2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10

[sveumrules]

Tod Johnson cannot get fired soon enough. Must have pulled a muscle reaching. Especially with 2 guys you for sure got at near slot. That’s terrible value. Yeesh. We can develop pitching but man.

 

2017: Hiura, Lutz, Francis, Bettinger, Lazar, Ward, Bullock, File

2018: Turang, Gray, Bello, Ashby, Rasmussen, Howell, Olson, Andrews, Matulovich

2019: Small, Kelly, Bennett, Hamilton, Floyd,

2020: Turang, Zamora, Warren, Wiemer, Cantrelle,

 

All our first round picks have performed & moved up consistently since Johnson got here with plenty of intriguing guys picked up in the later rounds to boot.

 

With the caveat that making a determination on a farm director after only 4-5 years is probably a little too early with standard prospect development timelines, I like the picks that Johnson & company have made since taking over.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Huh, I guess with a huge bonus pool the Pirates might have a shot at signing Bubba after him slipping to first pick of the third round? That might be pretty consequential down the road.

[narwhalattack]

Oof, there goes Bubba Chandler to Pittsburgh. Was hoping we'd nab him at some point. Perhaps Pittsburgh got a massive discount by getting Henry which allows them to shell out big bucks for Solometo and Chandler. At least more so than we could.

[Manty Brewer Fan]

From Perfect Game…

 

85. Russell Smith, LHP, TCU (4Y)

L-L, 6-9/235, Midlothian, Texas

Previously Drafted: Cubs (’17) 38

 

Smith really broke out in terms of his strikeout potential during the season, proving to be one of the more consistent starters for the Horned Frogs. He’s a huge left-hander with a low-90s fastball and a plus changeup along with a quality slider for a third pitch. It’s a starter profile with a strong strike-throwing history along with the experience and performance.

Here is a lot more from Perfect Game on Smith from a scouting report on him after they got an in-person look:

 

Lanky lefthander Russell Smith got the start for the Horned Frogs in the first game of the second day of the event and was superb during his time on the bump. The southpaw went a little over five innings with six strikeouts and only allowed one run, a home run in his final inning of work. He finished with just the one run allowed and a ton of weak contact as he filled the zone up and was in command from the first pitch of the game.

 

Smith is a massive lefthander, listed at 6-foot-9 and 235-pounds, and he has excellent physicality and repeats his mechanics very well for someone his size. There is some funk and deception to the delivery with exaggerated side steps, rhythm, and dipping of shoulders but it's all synced up remarkably well. He strides well with his lower half and the arm stroke comes through relatively compact and from a three-quarters slot.

 

The lefthander filled it up from the first pitch of the game as the first inning was a nice microcosm of what was to come. He threw about ten pitches and got two weak ground ball outs on changeup followed by a three-pitch strikeout to end the frame. The fastball sat 90-93 mph and he held his velocity well throughout. There's plus angle on the fastball given the extreme crossfire lower half landing that Smith employs and it allowed for some poor swings by lefthanded hitters.

 

Both the changeup and the slider were solid pitches for Smith who went to the slider often. The changeup shows good sinking life and arm side fade, though he did have the tendency to drop slot at times on the pitch, and was a neutralizing agent against righthanded hitters. The slider played to hitters of either handedness and got a good amount of chases running away from lefties. There's a strong arsenal as well as a track record of success and the strikes to give him a good shot at starting at the next level.

 

There are a lot of options for the Horned Frogs on an experienced pitching staff and Smith turned in an excellent performance. He should undoubtedly be a key cog in the rotation for the foreseeable future and gives the Horned Frogs another talented veteran to rely upon as the season gets underway.

 

This writeup as well as the frelick write up have me thinking the philosophy of the organization is going to be to get ahead of the electronic zone. Guys at the plate who can take a walk and impact the ball in the zone. Pitchers who throw a ton of strikes and don't have to rely on iffy calls on the border by umps.

[narwhalattack]

Tod Johnson cannot get fired soon enough. Must have pulled a muscle reaching. Especially with 2 guys you for sure got at near slot. That’s terrible value. Yeesh. We can develop pitching but man.

 

2017: Hiura, Lutz, Francis, Bettinger, Lazar, Ward, Bullock, File

2018: Turang, Gray, Bello, Ashby, Rasmussen, Howell, Olson, Andrews, Matulovich

2019: Small, Kelly, Bennett, Hamilton, Floyd,

2020: Turang, Zamora, Warren, Wiemer, Cantrelle,

 

All our first round picks have performed & moved up consistently since Johnson got here with plenty of intriguing guys picked up in the later rounds to boot.

 

With the caveat that making a determination on a farm director after only 4-5 years is probably a little too early with standard prospect development timelines, I like the picks that Johnson & company have made since taking over.

 

Turang's so good we drafted him twice!

[PeaveyFury]

Yeah, I do find the 'fire Tod' things SOOO interesting when considering we're literally a year after a 2020 draft that was universally hailed as fantastic for the team.

