2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10

[Eye Black]

I think he was ranked over 100 and a guy that big that doesn't throw hard is hardly an exciting selection.

Reminder that Brandon Woodruff was ranked #200 by Baseball America prior to the 2014 draft and this was his draft day scouting report…

 

An unsigned fifth-round pick of out of high school in 2011, Woodruff had an uneven three years at Mississippi State. He had a stress fracture in his elbow last year and was expected to become a rotation stalwart this season, but moved to the bullpen after six starts. In the rotation he pitched at 88-92 mph, touching 94. He was at 91-95 mph out of the bullpen, touching 97 at his best. Woodruff primarily uses two-seamers and gets downhill plane and plus fastball life with hard sink and armside run. His best secondary offering is a changeup that shows plus potential. His slider shows average potential but has been inconsistent. He will likely be a reliever in pro ball, but he has the fastball, plus secondary pitch and body (6-foot-2, 231 pounds) for the rotation. He has walked 5.0 per nine for his career and 5.7 this season, with a 1.2 strikeout-walk ratio.

[brewers888]

I think he was ranked over 100 and a guy that big that doesn't throw hard is hardly an exciting selection.

Reminder that Brandon Woodruff was ranked #200 by Baseball America prior to the 2014 draft and this was his draft day scouting report…

 

An unsigned fifth-round pick of out of high school in 2011, Woodruff had an uneven three years at Mississippi State. He had a stress fracture in his elbow last year and was expected to become a rotation stalwart this season, but moved to the bullpen after six starts. In the rotation he pitched at 88-92 mph, touching 94. He was at 91-95 mph out of the bullpen, touching 97 at his best. Woodruff primarily uses two-seamers and gets downhill plane and plus fastball life with hard sink and armside run. His best secondary offering is a changeup that shows plus potential. His slider shows average potential but has been inconsistent. He will likely be a reliever in pro ball, but he has the fastball, plus secondary pitch and body (6-foot-2, 231 pounds) for the rotation. He has walked 5.0 per nine for his career and 5.7 this season, with a 1.2 strikeout-walk ratio.

 

Wasn't Woodruff drafted much later than this. His draft profile was fine for a mid round draft pick.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm going to be on board with the pick simply when you read a #5 Starter...as his Floor. The video I see the deception. Yet it sounds he locates on top the deception. I like that hes big and not lanky for that height. Seems a high riser and strong read on the skillset to think he can be first from 2nd rd to play on ML team.

[brewers888]

So high school bats are supposed to be the strength of the draft. Too bad we don't appear to even scout much less draft high school players.

[umphrey]

Under slot pick?

 

I'm curious as to what end if that's the case. I don't think Frelick nor Black would have huge demands (although they wouldn't be that underslot either), so that would be 3 straight picks where we wouldn't exactly be ponying up that much. So either we're really looking for someone to fall from rounds 3 onward or we just have a type and that's polished college hitters and Ethan Small clones lmao

I was curious myself. Was thinking Frelick would be at slot and Black probably at slot or maybe slightly over. Over slot picks after round 2-3 feel really useless to me personally.

[PeaveyFury]

 

Sounds like a big time reach.

 

 

Based on what

 

I think he was ranked over 100 and a guy that big that doesn't throw hard is hardly an exciting selection.

 

Perfect game had him ranked in the 80's, and the Brewers took him at 51, so no.

[brewcrewdue80]

ote="Eye Black"]From Baseball America…

 

Name: Russell Smith

Born: in Midlothian, TX

High School: Midlothian (Texas) HS

College: Texas Christian

Ht.: 6'9" / Wt.: 235 lbs

Bats: L / Throws: L

 

 

 

I think he was ranked over 100 and a guy that big that doesn't throw hard is hardly an exciting selection.

 

Seems that ranking had more to do with having TJ in 2019 and pitching under 22innings in 2020. These pipeline rankings arent a current up to date rankings. They've been around more than a month.

 

Sorry this was in reply to Brewers888

[PeaveyFury]

So high school bats are supposed to be the strength of the draft. Too bad we don't appear to even scout much less draft high school players.

 

The repetitiveness needs to stop. Seriously, we ban posters here for posting the same things over and over. Make your point and move on.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well, it took 15 years, but I finally put someone on ignore.

 

Welcome to the club!

[Eye Black]

Over slot picks after round 2-3 feel really useless to me personally.

Aaron Ashby was an over slot 4th round signing (by around $85,000) in the 2018 draft.

[PeaveyFury]

This one does make me wonder if they took an arm they liked a bit early for under-slot because they weren't sure he'd make it to their 3rd, which opens them up to go a bit over slot if someone falls to them in the 3rd.

