Brice Turang Promoted to AAA

[Greenleaf1]

Curious timing for the Turang promotion, since he hasn't been hitting very well there recently and his season OPS is something like .715.

 

Any insight from anyone as to why this move is being made now? My fear is that Turang ends up being Arcia 2.0, just another solid defensive shortstop who can't really hit.

[Smichaelis9]

Curious timing for the Turang promotion, since he hasn't been hitting very well there recently and his season OPS is something like .715.

 

Any insight from anyone as to why this move is being made now? My fear is that Turang ends up being Arcia 2.0, just another solid defensive shortstop who can't really hit.

If I had to guess, some of the draft picks will be joining Low-A or High-A soon, causing a bit of a domino effect, except falling “up” the organizational ladder. For example Black, Murray and/or Raabe could push a guy like Valerio ot Warren up to High A. Which pushed Hamilton up and that pushed Turang up.

[ctmyers]

Curious timing for the Turang promotion, since he hasn't been hitting very well there recently and his season OPS is something like .715.

 

Any insight from anyone as to why this move is being made now? My fear is that Turang ends up being Arcia 2.0, just another solid defensive shortstop who can't really hit.

 

Shot in the dark, but because David Hamilton was also moved up (and is clearly the best base stealer in the org), they may want him and Turang to continue to get regular AB's at shortstop in preparation for a potential call-up as a pinch runner. Maybe test Hamilton out against better competition and see if the wheels still play?

[clancyphile]

Curious timing for the Turang promotion, since he hasn't been hitting very well there recently and his season OPS is something like .715.

 

Any insight from anyone as to why this move is being made now? My fear is that Turang ends up being Arcia 2.0, just another solid defensive shortstop who can't really hit.

 

His OBP is down 38 points from 2019. While the batting average he has is a little higher, the real issue is a MASSIVE drop in his walk rate. In 2019, he had a 6:1 at-bat to walk ratio - 473 at-bats, 83 walks. To date, in 2021, he has 288 at-bats and a total of 28 walks, or an at-bat to walk ratio of over 10:1.

 

Put it this way - he drew more walks during his struggles in Carolina (34) than he has so far.

 

I dropped him to 23 on my ballot due on the basis of a cratered walk rate.

 

Probably should have started at Wisconsin, with a bump to Biloxi.

[DHonks]

Remember there are a lot of checkboxes teams want to check, and avg or slg are only part of it. Maturity, challenging a player, defense, etc.

 

Turang has been a solid performer all season at a young age. Given that we’ve been playing Wilson at SS, I think it’s appropriate Nashville gets a real SS

[DuWayne Steurer]

"Cratered" walk rate,..... he's still walking about once every 10 AB's. As Dhonks said, there's a lot more to player development than looking at the stats.

[sveumrules]

Probably should have started at Wisconsin, with a bump to Biloxi.

 

But if Turang starts at A+, that would've bumped Hamilton down to A & then what happens to Zamora? Just wait it out for rookie ball at the complex?

 

Yes, Turang's walk rate is down, but his K rate is also down at 15%, while his Isolated Slugging is at a career high. It appears he is being more aggressive early in the count, which would theoretically lead to lower BB/K rates & a higher ISO.

 

Sure, he wasn't tearing AA up with a 98 wRC+, but he's also three and a half years younger than average in the Southern League or whatever its called now while playing at the top of the defensive spectrum.

 

Give him a taste of AAA this year, then he'll know what to expect & hopefully better prepare over the offseason heading into 2022.

[Jenkins5]

I like it Turang bump. Get his feet wet & join their playoff run this year. Get through adjust period over next month. Assuming he doesn’t make the 26 man out of ST next year, goal is he is ready to hit ground running as a kid repeating AAA. Think it better sets him up for success next year & to push for mid season MLB debut.

