Remaining Schedules

[Jopal78]

 

The Reds next 6 series include 4 layup series(Marlins, Cubs, Tigers, Pirates) and then 2 against the Cardinals. Earlier in August they had 4 game sweeps of both the Pirates and Marlins. I get the odds are long regardless of schedule, I guess I'll say I expect the 9.5 game gap to close at least some over the next 3 weeks or so. There's just no way we can extend the lead with them having such a cake schedule. My shot in the dark guess is we'll have a 6 game lead on 9/16 with 12 to play and them about to face a Dodgers team that probably will still need the wins.

 

Have you looked at the Reds bullpen?

 

The two pitchers with the most innings out the pen were both let go this week:

 

Heath Hembree (42 innings, 8 saves) went to NYM on a waiver claim on 8/20.

Sean Doolittle (38.1 innings) DFA'd on 8/24.

 

The remaining parts aren't any better.

 

Amir Garrett (35.1 innings, 5.49 FIP and 1.72 WHIP)

Tejay Antone (33.2 innings back to the DL with a shoulder injury)

Tony Santillan (26.1 innings, 5.10 FIP and 1.67 WHIP)

Justin Wilson (8 innings, 4.67 FIP)

 

Lucas Sims, Michael Lorenzen, Mychal Givens and Luis Cessa are serviceable but not much more than that.

 

The Brewers in this series have scored 7 runs in 4 innings against the Reds bullpen. Cincinnati may win slugfests with teams but they aren't going to win too many regardless of opponent where they have to rely on their bullpen.

[DuWayne Steurer]

The reds are only 10 games over 500 because they have a garbage bullpen. A couple minor upgrades hasn't changed that. I'm not worried about them playing the Cubs and Marlins. They just lost two games in a row to the Cubs.

 

These bad teams aren't just going to lay down and lose games on purpose. And the tigers aren't the slam dunk. They're just a few games below 500. They've been playing pretty good ball in the second half of the season, even if there's nothing for them to play for.

 

I just can't see Cincy going on a sustained run and winning 9 out of 10 or 17 out of 20 because their bullpen just can't hold on to leads.

 

If they prove me wrong and wipe out a nine and a half game lead in the next five weeks, kudos to them. But at this point in time I don't see it

[Underachiever]

Brewerfan: I hate it when we play Pittsburgh. They are dangerous.

Also Brewerfan: Cincinnati has an easy schedule. They play Pittsburgh.

[timpep]

I'm actually convinced that if the Reds get out of Milwaukee and win 17 of their next 20 the Brewers would just win 18.

 

I just don't see a collapse coming. Every week it seems like this team is better than the previous week. It's still a weird time with covid and stuff so anything is possible but I just don't see any realistic scenarios where the Brewers lose the division race.

[KeithStone53151]

 

The Reds next 6 series include 4 layup series(Marlins, Cubs, Tigers, Pirates) and then 2 against the Cardinals. Earlier in August they had 4 game sweeps of both the Pirates and Marlins. I get the odds are long regardless of schedule, I guess I'll say I expect the 9.5 game gap to close at least some over the next 3 weeks or so. There's just no way we can extend the lead with them having such a cake schedule. My shot in the dark guess is we'll have a 6 game lead on 9/16 with 12 to play and them about to face a Dodgers team that probably will still need the wins.

 

Have you looked at the Reds bullpen?

 

The two pitchers with the most innings out the pen were both let go this week:

 

Heath Hembree (42 innings, 8 saves) went to NYM on a waiver claim on 8/20.

Sean Doolittle (38.1 innings) DFA'd on 8/24.

 

The remaining parts aren't any better.

 

Amir Garrett (35.1 innings, 5.49 FIP and 1.72 WHIP)

Tejay Antone (33.2 innings back to the DL with a shoulder injury)

Tony Santillan (26.1 innings, 5.10 FIP and 1.67 WHIP)

Justin Wilson (8 innings, 4.67 FIP)

 

Lucas Sims, Michael Lorenzen, Mychal Givens and Luis Cessa are serviceable but not much more than that.

 

The Brewers in this series have scored 7 runs in 4 innings against the Reds bullpen. Cincinnati may win slugfests with teams but they aren't going to win too many regardless of opponent where they have to rely on their bullpen.

 

Certainly not unfair, the bullpen is pretty ugly. That said, there's a pretty strong chance they'll pound out 7+ runs most games against the teams they are facing. Every time I notice a Pirates starting pitcher, they seem to have an ERA in the upper 5s or worse. We can certainly revisit in a couple weeks and see if i was right or not...

