Remaining Schedules

[DHonks]

Yeah, they would have to go on a run. But it is not a reach at all.

Schedule….

7 Cubs

7 Pirates

13 Brewers

3 Royals

2 Tigers

 

Also, out last 6 games are in St. Louis and Dodgers…..

 

Wasn’t it 2011 when the Cards were like 10 back of the playoffs entering September, wound up winning the wild card, beating the Brewers in NLCS, and winning the series? Need to step on those cockroaches while they’re still sputtering

[MrTPlush]

Yeah, they would have to go on a run. But it is not a reach at all.

Schedule….

7 Cubs

7 Pirates

13 Brewers

3 Royals

2 Tigers

 

Also, out last 6 games are in St. Louis and Dodgers…..

 

It is a massive reach...possible? Sure, but it is incredibly unlikely. Not only would they have to catch on fire, but they would need an epic collapse from us at the same time. Our 2018 run was massive and we needed a Game 163 to seal the deal. At this point in 2018 we were like 2-3 games down and the worst was 5 games back in early September (I think).

 

That being said I hope the Cards still feel like they have a shot because they play the Reds 6 more times.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Cards also have 4 games left against the Dodgers, 6 against the Reds, and 3 against the Mets and Padres....Not to mention 13 against the best team in the NL.

 

I can see them making a run at a wild card spot if the Pads keep scuffling and the Reds cool off, but they're not making up 11 games in the standings with their schedule. Not against this Brewers team.

[sveumrules]

Division Odds take remaining schedules into account & the current percentages are...

 

PECOTA: MIL 97.7% | CIN 2.3% | STL 0%

 

FanGraphs: MIL 95.9% | CIN 3.8% | STL 0.3%

 

538: MIL 94% | CIN 5% | STL 1%

 

Things can always change, but at the moment we aren't really in a division battle with anyone.

[adambr2]

Yeah, they would have to go on a run. But it is not a reach at all.

Schedule….

7 Cubs

7 Pirates

13 Brewers

3 Royals

2 Tigers

 

Also, out last 6 games are in St. Louis and Dodgers…..

 

Wasn’t it 2011 when the Cards were like 10 back of the playoffs entering September, wound up winning the wild card, beating the Brewers in NLCS, and winning the series? Need to step on those cockroaches while they’re still sputtering

 

Yes, they were 8.5 back in September and caught the Braves, because the Braves went 9-18 in September.

 

If we have a massive collapse like that, there will likely be teams that catch us.

 

If we play even .500 baseball the rest of the way, we should be just fine.

 

For perspective our worst 27 game stretch this season was 10-17, but we were a much different team.

[StearnsFTW]

Having players miss games is the only reason the Reds gained on us last week. Easily lost 2 games with the replacements and it was 3 wasn't it? That'd have been a 1game gain on the Reds then vs a 2 game loss. Truthfully, losing 2 games to the Giants helps them win the NL West. I have more confidence facing the Giants in a series than Dodgers and Padres for the fact that the Best players reside on those teams who could carry an offense. SF just has a group outperforming but imo don't have that take a game over hitting ability(Yelich was that role in '18/'19) The SPs held the Giants to 3Runs in 18IP. Would favor the Brewers so much with that side of the matchup. Add the proper group of Bullpen guys available to pitch every game feel we stand a good chance to sweep SF.

 

Agree with everything you say here, but a Dodgers/Brewers NLCS feels inevitable to me, barring injury.

[rickh150]

It’s unlikely, but so was 2014. The Brewers ended going 9-22… scoring 2 or less runs 17 of those 31 games. With our offensive ups and downs this year, along with seemingly multiple guys going on the IL daily, it is a possible.

[StearnsFTW]

Yeah, they would have to go on a run. But it is not a reach at all.

Schedule….

7 Cubs

7 Pirates

13 Brewers

3 Royals

2 Tigers

 

Also, out last 6 games are in St. Louis and Dodgers…..

 

It is a massive reach...possible? Sure, but it is incredibly unlikely. Not only would they have to catch on fire, but they would need an epic collapse from us at the same time. Our 2018 run was massive and we needed a Game 163 to seal the deal. At this point in 2018 we were like 2-3 games down and the worst was 5 games back in early September (I think).

 

That being said I hope the Cards still feel like they have a shot because they play the Reds 6 more times.

 

Agree with the point. Brewers were 6 back on August 28th, 5 back on September 1, which was their largest deficit in September. The Brewers only lost a game in the standings 6 times in September (one was a half game on an off day), which is pretty amazing.

[dlk9s]

The bottom line is that it is possible for the Cards to catch us, but at the same time, we are most certainly NOT in a division battle with them right now.

[PeaveyFury]

It is sad that as fans of Wisconsin sports we seem to always assume the worst possible scenario. I'd have thought the Bucks might have broken us of that, but perhaps not.

[dlk9s]

I mean, at this point, we're not even in a division battle with the Reds. It would take a massive collapse by the Brewers or a hell of a run by the Reds for the Brewers not to win the division.

[StearnsFTW]

It is sad that as fans of Wisconsin sports we seem to always assume the worst possible scenario. I'd have thought the Bucks might have broken us of that, but perhaps not.