[Lathund]

Turang was a league average hitter (98 wRC+) in a league he is 3-4 years younger than the average player in. And that's as an elite defensive shortstop too. I think that that the situations with no real SS in AAA and one ready to move up from A+ played into it some and he might've stayed the year in AA otherwise. At the same time though, if the guy can hold his own in AA, then why not let him keep developing against fringe major leaguers in AAA as soon as possible? You learn by facing better pitching, just a matter of making sure they're not so much better that they dominate and crush your confidence etc, and being a league average hitter in AA means you can handle it.

[SoCalBrewfan]

The Brewers will often give prospects a bump to a new level a few weeks before the end of the season. It's to be expected that many will struggle a bit, but they'll get to face better competition and presumably be more ready for the subsequent season. I think they care less about the stats than many fans do.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Yah, there has been a lot to like about Turang’s performance even if the results have been meh. He doesn’t swing and miss much, his strikeout to walk ratio is still above average, he hits a lot of line drives and uses all fields.

 

I am a little surprised that there wasn’t a corresponding move from Carolina, where seemingly 2/3 of the position players on the roster are in a position where they could get promoted and no one would bat an eye. Maybe they want to give Pinero a chance to show he belongs. Will be interesting to see if they keep playing Howell at short. With Pinero there, it wouldn’t be a “well someone has to play there” thing either.

[KeithStone53151]

I was a bit surprised by the bump as it didn't really seem like something we NEEDED to do but I understand the thought to a degree. He still seemed pretty challenged at AA and he's only 21. For all those picking on certain stats of his, just remember he's only 21 yet and on the doorstep to MLB. From everything I remember about his profile, his baseball IQ and makeup are about as high as it gets for his age. Pushing him generally makes sense for that reason even if the stats aren't exactly what you want.

 

Also worth noting, the Biloxi home park plays as very pitcher friendly to LH hitters especially. I've been to the park and substantial wind was coming off the ocean the entire time I was in Biloxi(4 days or so), which blows in directly from RF.

 

As for a September callup for Hamilton/Turang, at the moment we aren't in a tight enough race that it would be super necessary. Especially with Turang and having to add him to the 40 man and start his service clock so early for PR appearances only. The experience for him would probably be excellent and help him overall(if the division gets locked up with 6-8 games left you could even find a few starts for him probably), but it's probably overall not worth starting his clock early. Especially for Turang considering his SB success rate in AA was kinda bad...I wouldn't want him trying to steal against MLB pitchers/catchers. A better bet would be Corey Ray if healthy, as he's certainly less valuable at this point, faster, and can hold his own or better in the outfield in a pinch if needed.

[DHonks]

As for a September callup for Hamilton/Turang, at the moment we aren't in a tight enough race that it would be super necessary. Especially with Turang and having to add him to the 40 man and start his service clock so early for PR appearances only. The experience for him would probably be excellent and help him overall(if the division gets locked up with 6-8 games left you could even find a few starts for him probably), but it's probably overall not worth starting his clock early. Especially for Turang considering his SB success rate in AA was kinda bad...I wouldn't want him trying to steal against MLB pitchers/catchers. A better bet would be Corey Ray if healthy, as he's certainly less valuable at this point, faster, and can hold his own or better in the outfield in a pinch if needed.

 

To be honest, the service clock concern is popular among fans and most teams don't worry about it. Let's look at Turang. If he's up for 30 days in September (I don't think he will be), that's 30 days. But that means we'll still have him for AT LEAST 6 more years in the organization. He likely wouldn't be ready to play much on the roster until 2023. So if he's up for less than 1.0 season before then, he could be an opening day starter for 2023 and still be under contract for 5 more years.

 

I still don't see Ray in the majors. He hasn't shown any reason to be in AAA, let alone the majors.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Sept callups are not going to be like years past. It means two more players. I think dedicated PR will be a thing of the past. One extra hitter and one extra pitcher seems likely.

[clancyphile]

"Cratered" walk rate,..... he's still walking about once every 10 AB's. As Dhonks said, there's a lot more to player development than looking at the stats.

 

OK, maybe there is super-plus defense not showing up in the stats. Yes, he is very young for AA/AAA. But when he was very young at A+, the plate discipline was still there, even when he hit the Uecker line exactly at Carolina in 2019. A .338 OBP is nothing to sneeze at. He hits eighth, gets on 34-35% of the time, when on base he can steal a base, now a sac bunt by the pitcher gets him to third instead of second.