[DuWayne Steurer]

Out to San Fran to play the Giants, while the Reds take on the Cardinals. Cardinals are fading fast, but still within striking distance of the 2nd wild card. This series is an opportunity for them to make up some ground on Cincy, so even though we're off to face a tough opponent, the Reds are playing someone who's literally playing for their playoff lives right now as well.

 

playoff odds on B-R right now are > 99.9%

[dlk9s]

There's a little part of me that hopes we lose the series so that the Giants can stay ahead of the Dodgers.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The Brewers obviously have a tough week with the Giants and Cardinals. But the Reds first face a Cardinals team holding onto its playoff chances for dear life, and a Tigers team which has played OK in the second half. No gimmes.

[owbc]

The reds are only 10 games over 500 because they have a garbage bullpen. A couple minor upgrades hasn't changed that. I'm not worried about them playing the Cubs and Marlins. They just lost two games in a row to the Cubs.

 

These bad teams aren't just going to lay down and lose games on purpose. And the tigers aren't the slam dunk. They're just a few games below 500. They've been playing pretty good ball in the second half of the season, even if there's nothing for them to play for.

 

I just can't see Cincy going on a sustained run and winning 9 out of 10 or 17 out of 20 because their bullpen just can't hold on to leads.

 

If they prove me wrong and wipe out a nine and a half game lead in the next five weeks, kudos to them. But at this point in time I don't see it

 

I did a double take when I looked at the standings and saw the Reds are only 71-61. They are lucky to be in competition for any playoff spot at all with that record. If they were in the AL they would be neck and neck with the Seattle Mariners, who are 9 over .500 and are facing 1-2% playoff odds.

 

The Brewers are in cruise control mode now, they can go .500 in a September or even a few games under .500 and it will be of zero consequence to the end result.

[adambr2]

The reds are only 10 games over 500 because they have a garbage bullpen. A couple minor upgrades hasn't changed that. I'm not worried about them playing the Cubs and Marlins. They just lost two games in a row to the Cubs.

 

These bad teams aren't just going to lay down and lose games on purpose. And the tigers aren't the slam dunk. They're just a few games below 500. They've been playing pretty good ball in the second half of the season, even if there's nothing for them to play for.

 

I just can't see Cincy going on a sustained run and winning 9 out of 10 or 17 out of 20 because their bullpen just can't hold on to leads.

 

If they prove me wrong and wipe out a nine and a half game lead in the next five weeks, kudos to them. But at this point in time I don't see it

 

I did a double take when I looked at the standings and saw the Reds are only 71-61. They are lucky to be in competition for any playoff spot at all with that record. If they were in the AL they would be neck and neck with the Seattle Mariners, who are 9 over .500 and are facing 1-2% playoff odds.

 

The Brewers are in cruise control mode now, they can go .500 in a September or even a few games under .500 and it will be of zero consequence to the end result.

 

There's a part of me that wants us to do not great, maybe a split against the Giants, I really want them to hold off the Dodgers in the West. Obviously I'll be rooting for the Brewers but my heart isn't all the way into it knowing our games are of little consequence right now to our playoff positioning and wanting the Dodgers to have a chance to lose a WC game and/or be on the road in the NLDS.

[owbc]

There's a part of me that wants us to do not great, maybe a split against the Giants, I really want them to hold off the Dodgers in the West. Obviously I'll be rooting for the Brewers but my heart isn't all the way into it knowing our games are of little consequence right now to our playoff positioning and wanting the Dodgers to have a chance to lose a WC game and/or be on the road in the NLDS.

 

Am I the only one who wants the NLCS rematch with LA?

 

There’s a reason why SF has so many championships, their ballpark is where your postseason hopes go to die. I’d be just as happy to see them bounced in the wild card game as LA.

[MrTPlush]

They are lucky to be in competition for any playoff spot at all with that record. If they were in the AL they would be neck and neck with the Seattle Mariners, who are 9 over .500 and are facing 1-2% playoff odds.

 

That is a perfectly fine record to be in a postseason chase, especially these days with two WC teams. They are on 87 win pace, teams have made the postseason many times with sub 90 wins. If they have a good month they win 90+...that seems more than acceptable.

 

The Reds are lucky in the fact there is only really one other team challenging them for that spot. If the Padres suck this month the Reds can make it in not even playing well. It is a lot worse when there are 3-4 teams in the race for that last spot and one is likely to get hot requiring you to also play really well.

