Remaining Schedules

[BruisedCrew]

I mentioned this on another thread a few days ago, but I’m starting a separate thread to track this over the next two months.

 

When I looked at this last Friday, the Reds and Brewers each had 59 games remaining. That is now down to 54 for the Brewers and 55 for the Reds. About half of their remaining games involve equal or close to equal numbers of games against common opponents, or opponents of equal stature (like the Mets and Braves). They also have 3 games against each other.

 

The part of the schedules that involve the biggest disparity are:

 

1. The Reds had 13 games remaining against the Pirates compared to 6 for the Brewers (2 of those games have now been played).

 

2. The Reds have 6 games left against the Cardinals; the Brewers have 13.

 

3. The Reds have 7 games left against the Marlins (with whom the Brewers are done), and the Brewers have 7 against the Giants, who have no more games against the Reds.

 

These blocks of 26 games for each team, which account for about half of the remaining games, seem to present a significant opportunity for the Reds to gain ground without needing the Brewers to collapse or the Reds to go on an unusually torrid streak. I’m going to keep an eye on these games as things move along to see if the Reds take advantage of this apparent opportunity. The Brewers are already 1-1 in their block. This weekend the blocks go head to head as the Reds play 4 against the Bucs while the Brewers play 3 against the Giants.

[dlk9s]

Ideally, the Brewers stay ahead of the Reds (obviously) and the NL East winner (Mets, I guess), as the #2 seed is probably the best spot this year. Avoid the NL West teams until the NLCS. Though I guess of the Brewers whip the Giants, they could elevate to #1.

 

Regardless, this is fun.

[BruisedCrew]

Ideally, the Brewers stay ahead of the Reds (obviously) and the NL East winner (Mets, I guess), as the #2 seed is probably the best spot this year. Avoid the NL West teams until the NLCS. Though I guess of the Brewers whip the Giants, they could elevate to #1.

 

Regardless, this is fun.

 

As long as deGrom stays out (and it doesn’t sound like he’s close to returning) I don’t see the Mets holding on. I also don’t think playing the Braves (who look like the best bet to supplant the Mets) is any bargain.

 

But, with the current Covid issues destroying the bullpen, rising up to the #1 seed is the least of the Brewers concerns.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think there's a good chance the NL West doesn't produce both wild card teams - they are going to beat up on each other and the Reds are only 5 games behind the Padres in the standings with a charmin-soft schedule down the stretch. I still think the Braves and Phils get rolling a bit too so the NL East winds up with a pair of teams winding up ~10 games over 0.500 (assuming the Mets don't crater).

 

If Tatis misses significant time or even the rest of the season with his shoulder injury, they are in trouble with 19 games remaining against the Dodgers and Giants, plus series mixed in with the Braves, Astros, and Cards.

[Underachiever]

Sounds like you are afraid of the Cardinals for some reason. 13 games against Lester, and whoever else St. Louis can throw out there? If the Brewers lose a 7.5 game lead, it won’t be because the teams they are playing are appreciably harder than what the Reds face. Cards got to 8 games over in May, and have been barely treading water since. 31-39 since then. Besides, the Reds are up 5-1 right now, so the Brewers will win today as well.

[BruisedCrew]

Sounds like you are afraid of the Cardinals for some reason. 13 games against Lester, and whoever else St. Louis can throw out there? If the Brewers lose a 7.5 game lead, it won’t be because the teams they are playing are appreciably harder than what the Reds face. Cards got to 8 games over in May, and have been barely treading water since. 31-39 since then. Besides, the Reds are up 5-1 right now, so the Brewers will win today as well.

 

I’m not “afraid” of the Cardinals, but I think they are much harder to beat than the Pirates, the current series notwithstanding. I think the expected wins in 7 games against the Cardinals is lower than in 7 games against the Pirates by a game or two. Same for 7 games against the Giants as opposed to 7 against the Marlins.

[wibadgers23]

The Reds have been playing pretty good baseball since the all-star and have actually lost ground to the Brewers. Gotta be really frustrating.

[owbc]

The Reds have been playing pretty good baseball since the all-star and have actually lost ground to the Brewers. Gotta be really frustrating.

