Trade Deadline Rumors

[phnxcrew]

If some one offered me three dollars for my car, I guess I’d be “gun shy “ too and hang up the phone. these guys are professionals, and won’t ask for the teams only great reliever when they’re in first place heading into the playoffs. If they do that, they’re just an idiot or not worth the time.

[Brewcrewin07]

If some one offered me three dollars for my car, I guess I’d be “gun shy “ too and hang up the phone. these guys are professionals, and won’t ask for the teams only great reliever when they’re in first place heading into the playoffs. If they do that, they’re just an idiot or not worth the time.

 

This +1000. This is what i mean by sensing Stearns is gun shy. I mean none of us know for sure, but I think the perception that teams's asks for big name players is outrageous in most cases. I don't think that's the case at all. For example, it's not like the Rockies are going to say "Give us Hader for Story". The Rockies know that is never going to happen, and it would be disrespectful to even ask that from the Brewers. So, basing it on the assumption that teams aren't asking for playoff contenders best players(knowing that it's not going to happen), then to me, nothing is too cost prohibitive. You have to give to get. Besides, look at deals over the past years(for big names) and every time it seems when the details come out, the returns aren't nearly what most people expect they would be. In fact, typically far from it.

[DuWayne Steurer]

If some one offered me three dollars for my car, I guess I’d be “gun shy “ too and hang up the phone. these guys are professionals, and won’t ask for the teams only great reliever when they’re in first place heading into the playoffs. If they do that, they’re just an idiot or not worth the time.

 

This +1000. This is what i mean by sensing Stearns is gun shy. I mean none of us know for sure, but I think the perception that teams's asks for big name players is outrageous in most cases. I don't think that's the case at all. For example, it's not like the Rockies are going to say "Give us Hader for Story". The Rockies know that is never going to happen, and it would be disrespectful to even ask that from the Brewers. So, basing it on the assumption that teams aren't asking for playoff contenders best players(knowing that it's not going to happen), then to me, nothing is too cost prohibitive. You have to give to get. Besides, look at deals over the past years(for big names) and every time it seems when the details come out, the returns aren't nearly what most people expect they would be. In fact, typically far from it.

 

Again though, you've advocated trading Turang, Mitchell, Ashby, and Small. Not 2 of them, or some combo of them, but all of them. The Brewers best chance to win a world series isn't going ALL IN this year by tossing all their chips on the table, it's being competitive for a number of years. The best way to be competitive for a number of years is by not trading ALL of their top tier of young controllable talent for a Trevor Story or Jose Ramirez for a one-shot run to glory.

 

The same mindset would have seen us trading away Burnes and Woodruff, and yet, here we are.

[BadgerFan]

Remember, this was Ken Rosenthal’s reporting of the Brewers-Orioles negotiations in 2018:

 

The Manny Machado sweepstakes soon might reach a point where one team, be it the Baltimore Orioles or one of their prospective trade partners, is going to blink.

 

The Orioles want right-hander Corbin Burnes as the centerpiece in any Machado trade with the Milwaukee Brewers.

 

It would’ve been so exciting for the Brewers to acquire Machado back in 2018, but imagine if they would’ve met the Orioles reported demands and given up Burnes. Sometimes the less exciting move proves to be the right move.

 

And sometimes you give up Matt LaPorta or Lewis Brinson as the centerpiece of a trade.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Remember, this was Ken Rosenthal’s reporting of the Brewers-Orioles negotiations in 2018:

 

The Manny Machado sweepstakes soon might reach a point where one team, be it the Baltimore Orioles or one of their prospective trade partners, is going to blink.

 

The Orioles want right-hander Corbin Burnes as the centerpiece in any Machado trade with the Milwaukee Brewers.

 

It would’ve been so exciting for the Brewers to acquire Machado back in 2018, but imagine if they would’ve met the Orioles reported demands and given up Burnes. Sometimes the less exciting move proves to be the right move.

