Remaining Schedules

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

2014 was just evil. But that team felt like smoke and mirrors all season too.

 

I will always be nervous until the Brewers clinch. That year amped up my anxiety on division leads and made me realize how long the season really is.

 

This 19 game stretch against Cubs, Pirates, Cards, Nats, Reds, Twins will go a long way toward how I feel about September. If we can put up like a 13-6 and keep at an 8-game lead, then I'll feel very confident. 6 games or under I'll be nervous. Totally arbitrary, but September is just a weird month. Always feels like some scrub team gets hot and relishes spoiler and then a bunch of other teams are just giving away games. 4-0 start. Let's get to 6 tomorrow.

[BruisedCrew]

87.5% playoff odds at Fangraphs to make playoffs on Aug. 19, 2014

Leading Cards by 2 and1/2

Ahead of Giants by 5 and Braves by 5 and 1/2

 

But 2 1/2 is less than 8.

 

 

Just stating what was going on then….

 

Also remember that the Brewers lost not only the division, but also the wild card race in which they had the 5 game lead over the Giants, who ended up winning the World Series.

 

And not only did they not make the playoffs, they weren’t even in the running at the end. They finished 8 games behind the Cardinals and 6 games behind the Giants and Pirates, who won the wild card spots.

[brewcrewdue80]

Just go look at the 2014 Brewers SPs and RPs and their ERA+ vs the 2021 Brewers Pitching ERA+ This year's #5 and 6 are having better seasons than that years #1. Zach Duke led the RP with 155ERA+ We currently have at least 6 that are better than that.

In Ranking terms. 2021 Pitching #2 in the League 2014 Pitching #10.

That teams Deadline deal was Geraldo Parra. That is it.

 

Just look how the additions of Adames, Tellez, and Escobar have improved the team's offense.

[igor67]

Some other reasons to be pretty optimistic. We've already seen that the pitchers by themselves can basically play .500 ball for 6 weeks. And While nothing is guaranteed they did with stand 1 significant Covid outbreak. And we seem to have developed into a pretty consistent finisher since Stearns came on board, which seems tied to actual changes (like more rest and usage patterns) so it's not just luck. I think the playoffs odds have it about right. The Brewers could play some mediocre baseball for a month and the Reds could get really hot. Or the Brewers could play OK and the Reds play historically well for a month.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If there's a team that will catch the Brewers for the division, it's the cardinals because they play them 13 times yet. The Reds only having 3 games left against the Brewers leaves them with a must sweep in that series to make things interesting, otherwise they are treading water or even losing ground with no more head to head opportunities left.

 

A huge reason the Brewers were able to make up so much ground in 2018 and 2019...even 2017 when they made things interesting against the Cubs was they had 2-3 series against them down the stretch AND they won or swept those series. The Reds don't have that opportunity - the Cards do but are probably too far behind a Brewers team that isn't flawed enough to go in the tank with their remaining slate of games.

[PeaveyFury]

'I'm not expecting it to happen'-posters

'Here's the one super rare scenario that makes me think it might happen'- same posters

[pacopete4]

'I'm not expecting it to happen'-posters

'Here's the one super rare scenario that makes me think it might happen'- same posters

This was good. I agree. Some want to be shielded no matter how good we are doing.

[BruisedCrew]

'I'm not expecting it to happen'-posters

'Here's the one super rare scenario that makes me think it might happen'- same posters

This was good. I agree. Some want to be shielded no matter how good we are doing.

 

Teams gaining or losing 7 or 8 games in the standings over the last quarter of the season is far from “super rare”. The fact that it has happened several times involving the Brewers in their history should be enough to establish that. A lot can happen to a team in 7 weeks including major slumps, injuries, and unforseeable hot streaks by opponents.

 

If you want to assume the Brewers are going to win the division, feel free. But I don’t understand the compulsion to ridicule others who take a more cautious approach.

[pacopete4]

'I'm not expecting it to happen'-posters

'Here's the one super rare scenario that makes me think it might happen'- same posters

This was good. I agree. Some want to be shielded no matter how good we are doing.

