2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10

[sveumrules]

In the FanGraphs day one recap they had Sal as a 45+ FV, which probably slots him in at #3 behind Ashby (50 FV) & Mitchell (45+ FV) & ahead of the 45 FV guys (Quero, Small, Turang, Olson, Chourio, Feliciano, Uribe & Howell) in the 4-11 spots.

 

They had Black as a 40+ FV, which would put him somewhere in a group of ten guys (Warren, Gray, Hedbert, Hamilton, Zamora, Kelly, Lutz, Lazar & Garcia) between 12-21.

[ebmackenzie]

Throwing 93 mph isn’t all that slow for a lefty. Plus maybe they hope they’re in the pitching lab they can on earth more velocity and tighten up that slider. Then again we haven’t had success with tall high picks like Thomas and Fredrickson.

 

Frederickson was 8 years before Stearns and pitching labs and the like. This new regime deserves the benefit of the doubt with waivers, drafting, developing, and tall lefties.

[Austin Tatious]

This draft seems like a mixed bag. Frelick seems like a good value pick. We will see on Black. After that, maybe we get a bullpen arm? No one really jumps out in terms of upside.

 

I am sure if you look at the draft where we took Burnes, there were alot of posters touting that pick in the aftermath of that draft.

 

At least we stopped wasting time on the Caden Lemons, Nash Walters profile type guys.

[sveumrules]

I wonder if peak Adam Eaton isn’t a terrible comp for what you hope Sal Frelick becomes?

 

Eaton would be a great outcome. Another guy that despite below average power (82 ISO+), still managed an above average batting line (116 wRC+) on the strength of a great approach (110 BB%+ vs 84 K%+) and propensity for getting hits (112 AVG+). Throw in plus baserunning / fielding & Eaton tallied 18 WAR during his team control seasons.

[JackNicholson1974]

Caden Lemons…why….

[PeaveyFury]

I am sure if you look at the draft where we took Burnes, there were alot of posters touting that pick in the aftermath of that draft.

 

But this draft is still in progress.... we haven't even made it to the aftermath yet to know who will be touting what.

[reillymcshane]

Caden Lemons…why….

I'm still wondering about that pick as well.

[BallFour]

I am sure it has been brought up but have to think the hamate bone injury to Binelas had to somewhat contribute to his struggles to start the year. Feel like he could be a steal when we look back in a couple years.

[DHonks]

Throwing 93 mph isn’t all that slow for a lefty. Plus maybe they hope they’re in the pitching lab they can on earth more velocity and tighten up that slider. Then again we haven’t had success with tall high picks like Thomas and Fredrickson.

 

Frederickson was 8 years before Stearns and pitching labs and the like. This new regime deserves the benefit of the doubt with waivers, drafting, developing, and tall lefties.

 

Yes very true…but just saying our history wi5 tall picks has me a little anxious. The last successful tall pitcher was probably D’Amico, but that’s also because we haven’t drafted all that many

[DR28]

Zavier Warren is a good example of why I only have 1 of these guys sniffing the top 10. He was our 3rd round pick last year and hitting .266/.405/.578 so how do you put someone like Binelas ahead of him?

Recency bias. It's rampant in every post-draft poll. Their 2nd round pick from last year is in the top-10 but the 2nd round picks from 3-4 years ago are nowhere to be found. Same with their 5th round picks.

I really like what the Indians did with their first 3 picks, Gavin Williams, Doug Nikhazy and Tommy Mace... 3 dudes that know how to pitch.

[Austin Tatious]

Throwing 93 mph isn’t all that slow for a lefty. Plus maybe they hope they’re in the pitching lab they can on earth more velocity and tighten up that slider. Then again we haven’t had success with tall high picks like Thomas and Fredrickson.

 

Yep- as weird as it sounds, with the lab stuff now, velocity IS teachable. It's the exact opposite of 10 years ago, when you drafted hard throwers and prayed that you could teach them control. In this case, I assume his control rating was highly desired by the team and there's an assumption that they may be able to add a few MPH, which seems a reasonable developmental plan.

