of anyone else concerned about how realistic the possibility is that the Reds will overtake the Brewers this season, the fact remains that the division race is, essentially, over statistically. Does that mean it's impossible to blow it? Nope. Just that it's something that would literally happen less than a handful of times every 100 seasons, and hasn't happened in actuality in 26 years. Whether that's something you want to focus on for the next 6 weeks or not is up to you.

[rickh150]

while you stay regally above the discussion that you think has no merit.

 

Ok? If by 'regally above the discussion' you mean that my understanding of statistical probabilities will keep me from wringing my hands over the next 6 weeks? No claim has been made that you can't believe the contrary. Just noting the fact that the division race is basically over to try and keep you from developing an ulcer.

 

But, if you care to disagree with the statistics, that's your prerogative, I guess.

 

By “regally out of the discussion” I mean that if you consider the race to be over, it would make sense for you to stay out of this conversation and let people who want to participate do so instead of stirring things up.

 

I understand the probabilities perfectly, although I sometimes wonder exactly how these sites arrive at them. For example, how do they figure the probability of a team like the Brewers beating a team like the Cubs in their current state, which bears little resemblance to the team that played the first half of the season? Do their projections/simulations take into account the human reality that teams can fold under the pressure when things get tight? Or do they treat every game like an independent event, which would make losing stretches like ones encountered by the 2007 Mets or 2011 Res Sox virtually impossible mathematically. These probabilities are not the same as things that can be computed with certainty, like the probabilities of tossing a coin, rolling a pair of dice, or drawing from a deck of cards.

 

Even if I accept the conclusions of these sites that say the Brewers have a 90-95% chance of winning the division, I recognize that 90-95% is not 100%. If I were rolling a pair of dice and all I needed was a 4 or above to win, I would know that my probability of a win is 91.7%. So, I would expect to win, but wouldn’t bet my life on it. And recognizing that rolling a 2 or 3 is possible does not mean that I expect to roll a 2 or 3, as you seem to think.

 

Finally, don’t worry about me getting an ulcer from following sports the way I want. I’ve been doing it this way for many decades, and I am just fine. But, thank you for being concerned about my physical well being.

 

Love the passion….. now the odds are 98.5% to make playoffs. Kinda like the probability of rolling two ones (97.22%). The wild card likelihood, if we get caught, is what keeps this number way up. We have a 5 and a half game lead of the Padres (2nd WC) too. To lose out on playoffs, two out of these (Cards, Reds, Padres… or I guess 2nd place East team as long as other team is NL Central opponent) would have to finish ahead of us. With the Padres playing a tough schedule (check it out tough) and the Reds and Cards playing six times, the road is hard to get us out.

 

By the way, just rolled two dice…. A one and a four. Rolled them again…. Two ones.

[sveumrules]

now the odds are 98.5% to make playoffs. The wild card likelihood, if we get caught, is what keeps this number way up.

 

The Brewers Wild Card odds are 2.8% vs Division odds of 95.8%.

 

Those Division odds are doing exponentially more than the Brewers Wild Card odds to keep their overall Playoff odds way up so high.

[rickh150]

now the odds are 98.5% to make playoffs. The wild card likelihood, if we get caught, is what keeps this number way up.

 

The Brewers Wild Card odds are 2.8% vs Division odds of 95.8%.

 

Those Division odds are doing exponentially more than the Brewers Wild Card odds to keep their overall Playoff odds way up so high.

 

I agree… just meant WC increases odds of playoffs even more with a number very close to 100%.

[wibadgers23]

About half of our remaining games are against the Cardinals, Giants and Dodgers (20 games). If we go around .500 or even slightly below in those games we should be just fine. The rest of the teams we play include the Twins, Cubs, Nationals, Tigers, etc which are all very winnable series.

[Eye Black]

I typically use this website to follow the draft order, but they also have a page that breaks down remaining strength of schedule:

 

MLB Strength of Schedule (Tankathon)

 

The Brewers are listed as having the 6th toughest remaining schedule in MLB (4th in the NL). I like that the site lists out each team’s six remaining games against the toughest opponents and there are a lot of Brewers logos throughout that page for other teams.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

I typically use this website to follow the draft order, but they also have a page that breaks down remaining strength of schedule:

 

MLB Strength of Schedule (Tankathon)

 

The Brewers are listed as having the 6th toughest remaining schedule in MLB (4th in the NL). I like that the site lists out each team’s six remaining games against the toughest opponents and there are a lot of Brewers logos throughout that page for other teams.

 

Perfect opportunity to show the league why we are one of the best!