[patrickgpe]

Tod Johnson cannot get fired soon enough. Must have pulled a muscle reaching. Especially with 2 guys you for sure got at near slot. That’s terrible value. Yeesh. We can develop pitching but man.

you have to at least wait through the day to see how all 10 rounds go with regards to their bonus pool. The attitude that I know more than the brewers scouting director and he should be fired because I do not like his picks is old and tiresome.

[Madhawk23]

Who are we hoping for here with our next pick? Any names to look out for?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Who are we hoping for here with our next pick? Any names to look out for?

 

Binelas is a local kid, and would fill a corner infielder hole in the system

[SoCalBrewfan]

I remember reading a quote from a scout saying something to the effect that more money was wasted on day 2 of the MLB draft than in almost any other human endeavor. Hyperbole, to be sure, but it's sobering to think how many of these $800K signings will do very little for major league teams. But for the hope of the next Realmuto or Kimbrel or Burnes, they keep at it.

[narwhalattack]

And Binelas it is!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

They actually took Binelas!

[Eye Black]

They drafted Alex Binelas, can we all just be happy now?

[StearnsFTW]

Well that should make people happy.

[Yount19]

people be happy.. lol.. Binelas!!

[Bnowell4evr]

Hey we got the home town kid!

[SoCalBrewfan]

How about that? If you told me a while back that we'd get Binelas in the third round of the '21 draft...

[Eye Black]

From Baseball America on Alex Binelas…

 

Binelas entered the 2021 season as one of the better in-game power hitters of the 2021 class, with a chance to go in the top half of the first round. He has slid down draft boards after getting off to an extremely slow start with the bat and moving across the diamond from third base to first. He went 2-for-31 during the first eight games of the season and around the halfway point was hitting just .212/.317/.424. He did have a stronger finish and hit .256/.348/.968 with 19 home runs, but teams have struggled to look past how lost he looked at the plate early, in addition to a 22% strikeout rate. Binelas does have massive raw power out of a strong, 6-foot-3, 225-pound frame and he distributed his homers from the left-center gap to the right-center gap, with some scouts assessing his raw power as 70-grade. While his career average won’t look great, Binelas’ power output and walk rates are impressive and scouts who like him appreciate his plate discipline and all-fields approach. Teams entered the year hoping he would prove his ability at third base—where he’d shown stiff actions and fringy glovework—but now he’s a likely first baseman. Some scouts think he might be athletic enough to handle left field. Binelas did have a massive, three-homer game against Clemson in the ACC Tournament, which could have swayed evaluators back to his preseason hype, but it seems safe to say Binelas raised more questions than he answered this spring.

[narwhalattack]

Even if Binelas doesn't stick at 3B, it seems like he'll have the pop to play 1B which is also a good outcome in my book. Hopefully he'll be able to hit enough to progress.

[brewers888]

I couldn't be more thrilled with the Binelas pick. Remember that prior to the season it was projected that he would be gone before our first pick. Excellent risk/reward ratio with this selection and certainly at a position of need.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Hey we got the home town kid!

 

Three rounds later than most thought he would go too. He had a ton of Top 10 buzz coming into the 2021 season, but he started slow at the plate, and didn't play as much 3B as anticipated. Also has a lot of swing-and-miss to his game. But that power is legit.

 

Hell, if he ends up being a 1B, fine with me.

[DHonks]

I am honestly unsure what to make of the second rounder, at first glance a high floor low ceiling college lefty doesn't seem riveting, but I am reminded of my less than whelmed reaction to Jimmy Nelson, among others.

 

.

 

Remember when Matt Miller was looking like the better pick between him and Nelson? I think there are a lot of things that we can't quantify. Jimmy Nelson and Brandon Woodruff are notoriously hard workers. I get the feeling their workouts are pretty intense like the old Rocket workouts.

 

I think one benefit to many college kids is a better perspective and maturity. There aren't a lot of kids that can handle instant wealth at any age, but especially high school. Colleges these days are pretty much 24/7 doing workouts, so I'd imagine many of the college kids are farther along the path of learning what it might mean to be a pro. I love HS kids, but so far I'm happy with this draft.

[DHonks]

From Perfect Game…

 

85. Russell Smith, LHP, TCU (4Y)

L-L, 6-9/235, Midlothian, Texas

Previously Drafted: Cubs (’17) 38

 

Smith really broke out in terms of his strikeout potential during the season, proving to be one of the more consistent starters for the Horned Frogs. He’s a huge left-hander with a low-90s fastball and a plus changeup along with a quality slider for a third pitch. It’s a starter profile with a strong strike-throwing history along with the experience and performance.

Here is a lot more from Perfect Game on Smith from a scouting report on him after they got an in-person look:

 

Lanky lefthander Russell Smith got the start for the Horned Frogs in the first game of the second day of the event and was superb during his time on the bump. The southpaw went a little over five innings with six strikeouts and only allowed one run, a home run in his final inning of work. He finished with just the one run allowed and a ton of weak contact as he filled the zone up and was in command from the first pitch of the game.

 

Smith is a massive lefthander, listed at 6-foot-9 and 235-pounds, and he has excellent physicality and repeats his mechanics very well for someone his size. There is some funk and deception to the delivery with exaggerated side steps, rhythm, and dipping of shoulders but it's all synced up remarkably well. He strides well with his lower half and the arm stroke comes through relatively compact and from a three-quarters slot.

