Remaining Schedules

[rickh150]

but don’t try to tell me (as some have) that a division or wild card leading team losing more than 8 games in the standings over the course of a month is a once every few decades event, because that simply isn’t true.

 

Except it really and truly is, literally based on historical results. You clearly have chosen to believe that the vastly improbable is less improbable than it actually is, which is fine. But that's what I and others were saying weeks ago. Just own it- you have every right to believe 'it's not over until it's over,' but it just means you don't trust the Brewers to finish this out. Which, again as noted, some fans of Wisconsin sports inherently believe based on a long history of near-misses. But, it's over for all intents and purposes. Doesn't mean it can't happen, just means is almost certainly won't.

 

Are we talking over the course of ANY month or just the last month of the season? Over the last month of the season, the results of blowing an 8 game division lead are few and far between. I think jsonline had and article on that recently.

 

However, In the course of a season, it happens far more often. The division leading Cubs lost 10 games on the Brewers from June 24 to July 24. The second WC Padres lost 8 games on the Reds from July 26 to August 26. The Rays gained 8 and a half games on the then division leading Red Sox over the last month. And this is just picking a few teams and doing 10 min. of scanning the standings for this season alone.

[PeaveyFury]

Late in the season, rick. The assumption is that by that point, the division leaders have clearly established themselves as legitimate contenders with viable talent and expected success. A lead early in the season, for example, has a higher potential to be fluky or influenced by other longer-term factors.

[rickh150]

You have raised this point countless times, but I totally fail to see how the Packers, Bucks, or Badgers have anything to do with how a lot of fans react to the Brewers.

 

It's been raised because it's a concept discussed widely, both here and all over social media.

 

viewtopic.php?f=156&t=38480

 

Including the Bucks' championship run, the assumption from a lot of people was that what could go wrong would. And in a lot of ways, that was true historically. Our teams have had a terrible string of performing exceptionally well, and finding a way to fall short of the ultimate prize. Perhaps you're not in the same boat, but many of those/us fans root for multiple Wisconsin sports teams, hence an inherent link between most fans of Wisconsin sports teams.

 

But, the continued item at hand here is that you're posting on a Brewers message board where many/most have accepted the fact that the Brewers are almost certainly going to win the division, and not only do you continue to not believe that, you continue to challenge anyone who says otherwise. Again, this is a Brewers message board, and you're challenging actual historical results and statistical probabilities. I don't think you should be terribly surprised that at this point in the season people 1)don't share your view, and 2)are more than a little bewildered at how insistent you continue to be that the division is still a race and the Reds may catch us.

 

In short, that has to either be a indicative of a negative/concerned view of the situation the Brewers are in, or, as you put it, 'stirring the pot.' The latter is obviously more problematic, but no one has said you can't believe the former. Just own it, and don't be so surprised when other people here disagree.

 

You guys are in the same boat. Both are saying it’s probably over. PeavyFury won’t say it’s absolutely over because he knows there is a very small chance that the Reds could catch us. And at no time did BruisedCrew say the Reds will catch us, although others are trying to paint his views that way.

[pacopete4]

He’s been on the Reds bandwagon since the AS break. He’s just branding it differently these days. It’ll soon be over and many of his novels about it will go by the wayside.

[BruisedCrew]

You have raised this point countless times, but I totally fail to see how the Packers, Bucks, or Badgers have anything to do with how a lot of fans react to the Brewers.

 

It's been raised because it's a concept discussed widely, both here and all over social media.

 

viewtopic.php?f=156&t=38480

 

Including the Bucks' championship run, the assumption from a lot of people was that what could go wrong would. And in a lot of ways, that was true historically. Our teams have had a terrible string of performing exceptionally well, and finding a way to fall short of the ultimate prize. Perhaps you're not in the same boat, but many of those/us fans root for multiple Wisconsin sports teams, hence an inherent link between most fans of Wisconsin sports teams.