 

What I'm seeing is that the slugging went up at Biloxi to .385 - 9 points higher that what he posted at Wisconsin in 2019. Bu the OBP has dropped 55 points from Turang's 2019 Wisconsin figure. And the AAA walk rate (in a very small sample) is looking even worse.

 

If we're talking a utility player, Weston Wilson is a better option, given his greater versatility (all four IF positions, LF, RF, and he can take the mound in a pinch). I'd also lean towards Hayden Cantrelle, who despite a sub-Uecker batting average, is posting a .374 OBP (if you go for 3TO types who can steal bases as bench players). Plus, Felix Valerio is also looking like a good choice for a utility role, albeit he's a ways away.

 

Seriously, if I'd been Stearns two weeks ago, I'd have offered Turang in that Eduardo Escobar deal, and let the Diamondbacks enjoy a left-handed Orlando Arcia.

[DuWayne Steurer]

You'd give up a consensus top 5 guy (I know, I Know, he's your #23) for a half season rental.

 

I don't even have a rebuttal for that because it's just so short-sighted that there's no argument I even want to try to make against that. I know looking at the stats and loving position guys that can pitch three innings a year is "your thing", but I don't even want to try to rebut this, other than to say well, that's your position and there's a lot more to scouting and moving guys up than looking at the stats on B-R.

 

Weston Wilson has pitched one inning in 5 years of minor league ball and now he can "pitch in a pinch"? Literally any position player can pitch in a pinch, even Willians Astudio. That doesn't mean he should, or you ever want to be in the position where you're making that choice.

[clancyphile]

You'd give up a consensus top 5 guy (I know, I Know, he's your #23) for a half season rental.

 

I don't even have a rebuttal for that because it's just so short-sighted that there's no argument I even want to try to make against that. I know looking at the stats and loving position guys that can pitch three innings a year is "your thing", but I don't even want to try to rebut this, other than to say well, that's your position and there's a lot more to scouting and moving guys up than looking at the stats on B-R.

 

Weston Wilson has pitched one inning in 5 years of minor league ball and now he can "pitch in a pinch"? Literally any position player can pitch in a pinch, even Willians Astudio. That doesn't mean he should, or you ever want to be in the position where you're making that choice.

 

I know he's a consensus top 5. But let's look over the top 5 from 2016's mid-season poll (viewtopic.php?f=64&t=34472) - since I think five years is a good time to judge a prospects list:

1. Orlando Arcia

2. Lewis Brinson

3. Josh Hader

4. Luis Ortiz

5. Phil Bickford

 

Only one - Josh Hader - is a significant contributor on the Brewers roster.

 

Arcia was a good-field sometimes-hit shortstop. He got dealt to the Braves for two pitchers, one of whom was DFAed.

 

Brinson was part of the package to land Yelich, so he was useful in that regard, but how has he done in the majors? Well, this year he cracked a .700 OPS.

 

Ortiz pitched less than six innings in the majors in 2018-2019, and is currently laboring in the Texas Rangers' system.

 

Brinson was DFAed, and picked up by the Dodgers.

 

Let's look at who is on the roster from that top 25:

Brandon Woodruff made that Top 25... at #13. Yet he's a co-ace of the rotation.

Freddy Peralta, also in the Big 3, was at #16.

Devin Williams, 2020 Rookie of the Year, was #19.

Corbin Burnes was at #22.

Brent Suter was at #26 in that poll.

Tyrone Taylor was #30

Adrian Houser, our #4 starter was tied for #46 - and had fallen 27 spots.

 

My top 5? - viewtopic.php?p=999759#p999759

1. Brent Suter

2. Josh Hader

3. Isan Diaz

4. Lucas Erceg

5. Phil Bickford

 

Suter and Hader are both key parts of the Brewers bullpen. Diaz, like Brinson from the consensus top 5, was part of the package for Yelich. Erceg's best hope is to master the Brooks Keischnick routine. Bickford... well, he's with the Dodgers.