 

Yep, and they are only 6 games above .500. The Brewers are 21 games above .500. That's a lot of ground to make up for a team that is less talented than the Brewers. Hence why the Brewers are sitting at a 90-95% chance to win the division, with an expected margin of 8-9 games over Cincinnati. Realistically, the Reds are playing for the Wild Card at this point.

 

The Brewers should have this wrapped up by mid-September so they can set their rotation for the playoffs.

[BruisedCrew]

The Reds have been playing pretty good baseball since the all-star and have actually lost ground to the Brewers. Gotta be really frustrating.

 

As has been mentioned in other threads, since the Brewers swept the series in Cincinnati to push the lead back to 7 games, the Brewers and Reds have had the same result on all 12 days that they have both played (8 wins, 4 losses). The lead has never been above 7.5 or below 6.5, and the movement has only come on days on which one team was off.

 

That would be very frustrating for the trailing team.

[pacopete4]

The Brewers are doing what playoff teams do this time of year and that’s win series consistently. Hopefully, this COVID shenanigans won’t keep them from doing just that to end this regular season.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Cincy is 17-11 since July 1 and hasn't picked up a game.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Cincy is 17-11 since July 1 and hasn't picked up a game.

 

Exhibit A of the idea of all games matter. The Reds were mediocre in the first half, and it will likely bite them in the end. They are still mediocre, just on a hot streak.

[jjfanec]

With only 53 games left schedules matter but more than anything the Brewers simply need to play solid baseball. If the even go 28-25 Cincy would have to 36-18. Winning 2 of out 3 over that long of a time is tough no matter who you play.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

For perspective the Brewers were 5GB on Sept. 1, 2018. The Cubs weren't particularly bad in September either, the Brewers were just white hot. I don't think the Reds are anywhere near as good as either team. This would require an epic meltdown to lose the division, which I guess is possible, but feels less possible with our SP.

[KeithStone53151]

As long as deGrom stays out (and it doesn’t sound like he’s close to returning) I don’t see the Mets holding on. I also don’t think playing the Braves (who look like the best bet to supplant the Mets) is any bargain.

 

But, with the current Covid issues destroying the bullpen, rising up to the #1 seed is the least of the Brewers concerns.

 

If given the choice between playing the Braves and the NL West team of my choice, I'd take the Braves in a heartbeat.

 

It's certainly better to have this COVID crisis now than a month or two from now.

 

There's a real chance the Dodgers leapfrog the Giants and take the number 1 overall seed for the playoffs. I'm generally good with the Brewers being positioned with the number 2 seed even if it means losing home field advantage in the best of 7 in the NLCS assuming we get that far(knocking on all the wood).

[IIAY]

There is a good chance that the Reds could have the 5th best record in the NL and still miss the playoffs. Both BRef and Fangraphs currently project the Reds to win more games than any NL East team but still fewer than the 2nd and 3rd place NL West teams.

[homer]

Looks like Brewers will miss Gausman this weekend. He's out on paternity leave.

[FidoMcCokefiend]

With only 53 games left schedules matter but more than anything the Brewers simply need to play solid baseball. If the even go 28-25 Cincy would have to 36-18. Winning 2 of out 3 over that long of a time is tough no matter who you play.

 

I'm maintaining a sheet tracking the records each team would need to hit to tie Milwaukee (GB is games back in winning column just to ease automating the updates)

[KeithStone53151]

With only 53 games left schedules matter but more than anything the Brewers simply need to play solid baseball. If the even go 28-25 Cincy would have to 36-18. Winning 2 of out 3 over that long of a time is tough no matter who you play.

 

I'm maintaining a sheet tracking the records each team would need to hit to tie Milwaukee (GB is games back in winning column just to ease automating the updates)

 

That's cute that you included the Pirates...

 

In seriousness, that's super useful...thanks for posting.

[sveumrules]

Looks like Brewers will miss Gausman this weekend. He's out on paternity leave.

 

Giants are lined up for Wood, Webb & then it would be Desclafani but he is on the IL.

 

Cueto pitched Tuesday, so with the day off Thursday would be on regular rest for Sunday.

