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DHonks

Given Woodruff started today, Peralta and Burnes are likely throwing in the All-star game, how do we think the Brewers will line things up? Unfortunately I think the game might not set us up strongest against the Reds

 

Friday: ? Lauer, Anderson, or Houser

Saturday: Woodruff

Sunday: Burnes

Tuesday: Peralta

Wednesday: ??

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I’ll go with….

Fri. Burnes

Sat. Leuer/Houser

Sun. Woodruff

 

Tues. Peralta

Wed. Anderson/Houser

 

Fri. Burnes

Sat. Leuer/Houser

Sun. Woodruff

 

I never liked the idea of the big three throwing together only to be followed by the not big three. With all the off days in July, I think the six man rotation will be somewhat limited and guys can be skipped a time in the rotation or be piggy backed. Pitching two of them to the Reds sounds good.

 

Also, Freddy and Houser have pitched 98 and 86 innings, respectively. Brewers brass might be looking for ways to limit innings, especially Peralta at age 25. Actually, that might be an issue for the entire staff. Woodruff (113) and Burnes (87) might be flirting with an innings ceiling at season’s end too.

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I don’t even want to begin to think about innings limits in a pennant race. Boy could that affect things big time.
"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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The 6 man rotation will take care of the inning load somewhat. I’m fine with burly, 28 yr old Woodruff throwing 200 plus innings….. not really ok with anyone else getting close. With 2020 limiting innings and a relatively young rotation, the six man rotation could be equally about better production now and limiting innings later in 2021 for a young staff.

 

Another back end starter at the decline might allow Houser/Leuer to pitch better matchups in innings 4-6.

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The whole innings thing is overrated and outdated. Outside of a 20 year old or a guy coming off tommy john it really isn't a really concern any more. The Brewers might go with the 6 man rotation to hopefully keep guys a bit more fresh, but we are trying to win a division. These guys are going to pitch...pretty sure they would rather go down in September on a tired Peralta/Woodruff/Burnes versus losing with Lauer taking the mound.

 

As for not having all three pitch in a row...not sure why that matters. Last I checked all wins count that same. I will take the extra start one of those guys might make versus giving it to Houser/Lauer just to separate the aces.

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With the off days the next two Mondays and next Thursday, I would just go with Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta (in some order) against the Reds unless they want to avoid having Peralta face the Reds for a fifth time. After losing 6 of the last 7 against the Reds I would use my best pitchers in those games and use Houser against KC. I would also be skipping a start for one of the other two (probably Lauer) and have him available for a couple of innings of long relief if needed.

 

If they would stick with a 6 man rotation through those off days, the pitchers would be getting 6 or 7 days off, and and I think that does more harm than good if the goal is to keep pitchers on some kind of routine.

 

As for Peralta or Burnes pitching in the All Star Game, starting pitchers usually have a throwing session in between starts anyway, so an inning in the All Star Game can take the place of that. They shouldn’t need another full 4 or 5 days of rest before pitching again.

Note: If I raise something as a POSSIBILITY that does not mean that I EXPECT it to happen.
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I don’t even want to begin to think about innings limits in a pennant race. Boy could that affect things big time.

 

While I generally agree, my primary concern is giving these guys enough rest or potentially extra rest if possible to keep them as fresh as possible in September and hopefully beyond. If the rest is ample, I don't care if these guys go 250 innings if they pitch to the world series. For me the primary thing is getting full rest and the occasional extra day or two when possible. I would also probably stop doing the extra rest thing starting in late August if a team closes in on us. If we're 8-10 game lead...yeah go ahead and skip a start or go 6 man rotation.

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This series is kinda big. Peralta/Burnes will probably only pitch an inning at most in the allstar game. That's not overly relevant and I would think either guy could be available on Saturday to pitch...maybe even Friday. I think considering the gravity of the series, you go best here. Woodruff Friday, Burnes/Peralta Saturday/Sunday in some order. You can then also easily line up all 3 guys to pitch in the big White Sox series with 2 extra days of rest each considering Monday and Thursday off days. Then you just hope Houser/Lauer/Anderson can have successful outings in the supposedly easier 2 games against the Royals in between.
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I think they just go with what's working, pitch counts under 100 and 6 man rotation. In the long run, I don't know if it matters too much how they lineup after the break. Everyone is going to get 11-12 more starts, barring injury. Woodruff is the only one averaging over 6 innings per start. He could be over 180 innings at the current pace. His previous high was 158 innings 5 years ago. Burnes and Peralta end up in the 150-160 range, when their previous highs were in the 140's a few years ago. Lately Lauer is looking like the 4th best pitcher, and there probably isn't much concern about his innings. The biggest question is how effective Anderson and Houser will be down the stretch.
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I don’t even want to begin to think about innings limits in a pennant race. Boy could that affect things big time.

 

While I generally agree, my primary concern is giving these guys enough rest or potentially extra rest if possible to keep them as fresh as possible in September and hopefully beyond. If the rest is ample, I don't care if these guys go 250 innings if they pitch to the world series. For me the primary thing is getting full rest and the occasional extra day or two when possible. I would also probably stop doing the extra rest thing starting in late August if a team closes in on us. If we're 8-10 game lead...yeah go ahead and skip a start or go 6 man rotation.