 

Teams gaining or losing 7 or 8 games in the standings over the last quarter of the season is far from “super rare”. The fact that it has happened several times involving the Brewers in their history should be enough to establish that. A lot can happen to a team in 7 weeks including major slumps, injuries, and unforseeable hot streaks by opponents.

 

If you want to assume the Brewers are going to win the division, feel free. But I don’t understand the compulsion to ridicule others who take a more cautious approach.

 

Try to not be so sensitive. But my own opinion of you is you’re looking for anything to cling to the Brewers not being as good as they are. I think you desperately want the Reds to make this close and possibly win the division so that you can try to tell everyone you were right all along. But that’s just my opinion and if it is true, I think it truly stinks that you or other Brewers fans are like that.

[BruisedCrew]

If there's a team that will catch the Brewers for the division, it's the cardinals because they play them 13 times yet. The Reds only having 3 games left against the Brewers leaves them with a must sweep in that series to make things interesting, otherwise they are treading water or even losing ground with no more head to head opportunities left.

 

A huge reason the Brewers were able to make up so much ground in 2018 and 2019...even 2017 when they made things interesting against the Cubs was they had 2-3 series against them down the stretch AND they won or swept those series. The Reds don't have that opportunity - the Cards do but are probably too far behind a Brewers team that isn't flawed enough to go in the tank with their remaining slate of games.

 

The Brewers went 4-2 against the Cubs in September of 2018, so they only picked up 2 games from the 6 game deficit they faced in late August that way. They made up the rest by winning 19 of their last 24 games against teams other than the Cubs, while the Cubs just went 15-11 in their last 26 games against teams other than the Brewers.

 

In 2019, the Brewers picked up 3 games on the Cubs by beating them in 5 of 7 games, but still trailed them by 2 games in the wild card race. The Brewers then left the Cubs in the dust by winning 15 of their last 20 while the Cubs finished 8-12.

 

One of the main premises of this thread is that the Reds have an opportunity to gain ground by beating on teams like the Pirates, Cubs, and Marlins while the Brewers are playing tougher opponents. It might be easier for them to pick up ground that way than by beating the Brewers head to head, though they have proven to be more than capable of winning games at AFF. They can definitely make things interesting without sweeping the upcoming series.

[PeaveyFury]

I think that when you clearly state that no one is expecting it to happen, then follow that up with numerous posts stating why you think it might happen, it's worth noting the contradiction there.

 

As I said, I think we're compelled as Wisconsin sports fans to assume the worst-case scenario. I had hoped that the Bucks' run would have eliminated some of that mindset, is all.

[BruisedCrew]

 

Teams gaining or losing 7 or 8 games in the standings over the last quarter of the season is far from “super rare”. The fact that it has happened several times involving the Brewers in their history should be enough to establish that. A lot can happen to a team in 7 weeks including major slumps, injuries, and unforseeable hot streaks by opponents.

 

If you want to assume the Brewers are going to win the division, feel free. But I don’t understand the compulsion to ridicule others who take a more cautious approach.

 

Try to not be so sensitive. But my own opinion of you is you’re looking for anything to cling to the Brewers not being as good as they are. I think you desperately want the Reds to make this close and possibly win the division so that you can try to tell everyone you were right all along. But that’s just my opinion and if it is true, I think it truly stinks that you or other Brewers fans are like that.

 

You couldn’t be more wrong. You actually think I am sitting here rooting for the Reds to win and the Brewers to lose. Incredible.

 

I think it stinks that you and others can’t let other fans enjoy and follow a season the way they want.

[adambr2]

I think that when you clearly state that no one is expecting it to happen, then follow that up with numerous posts stating why you think it might happen, it's worth noting the contradiction there.

 

As I said, I think we're compelled as Wisconsin sports fans to assume the worst-case scenario. I had hoped that the Bucks' run would have eliminated some of that mindset, is all.

 

The Bucks championship definitely helped with me get over that "hear we go again" feeling with Wisconsin sports.

 

Up until recently I would feel like we are destined to blow it, just based on the "curse" of Wisconsin sports. I realize that's silly, and not a real thing, but after do many heartbreaks the last 10 years it started to feel inevitable.

