Remaining Schedules

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It’s completely possible the Reds don’t lose to the Cubs or Pirates once more the rest of the season. The Cubs played the Reds pretty tough tonight and were still down 4-0 through 6 innings and now it’s 11-0. Not only are these teams bad, but they are in full tank mode trying to get the highest draft pick possible. The Reds must be licking their chops right now.

 

Or, you know, they could lose to the Cubs 24 hours after you posted this ... LOL

 

Its baseball. There are very few absolutes.

[pacopete4]

The Cubs won last night and now only remain 21 games back. Just something to keep an eye on here as we head down the last stretch of the season.

[MrTPlush]

The Cubs won last night and now only remain 21 games back. Just something to keep an eye on here as we head down the last stretch of the season.

 

Big game today, I believe if we win, the Cardinals will not longer control their own destiny.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Brewers at 97.2% to win the div, per fangraphs. Cards at 0.4%

[dlk9s]

I don't know, guys, I'm sweating 8.5 and 11 game leads with 40 games left and three Cy Young candidates in the rotation. I won't have any fingernails left by the end of the season.

[StearnsFTW]

This thread is hilarious.

[monty57]

For what it’s worth, Miles Mikolas has completed his rehab assignments and is expected to rejoin the Cardinals this week, possibly to start against the Brewers on Thursday. If he and Flaherty can stay healthy their rotation will look better than it has for most of the summer as they make their push for the second wild card spot. Even if they can’t catch the Brewers they will be playing to win.

 

After this Brewers series the Cardinals next 9 games are 7 against the Pirates and 2 against the improving Tigers. After that their schedule is loaded with playoff contenders, including the Reds, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, and Mets, and doesn’t let up until the last 10 days when they have 7 games against the Cubs sandwiched around a series against the Brewers. They have a significantly tougher schedule than the Reds.

 

Regarding the bolded part: In last night's game, they said that Lester had been named the starter for Thursday.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Brewers 5 back of #1 seed and 9 games up for the #2 seed.

[BruisedCrew]

For what it’s worth, Miles Mikolas has completed his rehab assignments and is expected to rejoin the Cardinals this week, possibly to start against the Brewers on Thursday. If he and Flaherty can stay healthy their rotation will look better than it has for most of the summer as they make their push for the second wild card spot. Even if they can’t catch the Brewers they will be playing to win.

 

After this Brewers series the Cardinals next 9 games are 7 against the Pirates and 2 against the improving Tigers. After that their schedule is loaded with playoff contenders, including the Reds, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, and Mets, and doesn’t let up until the last 10 days when they have 7 games against the Cubs sandwiched around a series against the Brewers. They have a significantly tougher schedule than the Reds.

 

Regarding the bolded part: In last night's game, they said that Lester had been named the starter for Thursday.

 

Yes, shortly after I posted that, the Cardinals announced that Mikolas would make his return on Friday and Lester would start Thursday.

 

As the Padres continue to slide, the race for the second wild card spot is getting much more interesting. Fangraphs now shows the Padres chances of claiming that spot at less than 50% and, given some of their recent injuries, the playoff projection sites might be overstating their chances. If you gave me a 50-50 bet right now I would bet on the Reds to finish with a better record than the Padres.

[adambr2]

Yep. I would likewise predict that Cincinnati does not catch us but does catch the Padres for the 2nd Wild Card.

[brewcrewdue80]

I don't know how some posters are so concerned with the pitching staff we have starting games. Burnes has an "off" night of 6IP and 0ER. Remeber a year or two ago we had starters that were lucky to even complete 6IP? It was the 5.1IP starting squad. Leaving 11outs for the bullpen to complete the game.

Consistently this has been the narrative of our top3. Struggled to get through 6IP giving up 0-2ER. Meanwhile when they arent struggling 7IP is a breeze while still giving up 0-3ER. Brewers have a fair schedule finishing the season. Yes the Reds have an easier schedule, but I thought originally was to refer to them catching one of the West teams for a wildcard and then maybe beating the other in that game.

Then it turned to Reds catapulting us because we play the Cardinals 13games? (Think it began with someone mentioning the WS loss to them and that mojo just going to keep the faith Cardinals ruin a Brewers good thing)

Padres are in trouble. Remember they are in the stretch about to finish playing 45+straight games their opponent wasn't above .500. That ends Friday with possibly the Padres playing just two series vs below .500 opponents(up to 5] and the whole month of Sept vs. better than .500 teams. Might need to check on Atl and Philly schedules here as they have entered 2nd wild card spot potential. Padres all but removed from it. Dodgers and Giants will take care of it.

[wibadgers23]

It’s completely possible the Reds don’t lose to the Cubs or Pirates once more the rest of the season. The Cubs played the Reds pretty tough tonight and were still down 4-0 through 6 innings and now it’s 11-0. Not only are these teams bad, but they are in full tank mode trying to get the highest draft pick possible. The Reds must be licking their chops right now.

 

Or, you know, they could lose to the Cubs 24 hours after you posted this ... LOL

 

Its baseball. There are very few absolutes.

 

I was going for the reverse jinx there. LOL

[BallFour]

I admit the 2014 team had a huge crash but since we are talking about probability charts how about the 2019 team going from 5.6% chances on September 5th all the way to clinching the second wild card with 4 games to go. That team went 20-7 in September with an 0-3 finish in games that did not matter. 20-4 up until that point, what a run.

[tmwiese55]

As long as the Cardinals don't pick up Rafael Furcal I don't think we have to worry about them.

 

Reds down 3-0 to start vs the Cubs today too.

[Underachiever]

As long as the Cardinals don't pick up Rafael Furcal I don't think we have to worry about them.

 

Reds down 3-0 to start vs the Cubs today too.

