Remaining Schedules

[KeithStone53151]

Not that the Padres aren't good, but I also think people are overly worried about them due to the media darling they can be.

 

To add to your point, the Brewers took 5 of 7 off the Padres in the season series. And most of that was when the team was hitting like 180, I'm pretty sure Daniel Robertson started a couple of those games for perspective. Considering the other potential opponents, a matchup with the Padres at any point in the postseason is a good thing for this team.

[igor67]

LA can't be terribly excited about any wildcard game at all, but Cincy is really unexciting. For 1 game they have to have they kind find enough pitching and just hope one of their big bats has a great game.

[KeithStone53151]

LA can't be terribly excited about any wildcard game at all, but Cincy is really unexciting. For 1 game they have to have they kind find enough pitching and just hope one of their big bats has a great game.

 

The Padres would probably have a better shot at beating LA than Cincy. San Diego isn't THAT far from LA whereas they could get a fair amount of fans to the game. The Padres lineup is probably similar quality to the Reds but the pitching is so much better.

[lcbj68c]

To be clear, we want Milwaukee simply with the #2 seed, yes? I have little interest in drawing the wild card winner for the NLDS at this stage.

You’re saying you’d rather that the Brewers play Atlanta? I don’t think it’s clear at all. What if the NLDS was against wild card winner Cincinnati? What if MKE sweeps the Reds, while ATL and SF play a full series, allowing the Brewers to set up and rest their rotation? So many variables. Just two days ago there was talk about the Reds easy schedule. Things change in the blink of an eye, or a swing of a bat. Very little is clear or simple. Pretty exciting, though.

 

I didn't have consideration of CIN making the playoffs, TBH. Haven't really been involved in the conversation this year before last night. I just reckoned it was a 95% certainty in my brain that LAD/SF/SD were going to take the two of the wildcards. Would prefer to battle the NL East Champion in the NLDS was what I was thinking. As well as MKE has played on the road, I didn't see much of an advantage to getting the #1 and playing a really good NL West team.

[tmwiese55]

Sure, if we knew the Reds were somehow winning the WC you'd take the 1 seed. Otherwise, I think you choose to be on the side of the bracket opposite of LAD and hope for the best. Getting the 1 seed opens up the possibility of playing them in NLDS, getting the 2 eliminates that chance so I think I go that route every time. I suppose if LA catches SF to win the division then again I'd prefer to be 1 seed for home field and Reds/SD/SF aren't monsters like LA. But even if LA gets 1, we get 2 at least we're still opposite side of bracket from them.

[Outlander]

I would much rather for sure play the NL East winner than potentially the Dodgers in the Brewers first round of the playoffs. Doesn't really matter because the Brewers players themselves won't fold or settle for #2 but yes it is very clear to me that I want the Brewers to finish #2.

[timpep]

If people think the Dodgers are better it would make the most sense to play them in a 5 game series vs a 7 game series IMO. I don't really care who we play. I'd rather have the best record in the league and let things shake out how they may.

[tmwiese55]

If people think the Dodgers are better it would make the most sense to play them in a 5 game series vs a 7 game series IMO. I don't really care who we play. I'd rather have the best record in the league and let things shake out how they may.

 

I'd rather get the 35% chance someone else eliminates them before we have to play them.

[nate82]

The Athletic has the Brewers as the #1 favorite for the World Series.

 

https://theathletic.com/2776311/2021/08/19/mlb-playoff-tiers-our-world-series-favorites-are-not-who-you-think-they-are?source=user-shared-article

 

1. Milwaukee Brewers

 

The Brewers? Yes, the Brewers. They are your World Series favorites. Milwaukee has the largest division lead of any team in the National League, and the clearest path to a division title. No team will enjoy facing the starting trio of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta. Some consider Craig Counsell the best manager in the game. And, if the team plays its cards correctly, it can maintain control of the No. 2 seed in the league, thus avoiding whoever emerges from the wild card.

[adambr2]

If people think the Dodgers are better it would make the most sense to play them in a 5 game series vs a 7 game series IMO. I don't really care who we play. I'd rather have the best record in the league and let things shake out how they may.

 

I'd rather get the 35% chance someone else eliminates them before we have to play them.

 

Should be higher than that. If they don't win their division they probably have at least a 35% chance of just losing the WC game.

[PeaveyFury]

If people think the Dodgers are better it would make the most sense to play them in a 5 game series vs a 7 game series IMO. I don't really care who we play. I'd rather have the best record in the league and let things shake out how they may.

 

I'd rather get the 35% chance someone else eliminates them before we have to play them.

 

Yep, if we HAVE to play them, I do think best of 5 is better. But I'll take my chances that the Giants could also bounce them in that best of 5 and delay playing them as long as possible.

[KeithStone53151]

If people think the Dodgers are better it would make the most sense to play them in a 5 game series vs a 7 game series IMO. I don't really care who we play. I'd rather have the best record in the league and let things shake out how they may.

 

I'd rather get the 35% chance someone else eliminates them before we have to play them.

 

Yep, if we HAVE to play them, I do think best of 5 is better. But I'll take my chances that the Giants could also bounce them in that best of 5 and delay playing them as long as possible.