 

Gausman has also cooled some after a scorching start...

 

First 12 GS: 77.2 IP | 1.27 ERA | 93 K | 16 BB

Last 10 GS: 54.2 IP | 3.79 ERA | 64 K | 23 BB

 

Will be interesting to see who gets the call if SF ends up in the Wild Card game & Gausman's results down the stretch are closer to his last two months than his first two.

[igor67]

To an extent the high number of remaining games helps suggest that the Cards can 'control' their destiny more. In practice it makes for quite the statistical tight rope they would have to walk to comeback. The spreadsheet helps bring that into focus. at just under .500 the Cards would need to win 38 and lose 17 to overtake the Crew. But with that same record you would expect the Brewers to have forced 6 losses on the Cards, and given up 7 wins. Meaning against everyone else they need to go 31-11 or a .738 win%. Under the same number of Brewer wins Cincy probably takes 2 out of 3 from the Crew and would need 32-19 against everyone else or .627.

[Jopal78]

Looks like Brewers will miss Gausman this weekend. He's out on paternity leave.

 

When Milwaukee will miss the two best pitchers (DeSclafani just went on the DL this week) on a team that is #1 in fewest runs allowed, certainly is a nice stroke of luck. Probably will get Alex Wood, Logan Webb, and Johnny Cueto.

 

Edit: Nope, Alex Wood pitching today, Gausman pitched Wednesday, DeScalafani on DL.

 

Webb, Cueto and bullpen day?

[Fear The Chorizo]

To an extent the high number of remaining games helps suggest that the Cards can 'control' their destiny more. In practice it makes for quite the statistical tight rope they would have to walk to comeback. The spreadsheet helps bring that into focus. at just under .500 the Cards would need to win 38 and lose 17 to overtake the Crew. But with that same record you would expect the Brewers to have forced 6 losses on the Cards, and given up 7 wins. Meaning against everyone else they need to go 31-11 or a .738 win%. Under the same number of Brewer wins Cincy probably takes 2 out of 3 from the Crew and would need 32-19 against everyone else or .627.

 

While all true, these things do happen with a higher degree of frequency than fans of teams with big divisional leads at this point in the season like to admit - just ask the 2018 and 2019 Cubs;)

 

What it takes is for the trailing team to just get on absolute fire and take full advantage of winning the remaining head to head matchups they have with the team they are chasing. The 2018 and 2019 versions of the Brewers did exactly that, largely aided by Yelich carrying those offenses and the pitching depth advantage they had once rosters expanded against Cub teams that had more talented 25 man rosters but nothing in terms of depth behind that for the September stretch run.

 

I don't see the Cardinals catching lighting in a bottle and going off on multiple 8-2 stretches the rest of this year because they have shown no ability to score enough runs to maintain that pace against good teams. The Reds might get white hot at some point, but their best shot at a playoff spot remains a wild card should San Diego keep floundering and the NL West teams beat up on one another while Cincy plays the Pirates a ton. I'd actually be more concerned about the Reds catching the Brewers if they played each other more than 3 games down the stretch - without those head to head matchups, trailing teams feel like they are treading water even when they are winning at a decent clip if the team they are chasing isn't slumping.

[pacopete4]

I kind of hope the Reds keep pushing the Brewers. I’m never a fan of clinching early and not having meaningful games. I hope this team can get red hot as the playoffs begin.

[sveumrules]

Looks like Brewers will miss Gausman this weekend. He's out on paternity leave.

 

When Milwaukee will miss the two best pitchers (DeSclafani just went on the DL this week) on a team that is #1 in fewest runs allowed, certainly is a nice stroke of luck. Probably will get Alex Wood, Logan Webb, and Johnny Cueto.

 

Edit: Nope, Alex Wood pitching today, Gausman pitched Wednesday, DeScalafani on DL.

 

Webb, Cueto and bullpen day?

 

Aaron Sanchez made six starts before getting injured on May 4th. Since coming back on July 30th he's made two apparances out of the pen covering five innings.

 

Other guys on the 40 man that have made starts this year are righty Zach Littell & lefty Sammy Long.