 

I agree. If you had asked me on June 1st who had the better chance to win it all between the Brewers and Bucks, I'd have picked the Brewers.

 

This is the most confident I've been in a Brewers team since 1982. And I believe this team is better-equipped for the playoffs than that one was.

[BruisedCrew]

It is sad that as fans of Wisconsin sports we seem to always assume the worst possible scenario. I'd have thought the Bucks might have broken us of that, but perhaps not.

 

I don’t think anyone is assuming the worst possible scenario. Just not counting any chickens and recognizing that there are a lot of games left to be played.

 

The next 5 series, which include the first of the 4 series with the Cardinals and the last series with the Reds, could tell us a lot. If the Brewers can keep the lead around 7-9 games their position will still look strong. But, if it slips down to 5 or less, a lot of people are going to be looking more closely at those September schedules and realize that the Reds have a golden opportunity to pile up wins and tighten things up.

[gebc1997]

At least for me, I think the anxiousness about holding on to the lead is the fact that we are supposed to win the division now. All pundits and experts say nobody is catching the Brewers. Therefore, anything less than a division win will seem like I kick in the pants, and a major let down.

[yfinn6]

Who was the poster who was (annoyingly) adamant that the Brewers would win the division in 2014 and then "disappeared" when they didn't?

[wibadgers23]

I can’t help but remember 2014 when we had a lead in the division in August and then we completely flopped the rest of the way and didn’t even finish .500 if I remember correctly. We didn’t have nearly the lead we have now but those things are hard to forget.

[yfinn6]

It seemed like I remember the collapse of 2014 happening well before the All-Star break, we just came into the break in first place and with a good record. I don't want to look it up because that summer really sucked as a Brewers fan.

[wibadgers23]

It seemed like I remember the collapse of 2014 happening well before the All-Star break, we just came into the break in first place and with a good record. I don't want to look it up because that summer really sucked as a Brewers fan.

 

I thought we were playing really good up until about early to mid-August. We took 3 of 4 in LA against the Dodgers and then the collapse happened shortly afterward. But yeah, not a fun year to re-live.

[sveumrules]

Looking back on the 2014 schedule it looks like the Brewers biggest lead was 6.5 games on June 28th, still smaller than our current lead. FanGraphs historical playoff odds had them at 57.4% to win the division at that point.

 

Their biggest August lead looks to have been 2.5 games after a five game winning streak ending August 19th. FanGraphs historical playoff odds had them at 50.9% to win the division at that point.

 

Our current division odds are around 94-98%. This team is just much better than the 2014 team was. They would have to go 12-34 to finish 82-80 like 2014 team did.

[rickh150]

87.5% playoff odds at Fangraphs to make playoffs on Aug. 19, 2014

Leading Cards by 2 and1/2

Ahead of Giants by 5 and Braves by 5 and 1/2

[PeaveyFury]

87.5% playoff odds at Fangraphs to make playoffs on Aug. 19, 2014

Leading Cards by 2 and1/2

Ahead of Giants by 5 and Braves by 5 and 1/2

 

But 2 1/2 is less than 8.

[rickh150]

87.5% playoff odds at Fangraphs to make playoffs on Aug. 19, 2014

Leading Cards by 2 and1/2

Ahead of Giants by 5 and Braves by 5 and 1/2

 

But 2 1/2 is less than 8.

 

 

Just stating what was going on then….

[markedman5]

I never assume anything…….Reds have an easy schedule and are playing well.

 

Realistically the Padres should be a lot more nervous then the Brewers…….at least right now.

[brewcrewdue80]

Pitching is just way too good to blow their current lead. Lets be serious, if Yelich is batting any kind of season similar to those in Miami, Milw is the WS favorites at this moment. We wouldn't need MVP Yelich. That is how far he's fallen.

 

No reason whatsoever as it stands to believe Milw would lose the Division. 60pct of these games Milw is throwing a top 10 in all of baseball Starting Pitcher to win us games. Not #2s and 3s like a Lohse and Gallardo. Legit aces 3 outta 5 man rotation. Followed with 3s Anderson, Lauer, and Houser. The Brewers have the best RP to close a game in Hader in a few categories. 2014 didnt contain this. The bullpen was littered with awful.

 

Still in favor of Cincy beating out the Padres for the Playoffs due to their remaining schedule though as I pointed out earlier San Diego would reach close to 50 games straight without facing a team above 500. They could go on an 8-10game winning streak and make it tougher for Cincy.

[FidoMcCokefiend]

It seemed like I remember the collapse of 2014 happening well before the All-Star break, we just came into the break in first place and with a good record. I don't want to look it up because that summer really sucked as a Brewers fan.

 

I thought we were playing really good up until about early to mid-August. We took 3 of 4 in LA against the Dodgers and then the collapse happened shortly afterward. But yeah, not a fun year to re-live.

The 1-11 stretch right before the all star break (6/29 - 7/12) was the start of the collapse. The 3-16 stretch late august (8/20-9/9) ended it.

 

If you ever want to stump a Brewer fan, ask them what season they were in 1st place the most days. 159 days in first including the entire stretch from April 5th to August 31st, and still managed to finish 8GB out in 3rd. Just an unreal season.