2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10

[PeaveyFury]

I couldn't be more thrilled with the Binelas pick. Remember that prior to the season it was projected that he would be gone before our first pick. Excellent risk/reward ratio with this selection and certainly at a position of need.

 

Sometimes the picks you make in earlier rounds DO set up what you do in rounds thereafter....

[DHonks]

 

That could be a factor. I think two other things are apparent as well, especially looking at some recent picks:

1. The Brewers are adjusting to a ball that is not as "lively" as it has been. If the baseball doesn't travel as far, then does it make sense to have someone who swings for the fences?

2. The popularity of shifts would seem to open up the door for spray hitters who hit lots of doubles.

3. They may also be looking for threats on the basepaths to further limit shifting. A lot of shifts would seem to make holding a runner more difficult, not less, and the need to guard against a guy like Frelick, Mitchell, Turang, or Korry Howell from stealing might just open gaps for hitters who still tend to pull.

 

Clancy, we're both in agreement about the launch angle/Trackman decline. That goes into #1 as well. With pitchers changing their games to utilize the top half of the zone so well, hitters will have to adjust their swing-paths . So #1 is about the less lively ball, but 1a is about the change in hitting and pitching philosophies.

 

As we've both been saying for months, the next move by MLB teams will be utilizing players with good contact skills, good OBP skills, and "easy" power. While today's pitchers are using all pitches to the top of the zones, these are pitches that used to be considered "hangers." Why has Peterson had some success? He probably has the smallest uppercut on the team. Shaw, Hiura, JBJ and others have huge uppercuts.

[nate82]

I don't believe Binelas is going to be all that good. He may hit home runs but that strike out rate is concerning.

 

He may just be another Hiura or a Carter type. He will have to cut the strike out numbers if he is going to make it to the majors. I am not sure he will and thus will be a bust

[narwhalattack]

I’m also concerned about the hit tool, especially since we don’t exactly have a good track record of fixing shaky hit tools. But at this point in the draft we might as well take some risks.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't believe Binelas is going to be all that good. He may hit home runs but that strike out rate is concerning.

 

He may just be another Hiura or a Carter type. He will have to cut the strike out numbers if he is going to make it to the majors. I am not sure he will and thus will be a bust

 

Can you call a 3rd rounder that doesn't make the majors a bust, though? I can't imagine the batting average of 3rd round picks making the majors and having a significant impact is all that high.

[markedman5]

I don't believe Binelas is going to be all that good. He may hit home runs but that strike out rate is concerning.

 

He may just be another Hiura or a Carter type. He will have to cut the strike out numbers if he is going to make it to the majors. I am not sure he will and thus will be a bust

 

Darn…I was looking forward to seeing what he could do as he started his pro career.

 

Oh well…….it was fun while it lasted.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Getting Carter for the price of a third round pick is a win, though. But yes, there's an obvious risk for Binelas that he ends up with little defensive value and too little contact to stick.

[PeaveyFury]

I don't believe Binelas is going to be all that good. He may hit home runs but that strike out rate is concerning.

 

He may just be another Hiura or a Carter type. He will have to cut the strike out numbers if he is going to make it to the majors. I am not sure he will and thus will be a bust

 

I don't necessarily think you're wrong, but I think that's a risk/reward profile you're willing to live with in the 3rd, vs. 1b as some predicted him to go.

[Bnowell4evr]

Let's just go crazy and take Niko Kavadas with our next pick.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Gonna be a complete guess, but I think the Brewers take Isaiah Thomas, an OF from Vanderbilt next.

[Bnowell4evr]

Christian McLeod with his curveball would be nice as well.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Fourth round JC pitcher, someone surely has bingo now.

[markedman5]

Logan Henderson it is

[PeaveyFury]

"A true freshman, Henderson pitched McLennan (Texas) CC to the second Junior College World Series championship in school history. He took MVP honors at the Series after winning two eight-inning starts, striking out 14 against Florence-Darlington (S.C.) Tech in the first round and 17 against Central Arizona in the finals. That capped a season in which he led all national juco pitchers in strikeouts (169) and innings (97 2/3) while ranking second in strikeout rate (15.6 per nine innings) and third in ERA (1.66). Henderson's out pitch is a plus changeup that arrives in the low 80s with tumble and fade. His fastball sat at 88-92 mph for much of the spring but picked up a couple of ticks of velocity and topped out at 95 at the Junior College World Series, and it dodges barrels thanks to high spin rates that produce plenty of armside run. He also can spin a mid-70s curveball with better shape than power. Though Henderson throws three pitches for strikes and creates deception with a short arm action, he's also an undersized right-hander with no projection remaining. Analytic teams may be more impressed with his fastball than radar guns are, but clubs may want to see how he fares against better competition. He could return to McLennan or follow through on a commitment to Texas A&M if he doesn't sign this summer."