 

But, the continued item at hand here is that you're posting on a Brewers message board where many/most have accepted the fact that the Brewers are almost certainly going to win the division, and not only do you continue to not believe that, you continue to challenge anyone who says otherwise. Again, this is a Brewers message board, and you're challenging actual historical results and statistical probabilities. I don't think you should be terribly surprised that at this point in the season people 1)don't share your view, and 2)are more than a little bewildered at how insistent you continue to be that the division is still a race and the Reds may catch us.

 

In short, that has to either be a indicative of a negative/concerned view of the situation the Brewers are in, or, as you put it, 'stirring the pot.' The latter is obviously more problematic, but no one has said you can't believe the former. Just own it, and don't be so surprised when other people here disagree.

 

Again, do you have any actual experience that tells you that Wisconsin sports fans are significantly different than others?

 

Your sidestepping of that direct question tells me that the answer is no.

 

Just eyeballing that thread tells me that I don’t have the same “Wisconsin sports” paranoia that some on that thread do. For starters, I not only don’t root for the Badgers, I actively root against them just because people assume that if you live in Wisconsin you must love Bucky. It never occurs to them that some people have allegiances with schools they actually attended, including ones that are rivals of the Badgers.

 

And for all of those heartbreaks listed for the Packers, there are ones like the Seahawks game that I consider one of the most crushing losses that a team I root for has ever suffered. But several of the others are just disappointing losses that are going to happen to a team that makes the playoffs almost every year. But, at least I know the feeling of seeing the Packers win the ultimate prize.

 

But, the Brewers have always been my favorite team, largely because I can actually attend their games on a somewhat regular basis and have done so with our daughters for many years. But, unlike the Packers, the Brewers playoff opportunities have been pretty rare, and even some of those have only come after seeing very favorable positions turn sour in the last month before resulting in final day success.

[PeaveyFury]

Sorry, no sidestepping intended, I didn’t answer initially because I didn’t realize that wasn’t rhetorical. No, I don’t have experience living in another market where all of the sports teams were concurrently successful but unable to actually win titles. Which ones were you exposed to?

[homer]

I feel pretty good about the Brewers chances to win the Division. It's not a 100% lock of course but the odds are very good.

[BruisedCrew]

Sorry, no sidestepping intended, I didn’t answer initially because I didn’t realize that was relevant. No, I don’t have experience living in another market where all of the sports teams were concurrently successful but unable to actually win titles. Which ones were you exposed to?

 

I have lived in or near New York, Philadelphia, and Detroit, and have friends who are fans of teams there and in many other places. I know that my attitude of not taking anything for granted is not unique to being a Wisconsin native. Nothing compares to the “woe is us” attitude of Lions fans, and multiple championships by the Tigers, Pistons, and Red Wings haven’t affected that.

 

We all live close enough to know how Cubs fans were before they won the series. I didn’t sense that six Bulls titles caused them to suddenly become more positive about the Cubs.

[BruisedCrew]

I feel pretty good about the Brewers chances to win the Division. It's not a 100% lock of course but the odds are very good.

 

Nobody has disagreed with that.

 

I hope we don’t have to find out how people will feel if the Brewers suddenly find their lead cut by 4 or 5 games in the space of a week like we have seen in some previous Septembers. Most fans who have witnessed that (including in the years before Internet playoff probability projections) know that it isn’t fun and would love to avoid even the hint of it.

[DuWayne Steurer]

At what point is the possibility of something infinitely small enough that arguing about it almost daily is unnecessarily repetetive? Right now the Reds division odds are 0.8%

 

Yes, there is a "chance" they could win the division. It's less than one in one hundred. I mean, if someone really wants to break down each series, and the starters, and how much that increases the Reds odds of catching the Brewers, by all means, but at this point in the season, it's not 100%, but it's pretty darn close.

 

I'm also going to add..... you don't have to convince anyone (that I know of) that the division is not yet technically clinched. There's a magic number thread standing at 23 (IIRC). But as has been pointed out multiple times, these kinds of things don't happen very often. Sure, teams in-season will blow a 10 game lead from time to time (even this year!!!) but nearing the end of the season, when talent levels normalize to a larger degree and rosters are (more or less) locked in, it just doesn't happen very often. Not "never", but not very often, hence the 99.1% division odds for the Brewers.