 

I'll also add my note about Arcia in that ballot.

14. SS Orlando Arcia – The glove is there, but offensive performance at Colorado Springs raises questions.

 

In addition, there's one other benefit you can get from the stats: You can see similarities from the past, and perhaps figure out if you're at a time to sell high.

 

Looking at the numbers from both Arcia and Turang, I'm seeing both with a walk-rate drop from A+ to AA. I'm seeing what looks like offensive struggles at AAA (small sample in Turang's case). In the case of Turang, the OBP went DOWN 38 points in AA despite an eight-point rise in the batting average. Arcia saw his OBP go up ONE point when the batting average climbed 18 points.

 

So, yeah, I'll stand by my decision to offer the D-Backs Turang for Escobar, even up. It keeps the guy I really liked (Hummel) in the system, where he could help at RF/1B in 2022 and beyond, I don't have to deal Alberto Ciprian (hence, keeping the lottery ticket), and based on the stats, there's a good chance such a trade is selling a left-handed Orlando Arcia high when the Brewers have multiple young SS types (Urias and Adames) on the roster already, a decent 2B in Kolten Wong for another 2 years, plus competent infield options like Weston Wilson and Jamie Westbrook at AAA.

 

Plus, there's always the chance to extend Escobar for 2-3 years to lessen the blow of dealing a "consensus top 5 prospect."

[DHonks]

 

Plus, there's always the chance to extend Escobar for 2-3 years to lessen the blow of dealing a "consensus top 5 prospect."

 

I don't see how this happens. Our current options for 2022:

1b: Tellez, Vogelbach, Hiura, Shaw, Peterson, and a wild-card--Yelich

3b: Urias, Shaw, Peterson, future acquisition

DH: likely Vogelbach

 

Given that our rotation will start to get pricey, as will our closer, I don't know how much we can spend on pricey free agents like Escobar. Any 3b help will likely be acquired in a trade or as a free agent signing in late January or early September

[clancyphile]

 

Plus, there's always the chance to extend Escobar for 2-3 years to lessen the blow of dealing a "consensus top 5 prospect."

 

I don't see how this happens. Our current options for 2022:

1b: Tellez, Vogelbach, Hiura, Shaw, Peterson, and a wild-card--Yelich

3b: Urias, Shaw, Peterson, future acquisition

DH: likely Vogelbach

 

Given that our rotation will start to get pricey, as will our closer, I don't know how much we can spend on pricey free agents like Escobar. Any 3b help will likely be acquired in a trade or as a free agent signing in late January or early September

 

For 2022, I see this lineup assuming Escobar signs an extension:

2b: Wong

cf: Cain

lf: Yelich

ss: Adames

c: Narvaez

3b: Escobar

1b: Tellez

rf: Taylor

bench: Pina ©, Urias (3B/SS/2B), Peterson (IF/LF/RF), Wilson (IF/LF/RF), Bradley (OF)

 

I see Hiura and Shaw at AAA (the former could also be dealt in a change-of-scenery deal), Vogelbach I see ending up dealt in an Adam Lind-type deal (lottery tickets at the DSL/ACL level). Maybe they can also deal Bradley and Corey Ray takes that bench spot.

 

EDIT: If Hummel were still on the Crew assuming a straight Escobar-for-Turang deal, I see him displacing Wilson as a (C/1B/LF/RF).

[DuWayne Steurer]

Even if Turangs ceiling is somewhere around a Kolton Wong, You're trading a guy who has the potential to be a two and a half to four war player for half of a season of Escobar? You're assuming you can resign him when that is a complete unknown.

 

We all know prospects may flame out, but there are a lot of unknowns.

 

Trading six cost-controlled years of a guy who's ceiling maybe a four to five war WAR for potentially half of a season with the idea that you're going to re-sign a 750 OPS corner infielder for two more years in his 30s it's how small market teams languish and stay out of the playoffs for years and years.

 

There's no guarantee that turang we'll be in All-Star, but seems like the Brewers have to take a chance and hit on some of these guys. You can't just dump them at the first sign of adversity. They cannot compete if they don't give guys like this a chance. That's not how they operate.