 

And sometimes you give up Matt LaPorta or Lewis Brinson as the centerpiece of a trade.

 

And sometimes Michael Brantley and Nelson Cruz are throw-ins.

[Eye Black]

And sometimes you give up Matt LaPorta or Lewis Brinson as the centerpiece of a trade.

Sure, and sometimes the player to be named later goes on to be a 5-time All Star.

[Eye Black]

And sometimes you give up Matt LaPorta or Lewis Brinson as the centerpiece of a trade.

 

And sometimes Michael Brantley and Nelson Cruz are throw-ins.

You could also argue that Mitch Haniger was essentially a bit of a throwaway in 2014 as well since Gerardo Parra was riding just an 85 OPS+ at the time of the deal and wasn’t likely to provide an impact bat.

 

Regardless, the point isn’t teams should never make trades just because some will turn out bad in the long run. It highlights the importance of understanding the talent and future projection for the players in your own system and balancing that against assessing the risk/reward of dealing them. You’ll win some and lose some (as every team does), but sometimes hanging onto a player instead of making a big splash proves to be the best thing for the organization’s future. I’ll be as excited as anyone to see the Brewers make big moves, but I also understand they aren’t going to completely mortgage the future health of the organization to do so. If they do trade from their very top tier of prospects I expect them to be for players with control beyond just the next two months.

[pacopete4]

While they are set up for a good shot if things keep going well, this hopefully won’t be their only shot with the pitchers they have. Remaining patient and giving multiple opportunities is the way to always go. If the right deal for premier talent occurs, awesome. Either way I expect Stearns to continue to find ways to create a baseball roster that can compete down the stretch.

[DuWayne Steurer]

And sometimes you give up Matt LaPorta or Lewis Brinson as the centerpiece of a trade.

 

And sometimes Michael Brantley and Nelson Cruz are throw-ins.

You could also argue that Mitch Haniger was essentially a bit of a throwaway in 2014 as well since Gerardo Parra was riding just an 85 OPS+ at the time of the deal and wasn’t likely to provide an impact bat.

 

.

 

Good call. I remember not liking letting go of Haniger right away.

 

And also, that you shouldn't *not* make trades for fear that they will maybe not work out.

 

I am not advocating not making trades. I think the point myself (and many others) are making is that teams like the Brewers *do* have a smaller margin for error. Take the Yelich contract. If Yelich is a slap hitting singles guy who hits 8 - 12 homers a year from now on, his contract is gonna hamstring the team for a good long while. For a team like the Dodgers or the Yankees, it would be NBD.

 

We just can't make big mistakes with trading away our young controllable talent time and again. Because we CAN'T afford to sign lots and lots of expensive FA's, drafting and developing young, controllable talent is the only way a team like the Brewers are going to stay competitive for multiple years in a window.

 

I don't think Stearns is "gun shy".... I think he's careful and measured because he understands that for a small market team, mistakes are magnified and he just can't afford to sweep them under the rug by signing costly vet FA's to undo bad drafts and bad signings (such as JBJ).

[PeaveyFury]

I actually hate this time of year...you hear about the Brewers inquiring about Donaldson, you hear them inquiring about Story, or other big names at the deadline, and they end up making some puddle jumper moves instead. Mostly because I assume they consider the price "cost prohibitive". Listen, in a year like this when you have the pitching you have, and the window you have, nothing should be too prohibitive. It's not like you'll have to give up one of the 3 pitchers, or any other untouchables in a deal. It just comes down to them being gun shy.

 

…. Or perhaps the demands were truly horrible for the Brewers? What if the Rockies asked for Hader in return for Story? Brewers inquire, Rockies put out a huge demand, no deal is made. I’d bet that’s how 80% of phone calls go this week. Not ‘gun shy’ at all.

