2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10

[yfinn6]

When can we expect some of these guys to sign? In previous, non-Covid years, it seems like some guys would be signed and in the minors for the last two months of the season. With the later draft, can we expect some of these guys to play the last month of the season?

[Jastro]

When can we expect some of these guys to sign? In previous, non-Covid years, it seems like some guys would be signed and in the minors for the last two months of the season. With the later draft, can we expect some of these guys to play the last month of the season?

 

Well according to this CBS article, the deadline to sign draftees is August 1st. So they potentially could get a month of experience under their belts, I would assume.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-draft-2021-why-most-first-round-picks-will-sign-and-other-signability-questions-answered/

[Roderick]

Throwing 93 mph isn’t all that slow for a lefty. Plus maybe they hope they’re in the pitching lab they can on earth more velocity and tighten up that slider. Then again we haven’t had success with tall high picks like Thomas and Fredrickson.

 

Yep- as weird as it sounds, with the lab stuff now, velocity IS teachable. It's the exact opposite of 10 years ago, when you drafted hard throwers and prayed that you could teach them control. In this case, I assume his control rating was highly desired by the team and there's an assumption that they may be able to add a few MPH, which seems a reasonable developmental plan.

 

 

I've got to think they drafted him thinking they will add speed to his fastball, so he is sitting 94-95 and can get to 96-97 - while still keeping his control. See this story (probably a video online too).

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/baseball-pitchers-velocity-increase/

 

One Apec client, White Sox starter Michael Kopech, has been clocked at 105 mph. "He improved six miles an hour in one offseason," said Apec founder Bobby Stroupe.

 

"So, he was already throwing mid-to-upper 90s, works out here for an offseason, and is touching 105?" asked Dokoupil.

 

"Right!"

[PeaveyFury]

Yeah, I saw that piece on CBS as well. Really interesting stuff.

[Jopal78]

Keith Law with a lukewarm take on the Brewers draft:

 

The Brewers went for value at pick 15, taking Boston College centerfielder Sal Frelick (1), a high-contact hitter with strength to drive the ball but no real power, hitting just three homers in ACC play this spring. He’s a plus defender in center who has a short left-handed stroke and plus speed, with a good leadoff profile. He may have been a victim of some primacy bias — he came out hot, hitting 3 homers before conference play began, and the possibility that he’d added a grade or more of power changed the industry view of him. When he settled in as a very good player without power, it seemed like a letdown.

 

Wright State infielder Tyler Black (1A) was, like Frelick, one of the best pure bats in the draft class this year, showing well in non-conference games early this season against strong clubs like Vanderbilt and Alabama, and went 5 for 9 with a homer in the regional against Tennessee and Duke. The first Canadian-born player drafted this year, Black has great plate discipline and scouts love how hard and intelligent his play is. He’s played all over the infield but profiles best at second or possibly third.

 

TCU lefty Russell Smith (2) is a giant at 6-9, and despite an awkward-looking delivery, he throws a lot of strikes, walking 6 percent of batters this year. He pitches backwards, using his mid-80s changeup and low-80s slider both more than he uses his 91-94 mph fastball, but nothing here is plus. His size gives him natural deception and his command and control help his stuff play up. I don’t think there’s more than a back-end starter here, though.

 

Alex Binelas (3) came into the year as a possible late first-rounder but got off to a miserable start, and as a bat-first — maybe a bat-only — prospect, it doomed his chances to go that high. He ended up with 19 homers and a .621 slugging percentage, but hit just .256 with 21 walks and 51 punchouts. The power is at least a 70, and while this might be a round high for someone with his profile, lacking any position at the moment, there’s regular upside too.

 

Right-hander Logan Henderson (4) led JUCO pitchers in strikeouts this year, but he’s under 6′ with a ton of effort in his delivery, including some real head violence at release, a straight reliever look even though he has the three pitches to try to start. Duke shortstop Ethan Murray (5) feels like a player the model liked more than scouts would; he had a solid OBP this year but he has no power, a 45 hit tool at best, and struck out more than he walked.