[adambr2]

There's a part of me that wants us to do not great, maybe a split against the Giants, I really want them to hold off the Dodgers in the West. Obviously I'll be rooting for the Brewers but my heart isn't all the way into it knowing our games are of little consequence right now to our playoff positioning and wanting the Dodgers to have a chance to lose a WC game and/or be on the road in the NLDS.

 

Am I the only one who wants the NLCS rematch with LA?

 

There’s a reason why SF has so many championships, their ballpark is where your postseason hopes go to die. I’d be just as happy to see them bounced in the wild card game as LA.

 

I mostly don't want that rematch, because the thought of having our World Series hopes destroyed by the freaking Dodgers makes me pretty sick.

[BruisedCrew]

I first looked at the remaining schedules on July 30, with the Brewers at 61-42 and leading the Reds (54-49) by 7 games with 59 to play. In the post that opened this thread I identified a block of 26 games for each team in which I thought the Reds had a significant schedule advantage and figured to pick up a few games on the Brewers. The other 33 games for each team included the only remaining series between the two teams and 30 other games where I thought the schedules were pretty even.

 

So, what has happened in the last month, as almost half of those 59 games have been played:

 

1. The Brewers have gone 18-10 to the Reds 17-12 and increased their lead to 8 1/2 games.

 

2. By winning the series against the Reds, the Brewers removed the risk of the Reds picking up a quick 3 games in 3 days (as they did twice before this season at AFF) and instead added a game to their lead. The come from behind win on Tuesday might have been one of the most important games of the season because it snatched away a game that appeared headed the Reds way against one of the Brewers aces. There's no way of knowing if that loss had any hangover effect, but I know that it was pretty crushing to Reds fans.

 

3. Out of the blocks of 26 "Advantage Reds" games, the Reds have taken advantage by winning 9 of 11 from the Pirates and Marlins while the Brewers went 7-5 against the Pirates, Giants, and Cards. That gave them a net pickup of 2 1/2 games.

 

4. In addition to losing a game in the head to head series, the Reds lost ground in the block of "neutral" games, mainly a result of losing 2 of 3 to the Cubs compared to the Brewers 4 game sweep. Those two things account for a pickup of 3 1/2 games for the Brewers.

 

So, the net result is a very good month for the Brewers. They add to their lead while getting 28 games off the schedule. The Reds still have a significant remaining schedule advantage by virtue of having 10 games against the Pirates and only 5 games in the "neutral" category against playoff contenders. Two of those are against the White Sox in the final week when the Sox will likely have already clinched their division title and locked in the playoff position as the 3rd division winner.

 

But, with time running short, if the Reds are going to make a move it probably has to begin with the Brewers losing 3 or 4 to the Giants and continue with the Reds winning about 75% of their games against the Pirates, Tigers, Cardinals, and Cubs, or hope for a pretty serious Brewers collapse. In other words, something similar to the Mets collapse in 2007.

 

This past month does show how the "if the Brewers just go .500..." scenarios can make the task of gaining ground seem more improbable than it actually is. If the Brewers had gone 14-14 instead of 18-10 in their last 28 games, their lead would be a much less comfortable 4 1/2 games (2 1/2 if one of the additional losses had been to the Reds). During this same time on the calendar, there have been 3 glaring examples of how a playoff contending team losing more than 8 games in the standings in the space of a month is not as uncommon as some seem to think. Specifically:

 

1. The Red Sox had a 1.5 game lead over the Rays and an 8.5 game lead over the Yankees in the AL East.Since then they lost 10.5 games to the Yanks and 9.5 to the Rays and are fighting more for a wild card spot than the division title.

 

2. The Mets led the Phils by 3.5 games and the Braves by 4 in the NL East, but in the last month they dropped 11.5 to the Braves and 6.5 to the Phils and are barely breathing in the wild card race.

 

3. Though they started to slide earlier from having a projected 97% chance of making the playoffs, the Padres were just 5 games behind the Giants and led the wild card field by 6 games. After going 9-17 the Padres are now trailing the Reds by 1.5 games in the second wild card race and, because of a difficult closing schedule, their playoff probability has dropped into the low 20's.

 

Now, do I expect the Brewers to finish something like 10-20 and/or the Reds to emulate the Yankees and rattle off a run of 23-6? No. But, it's baseball, and things like that do happen and have happened already this season.