 

But I already said it's not like they will have to give up one of the 3 pitchers(Woody, Burnes, Peralta) or any other untouchables in the deal(Hader is in this category). But you also bring up another point..I can totally see Stearns and co doing this...they call the Rockies about Story, Rockies say "it will take Hader". Brewers say "okay thank you" and move on, rather then even engaging them in real negotiations to see if they can come to some sort of an agreement on terms both can agree with. You can't just hang up and figure the cost is too expensive, without even trying to negotiate. That's being gun shy. Again, I can totally see Stearns and co doing this in some situations.

 

As this is literally your own conjecture based on a scenario you invented, I don’t think you can ‘see’ anyone doing anything.

[rickh150]

We simply don’t know what Stearns is doing now. Everything is conjecture, including our Stearns boys who say he will not leave any rock unturned. Most Stearns deadlines are underwhelming yet helpful. He hasn’t been trading top regarded prospects and isn’t getting flashy, expensive players. The Brewers are often reported “in” on several big names, for whatever that is worth or whatever that means. I hear what you are saying Brewcrewin7…. It’s almost better to not be following the rumors and be left feeling disappointed.

 

Without the waiver wire to fall back on, GMs do have to get a lot of work to get done in the next couple of days, though. Teams with playoff hopes like the Brewers should feel the pressure to get something done.

[tigerbrew]

Twins get Cain

Brewers get Donaldson + $10M

[SandyTolan]

Brewcrewin07 said:

I actually hate this time of year...you hear about the Brewers inquiring about Donaldson, you hear them inquiring about Story, or other big names at the deadline, and they end up making some puddle jumper moves instead. Mostly because I assume they consider the price "cost prohibitive". Listen, in a year like this when you have the pitching you have, and the window you have, nothing should be too prohibitive. It's not like you'll have to give up one of the 3 pitchers, or any other untouchables in a deal. It just comes down to them being gun shy.

 

 

But going all in on a big-name player isn't always the best move. Think about what they got out of Jordan Lyles and Drew Pomeranz, who flew well under the radar. It didn't really cost the team much and they were huge upgrades.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I actually hate this time of year...you hear about the Brewers inquiring about Donaldson, you hear them inquiring about Story, or other big names at the deadline, and they end up making some puddle jumper moves instead. Mostly because I assume they consider the price "cost prohibitive". Listen, in a year like this when you have the pitching you have, and the window you have, nothing should be too prohibitive. It's not like you'll have to give up one of the 3 pitchers, or any other untouchables in a deal. It just comes down to them being gun shy.

 

…. Or perhaps the demands were truly horrible for the Brewers? What if the Rockies asked for Hader in return for Story? Brewers inquire, Rockies put out a huge demand, no deal is made. I’d bet that’s how 80% of phone calls go this week. Not ‘gun shy’ at all.

 

But I already said it's not like they will have to give up one of the 3 pitchers(Woody, Burnes, Peralta) or any other untouchables in the deal(Hader is in this category). But you also bring up another point..I can totally see Stearns and co doing this...they call the Rockies about Story, Rockies say "it will take Hader". Brewers say "okay thank you" and move on, rather then even engaging them in real negotiations to see if they can come to some sort of an agreement on terms both can agree with. You can't just hang up and figure the cost is too expensive, without even trying to negotiate. That's being gun shy. Again, I can totally see Stearns and co doing this in some situations.

 

So you have completely fabricated a scenario in your head, complete with dialogue, simply to get mad at the team for something you think might be happening? Whoa Nelly, that's a new one!

[StearnsFTW]

This thread is hilarious.

[wildcat83]

This thread is hilarious.

 

Between this one and the IGT’s mocking La Russa, it’s been a really solid week.

[IIAY]

 

And sometimes you give up Matt LaPorta or Lewis Brinson as the centerpiece of a trade.

 

And sometimes Michael Brantley and Nelson Cruz are throw-ins.