 

So the Bucks championship is a huge weight off the shoulders in that regard.

 

I think this Brewers team is good enough to win a World Series. I realize that that is an incredibly hard thing to do and if it doesn't happen it's only because there are other teams good enough to win it all too and we'll try again next year.

 

But it sure would be wonderful if it does. At least get there. Or, at worst, don't let us go down to a team like the freaking Dodgers with every possible competitive advantage in the world.

[timpep]

I think the Reds schedule is pretty favorable for them. I don't think they catch the Brewers but I hope they keep winning and catch the Padres or the Dodgers. The top 3 NL West teams are going to be beating themselves up in September.

 

I would love to get the top seed and play the Reds round 1, and the braves or Mets round 2.

[BruisedCrew]

I think that when you clearly state that no one is expecting it to happen, then follow that up with numerous posts stating why you think it might happen, it's worth noting the contradiction there.

 

As I said, I think we're compelled as Wisconsin sports fans to assume the worst-case scenario. I had hoped that the Bucks' run would have eliminated some of that mindset, is all.

 

There is no contradiction there at all. Recognizing that something might happen is not at all the same as expecting it to happen.

[PeaveyFury]

I think that when you clearly state that no one is expecting it to happen, then follow that up with numerous posts stating why you think it might happen, it's worth noting the contradiction there.

 

As I said, I think we're compelled as Wisconsin sports fans to assume the worst-case scenario. I had hoped that the Bucks' run would have eliminated some of that mindset, is all.

 

There is no contradiction there at all. Recognizing that something might happen is not at all the same as expecting it to happen.

 

When you repeat your reasoning for why it might happen over and over, it suggests that you're not just pointing out that it might happen, but rather than you think it's more likely than it actually is. Just IMO.

 

EDIT: Just to add, I DO NOT think anyone is rooting for it to happen at all. But I DO think a lot of people are assuming it will and are underestimating how unlikely it actually is.

[FidoMcCokefiend]

Try to not be so sensitive. But my own opinion of you is you’re looking for anything to cling to the Brewers not being as good as they are. I think you desperately want the Reds to make this close and possibly win the division so that you can try to tell everyone you were right all along. But that’s just my opinion and if it is true, I think it truly stinks that you or other Brewers fans are like that.

 

You see, he's been on the site posting regularly for 8 years specifically waiting for this moment. Waiting for the exact right season. Waiting in the shadows for just the right time to highlight the super controversial position that a lead in August doesn't guarantee a playoff appearance. Then he'll spend the rest of the season secretly hoping the Brewers lose and miss the playoffs so he can point and yell "SEE I WAS RIGHT".

 

Galaxy brain stuff man.

[pacopete4]

Try to not be so sensitive. But my own opinion of you is you’re looking for anything to cling to the Brewers not being as good as they are. I think you desperately want the Reds to make this close and possibly win the division so that you can try to tell everyone you were right all along. But that’s just my opinion and if it is true, I think it truly stinks that you or other Brewers fans are like that.

 

You see, he's been on the site posting regularly for 8 years specifically waiting for this moment. Waiting for the exact right season. Waiting in the shadows for just the right time to highlight the super controversial position that a lead in August doesn't guarantee a playoff appearance. Then he'll spend the rest of the season secretly hoping the Brewers lose and miss the playoffs so he can point and yell "SEE I WAS RIGHT".

 

Galaxy brain stuff man.

 

He’s been posting since a few weeks before the all-star break about the Reds being the superior team. Posting on a site for 8 years has nothing to do with how I perceive his posts right now. His tune hasn’t really changed. Just pivoting to how we will blow it now.

[areacodes]

'I'm not expecting it to happen'-posters

'Here's the one super rare scenario that makes me think it might happen'- same posters

This was good. I agree. Some want to be shielded no matter how good we are doing.

 

Teams gaining or losing 7 or 8 games in the standings over the last quarter of the season is far from “super rare”. The fact that it has happened several times involving the Brewers in their history should be enough to establish that. A lot can happen to a team in 7 weeks including major slumps, injuries, and unforseeable hot streaks by opponents.

 

If you want to assume the Brewers are going to win the division, feel free. But I don’t understand the compulsion to ridicule others who take a more cautious approach.