[sveumrules]

On July 28th the Red Sox had a 2.5 game on the Rays. FanGraphs gave them Division Odds of 69% at that time. For comparison, on July 28th the Brewers were 7 games up on the Reds for 92% Division Odds.

 

Even when the Mets were up 4 games on the Braves on July 31st, FanGraphs had their Division Odds at 69.4% vs 93% for the Brewers.

 

It isn't over until the Brewers Division Odds are 100% and the Magic Number is Zero (& even then its only really just beginning) but the Red Sox & Mets are lower true talent level teams in much closer races than the Brewers (99% current Division Odds) are.

[pacopete4]

Yeah, the Brewers are a really good team and just continue to prove that to most.

[BruisedCrew]

On July 28th the Red Sox had a 2.5 game on the Rays. FanGraphs gave them Division Odds of 69% at that time. For comparison, on July 28th the Brewers were 7 games up on the Reds for 92% Division Odds.

 

Even when the Mets were up 4 games on the Braves on July 31st, FanGraphs had their Division Odds at 69.4% vs 93% for the Brewers.

 

It isn't over until the Brewers Division Odds are 100% and the Magic Number is Zero (& even then its only really just beginning) but the Red Sox & Mets are lower true talent level teams in much closer races than the Brewers (99% current Division Odds) are.

 

After the games on July 29, which is where I started, the Red Sox were 63-41 and the Brewers were 61-42. The Yankees were 53-48 and the Reds were 54-49. The Red Sox division percentages were lower than the Brewers because of the Rays being in their division. But, losing 10 games in the standings is losing 10 games in the standings, whether that means turning a 4 game lead into a 6 game deficit or turning a 7 game lead into a 3 game deficit. Or turning an 8 game wild card lead into a 2 game deficit.

 

Did anyone on July 29 expect the Red Sox to lose 16 of their next 28 and the Yankees to win 23 of their next 29? Probably not. The odds of it happening were probably less than 1%. But it did happen. Again, I do not expect the Brewers to blow the division lead, but don’t try to tell me (as some have) that a division or wild card leading team losing more than 8 games in the standings over the course of a month is a once every few decades event, because that simply isn’t true.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I will admit that I don't like it when they give playoff odds as 100% before the spot is clinched. Call at 99.99% until the spot is clinched.

[PeaveyFury]

but don’t try to tell me (as some have) that a division or wild card leading team losing more than 8 games in the standings over the course of a month is a once every few decades event, because that simply isn’t true.

 

Except it really and truly is, literally based on historical results. You clearly have chosen to believe that the vastly improbable is less improbable than it actually is, which is fine. But that's what I and others were saying weeks ago. Just own it- you have every right to believe 'it's not over until it's over,' but it just means you don't trust the Brewers to finish this out. Which, again as noted, some fans of Wisconsin sports inherently believe based on a long history of near-misses. But, it's over for all intents and purposes. Doesn't mean it can't happen, just means is almost certainly won't.

[sveumrules]

but don’t try to tell me (as some have) that a division or wild card leading team losing more than 8 games in the standings over the course of a month is a once every few decades event, because that simply isn’t true.

 

It seems like you are conflating two true, but slightly different statements.

 

Division or Wild Card leading teams can lose more than 8 games in a month is true.

 

The last team to blow a division lead over 7.5 games as of August 15th were the California Angels in 1995 is also true.

 

The 2021 Brewers situation is closer to the second scenario than to the first.

[BruisedCrew]

but don’t try to tell me (as some have) that a division or wild card leading team losing more than 8 games in the standings over the course of a month is a once every few decades event, because that simply isn’t true.

 

It seems like you are conflating two true, but slightly different statements.

 

Division or Wild Card leading teams can lose more than 8 games in a month is true.

 

The last team to blow a division lead over 7.5 games as of August 15th were the California Angels in 1995 is also true.

 

The 2021 Brewers situation is closer to the second scenario than to the first.

 

I don't think I am conflating two different situations. I think you are inappropriately limiting the analysis to a very specific situation: a lead of 7.5 games or more on August 15. That ignores situations where teams have lost leads of a similar size in significantly less time, like the 2007 Mets. I also put blowing large, late leads in wild card races into the same category because the same forces are in place.

 

And just completely blowing the lead isn't the point. Maybe those who think the race is over don't care if the Brewers lead is whittled away, but they still pull it out, like they did in 1982. I know I don't want to deal with a situation like that again.