 

Yep. I don't really think it's an injury concern to make a large jump in innings, it's a fatigue concern (which then turns into an injury concern). The combination of shorter starts and longer rest between starts should make it easier to have a large jump in innings over the course of the year. I hope the Reds play well enough to put a little pressure on us in September so that these guys can get a playoff type atmosphere before the playoffs begin. I don't think it's best to cruise into the playoffs without being tested/pressured. At the same time, I don't want to overwork everybody and burn them out by Sept/Oct either. It's a tricky balance.

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When I started this post, I was assuming Woodruff on Saturday was a lock for the 5-days rest. I’m guessing Peralta and Burnes go Sunday and Tuesday, unless someone doesn’t throw in the AS game
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Based on some comments I've read, I think there is a chance they just keep them in the same order as before, pending the all star game. It sounds like they may not skip anyone when there are days off. That could mean Anderson, Houser, Lauer starting the first 3 games.
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Based on some comments I've read, I think there is a chance they just keep them in the same order as before, pending the all star game. It sounds like they may not skip anyone when there are days off. That could mean Anderson, Houser, Lauer starting the first 3 games.

 

If Counsell does that, he should be fired on the spot.

 

Burnes pitched last Wednesday and will have 5 days before he maybe pitches one inning in the All Star Game. Then he wouldn’t be pitching again until next Tuesday against the Royals, and Woodruff wouldn’t be starting until Friday against the White Sox, 12 days after his start on Sunday. There’s a fine line between rest and rust, but I think this would be much closer to the latter.

 

I’m going to be irked if Counsell doesn’t get at least Woodruff and Burnes (who the Reds haven’t seen yet this year) starts this weekend. The Brewers have enough trouble with the Reds starting pitchers as it is without giving them even more advantages by putting their second tier starters against them when it isn’t necessary. If the Brewers lose 6 games in a row and 9 out of 10 to the Reds, so be it. But don’t do it by only using your top 3 starters in 3 of the 10 games.

 

Of course, this is all moot if the Brewers offense can’t figure out how to score more than a run or two per game.

Note: If I raise something as a POSSIBILITY that does not mean that I EXPECT it to happen.
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Based on some comments I've read, I think there is a chance they just keep them in the same order as before, pending the all star game. It sounds like they may not skip anyone when there are days off. That could mean Anderson, Houser, Lauer starting the first 3 games.

 

If Counsell does that, he should be fired on the spot.

 

Burnes pitched last Wednesday and will have 5 days before he maybe pitches one inning in the All Star Game. Then he wouldn’t be pitching again until next Tuesday against the Royals, and Woodruff wouldn’t be starting until Friday against the White Sox, 12 days after his start on Sunday. There’s a fine line between rest and rust, but I think this would be much closer to the latter.

 

I’m going to be irked if Counsell doesn’t get at least Woodruff and Burnes (who the Reds haven’t seen yet this year) starts this weekend. The Brewers have enough trouble with the Reds starting pitchers as it is without giving them even more advantages by putting their second tier starters against them when it isn’t necessary. If the Brewers lose 6 games in a row and 9 out of 10 to the Reds, so be it. But don’t do it by only using your top 3 starters in 3 of the 10 games.

 

Of course, this is all moot if the Brewers offense can’t figure out how to score more than a run or two per game.

 

 

Maybe that's part of the Brewers' plan in case they play the Reds in the post-season. (I'm half-joking, half-serious.)

 

I'm just going with the flow and trying to enjoy the fact that we have baseball this season and the Crew is, overall, playing pretty good. We all know that there are holes here and there, but that's also part of the ebb and flow of a season. Even if the Reds were to sweep us this coming weekend, we'd still be in first place. Obviously, I would rather they have not lost 3 of 4 this past weekend, and I don't want them to lose any this coming weekend, but sometimes that stuff just . . . happens.

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Of course losses and losing streaks and stretches happen. But, they should happen while giving it your best shot with your best players as long as they aren’t being overused.

 

IMHO, giving your best starting pitchers almost two weeks in between starts (assuming they are healthy) while you’re playing your closest competitor for the division lead would be inexcusable. If Counsell thinks the pitchers who attended the ASG festivities need a few days to wind down from that experience, and thinks Anderson should start on Friday, OK (even though I won’t like it). And if he thinks Peralta could use a few extra days and doesn’t need to face the Reds for the fifth time this year, that’s OK too. But, as long as they are healthy, I can’t see any good reason not to start Woodruff and Burnes over the weekend.

Note: If I raise something as a POSSIBILITY that does not mean that I EXPECT it to happen.
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I also see that the Mets have announced Stroman as their starter tomorrow, meaning that deGrom likely won’t be facing the Reds next week.
Note: If I raise something as a POSSIBILITY that does not mean that I EXPECT it to happen.
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Does it seem odd to anyone else that the Brewers have a game in less than 10 hours, and they still haven't announced who is starting it, let alone a rotation for the weekend?

Yes, I’m surprised they still haven’t set the rotation. I assume it’ll be Woodruff on Saturday, but beyond that it’s anybody’s guess.

Not just “at Night” anymore.
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