 

Without three cost controlled all-star piitchers in our rotation this year would be below 500 right now

[clancyphile]

Even if Turangs ceiling is somewhere around a Kolton Wong, You're trading a guy who has the potential to be a two and a half to four war player for half of a season of Escobar? You're assuming you can resign him when that is a complete unknown.

 

We all know prospects may flame out, but there are a lot of unknowns.

 

Trading six cost-controlled years of a guy who's ceiling maybe a four to five war WAR for potentially half of a season with the idea that you're going to re-sign a 750 OPS corner infielder for two more years in his 30s it's how small market teams languish and stay out of the playoffs for years and years.

 

There's no guarantee that turang we'll be in All-Star, but seems like the Brewers have to take a chance and hit on some of these guys. You can't just dump them at the first sign of adversity. They cannot compete if they don't give guys like this a chance. That's not how they operate.

 

Without three cost controlled all-star piitchers in our rotation this year would be below 500 right now

 

Right now, Turang's statistical comp is Arcia. That's being generous, because Turang's OBP skills were far superior to Arcia's at those lower levels - so his relative drop is WORSE than the Arcia drop. If Turang ends up like Arcia, we will not even get 2.5 WAR over six seasons.

 

I agree the Brewers need to take their chances with prospects. My point is that it's hard to argue that Weston Wilson isn't more deserving of that chance than Turang. Or what about Jamie Westbrook? How about David Fry, a huge bat that is highly versatile?

 

For middle infield, my ballot has Korry Howell, Wilson, Valerio, and Cantrelle ahead of Turang. Plus, both Fry and Zavier Warren have seen some middle infield time (Warren's a shortstop they're converting to catcher. I'm interested in seeing if David Hamilton, Eduardo Garcia, Freddy Zamora, and Westbrook can really emerge as well.

 

I also get that trading prospects, even a Cooper Hummel, a Garrett Cooper, or a Mitch Haniger, also comes with risks as well. It's why my bias would have been to call up Hummel when Vogelbach got hurt. It's what the Crew did successfully with Trent Grisham (who got turned into Urias).

 

When it comes down to it, I think trading someone who profiles as a left-handed Arcia offensively is a smaller risk than dealing a Cooper Hummel, who struck me as a Mickey Tettleton-type offensively.

[sveumrules]

For middle infield, my ballot has Korry Howell, Wilson, Valerio, and Cantrelle ahead of Turang.

 

Howell isn't really a middle infielder though (42 games at CF, 9 at 3B, 9 at SS, 7 in RF) and is also a year older / a level behind Turang with a 29% K rate.

 

Wes Wilson also isn't really a middle infielder (22 games at 1B, 13 at SS, 10 at 2B, 12 in the OF) and is five years older than Turang.

 

Valerio pretty much projects as a 2B only guy (36 games at 2B, 17 at 3B, 17 at SS) and is three levels behind Turang. At least he is younger.

 

Cantrelle also projects as a 2B only guy (63 games at 2B, 7 at SS) and is a year older / two levels behind Turang with a 25% K rate.

 

None of those guys are anywhere near the defensive SS that Turang is, and are all either older, farther down the minor league ladder or both.

[sveumrules]

When it comes down to it, I think trading someone who profiles as a left-handed Arcia offensively is a smaller risk than dealing a Cooper Hummel, who struck me as a Mickey Tettleton-type offensively.

 

A left handed hitting Arcia is Turang's floor, Mickey Tettleton is a ceiling Hummel has a miniscule chance of ever reaching.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Right now, Turang's statistical comp is Arcia. That's being generous, because Turang's OBP skills were far superior to Arcia's at those lower levels - so his relative drop is WORSE than the Arcia drop. If Turang ends up like Arcia, we will not even get 2.5 WAR over six seasons.

 

I agree the Brewers need to take their chances with prospects. My point is that it's hard to argue that Weston Wilson isn't more deserving of that chance than Turang. Or what about Jamie Westbrook? How about David Fry, a huge bat that is highly versatile?