 

I would argue that Michael Brantley was not a throw-in. It was clear that there were going to be 2 highly thought of prospects sent to Cleveland in the Sabathia deal (LaPorta and the PTBNL). The PTBNL list included Brantley, Lucroy, and Taylor Green (who was one of our highest ranked prospects at the time). If we would have missed the playoffs, my understanding is that they would have sent Green to Cleveland (the Brewers' choice). Because we won the Wild Card, the Indians got to pick and chose Brantley.

[brooks_quichenick]

Is Hosmer of any interest at all? He's not great, but he's not an albatross and the Padres would probably basically give him away. Gets on base okay and you might see some improvement in the power numbers going from San Diego to Milwaukee.

 

He's overpaid at 3/39 for 3 more seasons, so you'd need San Diego to eat a chunk or take a guy like JBJ back, I'd think.

 

I really don't want Hosmer, as we already have a high-paid lefty who beats the ball into the ground a lot, but he apparently has a 10-team no trade clause that includes the Brewers anyways:

 

 

"Eric Hosmer has a limited, 10-team no-trade clause for 2021. The teams he can block, per source: BAL, CLE, DET, MIL, OAK, PIT, SF, SEA, STL, TOR."

[Dresden files]

Question for everyone out there. Is it worth giving up your top prospect to win a World Series? Lets say in 2018 we traded Burnes for Machado but won it all would people still be upset.

 

Like if Giannis gets hurt and we miss the playoffs the next 3 years in hoops and a top guy that turns out to be an alstar is drafted with our picks would people be upset that we went all in and won?

 

Nothing is for sure but if we traded away our top guys for Max and story type players and they put us over the top I wouldnt be upset at all seeing a Alstar on another team for the next 8 years that could have been on ours if we were just fine making the playoffs every other year.

 

How Happy i was seeing CC carry us to the playoffs was worth way more to me then seeing Brantley be a really good player for the Indians.

[PDCBalla]

Yes. Give up Yelich, Woodruff, Burnes all of them if it means you win a title.

[pacopete4]

Question for everyone out there. Is it worth giving up your top prospect to win a World Series? Lets say in 2018 we traded Burnes for Machado but won it all would people still be upset.

 

Like if Giannis gets hurt and we miss the playoffs the next 3 years in hoops and a top guy that turns out to be an alstar is drafted with our picks would people be upset that we went all in and won?

 

Nothing is for sure but if we traded away our top guys for Max and story type players and they put us over the top I wouldnt be upset at all seeing a Alstar on another team for the next 8 years that could have been on ours if we were just fine making the playoffs every other year.

 

How Happy i was seeing CC carry us to the playoffs was worth way more to me then seeing Brantley be a really good player for the Indians.

 

The franchise is in a lot different spot than it was in 2008. Maybe trading for CC gets you to one post season but having Brantley for multiple years gives you multiple chances of getting to the post season. Too many what if’s when you go down these roads. Stearns will do his best to get this team as good as he can but I think it will be without sacrificing years to come.

[brewerfan82]

I would definitely trade anything for a World Series title. That said, even if we traded for Scherzer, Donaldson, Freeman, and Kimbrel we'd still have like an 80% chance of NOT winning the World Series. There's just no way to guarantee a championship, but you are pretty much guaranteeing you won't be competitive again for several years after all those trades (noting it wouldn't even be possible to make those trades in the first place).

[igor67]

I reject the premise of the question. Regardless of how quantitative friendly folks are a trade is all about improving CHANCES, there are no guarantees and framing the question in that way isn't going to lead to a better understanding.

[KeithStone53151]

Twins get Cain

Brewers get Donaldson + $10M

 

I feel like this is a huge win, I'm not sure why the Twins would do this unless buxton is jettisoned.

[wibadgers23]

Scherzer seems destined to be a Dodger or Padre. Both have loaded farm systems to trade from and he supposedly prefers the West Coast. He might just veto a trade anywhere else.