 

South Carolina first baseman Wes Clarke (10) has huge power but below-average bat speed and no position. He’s a poor man’s Daniel Vogelbach. The Brewers did take SoCal high school infielder Roc Riggio (11) and could try to sign him with money left over from their bonus pool, since they didn’t take anyone who seems like he’ll require over slot before that. Riggio’s a bat-first high school position player, the kind of kid who often benefits from college because teams can better track and measure his performance while seeing how it holds up against better competition. He might end up in left field, lacking the speed for the middle, and it’ll remain to be seen if he can continue to show power as a 5-9 hitter when using the wood bat. He’d be a nice bow on the draft for Milwaukee.

[Jopal78]

Keith Law with a lukewarm take on the Brewers draft:

 

The Brewers went for value at pick 15, taking Boston College centerfielder Sal Frelick (1), a high-contact hitter with strength to drive the ball but no real power, hitting just three homers in ACC play this spring. He’s a plus defender in center who has a short left-handed stroke and plus speed, with a good leadoff profile. He may have been a victim of some primacy bias — he came out hot, hitting 3 homers before conference play began, and the possibility that he’d added a grade or more of power changed the industry view of him. When he settled in as a very good player without power, it seemed like a letdown.

 

Wright State infielder Tyler Black (1A) was, like Frelick, one of the best pure bats in the draft class this year, showing well in non-conference games early this season against strong clubs like Vanderbilt and Alabama, and went 5 for 9 with a homer in the regional against Tennessee and Duke. The first Canadian-born player drafted this year, Black has great plate discipline and scouts love how hard and intelligent his play is. He’s played all over the infield but profiles best at second or possibly third.

 

TCU lefty Russell Smith (2) is a giant at 6-9, and despite an awkward-looking delivery, he throws a lot of strikes, walking 6 percent of batters this year. He pitches backwards, using his mid-80s changeup and low-80s slider both more than he uses his 91-94 mph fastball, but nothing here is plus. His size gives him natural deception and his command and control help his stuff play up. I don’t think there’s more than a back-end starter here, though.

 

Alex Binelas (3) came into the year as a possible late first-rounder but got off to a miserable start, and as a bat-first — maybe a bat-only — prospect, it doomed his chances to go that high. He ended up with 19 homers and a .621 slugging percentage, but hit just .256 with 21 walks and 51 punchouts. The power is at least a 70, and while this might be a round high for someone with his profile, lacking any position at the moment, there’s regular upside too.

 

Right-hander Logan Henderson (4) led JUCO pitchers in strikeouts this year, but he’s under 6′ with a ton of effort in his delivery, including some real head violence at release, a straight reliever look even though he has the three pitches to try to start. Duke shortstop Ethan Murray (5) feels like a player the model liked more than scouts would; he had a solid OBP this year but he has no power, a 45 hit tool at best, and struck out more than he walked.

 

South Carolina first baseman Wes Clarke (10) has huge power but below-average bat speed and no position. He’s a poor man’s Daniel Vogelbach. The Brewers did take SoCal high school infielder Roc Riggio (11) and could try to sign him with money left over from their bonus pool, since they didn’t take anyone who seems like he’ll require over slot before that. Riggio’s a bat-first high school position player, the kind of kid who often benefits from college because teams can better track and measure his performance while seeing how it holds up against better competition. He might end up in left field, lacking the speed for the middle, and it’ll remain to be seen if he can continue to show power as a 5-9 hitter when using the wood bat. He’d be a nice bow on the draft for Milwaukee.

[Eye Black]

I wasn’t overly jazzed about the Frelick selection for a handful of reasons (I thought McLain was the best college hitter available at #15), but I did watch his high school football highlights and one thing is certain… he’s an incredible athlete. I saw he mentioned this past year was the first time in his career he’d played baseball during the fall. Given his athleticism and speed I do think it’s possible he could be end up being a solid top of the order “spark plug” type player.

