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Givens to the Reds


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Just hand them the divisional banner already. I mean, they were already better than the Brewers, and adding 3-relievers only makes Stearns look like a complete clown.
"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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I'm not a believer in their pitching at all personally.

 

I'll be surprised if they finish 2nd and completely shocked if they finish 1st.

 

Same. Lineup will keep them afloat for a possible Wild Card spot. Too much ground to make up in the division, though. Brewers would have to have a historic collapse. I know, I know ... been there, done that.

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I'm not a believer in their pitching at all personally.

 

I'll be surprised if they finish 2nd and completely shocked if they finish 1st.

 

Same. Lineup will keep them afloat for a possible Wild Card spot. Too much ground to make up in the division, though. Brewers would have to have a historic collapse. I know, I know ... been there, done that.

 

The last Wild Card spot and the division (Brewers) are only one game different in the standings. And for quite a bit of the season hasn't the 2nd wild card had a better record than whoever was leading the NL Central? And if the Padres tack on more before trading deadline, it really is about catching the Brewers or not get in. So not get in, is the correct answer. ;)

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If the Brewers and the wild card teams from the west play .500 the reds will need to go 37-24 to even have a shot which seems unlikely. So they are banking on someone collapsing. That is harder for teams to do the 2nd half of the year because contending teams will play a lot of teams that have sold their good pieces - Pirates, Twins and Cubs for the Brewers.
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If the Brewers and the wild card teams from the west play .500 the reds will need to go 37-24 to even have a shot which seems unlikely. So they are banking on someone collapsing. That is harder for teams to do the 2nd half of the year because contending teams will play a lot of teams that have sold their good pieces - Pirates, Twins and Cubs for the Brewers.

 

It's not all that unlikely for 1 of those 4 teams to play 500 ball the rest of the way. Especially considering the 3 NL West teams going to beat up on each other plenty. And 37-24 isn't all that unlikely considering their schedule. They get to play 3 against us, which sounds weird because we're probably tougher than playing the Rockies or something...but they can give us losses by winning those games. Fangraphs has them with the easiest strength of schedule in all of baseball the rest of the way. It's not going to take much for the division race to get interesting. They hit an 8 of 10 stretch and suddenly it's 4-5 games instead of 7.

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If the Brewers and the wild card teams from the west play .500 the reds will need to go 37-24 to even have a shot which seems unlikely. So they are banking on someone collapsing. That is harder for teams to do the 2nd half of the year because contending teams will play a lot of teams that have sold their good pieces - Pirates, Twins and Cubs for the Brewers.

 

FWIW Brewers still play La and SF a total of 10 games not to mention those teams playing against eachother SD/LA/SF. Meanwhile, Cincy only plays 2 3 game sets vs Mil and LA. It's possibly easy for them to make up ground when one of the teams ahead of you will lose up to 17games or 8.5 games on split. And I'm not even counting games vs NY Mets these teams still play. Cincy has 28 games vs deadline sellers and bottom feeders Pitt, Cubs, Marlins, Twins, Tigers with 4 vs Wash I'm not including but that may make 32 games vs teams that are positioning themselves for the draft vs playoffs. Brewers meanwhile have 21 such games looking past deadline.

 

That's just keeping in mind to consider why they would believe they have a chance to make the playoffs. I'm not anointing them playoff bound. I'm not sure they are a better team after the 3RP acquired. Just there's a path that gaining 7+ games down this stretch is possible on 1 of the teams ahead of them.

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If the Brewers and the wild card teams from the west play .500 the reds will need to go 37-24 to even have a shot which seems unlikely. So they are banking on someone collapsing. That is harder for teams to do the 2nd half of the year because contending teams will play a lot of teams that have sold their good pieces - Pirates, Twins and Cubs for the Brewers.

