2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10

[PeaveyFury]

Brewers latest pick..

Raabe, Zack

Minnesota (MN)

2B

R/R

 

didn't someone famous write this? https://www.usabaseball.com/news/topic/general/gsa-spotlight-minnesota-s-zack-raabe-living-the-dream-with-gophers

 

More info on Raabe:

 

The son of former big leaguer Brian Raabe, Zack batted .463 and led NCAA Division I with 31 hits in 17 games during the shortened 2020 season. He hit .431 in the first month of this season before going into a tailspin and finishing at .315/.407/.532 with six homers in 36 games. Scouts love the righty-swinging Raabe's feel for the barrel and his makeup, but the rest of his tools are fringy and he's limited to second base.

[PeaveyFury]

9th rounder is South Carolina RHP Brannon Jordan:

 

Jordan starred for two years at Cowley County (Kan.) CC and was drafted in the 31st round by the Rays in 2019. While he can flash a mid-90s fastball and a plus slurve at times, his velocity was down to 88-92 mph for much of this season and he had problems finding the strike zone. He barely uses his changeup and projects more as a reliever than a starter in pro ball.

[brewcrewdue80]

Doesn't the rounds after 10 start the drafting un-signables stretch? Just start gobbling up top 100s that are committed to College?

 

Oh and btw that 8th rd choice and writeup sounds like a great pick there.

[markedman5]

Wes Clarke first baseman South Carolina

[Bnowell4evr]

Wes Clarke MASHES. Love the pick.

[StearnsFTW]

They announced Clarke as a catcher. Interesting.

[PeaveyFury]

More on Clarke:

 

Though Clarke tied for the NCAA Division I lead with 23 homers and has obvious strength, scouts aren't sure how his player will play in pro ball. He does draw walks and has had success with wood bats in summer leagues, but he has an uphill right-handed stroke that gets beat by quality fastballs and most offspeed pitches. He's limited athletically and a subpar defender at first base.

[umphrey]

I guess I like this draft?

 

Pick #1: Mild disappointment

Picks 2-4: Great

Picks 5-11: Nothing to see here

 

Usually there is 1-2 guys in rounds 4-10 worth paying attention to but not so much this year. I think Fangraphs will rank Frelick as our #3 prospect, though I would probably put him in the 6-10 range at best. Black and Binelas can probably be in the 15-20 range, Russell Smith just outside top 20 and the rest definitely outside the top 30.

[StearnsFTW]

Basically agree although I think Black is in the 6-8 range.

[Madhawk23]

I guess I like this draft?

 

Pick #1: Mild disappointment

Picks 2-4: Great

Picks 5-11: Nothing to see here

 

Usually there is 1-2 guys in rounds 4-10 worth paying attention to but not so much this year. I think Fangraphs will rank Frelick as our #3 prospect, though I would probably put him in the 6-10 range at best. Black and Binelas can probably be in the 15-20 range, Russell Smith just outside top 20 and the rest definitely outside the top 30.

 

Personally, I think you are undervaluing Frelick a bit - as I would clearly put him somewhere in our top 3 prospects. I'm guessing Black will slot somewhere in the 4-8 range on our list, and then I'd probably put Binelas somewhere in the 8-12 range in our system. No way, I'm ranking Binelas any lower than Lutz right now.

[jonescm128]

Have they mentioned anything about not targeting high school players? I can understand last year because of the pandemic but 2019 did not yield a high schooler until the 9th round and not taking any this year I am guessing this is now an organizational philosophy?

[umphrey]

I guess I like this draft?

 

Pick #1: Mild disappointment

Picks 2-4: Great

Picks 5-11: Nothing to see here

 

Usually there is 1-2 guys in rounds 4-10 worth paying attention to but not so much this year. I think Fangraphs will rank Frelick as our #3 prospect, though I would probably put him in the 6-10 range at best. Black and Binelas can probably be in the 15-20 range, Russell Smith just outside top 20 and the rest definitely outside the top 30.