[clancyphile]

Has there been any word on when the Brewers will get their picks signed?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Has there been any word on when the Brewers will get their picks signed?

 

If there was any news, I would imagine it would be in this thread.

[Austin Tatious]

Thanks for sharing, Jopal. I think lukewarm is very fair. As much as I liked some of our recent drafts (after detesting them for about a decade), this draft was not awe-inspiring. Hopefully it will surprise to the upside. I would say overall I am disappointed but maybe a few guys succeed.

[narwhalattack]

Outside of Watson and maybe Madden there weren’t many guys that I heavily preferred over Frelick, and I’m not finding Frelick awe-inspiring either. IMO this year’s draft felt pretty top-heavy.

[sveumrules]

Sal getting a few paragraphs in the FanGraphs Sunday Notes column...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-cade-cavalli-envisions-more-lorenzens-and-ohtanis/

[Mass Haas]

Thread on 7th round pick Tristan Peters

[markedman5]

Not sure where to put this but 3 early picks now signed

 

[JDBrewCrew]

Jim Callis

@jimcallisMLB

3rd-rder Alex Binelas signs w/

@Brewers for $700k (pick 86 value = $699,700). Louisville 1B/3B, some of best college LH power in

@MLBDraft, recovered from slow start to hit 19 HR, put on BP show at Draft Combine.

[JDBrewCrew]

Jim Callis

@jimcallisMLB

·2m

Supplemental 1st-rder Tyler Black signs w/@Brewers for $2,202,200 (full pick 33 value). Wright State 2B, highest-drafted position player in school history, one of best college hitters in

@MLBDraft. Batted .383/.496/.683 w/13 HR & 11 SB this spring.

[markedman5]

1st-rder Sal Frelick signs w/@Brewers for $4 million (pick 15 value = $3,885,800). Boston College OF, one of top hitters in @MLBDraft class, plus-plus speed & quality CF too. Batted .359/.443/.559 w/13 SB this spring, ACC defensive player of the year.

 

[jonescm128]

I'm a bit surprised that our first three picks (all college bats) all signed for over slot value. I figured they would keep them under slot value to put more money to Riggio. Not saying they still can't do that but a bit surprised at the first three going over slot.

[PeaveyFury]

A little surprised that Frelick was slightly over slot.

[sveumrules]

I'm a bit surprised that our first three picks (all college bats) all signed for over slot value. I figured they would keep them under slot value to put more money to Riggio. Not saying they still can't do that but a bit surprised at the first three going over slot.

 

Black signed for exactly slot, Binelas signed for $300 over slot, Frelick was $114,200 over slot.

 

That $114,500 dollars represents about 1.1% of the Brewers $10,063,400 total bonus pool.

 

Shouldn't hinder their ability to sign anyone else later, especially since all these figures are more or less ball parked & agreed upon before the picks are made.

[balsamlaker]

With the 5% over top allotment that the Brewers have used in the past, they could still offer one of the day three picks over 1/2 million without any other players taking a discount. R. Smith seems like the most likely to have agreed to a discount as he is basically a college senior, as he turns 23 in a couple of months. It also wouldn't be a surprise to see some minimal savings with some of the other day two selections.

[patrickgpe]

A little surprised that Frelick was slightly over slot.

me too, I think Mitchell is a decent comparison since he signed for slot, and was a college JR who fell in the draft. so its a little bit of a surprise.

[umphrey]

I generally like the strategy of going at slot or slightly over slot for 1st round picks in most cases, so I’m happy about that I guess. I did not see Frelick as an above slot guy though.

 

I feel like we haven’t had success with an under slot high pick since I’ve been paying attention.

[brewmann04]

Hopefully we see some late round surprises.

[JDBrewCrew]

Brewers Player Development

@BrewersPD

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We've signed Wes to a minor league contract!

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