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Logan Henderson it is

 

Shorter pitcher with a mid-90s fastball and ++ change. Seems destined for a pen role. Sort of reminds me of Tyler Thornburg.

[DHonks]

They definitely said some things that check Brewers boxes. Spin rate, changeup, strikeouts, analytics

[PeaveyFury]

Sounds like 'plus changeup' and control may be the Brewers' pitching goals du jour.

 

And in Logan's case, tons of strikeouts, apparently.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I was just thinking it was time for a JUCO strikeout artist. The Brewers do seem to mine the JUCO ranks pretty early more than other teams lately.

[DHonks]

Logan Henderson it is

 

Shorter pitcher with a mid-90s fastball and ++ change. Seems destined for a pen role. Sort of reminds me of Tyler Thornburg.

 

or Roy Oswolt?

[PeaveyFury]

Let's just go crazy and take Niko Kavadas with our next pick.

 

Kavadas is a player profile I like a lot, but hasn't he basically said he's headed back to ND unless something unexpected happened? I'd think you'd have to go well over slot at this point to have a chance at him.

[MrTPlush]

Binelas has such stupid good power (and shows it in game) that he doesn't necessarily have to hit much to be a good player. I mean he could hit like .240 and if he has power with the ability to take his walks he will be a starting 1B/DH for years.

 

Seems like Schwarber would be a decent comp. Schwarbs had a .870 OPS in 2018 and has a .910 OPS this year...barely hitting .250. I don't want an entire line up of .250 30% strikeout hitters, but I won't complain about one guy. Especially if when he hits it, it goes into orbit around the sun.

[Bnowell4evr]

Let's just go crazy and take Niko Kavadas with our next pick.

 

Kavadas is a player profile I like a lot, but hasn't he basically said he's headed back to ND unless something unexpected happened? I'd think you'd have to go well over slot at this point to have a chance at him.

 

I wasn't aware about him saying he was headed back to ND.

[PeaveyFury]

Let's just go crazy and take Niko Kavadas with our next pick.

 

Kavadas is a player profile I like a lot, but hasn't he basically said he's headed back to ND unless something unexpected happened? I'd think you'd have to go well over slot at this point to have a chance at him.

 

I wasn't aware about him saying he was headed back to ND.

 

“If a great opportunity presents itself here in the next few days, that’s an avenue that I’ll pursue,” he said. “But if a great opportunity doesn’t present itself, I’m lucky enough to have the option to go back to college and compete for a national championship at Notre Dame.”

 

https://www.ndinsider.com/story/sports/2021/07/11/mlb-amateur-draft-next-up-former-notre-dame-standout-niko-kavadas/7885510002/

 

Obviously, that's a quote to an ND-oriented site, so his definition of 'great opportunity' may in actuality be 'willing to write me a check.' But, as he was largely considered to go in about this range (4th round ish?) that to me means over-slot at this point in time as we move through the 5th+.

[PeaveyFury]

Ethan Murray, SS Duke in the 5th:

A .296/.397/.429 hitter with 10 steals this spring, Murray stands out more for his instincts than his physical ability and projects as a utility man at the big league level. He's overly aggressive with a right-handed swing that gets too long and has fringy speed, with his solid arm grading as his lone better than average tool.

 

Beyond the limited info I found above, of note is that he lead a pretty good Duke team in walks.

[Madhawk23]

Ethan Murray, SS Duke in the 5th:

A .296/.397/.429 hitter with 10 steals this spring, Murray stands out more for his instincts than his physical ability and projects as a utility man at the big league level. He's overly aggressive with a right-handed swing that gets too long and has fringy speed, with his solid arm grading as his lone better than average tool.

 

Beyond the limited info I found above, of note is that he lead a pretty good Duke team in walks.

 

I got the sense from Jim Callis on the live stream that Murray doesn't have really one good tool that stands out much? Might be a bit of a head-scratcher pick in this spot? But, who really knows at this stage in the draft.