Adam Frazier Traded to Padres (11/22 Update Dealt to Mariners)

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

With Frazier you're getting 1+ years of a pretty average career player who is having what is most likely an unsustainably great season. I think the expectations for what his trade value should have been are being considerably overestimated.

 

I think you are selling Marcano short a bit as a prospect, too. Ranking #5 in the Padres' stacked system is no small feat. Marcano would likely be #1 or #2 in the Brewers' system (ahead of Turang). He's legit.

 

With Tatis, Machado, and Cronenworth all either locked up or controllable for quite a few years, the Padres have people to hold down the infield for a while. This is one where Marcano's value is probably a lot higher for most other teams than it is for the Padres.

 

Bingo ... same reason why the Brewers were able to get their hands on another former high-end top middle infield prospect in Luis Urias last year.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

FWIW, fangraphs is not a fan of Marcano. They had him listed at #11 with a future value of 40. They see a light hitting utility infielder with decent but not great defense. In comparison, a Brewer in AAA with a FV of 40 is Peyton Henry. They rate both Hamilton and Zamora slightly higher than Marcano (FV 40+). Marcano and two lottery tickets seems like light return for 1.5 years of Frazier.

 

Interesting to note that while the Padres still have a number of premium prospects, they don't have the depth that the Brewers have (according to fangraphs). Padres 40 FV start at #10. The Brewers don't start their 40 FV prospects until #20.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

FWIW, fangraphs is not a fan of Marcano. They had him listed at #11 with a future value of 40. They see a light hitting utility infielder with decent but not great defense. In comparison, a Brewer in AAA with a FV of 40 is Peyton Henry. They rate both Hamilton and Zamora slightly higher than Marcano (FV 40+). Marcano and two lottery tickets seems like light return for 1.5 years of Frazier.

 

Interesting to note that while the Padres still have a number of premium prospects, they don't have the depth that the Brewers have (according to fangraphs). Padres 40 FV start at #10. The Brewers don't start their 40 FV prospects until #20.

 

MLB Pipeline is much more bullish on him, ranking him at #5 with a 50 future value. So in that case, Marcano and two prospects (definitely not lottery tickets in the understood use of that term) seems better. In the end, its in the eye of the beholder. I personally have always viewed MLB Pipeline as more accurate on prospect value than Fangraphs.

[Simba2020]

With Frazier you're getting 1+ years of a pretty average career player who is having what is most likely an unsustainably great season. I think the expectations for what his trade value should have been are being considerably overestimated.

 

I think you are selling Marcano short a bit as a prospect, too. Ranking #5 in the Padres' stacked system is no small feat. Marcano would likely be #1 or #2 in the Brewers' system (ahead of Turang). He's legit.

Marcano isn't a bad prospect but I'd still say Turang is the better prospect of the two. Baseball America has Turang with a 60 hit tool and 40 power versus 50 and 30 for Marcano. Speed and defense are identical.

 

I too prefer MLB pipeline or BA to fangraphs ratings.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

With Frazier you're getting 1+ years of a pretty average career player who is having what is most likely an unsustainably great season. I think the expectations for what his trade value should have been are being considerably overestimated.

 

I think you are selling Marcano short a bit as a prospect, too. Ranking #5 in the Padres' stacked system is no small feat. Marcano would likely be #1 or #2 in the Brewers' system (ahead of Turang). He's legit.

Marcano isn't a bad prospect but I'd still say Turang is the better prospect of the two. Baseball America has Turang with a 60 hit tool and 40 power versus 50 and 30 for Marcano. Speed and defense are identical.

 

I too prefer MLB pipeline or BA to fangraphs ratings.

 

Turang had his draft status going for him and initially inflated his prospect rating. A guy like Marcano who signed a modest international FA deal is starting substantially lower on the prospect totem pole. It is certainly worth noting that Marcano is only roughly 2 months older than Turang, yet already has 50 MLB plate appearances on his ledger.