 

The lefthander filled it up from the first pitch of the game as the first inning was a nice microcosm of what was to come. He threw about ten pitches and got two weak ground ball outs on changeup followed by a three-pitch strikeout to end the frame. The fastball sat 90-93 mph and he held his velocity well throughout. There's plus angle on the fastball given the extreme crossfire lower half landing that Smith employs and it allowed for some poor swings by lefthanded hitters.

 

Both the changeup and the slider were solid pitches for Smith who went to the slider often. The changeup shows good sinking life and arm side fade, though he did have the tendency to drop slot at times on the pitch, and was a neutralizing agent against righthanded hitters. The slider played to hitters of either handedness and got a good amount of chases running away from lefties. There's a strong arsenal as well as a track record of success and the strikes to give him a good shot at starting at the next level.

 

There are a lot of options for the Horned Frogs on an experienced pitching staff and Smith turned in an excellent performance. He should undoubtedly be a key cog in the rotation for the foreseeable future and gives the Horned Frogs another talented veteran to rely upon as the season gets underway.

 

This writeup as well as the frelick write up have me thinking the philosophy of the organization is going to be to get ahead of the electronic zone. Guys at the plate who can take a walk and impact the ball in the zone. Pitchers who throw a ton of strikes and don't have to rely on iffy calls on the border by umps.

 

I think this is key. I feel like contact, plate discipline, speed, and defense are characteristics that can't really be taught at this age. They either have a good foundation to improve on, or they don't (so they get refined, but not taught). Power is different. There's raw power, and there's refined power (someone who makes good contact but learns to barrel the ball more). To use a golf comparison, Dechambeau used analytics and training to improve his power, but he was already a great ball-striker.

[clancyphile]

From Perfect Game…

 

85. Russell Smith, LHP, TCU (4Y)

L-L, 6-9/235, Midlothian, Texas

Previously Drafted: Cubs (’17) 38

 

Smith really broke out in terms of his strikeout potential during the season, proving to be one of the more consistent starters for the Horned Frogs. He’s a huge left-hander with a low-90s fastball and a plus changeup along with a quality slider for a third pitch. It’s a starter profile with a strong strike-throwing history along with the experience and performance.

Here is a lot more from Perfect Game on Smith from a scouting report on him after they got an in-person look:

 

Lanky lefthander Russell Smith got the start for the Horned Frogs in the first game of the second day of the event and was superb during his time on the bump. The southpaw went a little over five innings with six strikeouts and only allowed one run, a home run in his final inning of work. He finished with just the one run allowed and a ton of weak contact as he filled the zone up and was in command from the first pitch of the game.

 

Smith is a massive lefthander, listed at 6-foot-9 and 235-pounds, and he has excellent physicality and repeats his mechanics very well for someone his size. There is some funk and deception to the delivery with exaggerated side steps, rhythm, and dipping of shoulders but it's all synced up remarkably well. He strides well with his lower half and the arm stroke comes through relatively compact and from a three-quarters slot.

 

The lefthander filled it up from the first pitch of the game as the first inning was a nice microcosm of what was to come. He threw about ten pitches and got two weak ground ball outs on changeup followed by a three-pitch strikeout to end the frame. The fastball sat 90-93 mph and he held his velocity well throughout. There's plus angle on the fastball given the extreme crossfire lower half landing that Smith employs and it allowed for some poor swings by lefthanded hitters.

 

Both the changeup and the slider were solid pitches for Smith who went to the slider often. The changeup shows good sinking life and arm side fade, though he did have the tendency to drop slot at times on the pitch, and was a neutralizing agent against righthanded hitters. The slider played to hitters of either handedness and got a good amount of chases running away from lefties. There's a strong arsenal as well as a track record of success and the strikes to give him a good shot at starting at the next level.

 

There are a lot of options for the Horned Frogs on an experienced pitching staff and Smith turned in an excellent performance. He should undoubtedly be a key cog in the rotation for the foreseeable future and gives the Horned Frogs another talented veteran to rely upon as the season gets underway.

 

This writeup as well as the frelick write up have me thinking the philosophy of the organization is going to be to get ahead of the electronic zone. Guys at the plate who can take a walk and impact the ball in the zone. Pitchers who throw a ton of strikes and don't have to rely on iffy calls on the border by umps.

 

That could be a factor. I think two other things are apparent as well, especially looking at some recent picks:

1. The Brewers are adjusting to a ball that is not as "lively" as it has been. If the baseball doesn't travel as far, then does it make sense to have someone who swings for the fences?

2. The popularity of shifts would seem to open up the door for spray hitters who hit lots of doubles.

3. They may also be looking for threats on the basepaths to further limit shifting. A lot of shifts would seem to make holding a runner more difficult, not less, and the need to guard against a guy like Frelick, Mitchell, Turang, or Korry Howell from stealing might just open gaps for hitters who still tend to pull.

[patrickgpe]

They actually took Binelas!

VERY HAPPY!. Same posters want Johnson fired now?