 

Personally, I think you are undervaluing Frelick a bit - as I would clearly put him somewhere in our top 3 prospects. I'm guessing Black will slot somewhere in the 4-8 range on our list, and then I'd probably put Binelas somewhere in the 8-12 range in our system. No way, I'm ranking Binelas any lower than Lutz right now.

 

I think he's really similar to David Hamilton and Hamilton is outside our top 10

[beekay414]

How I'd slot our top 15 prospects after day 2...

 

1. Garrett Mitchell | OF

2. Ethan Small | LHP

3. Tyler Black | 2B/3B

4. Sal Frelick | IF/OF

5. Brice Turang | 2B/SS

6. Hedbert Perez | OF

7. Aaron Ashby | LHP

8. Mario Feliciano | C

9. Jeferson Quero | C

10. Antoine Kelly | LHP

11. Alex Binelas | 3B/1B

12. Freddy Zamora | SS

13. Zavier Warren | C/3B

14. Eduardo Garcia | SS

15. Tristen Lutz | OF

[umphrey]

Zavier Warren is a good example of why I only have 1 of these guys sniffing the top 10. He was our 3rd round pick last year and hitting .266/.405/.578 so how do you put someone like Binelas ahead of him?

[beekay414]

Zavier Warren is a good example of why I only have 1 of these guys sniffing the top 10. He was our 3rd round pick last year and hitting .266/.405/.578 so how do you put someone like Binelas ahead of him?

 

People put too much stock in the number next to the name. It's more tier based. Binelas and Warren are in the same tier. Call me tomorrow and that order could change.

 

Tier 1

Garrett Mitchell

 

Tier 2

Ethan Small

Tyler Black

Sal Frelick

Brice Turang

 

Tier 3

Hedbert Perez

Aaron Ashby

 

Tier 4

Mario Feliciano

Jeferson Quero

Antoine Kelly

 

Tier 5

Alex Binelas

Freddy Zamora

Zavier Warren

 

Tier 6

Eduardo Garcia

Tristen Lutz

Jackson Chourio

David Hamilton

Joe Gray Jr

 

Tier 7

Hayden Cantrelle

Jesus Parra

Luis Medina

Carlos Rodriguez

[beekay414]

Also, Warren is a 22 year old rookie in regular A ball. Wouldn't put too much stock in the numbers.

[Jenkins5]

I guess I like this draft?

 

Pick #1: Mild disappointment

Picks 2-4: Great

Picks 5-11: Nothing to see here

 

Usually there is 1-2 guys in rounds 4-10 worth paying attention to but not so much this year. I think Fangraphs will rank Frelick as our #3 prospect, though I would probably put him in the 6-10 range at best. Black and Binelas can probably be in the 15-20 range, Russell Smith just outside top 20 and the rest definitely outside the top 30.

 

Personally, I think you are undervaluing Frelick a bit - as I would clearly put him somewhere in our top 3 prospects. I'm guessing Black will slot somewhere in the 4-8 range on our list, and then I'd probably put Binelas somewhere in the 8-12 range in our system. No way, I'm ranking Binelas any lower than Lutz right now.

 

I think he's really similar to David Hamilton and Hamilton is outside our top 10

 

Well to be fair, a big reason Hamilton is outside of 10 is because he was drafted with an injury & couldn’t play after being drafted. Then no baseball last year. How can you put a bone top pick or bonus baby in top 10 when they had never touched field. Think he will be much higher soon.

 

Also Hamilton was known as a solid bat but elite speed & defender. Frelick has the elite speed & defense but also a much high end bat. Hamilton before injury wasn’t in nearly every analysts top 10-15. Frelick was for a reason. Sole reason people are down on Sal is he is 5’9 & act like he has little pop in his bat. If he was even 6’0… people would be drooling over pick. The bat is going to be much better with more pop than given credit to right now.

[sveumrules]

Yeah MLB Pipeline has Frelick at 60 Hit/45 Power vs 45 Hit/35 Power for Hamilton, so it would appear Sal has much higher offensive upside to go along with a plus speed & defense profile, which is why he was pretty much a consensus Top 10 prospect across multiple sources.