[Roderick]

Jeff Passan tweet

 

Full return for Adam Frazier here from Kiley. Marcano is the main guy, but Jack* Suwinski is OPSing around .950 at AA and Miliano is a strikeout machine, with 59 in 30 innings between both Class A levels this season.

 

 

 

Makes more sense that the Pirates had to kick in money to equalize the trade.

[brewcrewdue80]

With Frazier you're getting 1+ years of a pretty average career player who is having what is most likely an unsustainably great season. I think the expectations for what his trade value should have been are being considerably overestimated.

 

Frazier has 10+BWAR to his name and over 2 this year. Nothing about that says average.

 

With Frazier you're getting 1+ years of a pretty average career player who is having what is most likely an unsustainably great season. I think the expectations for what his trade value should have been are being considerably overestimated.

 

I think you are selling Marcano short a bit as a prospect, too. Ranking #5 in the Padres' stacked system is no small feat. Marcano would likely be #1 or #2 in the Brewers' system (ahead of Turang). He's legit.

 

Turang is in the top 80 MLB prospects while Marcano is not. So no he would not be #1(Mitchell) or #2.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

With Frazier you're getting 1+ years of a pretty average career player who is having what is most likely an unsustainably great season. I think the expectations for what his trade value should have been are being considerably overestimated.

 

Frazier has 10+BWAR to his name and over 2 this year. Nothing about that says average.

 

With Frazier you're getting 1+ years of a pretty average career player who is having what is most likely an unsustainably great season. I think the expectations for what his trade value should have been are being considerably overestimated.

 

I think you are selling Marcano short a bit as a prospect, too. Ranking #5 in the Padres' stacked system is no small feat. Marcano would likely be #1 or #2 in the Brewers' system (ahead of Turang). He's legit.

 

Turang is in the top 80 MLB prospects while Marcano is not. So no he would not be #1(Mitchell) or #2.

 

Turang is a good prospect, but much of his "top 80 MLB prospect" status is due to where he was drafted. You typically don't debut in the majors as a 21-year-old, especially for a good team like the Padres, unless you are a legit MLB prospect.

[brewcrewdue80]

 

I think you are selling Marcano short a bit as a prospect, too. Ranking #5 in the Padres' stacked system is no small feat. Marcano would likely be #1 or #2 in the Brewers' system (ahead of Turang). He's legit.

Marcano isn't a bad prospect but I'd still say Turang is the better prospect of the two. Baseball America has Turang with a 60 hit tool and 40 power versus 50 and 30 for Marcano. Speed and defense are identical.

 

I too prefer MLB pipeline or BA to fangraphs ratings.

 

Turang had his draft status going for him and initially inflated his prospect rating. A guy like Marcano who signed a modest international FA deal is starting substantially lower on the prospect totem pole. It is certainly worth noting that Marcano is only roughly 2 months older than Turang, yet already has 50 MLB plate appearances on his ledger.

 

Thing about Turang and draft status is that he was ranked lower and now ranks higher. So mlb.com feels he's more than worthy of the rank beyond just the draft ranking.

 

I can't believe Pittsburgh jumped at this trade as like I said, seems they are buying extremely high on the non-headliners having a good(but not great) year. Frazier is an extremely tough out and Pittsburgh gave him away at no cost for the rest of '21 and another year of control. So SD can flip him this off-season and get the same or better return back likely. That or have a 3WAR middle infielder who's bat likely plays well in SD and the NL West stadiums.

[sveumrules]

With Frazier you're getting 1+ years of a pretty average career player who is having what is most likely an unsustainably great season. I think the expectations for what his trade value should have been are being considerably overestimated.

 

Frazier has 10+BWAR to his name and over 2 this year. Nothing about that says average.

 

Ten bWAR in essentially five seasons. 2 WAR per year = average.

 

Career OPS+ of 105 is 5% better than average.

 

His sprint speed of 27.1 ft/s is 256th out of 500 qualifiers on the StatCast leaderboard.

 

Frazier is about as average as it gets.

[wibadgers23]

Frazier probably just seems like a perennial all-star because we're used to seeing him murder the Brewers seemingly every year.