Plus, at 6'9" he probably has long arms and may have a release point closer to the plate than most pitchers (like Peralta) making his pitches seem 2-3mph faster than they clock.

 

One of the exGM’s on the MLB network mentioned the other day that his front office had studied really tall pitchers and their study showed that really tall pitchers have greater difficulty repeating their delivery. Doesn’t mean it’s always true but an interesting data point.

[Smichaelis9]

 

Yep- as weird as it sounds, with the lab stuff now, velocity IS teachable. It's the exact opposite of 10 years ago, when you drafted hard throwers and prayed that you could teach them control. In this case, I assume his control rating was highly desired by the team and there's an assumption that they may be able to add a few MPH, which seems a reasonable developmental plan.

Plus, at 6'9" he probably has long arms and may have a release point closer to the plate than most pitchers (like Peralta) making his pitches seem 2-3mph faster than they clock.

 

One of the exGM’s on the MLB network mentioned the other day that his front office had studied really tall pitchers and their study showed that really tall pitchers have greater difficulty repeating their delivery. Doesn’t mean it’s always true but an interesting data point.

As a D3 pitching coach with a 6’9 lefty in the bullpen, I can confirm that it’s very hard for them to repeat their mechanics. However, considering Smith’s strike throwing prowess, I’d say he likely is doing a really good job of it. At first look, he doesn’t appear to stride that far out (not surprising at his size), so I’d imagine his extension isn’t anything too crazy. Even with his height. But a good changeup from that type of arm angle is really tough on hitters. If he can fine tune a breaking ball, and maintain the command into pro ball, there could be a really interesting starting pitcher in there.

[DR28]

Todd Johnson said Binelas will be given every chance to play 3B when he's in our system.

[Austin Tatious]

As a D3 pitching coach with a 6’9 lefty in the bullpen, I can confirm that it’s very hard for them to repeat their mechanics. However, considering Smith’s strike throwing prowess, I’d say he likely is doing a really good job of it. At first look, he doesn’t appear to stride that far out (not surprising at his size), so I’d imagine his extension isn’t anything too crazy. Even with his height. But a good changeup from that type of arm angle is really tough on hitters. If he can fine tune a breaking ball, and maintain the command into pro ball, there could be a really interesting starting pitcher in there.

 

Great post. Appreciate the insight. I would love to see this guy stay as a starter. If worst case he is a reliever, that is fine. They have value.

[Eye Black]

Reminder that today’s day three (rounds 11-20) draft picks will be discussed in this thread: Link

[Madhawk23]

I am sure it has been brought up but have to think the hamate bone injury to Binelas had to somewhat contribute to his struggles to start the year. Feel like he could be a steal when we look back in a couple years.

 

I'm right with you on this. Really excited that we were able to get Binelas in the 3rd round! I know there are some questions about what position he can play at the pro level, and some concerns about his very slow start this year. But, it appears as if he was coming off of that injury and needed some time to get fully healthy and back to feeling good at the plate again. Looks like he hit over .300 after that first month or so of the season and still hit 19 bombs, playing against some of the best competition in college baseball this year. I know there is some swing/miss in his game, but I'm excited to see if the power potential plays out with him. And, if he does have to move to 1B - I'm not sure if that's the worst thing in the world for us, as we have a glaring organizational hole at that position as well.

[narwhalattack]

I am sure it has been brought up but have to think the hamate bone injury to Binelas had to somewhat contribute to his struggles to start the year. Feel like he could be a steal when we look back in a couple years.

 

I'm right with you on this. Really excited that we were able to get Binelas in the 3rd round! I know there are some questions about what position he can play at the pro level, and some concerns about his very slow start this year. But, it appears as if he was coming off of that injury and needed some time to get fully healthy and back to feeling good at the plate again. Looks like he hit over .300 after that first month or so of the season and still hit 19 bombs, playing against some of the best competition in college baseball this year. I know there is some swing/miss in his game, but I'm excited to see if the power potential plays out with him. And, if he does have to move to 1B - I'm not sure if that's the worst thing in the world for us, as we have a glaring organizational hole at that position as well.