 

For middle infield, my ballot has Korry Howell, Wilson, Valerio, and Cantrelle ahead of Turang. Plus, both Fry and Zavier Warren have seen some middle infield time (Warren's a shortstop they're converting to catcher. I'm interested in seeing if David Hamilton, Eduardo Garcia, Freddy Zamora, and Westbrook can really emerge as well.

 

I also get that trading prospects, even a Cooper Hummel, a Garrett Cooper, or a Mitch Haniger, also comes with risks as well. It's why my bias would have been to call up Hummel when Vogelbach got hurt. It's what the Crew did successfully with Trent Grisham (who got turned into Urias).

 

When it comes down to it, I think trading someone who profiles as a left-handed Arcia offensively is a smaller risk than dealing a Cooper Hummel, who struck me as a Mickey Tettleton-type offensively.

 

Except there are a few key differences between Turang and Arcia. The question with Turang is will be develop power. Arcia developed it, he just couldn't utilize it much because of other issues. Arcia is also much more of a pull hitter whereas Turang is a spray line drives to all fields guy. I'm sure you could find more applicable negative comps as well, but his statistical profile from Biloxi seems much more akin to Wong or Adam Frazier or the recent version of Miguel Rojas than Arcia. That type of profile can play, especially when it is attached to a solid middle infield defender.

 

Also, the Brewers started the year with three healthy shortstops on their full season minor league rosters (Turang, Hamilton, Zamora) and one who was injured (Pinero). A lot of guys have seen time at shortstop simply because someone has to play there.

[clancyphile]

Right now, Turang's statistical comp is Arcia. That's being generous, because Turang's OBP skills were far superior to Arcia's at those lower levels - so his relative drop is WORSE than the Arcia drop. If Turang ends up like Arcia, we will not even get 2.5 WAR over six seasons.

 

I agree the Brewers need to take their chances with prospects. My point is that it's hard to argue that Weston Wilson isn't more deserving of that chance than Turang. Or what about Jamie Westbrook? How about David Fry, a huge bat that is highly versatile?

 

For middle infield, my ballot has Korry Howell, Wilson, Valerio, and Cantrelle ahead of Turang. Plus, both Fry and Zavier Warren have seen some middle infield time (Warren's a shortstop they're converting to catcher. I'm interested in seeing if David Hamilton, Eduardo Garcia, Freddy Zamora, and Westbrook can really emerge as well.

 

I also get that trading prospects, even a Cooper Hummel, a Garrett Cooper, or a Mitch Haniger, also comes with risks as well. It's why my bias would have been to call up Hummel when Vogelbach got hurt. It's what the Crew did successfully with Trent Grisham (who got turned into Urias).

 

When it comes down to it, I think trading someone who profiles as a left-handed Arcia offensively is a smaller risk than dealing a Cooper Hummel, who struck me as a Mickey Tettleton-type offensively.

 

Except there are a few key differences between Turang and Arcia. The question with Turang is will be develop power. Arcia developed it, he just couldn't utilize it much because of other issues. Arcia is also much more of a pull hitter whereas Turang is a spray line drives to all fields guy. I'm sure you could find more applicable negative comps as well, but his statistical profile from Biloxi seems much more akin to Wong or Adam Frazier or the recent version of Miguel Rojas than Arcia. That type of profile can play, especially when it is attached to a solid middle infield defender.

 

Also, the Brewers started the year with three healthy shortstops on their full season minor league rosters (Turang, Hamilton, Zamora) and one who was injured (Pinero). A lot of guys have seen time at shortstop simply because someone has to play there.

 

If Turang emerges as a Wong type of offensive profile at short, that would not be bad. But I think Wilson, despite the fact that his time at shortstop has been sporadic, but a .956 fielding percentage isn't too shabby for 25 games over his minor league career. He's had 55 games at second in that time. He's primarily a corner infielder, but looks like a very competent middle infielder who can handle the corner outfield spots as well (4 assists from right field in 28 games). His bat has far fewer questions than Turang's at this point.