[timpep]

With Frazier you're getting 1+ years of a pretty average career player who is having what is most likely an unsustainably great season. I think the expectations for what his trade value should have been are being considerably overestimated.

 

Frazier has 10+BWAR to his name and over 2 this year. Nothing about that says average.

 

Ten bWAR in essentially five seasons. 2 WAR per year = average.

 

Career OPS+ of 105 is 5% better than average.

 

His sprint speed of 27.1 ft/s is 256th out of 500 qualifiers on the StatCast leaderboard.

 

Frazier is about as average as it gets.

 

If we're using bWAR lets looks at bWAA(wins above average). He's at 3.2 WAA for career and 3.6 wins above average the last 4 years. I think he's solidly above average.

[brewcrewdue80]

With Frazier you're getting 1+ years of a pretty average career player who is having what is most likely an unsustainably great season. I think the expectations for what his trade value should have been are being considerably overestimated.

 

Frazier has 10+BWAR to his name and over 2 this year. Nothing about that says average.

 

Ten bWAR in essentially five seasons. 2 WAR per year = average.

 

Career OPS+ of 105 is 5% better than average.

 

His sprint speed of 27.1 ft/s is 256th out of 500 qualifiers on the StatCast leaderboard

 

Frazier is about as average as it gets.

Lol on sprint comp and sprint speed making Frazier claim average. Also bat is at 129OPS+

 

By that career logic, Wong and Garcia arent even close at being average. Cain in a similar career arc as where Frazier is, was far below average.

Frazier is at 2.9BWar for this season. That would be #1 for Brewer position players tied with Adames who may be coming back to earth after that initial surge joining the team. What you can say is based on 10WAR in the career of games he's played Frazier will give SD another 1WAR with 60games left in the season. A 3.9WAR player then for the year and at least 3WAR next season. I just think he should have more return value because his history is a consistent 2-3WAR player over 162games. Unlike jon Schoop who we sent Villar, Ortiz, And Jean Carmona on just pure rental with no money sent to us.

[sveumrules]

His sprint speed is pretty much exactly MLB average, that would be a data point supporting his average-ness. If you prefer it expressed in terms of runs BRef has him -3 for his career on the bases & FanGraphs has him at +2.8, so just about as average as it gets.

 

Yes, he has a 129 OPS+ so far this year in 428 PAs. In 1,804 PAs prior to this year his OPS+ was a very average 99.

 

His track record of being average is much longer than his track record of being above average & the prospects going to PIT seem to indicate teams believed Frazier's true talent is closer to his career 105 OPS+ or his 110 wRC+ rest of season ZiPS than it is to his current 129 OPS+.

 

Other indicators he might be over-achieving/possibly due for regression would be a .298 xBA/.387 xSLG vs actual marks of .324/.447 or a .359 BABIP currently vs a career .314 mark or Hard Hit/Barrel rates that rank in the bottom 3% of MLB.

 

If the Brewers were perhaps interested & Turang presumably needed to be included to surpass the Padres package, I'm glad Stearns & company passed, personally.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Bref had him at 2.7 WAR in 18 (in just 113 games) which is pretty decently above average.

 

2.5 WAR in 19 in 152 games, which is just a shade north of average.

 

.8 WAR in 58 games in 20, which again, is just a shade above average.

 

His 162 game average for his career is 2.7 WAR.

 

He's not a perennial all star, but he's also not a schlub. He might be perennially slightly above average, but he doesn't swing wildly from year to year, and there has to be some value to his predictably slightly above average performance.

[pitchleague]

He seems like a more modern Neil Walker to me. He does the little things right and can hit the ball, but he’s definitely not the most dangerous bat in a lineup.

 

Good for the Padres. And good for the Pirates if their prospects pan out.

[sveumrules]

After regressing in real time & posting an 86 OPS+ over his 211 post-trade PAs with the Padres, San Diego has decided to move on from Frazier, dealing him to the Mariners for Ray Kerr & Corey Rosier.

[Devinep]

What in god’s name are the padres doing? This return is putrid. I bet 28 other gms wish they knew the price was this low