Joey Gallo traded to Yankees

[Eye Black]

From Jeff Passan…

 

BREAKING: The New York Yankees are finalizing a deal to acquire outfielder Joey Gallo from the Texas Rangers, sources tell ESPN. The deal is pending medical review.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Man. That's a lot of power in that lineup.

[KeithStone53151]

Just gross, boo the Yankees

[KeithStone53151]

I'm really looking forward to a player traded to the Yankees refusing to shave. I just kinda want to see how it works out. Maybe this will be the guy that refuses

[Austin Tatious]

I wonder if we were involved in these discussions? My speculation would be yes, and our management stayed within their discipline to not over-pay. Without knowing what names were discussed, it's hard to assess it. But generally, I like Stearns' and Arnold's commitment to stay within their value parameters, i.e., not overpaying.

 

I would have liked Gallo, but you don't just throw a Hedbert Perez overboard because you get hyped up to make a deal. I compliment them on their discipline.

[Brewcrewin07]

Lindsey Adler

@lindseyadler

·

2m

Hearing with

@ThreeTwoEephus

and

@Ken_Rosenthal

that players expected (though not confirmed) to go to Texas from the Yankees would include:

 

Trevor Hauver, Ezequiel Duran, Everson Pereira, Randy Vasquez, Glen Otto, and possibly one more player.

[tmwiese55]

I kind of chuckled at this one. Yanks are 8.5 back in the division and one of their biggest problems is their whole lineup is HR or bust types (outside of DJ who's struggled for him). And they still trade for a guy very similar. I guess he's controlled another year and lefty HR hitters in Yankee stadium is a plus, but just seems like classic Yanks questionable move to me. Granted, I don't know anything of those prospects but you'd think 1-2 have some legit value.

[KeithStone53151]

I kind of chuckled at this one. Yanks are 8.5 back in the division and one of their biggest problems is their whole lineup is HR or bust types (outside of DJ who's struggled for him). And they still trade for a guy very similar. I guess he's controlled another year and lefty HR hitters in Yankee stadium is a plus, but just seems like classic Yanks questionable move to me. Granted, I don't know anything of those prospects but you'd think 1-2 have some legit value.

 

I briefly checked their stats on the year and all are performing well, albeit old for their level. I kinda view this as trading guys like gray/Howell types

[LouisEly]

Getting an early start on next year.

 

Just glad he's staying in the AL.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Lindsey Adler

@lindseyadler

·

2m

Hearing with

@ThreeTwoEephus

and

@Ken_Rosenthal

that players expected (though not confirmed) to go to Texas from the Yankees would include:

 

Trevor Hauver, Ezequiel Duran, Everson Pereira, Randy Vasquez, Glen Otto, and possibly one more player.

If true, this would be quite the haul for 1.5 years of Gallo. Trevor Hauver (#23 per MLB pipeline), Ezequiel Duran (#15), Everson Pereira (#17), Randy Vasquez (UR), Glen Otto (#28). MLB trade rumors says the other player is Josh Smith (#14). That's a lot even if Smith is not included. Yankees have arguably a top 5 farm system.

[umphrey]

Really feels like quantity over quality though, Duran may be the only one they cared about

[brewcrewdue80]

Lindsey Adler

@lindseyadler

·

2m

Hearing with

@ThreeTwoEephus

and

@Ken_Rosenthal

that players expected (though not confirmed) to go to Texas from the Yankees would include:

 

Trevor Hauver, Ezequiel Duran, Everson Pereira, Randy Vasquez, Glen Otto, and possibly one more player.

If true, this would be quite the haul for 1.5 years of Gallo. Trevor Hauver (#23 per MLB pipeline), Ezequiel Duran (#15), Everson Pereira (#17), Randy Vasquez (UR), Glen Otto (#28). MLB trade rumors says the other player is Josh Smith (#14). That's a lot even if Smith is not included. Yankees have arguably a top 5 farm system.