 

It's not all that unlikely for 1 of those 4 teams to play 500 ball the rest of the way. Especially considering the 3 NL West teams going to beat up on each other plenty. And 37-24 isn't all that unlikely considering their schedule. They get to play 3 against us, which sounds weird because we're probably tougher than playing the Rockies or something...but they can give us losses by winning those games. Fangraphs has them with the easiest strength of schedule in all of baseball the rest of the way. It's not going to take much for the division race to get interesting. They hit an 8 of 10 stretch and suddenly it's 4-5 games instead of 7.

 

Sure they can make a run but they haven't shown much to make you think they will simply by adding a few relievers. They have been average at home, average on the road, and have a negative run differential. I know their schedule is easy but 13 over in a 60 game span would be very impressive with what they have shown so far. Maybe their rotation will turn it around because that would make that would make the turnaround more likely.

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If the Brewers and the wild card teams from the west play .500 the reds will need to go 37-24 to even have a shot which seems unlikely. So they are banking on someone collapsing. That is harder for teams to do the 2nd half of the year because contending teams will play a lot of teams that have sold their good pieces - Pirates, Twins and Cubs for the Brewers.

 

FWIW Brewers still play La and SF a total of 10 games not to mention those teams playing against eachother SD/LA/SF. Meanwhile, Cincy only plays 2 3 game sets vs Mil and LA. It's possibly easy for them to make up ground when one of the teams ahead of you will lose up to 17games or 8.5 games on split. And I'm not even counting games vs NY Mets these teams still play. Cincy has 28 games vs deadline sellers and bottom feeders Pitt, Cubs, Marlins, Twins, Tigers with 4 vs Wash I'm not including but that may make 32 games vs teams that are positioning themselves for the draft vs playoffs. Brewers meanwhile have 21 such games looking past deadline.

 

That's just keeping in mind to consider why they would believe they have a chance to make the playoffs. I'm not anointing them playoff bound. I'm not sure they are a better team after the 3RP acquired. Just there's a path that gaining 7+ games down this stretch is possible on 1 of the teams ahead of them.

 

Yeah I saw the Reds schedule a bit a you guys are right it is really easy so they could make a run. The Brewers schedule outside of the Dodgers and Giants games is not super hard either. It really depends what the Cardinals look like down the stretch bc we get them a lot - 13 games. We also have something like 22 other games against sellers as well.

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Makes sense for the Reds. We know the Pirates and the Cubs have thrown in the towel. Reds have 12 games left against Pirates. The rest of their schedule is pretty easy too. Reds have only one team to catch in the division. They are only 5 back in the wild card, albeit to teams that are loaded and getting better.
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If the Brewers and the wild card teams from the west play .500 the reds will need to go 37-24 to even have a shot which seems unlikely. So they are banking on someone collapsing. That is harder for teams to do the 2nd half of the year because contending teams will play a lot of teams that have sold their good pieces - Pirates, Twins and Cubs for the Brewers.

 

It's not all that unlikely for 1 of those 4 teams to play 500 ball the rest of the way. Especially considering the 3 NL West teams going to beat up on each other plenty. And 37-24 isn't all that unlikely considering their schedule. They get to play 3 against us, which sounds weird because we're probably tougher than playing the Rockies or something...but they can give us losses by winning those games. Fangraphs has them with the easiest strength of schedule in all of baseball the rest of the way. It's not going to take much for the division race to get interesting. They hit an 8 of 10 stretch and suddenly it's 4-5 games instead of 7.

 

Sure they can make a run but they haven't shown much to make you think they will simply by adding a few relievers. They have been average at home, average on the road, and have a negative run differential. I know their schedule is easy but 13 over in a 60 game span would be very impressive with what they have shown so far. Maybe their rotation will turn it around because that would make that would make the turnaround more likely.

 

The relievers probably aren't enough, but those relievers than then renting Story could really be a game changer for them. I highly doubt they are done with just these moves.

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The relievers probably aren't enough, but those relievers than then renting Story could really be a game changer for them. I highly doubt they are done with just these moves.

 

I hope they spend a bunch to acquire Story. Because Story is not having a great year. Colorado probably wishes they traded him away a month ago. I know he has been great, especially for a SS. But he is just OPSing .741 this year. And then you get nothing when he goes to another team next year.

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