 

I still prefer avoiding the Dodgers at all costs. That said, playing them in a best of 5 also has one huge benefit...certainly Scherzer or Buehler will pitch the wildcard game so then wouldn't be available probably until game 3 of the best of 5. The other of the two starts game 1 and a potential game 5. Assuming our own health, we would have a pretty signficant starting pitching advantage for game 2 and the other 4 games would arguably be a push from a starting pitching perspective. That is certainly better than having to face both guys twice.

[wibadgers23]

The Reds have been fairly good at beating really bad teams at home this month. I guess the Brewers are just gonna have to take care of business themselves next week.

[BruisedCrew]

The Reds have been fairly good at beating really bad teams at home this month. I guess the Brewers are just gonna have to take care of business themselves next week.

 

They’ve been very good at beating the Brewers at AFF too.

 

Haudricourt had an article today about how much better the Brewers have hit on the road this season, and the games against the Reds games have been an extreme example.

 

In the 9 games at GAB the Brewers have outscored the Reds 58-36 while winning 7 of the 9. In the 7 games at AFF, the Reds have outscored the Brewers 26-13, while winning 6 of the 7. In the 6 losses the Brewers have scored a total of 8 runs.

 

So, the Reds have scored about 4 runs per game against the Brewers, both home and away, but the Brewers have scored over 6 per game at GAB and less than 2 per game at AFF against the Reds. That has to change this week.

[BruisedCrew]

 

Yes, if you're going to go with a realistic but pessimistic scenario, the Brewers go 18-25 to win 90 and the Reds go 26-17 to win 90.

 

But time is ticking and the Reds have been losing ground, not gaining it.

 

With 22 games against the Pirates, Cubs, and Marlins, the Reds could easily go better than 26-17 if they can beat the Cubs and Pirates at close to the same rate the Brewers beat them and add 4 or 5 wins against the Marlins. 16-6 in those 22 isn’t hard to see at all.

 

Just a reminder the Marlins are a far better team than the Cubs or Pirates. A lot of 1run losses give them their poor record, but basically the are near a .500 team quality.

Trevor Rogers is currently sitting on Bereavement but that hopefully ends in time for him to pitch vs the Reds. The 2nd series vs Miami comes immediately after the last series vs the Brewers at Miami. Which has its abilities for long nights out in town and poor games played. This leads to immediately playing the Cardinals at home flying back from Miami. That point right there after the Cardinal series will be the tell all whether to be concerned of the Reds or not. They could easily find themselves at a 5-8 or 6-7 stretch after and be much further out of it or completely right in it if the opposite. The final stretch beyond that is cake for them.

The Reds may also be dealing with an IL stint to Jesse Winker that would cause him to miss the Brewers series.

 

The Marlins may be better than the Cubs and Pirates, but they weren’t good enough to win a game against the Reds or to lose by 1 run.

[pacopete4]

Man, I wish the Reds weren’t better than us.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If the Brewers continue to take care of their own business, the Reds will soon be irrelevant. The Reds are paying for being mediocre in the first half of the season. Playing well now, but they will need to be pretty close to otherworldly at this point to make a move on the division. They just aren't gaining any ground because ... the Brewers are playing pretty dang good ball too.

[adambr2]

I know there's a long ways to go, but the Dodgers catching the Giants, the Braves winning the East, and the Reds catching the Padres for the last WC all feel inevitable to me.

[82brewcrew82]

If the Brewers continue to take care of their own business, the Reds will soon be irrelevant. The Reds are paying for being mediocre in the first half of the season. Playing well now, but they will need to be pretty close to otherworldly at this point to make a move on the division. They just aren't gaining any ground because ... the Brewers are playing pretty dang good ball too.

Wait, I thought they were already irrelevant?

[82brewcrew82]

Man, I wish the Reds weren’t better than us.

Who said they were?

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Red are 18-8 in there last 26 games…

Unfortunately for them, the Brewers are 19-7 in the same stretch!

[wildcat83]

The Padres remaining schedule is absolutely brutal. I think the Reds getting the last wildcard is very realistic.

[rickh150]

Man, I wish the Reds weren’t better than us.

Who said they were?

 

I think a few said the Reds were outplaying the Brewers at the break since the Reds had just swept us. Right now the Reds are playing very well too and have just taken a one game lead for the second wild card with the Padres hurting. I have been following the Padres a bunch lately since the worse they do, the better the Brewers odds to make the playoffs. Even now, we can keep an eye on the Padres until another team leap frogs them. Because even if the Reds catch us, we have a big lead on the 2nd wild card.

 

It’s pretty cocky talk against a team that has been playing very well lately and has beaten us thoroughly this year in Milwaukee.

[rickh150]

The Padres remaining schedule is absolutely brutal. I think the Reds getting the last wildcard is very realistic.

 

Reds have 63% odds of playoffs now at Fangraphs compared to 26% for Padres. That has dramatically changed through August. On August 1, it was 76% Padres and 22% Reds.

[SRB]

I don't think the Reds roster is that great, to be honest. Luis Castillo is the only player on the team who is not overperforming his talent level.