 

Wasn't the rumor an overpay offer for Gallo on the table? So this would seem to just that.

[Eye Black]

Sounds like the details of the Gallo trade are going to change, but he’s still expected to end up in the Bronx…

 

Per Jeff Passan:

 

The New York Yankees’ deal to acquire outfielder Joey Gallo from Texas had undergone slight adjustments, sources tell ESPN, but is expected to be finalized Thursday.

 

As @JackCurryYES said, this version will send four prospects to Texas, not six, and Joely Rodriguez to New York.

 

The return to Texas for OF Joey Gallo and left-handed reliever Joely Rodriguez, if the trade is completed as expected, would be 2B Ezequiel Duran, SS Josh Smith, right-hander Glenn Otto and 2B/OF Trevor Hauver, per sources.

[JosephC]

Value-wise, this looks like a horrible deal for Texas, especially since it now sounds like they are picking up nearly all of Gallo's contract (which is odd since he is in arbitration, so we don't know what his 2022 salary will be).

 

Pro-rating 2020 and 2021 out to full seasons, Gallo's been a 3.7 fWAR player/4.5 bWAR player, so call him a 4.1 WAR player, so that projects him as being good for 5.5 WAR over the next 1 1/3 season. 5.5 million * 9 = 49.5 million total value and if the Rangers do pay most of his salary (let's say 80%), that means the Yankees probably only pay him about 2.5 million which makes Gallo's surplus value about 47 million.

 

Joely Rodriguez is a +fWAR and -bWAR player, pretty much a complete neutral acquisition with no real surplus value. He doesn't figure into the equation at all.

 

Based on Baseball America, Fangraphs, Keith Law and MLB.com, I'd put the prospects going to Texas in the following groups-

Ezequiel Duran = Bottom 1/3 top 300 prospect, right around #250. That puts his prospect surplus value at 9.5 million.

Josh Smith has a plus hit tool but seems to be average in about everything else. I'd guess in most systems, he's probably a #12-#15. Role-player prospect = 5.5 million.

Glenn Otto and Trevor Hauver were fringe prospect quality heading into the season, but have done well enough where both probably fit best in the grey area between role-player and fringe = 3.85 million for each.

So I'd put the combined prospect surplus value of the 4 prospects at 22.7 million, which is less than half of Gallo's surplus value (depending on how much salary the Ranger's pick up). One of the most lop-sided trades I've seen since I've been doing these calculations.

[MrTPlush]

Always thought the prospects of Joey Gallo coming here were a little overrated. Good player, but he is only controllable another year and his OPS is .869 with a career mark of .833. Low average and lots of K's. It would have helped our line up, but he is no Jose Ramirez.

[KeithStone53151]

i always tend to feel like the Yankees rip teams off in trades whenever they make one. To the point that it boggles my mind that they actually can get trades done. Maybe his market just wasn't that strong I guess, which seems weird.

 

One thing I notice about the prospects in this trade is they all tend to be doing well at levels much lower than their age should indicate. Duran is 22 and in high A. Smith is 23 and opened in low A, recently moved up to high A. Otto is 25 and opened in AA, only has 2 appearances this year in AAA. Hauver is 22 and in low A. These guys are probably league average or so age-wise, Duran might be a year or so young for high A...but generally good prospects come through a couple years young to most levels. So if some orgs don't notice this stuff, maybe we need to leave Joe Gray back down to low A and trade him next year when he's rocking an 1100 OPS down there.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Value-wise, this looks like a horrible deal for Texas, especially since it now sounds like they are picking up nearly all of Gallo's contract (which is odd since he is in arbitration, so we don't know what his 2022 salary will be).