[homer]

I feel pretty good about the Brewers chances to win the Division. It's not a 100% lock of course but the odds are very good.

 

Nobody has disagreed with that.

.

 

Then what the heck is the problem?

 

Yeah if the lead shrinks to 4 games or whatever people are going to freak out. That's how it goes.

[PinaMadness]

All of the sudden the mighty Reds offense can't hit. Only two hits yesterday and only two tonight through seven, both by Kyle Farmer.

[brewcrewdue80]

The reds are only 10 games over 500 because they have a garbage bullpen. A couple minor upgrades hasn't changed that.

 

I did a double take when I looked at the standings and saw the Reds are only 71-61. They are lucky to be in competition for any playoff spot at all with that record. If they were in the AL they would be neck and neck with the Seattle Mariners, who are 9 over .500 and are facing 1-2% playoff odds.

 

The Brewers are in cruise control mode now, they can go .500 in a September or even a few games under .500 and it will be of zero consequence to the end result.

 

I think you can toss Seattle's record and 1pct chance at the fact that the East teams exist with a 40win Baltimore team to beat up on for at least 14wins in 19games. Then add the NL East teams to also beat up on.

Next you have the West teams which Seattle resides in that are beating up on below 50win teams Texas and Arizona. That's just bound to happen with 2teams from each division gobbling up wins and just not keeping up that pace. Honestly the Reds were supposed to be further out of it had the Padres remained on that winning trend in the West. Essentially fallen in to where Seattle stands only the NL East had the Mets fall even further so the Padres are within reason to make wild card still. Seattle also has to have some less pct of making it simple because their roster looks weak. They've probably out-performed in win expectancy to even be where they are. No SPs and an offense that is Milws pre Adames level. Little different as Milw has had a higher pct throughout the season due to the SPs.

[BruisedCrew]

I feel pretty good about the Brewers chances to win the Division. It's not a 100% lock of course but the odds are very good.

 

Nobody has disagreed with that.

.

 

Then what the heck is the problem?

 

Yeah if the lead shrinks to 4 games or whatever people are going to freak out. That's how it goes.

 

The problem has come up because I choose to continue to grind through the schedule instead of relying too heavily on projections based on a variety of assumptions. Just like when the Brewers have a 5 run lead in the 7th inning I still don’t want to see the opponent given any life.

 

The real argument from me comes because of the posters who have concluded that my approach means that I expect the Brewers to blow their lead or, even more ludicrous, that I am rooting for the Reds to win.

[pacopete4]

I guess we won’t know for sure until we see what, if any, additions the teams make, but right now it’s hard to argue that the team that won 6 of 7 on the other’s home field isn’t better.

 

Now that they have added Gutierrez and Castillo is back to elite form, they have much better starting pitching than they had in May. A lot of what happened then is irrelevant to what to expect going forward.

 

Reds score 4 in the ninth off Melancon to turn a 2-0 deficit into a 4-2 lead.

 

The Brewers won’t be ahead of them for long.

 

Hosmer ties with with a bomb.

 

Reds pen is going to be their Achilles Heel, regardless of how good they looked against the Brewers.

 

Probably not enough of an Achilles Heel to keep them behind the Brewers.

 

This is total mess of a lineup and its on Stearns to make more additions. The Pitchers in back to back games pitched gems and we lost both do a Crappy Offense. Haines needs to be shown the door for better or worse . the teams not going to win with these career minor leagues in the lineup.

 

I wouldn’t call the Reds a lesser team. Their recent performances suggest that their pitching is rounding into shape after an awful start, and they have a potent lineup. They figure to be in the division race until the end and I’m not sure you can say that about the Brewers.

 

Just a few of the receipts on your weird obsession with the Reds and them being better than the Brewers. You’ve now morphed many of these bad takes into your present argument than the division isn’t mathematically settled. Anyone can search your posts and see many of the Reds are better takes in July when you tried to be Nostradamus.

[homer]

Unlocking this thread. Let's avoid games of gotcha going forward. Please keep it civil. Thanks!