 

College stats back it up too with Sal at 345/435/521 for his career vs a career 256/358/372 line for Hamilton in college.

 

Two completely different hitters.

[Jenkins5]

Also, Warren is a 22 year old rookie in regular A ball. Wouldn't put too much stock in the numbers.

 

He is also in Carolina League though which had been notoriously hard for hitters. If this was old minors he would have been a 21 year old rookie in Helena & 22 year old in Wisconsin. That is pretty typical pace to start after being drafted. He is only slightly above league average for age. With hitters with 150 PA he is 3rd in ops… well second now Gray Jr moved up. To knock a guy for being just above or at league average for age is questionable. If he was 23 or 24 I’d get it. Over half of the top 30 hitters (16) in the league are 22 or older. That takes you all the way down to about .768 OPS. He has been terrific since slow banged up start.

[MadThinker88]

Just something to make people take a moment:

 

In the Brewers top 11 picks, 4 were pitchers (3 RH, 1 LH; all 4 are college/ JUCO arms)

 

In the LA Angels top 10 picks, all 10 were pitchers (8 RH, 2 LH; all 10 are college arms)

 

In the Indians top 11 picks, 10 were pitchers (6 RH, 4 LH; all are college arms)

[LouisEly]

Zavier Warren is a good example of why I only have 1 of these guys sniffing the top 10. He was our 3rd round pick last year and hitting .266/.405/.578 so how do you put someone like Binelas ahead of him?

Recency bias. It's rampant in every post-draft poll. Their 2nd round pick from last year is in the top-10 but the 2nd round picks from 3-4 years ago are nowhere to be found. Same with their 5th round picks.

[LouisEly]

Throwing 93 mph isn’t all that slow for a lefty. Plus maybe they hope they’re in the pitching lab they can on earth more velocity and tighten up that slider. Then again we haven’t had success with tall high picks like Thomas and Fredrickson.

 

Yep- as weird as it sounds, with the lab stuff now, velocity IS teachable. It's the exact opposite of 10 years ago, when you drafted hard throwers and prayed that you could teach them control. In this case, I assume his control rating was highly desired by the team and there's an assumption that they may be able to add a few MPH, which seems a reasonable developmental plan.

Plus, at 6'9" he probably has long arms and may have a release point closer to the plate than most pitchers (like Peralta) making his pitches seem 2-3mph faster than they clock.

[brewcrewdue80]

Just something to make people take a moment:

 

In the Brewers top 11 picks, 4 were pitchers (3 RH, 1 LH; all 4 are college/ JUCO arms)

 

In the LA Angels top 10 picks, all 10 were pitchers (8 RH, 2 LH; all 10 are college arms)

 

In the Indians top 11 picks, 10 were pitchers (6 RH, 4 LH; all are college arms)

 

 

I'll assume having a 5round draft in 2020 plus not scouting HS juniors in 2020 that were only capable to scout them as seniors for the games leading up to the draft this year. Isn't it a larger college filled draft class due to the 5rd draft.

[Jenkins5]

I was going to mention the long arms as well. Brewers love deception. With those long arms & size, you can create pretty good deception & make it seem like ball is on hitter way faster than the velocity.

 

Brewers are very high on their pitching lab & have seen some really good results. He has really good foundation with size, being lefty, command, and a plus off speed pitch. They have to believe they can maximize his stuff more.

 

Someone mentioned Jimmy Nelson earlier & think that was pretty great. We all kind of over looked Jimmy & weren’t high on the pick. He started off slower in minors but worked out really well for us. Hope this pick turns out in similar fashion. Never know, it’s a crapshoot. He could turn out to be like Lemon pick so far.

[markedman5]

All 11 of the Brewers' picks over the first two days were college players, including outfielder Sal Frelick of Boston College and second baseman Tyler Black of Wright State in the first and second rounds, respectively, on Sunday.

 

"A lot of it was the board," Johnson said. "It's not a strategic choice to take a lot of college guys; it's just the way that it fell this year. Then, budget and managing that becomes a piece of that as well."