 

Pro-rating 2020 and 2021 out to full seasons, Gallo's been a 3.7 fWAR player/4.5 bWAR player, so call him a 4.1 WAR player, so that projects him as being good for 5.5 WAR over the next 1 1/3 season. 5.5 million * 9 = 49.5 million total value and if the Rangers do pay most of his salary (let's say 80%), that means the Yankees probably only pay him about 2.5 million which makes Gallo's surplus value about 47 million.

 

Joely Rodriguez is a +fWAR and -bWAR player, pretty much a complete neutral acquisition with no real surplus value. He doesn't figure into the equation at all.

 

Based on Baseball America, Fangraphs, Keith Law and MLB.com, I'd put the prospects going to Texas in the following groups-

Ezequiel Duran = Bottom 1/3 top 300 prospect, right around #250. That puts his prospect surplus value at 9.5 million.

Josh Smith has a plus hit tool but seems to be average in about everything else. I'd guess in most systems, he's probably a #12-#15. Role-player prospect = 5.5 million.

Glenn Otto and Trevor Hauver were fringe prospect quality heading into the season, but have done well enough where both probably fit best in the grey area between role-player and fringe = 3.85 million for each.

So I'd put the combined prospect surplus value of the 4 prospects at 22.7 million, which is less than half of Gallo's surplus value (depending on how much salary the Ranger's pick up). One of the most lop-sided trades I've seen since I've been doing these calculations.

How many of these have been updated? I know Fangraphs has Duran about 130. I also wonder if there is also more inertia in those rankings than some teams, who might be more willing to think the improvements are real because of the missing year. Not saying it was a good or bad trade, just that evaluating based on prospect rankings is dicier than normal this year.

[Lathund]

How many of these have been updated? I know Fangraphs has Duran about 130. I also wonder if there is also more inertia in those rankings than some teams, who might be more willing to think the improvements are real because of the missing year. Not saying it was a good or bad trade, just that evaluating based on prospect rankings is dicier than normal this year.

 

BA prospect editor:

 

 

The 2021 preseason rankings will have been among the least accurate preseason rankings ever, due to the lack of minor league baseball in 2020. Seems like the consensus among the prospect people I've seen is that it seems like a fair trade.

[Thurston Fluff]

One thing I notice about the prospects in this trade is they all tend to be doing well at levels much lower than their age should indicate. Duran is 22 and in high A. Smith is 23 and opened in low A, recently moved up to high A. Otto is 25 and opened in AA, only has 2 appearances this year in AAA. Hauver is 22 and in low A. These guys are probably league average or so age-wise, Duran might be a year or so young for high A...but generally good prospects come through a couple years young to most levels. So if some orgs don't notice this stuff, maybe we need to leave Joe Gray back down to low A and trade him next year when he's rocking an 1100 OPS down there.

 

Given the lost year for most minor leaguers it shouldn't be surprising some prospects will be a little old for their level compared to normal years.

[Simba2020]

I've assumed the Yankees would be on the hook for all of Gallo's 2022 salary but none of his remaining 2021 salary. If that were to be true, my analysis of the trade would have it as a pretty balanced deadline trade.

[brooks_quichenick]

I've assumed the Yankees would be on the hook for all of Gallo's 2022 salary but none of his remaining 2021 salary. If that were to be true, my analysis of the trade would have it as a pretty balanced deadline trade.

 

That's correct, the Rangers are paying the remainder of his 2021 salary.

[JosephC]

I also wonder if there is also more inertia in those rankings than some teams, who might be more willing to think the improvements are real because of the missing year. Not saying it was a good or bad trade, just that evaluating based on prospect rankings is dicier than normal this year.

 

Yeah, I agree with what you are saying 100%. There are certainly some exceptions for guys just drafted and young international guys, but prospect valuations are largely made of what has happened this year and the previous year. Last year is largely based on reports from what a guy did in the developmental camps, which may have validity or could just as easily be a complete fabrication.

 

I cranked the numbers just because I was interested and then posted them because I thought others might be interested in seeing them. But are this year's trade-value-guesses more shaky than usual, I would definitely say so.