 

How often do teams lose a 7-8 game lead over the last quarter of the season?

[OldHeidelberg]

We went from in cruise control to out of it so fast in 2008(yes Mets bailed us out) and 2014 that it's hard not to worry it could happen again. This year the starting pitching should make us slump proof though so not really worried but not pulling for Reds to beat Braves/Phillies for playoff matchup scenario's yet either.

[BruisedCrew]

Try to not be so sensitive. But my own opinion of you is you’re looking for anything to cling to the Brewers not being as good as they are. I think you desperately want the Reds to make this close and possibly win the division so that you can try to tell everyone you were right all along. But that’s just my opinion and if it is true, I think it truly stinks that you or other Brewers fans are like that.

 

You see, he's been on the site posting regularly for 8 years specifically waiting for this moment. Waiting for the exact right season. Waiting in the shadows for just the right time to highlight the super controversial position that a lead in August doesn't guarantee a playoff appearance. Then he'll spend the rest of the season secretly hoping the Brewers lose and miss the playoffs so he can point and yell "SEE I WAS RIGHT".

 

Galaxy brain stuff man.

 

He’s been posting since a few weeks before the all-star break about the Reds being the superior team. Posting on a site for 8 years has nothing to do with how I perceive his posts right now. His tune hasn’t really changed. Just pivoting to how we will blow it now.

 

Yeah, I did say while the Reds were winning 6 of 7 at AFF before the All Star break that the Reds looked like a better team with their solidified starting rotation and potent lineup. That changed when the Brewers swept the series in Cincy and the Reds lost Castellanos for a month in the process.

 

But, I still don’t see how you guys can translate “It isn’t over yet” into “The Brewers will blow it”, and how you can interpret my comments on this thread and others as me desperately wanting the Brewers to blow it. That’s as ludicrous as your claim that I wanted to run the Brewers pitchers into the ground because I suggested some minor tinkering with the rotation to get Burnes into the 4 game series at AFF against the Reds.

[PeaveyFury]

Ok guys, back to discussion regarding remaining schedules.

[BruisedCrew]

 

Teams gaining or losing 7 or 8 games in the standings over the last quarter of the season is far from “super rare”. The fact that it has happened several times involving the Brewers in their history should be enough to establish that. A lot can happen to a team in 7 weeks including major slumps, injuries, and unforseeable hot streaks by opponents.

 

If you want to assume the Brewers are going to win the division, feel free. But I don’t understand the compulsion to ridicule others who take a more cautious approach.

 

How often do teams lose a 7-8 game lead over the last quarter of the season?

 

I referred to gaining or losing 7 or 8 games in the standings, not just losing 7 or 8 game leads in a division or wild card race. But, even if you limit it that way, there have been several examples of leads that big and larger being lost mentioned in this thread, some in less than 45 games. I guess part of it depends on what one considers to be “super rare”. Even if you accept the 90-95% percentage that come from some of these estimations, I don’t consider something that happens 5-10% of the time to be “super rare”.

[PeaveyFury]

I don’t consider something that happens 5-10% of the time to be “super rare”.

 

I mean, to put it in perspective that would literally mean that out of 100 hypothetical MLB seasons, it would happen 5-10 times in every 100 years. That's basically super rare.

 

The Brewers are at 96%ish right now. If they were in this exact same position for the next 100 seasons, they'd make the playoffs 96 of those 100 years. The problem is, and the counter-argument being made is that it feels like our fan base feels like those 4 times they wouldn't will take place every single year.

[sveumrules]

Teams gaining or losing 7 or 8 games in the standings over the last quarter of the season is far from “super rare”.

 

How often do teams lose a 7-8 game lead over the last quarter of the season?

 

There were 20 full seasons / 60 division races from 2000-19. The largest division leads as of August 15th blown during that stretch were 2006 Tigers at 6.5 games & 2012 Rangers at 6.0 games.

 

Of the 60 races, there were 21 that were separated by between 6-9 games as of August 15th, the other 19 held.

 

The only recent team to blow a division lead over 7.5 games as of August 15th were the California Angels in 1995.