 

So, instead of spending a lot of time on playoff rosters and pitching rotations, I intend to follow the games every day and hope for the Brewers to win or at least not start losing ground until the division is clinched. As I've said before. a lot can happen in a month, including inexplicable slumps, injuries, and succumbing to the pressure of seeing a once sure thing start to slip away.

[adambr2]

At some point the math becomes a serious problem for a trailing team and we are at that point.

 

The Brewers will go into mini slumps like any other team in baseball, but they are too talented to go completely into a spring of 2015 type spiral. If you wanted to convince me that they could finish their last 31 games with a 15-16 record, I would say that is possible.

 

Even if that would happen, the Reds would need a scorching 23-7 finish just to tie.

 

I'm not saying go ahead and print the T shirts now but the division race just isn't competitive enough at this point to stress about it IMO.

[BruisedCrew]

 

Which, again as noted, some fans of Wisconsin sports inherently believe based on a long history of near-misses. But, it's over for all intents and purposes. Doesn't mean it can't happen, just means is almost certainly won't.

 

I've asked this before and you have declined to respond. But, where have you lived where you have been surrounded by passionate sports fans who are less cautious or pessimistic as a group than Brewers fans, especially about a team that has literally never won a championship? I have lived in and near some cities with several professional sports teams (with varying histories of success) and have not seen any significant difference between fans there and Brewers fans, except that Brewers fans tend to be more loyal and less inclined to turn vicious toward their team than fans in these cities.

 

You have raised this point countless times, but I totally fail to see how the Packers, Bucks, or Badgers have anything to do with how a lot of fans react to the Brewers. Maybe I am different, but I don't even root for all of these teams and have different levels of emotional investment in the teams that I do root for. I've seen the Packers win 4 Super Bowls, 4 other NFL championships before the Super Bowl era, and play in many other playoff games. None of that has any bearing on my reluctance to lean back and consider the rest of the Brewers season to be nothing but exhibitions leading up to the playoffs.

 

I wear my seat belt whenever I'm in the car even though I'm quite confident that I won't need it. I look at this the same way.

[areacodes]

I don't think I am conflating two different situations. I think you are inappropriately limiting the analysis to a very specific situation: a lead of 7.5 games or more on August 15. That ignores situations where teams have lost leads of a similar size in significantly less time, like the 2007 Mets. I also put blowing large, late leads in wild card races into the same category because the same forces are in place.

 

How many times have teams not blow that type of lead? You keep point to the rare instances that it happens and everybody else has acknowledged that. We’ve just been saying it isn’t likely to happen, not that it had never happened or isn’t possible.

 

I also think that losing a lead in the wild card race is different than division because you have more teams to compete against, more teams that could get hot enough to make it matter if you're team starts to lose.

 

So, instead of spending a lot of time on playoff rosters and pitching rotations, I intend to follow the games every day and hope for the Brewers to win or at least not start losing ground until the division is clinched. As I've said before. a lot can happen in a month, including inexplicable slumps, injuries, and succumbing to the pressure of seeing a once sure thing start to slip away.

 

Do you think the rest of us here aren’t planning on watching and hoping the Brewers win the division just because we feel the odds of that not happening are rare?

[PeaveyFury]

You have raised this point countless times, but I totally fail to see how the Packers, Bucks, or Badgers have anything to do with how a lot of fans react to the Brewers.

 

It's been raised because it's a concept discussed widely, both here and all over social media.

 

viewtopic.php?f=156&t=38480

 

Including the Bucks' championship run, the assumption from a lot of people was that what could go wrong would. And in a lot of ways, that was true historically. Our teams have had a terrible string of performing exceptionally well, and finding a way to fall short of the ultimate prize. Perhaps you're not in the same boat, but many of those/us fans root for multiple Wisconsin sports teams, hence an inherent link between most fans of Wisconsin sports teams.

 

But, the continued item at hand here is that you're posting on a Brewers message board where many/most have accepted the fact that the Brewers are almost certainly going to win the division, and not only do you continue to not believe that, you continue to challenge anyone who says otherwise. Again, this is a Brewers message board, and you're challenging actual historical results and statistical probabilities. I don't think you should be terribly surprised that at this point in the season people 1)don't share your view, and 2)are more than a little bewildered at how insistent you continue to be that the division is still a race and the Reds may catch us.

 

In short, that has to either be a indicative of a negative/concerned view of the situation the Brewers are in, or, as you put it, 'stirring the pot.' The latter is obviously more problematic, but no one has said you can't believe the former. Just own it, and don't be so surprised when other people here disagree.