 

Hell, even if he turns out to be a .240 hitter, if he could hit 25+ HRs and can stick at either corner IF positions that would be a HUGE boon for us.

[Madhawk23]

I am sure it has been brought up but have to think the hamate bone injury to Binelas had to somewhat contribute to his struggles to start the year. Feel like he could be a steal when we look back in a couple years.

 

I'm right with you on this. Really excited that we were able to get Binelas in the 3rd round! I know there are some questions about what position he can play at the pro level, and some concerns about his very slow start this year. But, it appears as if he was coming off of that injury and needed some time to get fully healthy and back to feeling good at the plate again. Looks like he hit over .300 after that first month or so of the season and still hit 19 bombs, playing against some of the best competition in college baseball this year. I know there is some swing/miss in his game, but I'm excited to see if the power potential plays out with him. And, if he does have to move to 1B - I'm not sure if that's the worst thing in the world for us, as we have a glaring organizational hole at that position as well.

 

Hell, even if he turns out to be a .240 hitter, if he could hit 25+ HRs and can stick at either corner IF positions that would be a HUGE boon for us.

 

Exactly! And, wasn't it reported by at least a couple of people that he had one of the more impressive hitting displays at that MLB Draft Combine that they held at some point within the past 2-3 weeks? All of these things really excite me about that pick. Throw in the fact that he is a hometown kid, and I just have a good feeling that he's going to become at worst a real solid player for us in a few years.

[homer]

Not sure if this is mentioned earlier, but I wonder if the Brewers are focused on guys that can hit the ball to all fields. I don't even know if that's the case with the first two picks but with all the shifting it might be an advantage to have a lot of spray hitters.

[igor67]

I am kind of excited about the Smith pick, I think that combo of height and control is so unusual there is more projection there than one might otherwise assume based on past experience.

[Jenkins5]

Not important but interesting…. Sam Frelick’s younger Brother was the Northeastern Husky baseball player Dave Portnoy was talking when he first mentioned he/Barstool Sports had sponsored a girl volleyball player from Jacksonville St. & a baseball player from Northeastern. His sister is also on the Duke softball team that just won the ACC. Guess you can say the Frelick’s are a baseball family.

[Eye Black]

Another Brewers related draft recap at FanGraphs today…

 

The Brewers took a mono-college approach for the second straight year, mixing in two JUCO prospects among four-year guys. It’s possible selecting senior lefty Russell Smith (second round) out of TCU helped facilitate the selection of physical SoCal hitter Roc Riggio (11th) on Day Three. Smith creates really tough angle on his pitches (a Brewer pattern of acquisition), will show you 95, and he executes his changeup with remarkable consistency for a 40-grade athlete. I thought Lousiville 3B/1B Alex Binelas was great value in the third round. He’s reworked his body and added more raw power since his stellar freshman year, but his hit tool regressed. He has a good shot to be a corner platoon bat at least. Duke SS Ethan Murray (fifth) and Minnesota 2B Zack Raabe (eighth) are two well-rounded potential utility types. South Carolina C/DH Wes Clarke (10th) was among the NCAA home run leaders. Fourth round JUCO arm Logan Henderson has a plus changeup, while sixth round JUCO arm Carlos Rodriguez is a plus on-mound athlete with big time arm speed. He’s wild, but has more upside than Henderson.

[snoogans8056]

How much are we looking at saving in the Smith pick? He’s got $1.44 million assigned as the pick value, but he’s a senior.

 

Is there anyone we’d look to for precedence? Is it possible we get ~1 million to play with just with that pick alone?

 

Combined with 100k here, 100k there with the rest of our top 10, we could get real nuts with those later HS guys.

[Austin Tatious]

I have to admit I may have undervalued Smith. What I’m reading about him sounds interesting.

 

Binelas seems like a risk reward guy. For where we got him, I think we are all very excited. If you look at our pre-draft thread, early on we were wondering if he’d get to 15. I get there are issues that arose but his steep fall feels like an over-correction.

[Austin Tatious]

Interesting that we now have two prospects named Carlos Rodriguez. The outfielder has shown a good hit tool after being an international signing and now we drafted a pitcher with the same name.