Now 5-0.

[BruisedCrew]

As long as the Cardinals don't pick up Rafael Furcal I don't think we have to worry about them.

 

Reds down 3-0 to start vs the Cubs today too.

Now 5-0.

 

It will be fun to watch to see if the Cubs patchwork pitching staff can hold on to a 5 run handicap against the Reds offense. Or if the Cubs offense can add on runs against the Reds bullpen, which is going to be called in early.

 

5-1 at the end of 2.

[owbc]

If the Reds lose today, they can only lose 11 more games the rest of the season if they want to win 90.

 

We're getting to the point where the Brewers winning the division by less than 5 games is becoming a highly unlikely scenario.

[StearnsFTW]

I admit the 2014 team had a huge crash but since we are talking about probability charts how about the 2019 team going from 5.6% chances on September 5th all the way to clinching the second wild card with 4 games to go. That team went 20-7 in September with an 0-3 finish in games that did not matter. 20-4 up until that point, what a run.

 

I don't really see the relevance of the 2014 team personally. This team has waaaaaaaaay more talent than that team.

[monty57]

If the Reds lose today, they can only lose 11 more games the rest of the season if they want to win 90.

 

We're getting to the point where the Brewers winning the division by less than 5 games is becoming a highly unlikely scenario.

 

The Reds are 65-56, so if they lose today, they will be 65-57. 90 wins means 72 losses, so they would need to go 25-15 to end up with 90 wins. That would mean winning 63% of their remaining games, which would be playing slightly worse than San Fran has played this year.

 

Meanwhile, the Brewers would need to go 17-25 to end up at 90-72. That would mean playing slightly better than Pittsburgh has played this year.

 

It is very likely that the Brewers win their division, but I'm in that group that won't celebrate until the magic number is zero.

[owbc]

If the Reds lose today, they can only lose 11 more games the rest of the season if they want to win 90.

 

We're getting to the point where the Brewers winning the division by less than 5 games is becoming a highly unlikely scenario.

 

The Reds are 65-56, so if they lose today, they will be 65-57. 90 wins means 72 losses, so they would need to go 25-15 to end up with 90 wins. That would mean winning 63% of their remaining games, which would be playing slightly worse than San Fran has played this year.

 

Meanwhile, the Brewers would need to go 17-25 to end up at 90-72. That would mean playing slightly better than Pittsburgh has played this year.

 

It is very likely that the Brewers win their division, but I'm in that group that won't celebrate until the magic number is zero.

 

Oh yes, my bad on the math. I do like using the 90-win scenario though because it will be difficult for either the Reds or Brewers to reach 90, much less both of them.

[adambr2]

I admit the 2014 team had a huge crash but since we are talking about probability charts how about the 2019 team going from 5.6% chances on September 5th all the way to clinching the second wild card with 4 games to go. That team went 20-7 in September with an 0-3 finish in games that did not matter. 20-4 up until that point, what a run.

 

I don't really see the relevance of the 2014 team personally. This team has waaaaaaaaay more talent than that team.

 

Yeah I pretty much agree. 2014 was on its last gasp of veteran talent and the fact that they basically tried to run it back with the same group in 2015 and it massively failed should be a good indicator that the 2014 Brewers really played over their heads.

 

I will say one similarity is that the rotation was very deep and carried them but there was no real substance to it. Peralta had a career year and Garza and Gallardo and Lohse all happened to have very good years at the same time. The talent level on this rotation is much better.

[BruisedCrew]

I admit the 2014 team had a huge crash but since we are talking about probability charts how about the 2019 team going from 5.6% chances on September 5th all the way to clinching the second wild card with 4 games to go. That team went 20-7 in September with an 0-3 finish in games that did not matter. 20-4 up until that point, what a run.

 

That run was amazing and does show what can happen in a month. But, I wouldn’t go all the way to saying that the last few games didn’t matter. With two more wins they could have tied the Cardinals and forced another Game 163.

[BruisedCrew]

On the subject of the Padres and their wild card hopes, they are so desperate for starting pitchers that they signed Jake Arrietta, and he’s starting this afternoon.

 

ETA: Arrietta held the Rockies to 3 in the first inning.

[owbc]

I admit the 2014 team had a huge crash but since we are talking about probability charts how about the 2019 team going from 5.6% chances on September 5th all the way to clinching the second wild card with 4 games to go. That team went 20-7 in September with an 0-3 finish in games that did not matter. 20-4 up until that point, what a run.

 

That run was amazing and does show what can happen in a month. But, I wouldn’t go all the way to saying that the last few games didn’t matter. With two more wins they could have tied the Cardinals and forced another Game 163.

 

Most likely the 2021 Reds will suffer the same fate as the 2019 Brewers -- win like crazy to sneak in the playoffs with an upper-80s win total and suffer a quick elimination. Maybe they will even score a run in the postseason this time!

[jjfanec]

The Reds have a very good offense but I dont think they have the pitching for a really sustained run. Their starting pitching just isnt that good this year. This version of Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo are 4.5 ERA guys. They have one starter with an ERA under 3.7. The Brewers have 5. Maybe people think Gray and Castillo will rebound but they havent given much of an indication they will as even recently they (along with Mahle) have more back of the rotation numbers. Really only Guitierrez has been better lately but if you look at his peripherals it seems really shaky - doesnt strike guys out, gives up a hit per inning with a WHIP around 1.3. Their bullpen is better with Givens, Lorenzen and Cessa but none of those guys have an track record that makes you think they are really good.

 

If your pitching is that suspect your offense has to be so good every night and that is just really hard to sustain. Or if your starting pitching isnt great you need to be able to do what CC did where he had started get two times through the order and then mixed and matched in the bullpen. The reds simply cannot do that with their bullpen.