[DHonks]

Throwing 93 mph isn’t all that slow for a lefty. Plus maybe they hope they’re in the pitching lab they can on earth more velocity and tighten up that slider. Then again we haven’t had success with tall high picks like Thomas and Fredrickson.

[narwhalattack]

This one does make me wonder if they took an arm they liked a bit early for under-slot because they weren't sure he'd make it to their 3rd, which opens them up to go a bit over slot if someone falls to them in the 3rd.

 

I wonder what popped out to them about him. At first glance his stuff doesn't seem all that inspiring, but there's gotta be more to it than "Ethan Small did well so let's take someone similar."

[brewcrewdue80]

Take thus far.

1-slot

2- at slot-below 125k

3-at slot-below 100k

 

Overslot has value in the following 2 rounds. 225k could reach a guy like Binelas asking range. For instance.

Maybe they save more.

[PeaveyFury]

Throwing 93 mph isn’t all that slow for a lefty. Plus maybe they hope they’re in the pitching lab they can on earth more velocity and tighten up that slider. Then again we haven’t had success with tall high picks like Thomas and Fredrickson.

 

Yep- as weird as it sounds, with the lab stuff now, velocity IS teachable. It's the exact opposite of 10 years ago, when you drafted hard throwers and prayed that you could teach them control. In this case, I assume his control rating was highly desired by the team and there's an assumption that they may be able to add a few MPH, which seems a reasonable developmental plan.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Tod Johnson cannot get fired soon enough. Must have pulled a muscle reaching. Especially with 2 guys you for sure got at near slot. That’s terrible value. Yeesh. We can develop pitching but man.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I am honestly unsure what to make of the second rounder, at first glance a high floor low ceiling college lefty doesn't seem riveting, but I am reminded of my less than whelmed reaction to Jimmy Nelson, among others.

 

We do seem to like college players of late, though it's difficult to draw any conclusions from last year as it was probably pretty difficult to scout HS players. It wasn't that long ago (2018) that almost our entire top end of the draft was prep guys, so it is interesting to see whether this is a long term trend or a reaction to the value proposition in front of them this particular draft. I still think that the dominant trend is value and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the analytics side pushing them in that direction. Part of the moneyball era was a recognition that the toolsy HS picks were not returning the value that perceived low ceiling college picks were. Then the value trend seems to have swung to the reverse, but perhaps some models suggest the pendulum is again trending the other way?

 

Getting bent out of shape because the Brewers aren't doing what you would, or what you think they should based on your careful reading of Baseball America, is just fruitless.

[CheeseheadInQC]

It could also be the Brewers value plus changeups more than the prospect rankers do. I think it was one of the fangraphs guys who said when a pitcher exceeds expectations, a plus changeup is often the reason.

[sveumrules]

This one does make me wonder if they took an arm they liked a bit early for under-slot because they weren't sure he'd make it to their 3rd, which opens them up to go a bit over slot if someone falls to them in the 3rd.

 

I wonder what popped out to them about him. At first glance his stuff doesn't seem all that inspiring, but there's gotta be more to it than "Ethan Small did well so let's take someone similar."

 

The Brewers FO has access to (& apparently leans heavily on) data that is not available in the public sphere.

 

Would imagine his pitches have spin or tunneling profiles which the Brewers think will play or can be improved upon, plus his height surely creates a unique angle of attack which they also seem to be pretty big believers in.

[PeaveyFury]

We do seem to like college players of late, though it's difficult to draw any conclusions from last year as it was probably pretty difficult to scout HS players..

 

I think you hit on a fair point. I'm certain the past year made it harder to scout HS, and easier to scout the college game.

 

I also think it's a quick way to infuse talent into a system that is limited that will hypothetically move that talent up quickly. Hypothetically, the goal is for guys like Sal and Mitchell to be in the conversation for 26-man spots in just a couple of years, which would aid the Brewers in extending their window.

[narwhalattack]

I am honestly unsure what to make of the second rounder, at first glance a high floor low ceiling college lefty doesn't seem riveting, but I am reminded of my less than whelmed reaction to Jimmy Nelson, among others.

 

We do seem to like college players of late, though it's difficult to draw any conclusions from last year as it was probably pretty difficult to scout HS players. It wasn't that long ago (2018) that almost our entire top end of the draft was prep guys, so it is interesting to see whether this is a long term trend or a reaction to the value proposition in front of them this particular draft. I still think that the dominant trend is value and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the analytics side pushing them in that direction. Part of the moneyball era was a recognition that the toolsy HS picks were not returning the value that perceived low ceiling college picks were. Then the value trend seems to have swung to the reverse, but perhaps some models suggest the pendulum is again trending the other way?

 

Getting bent out of shape because the Brewers aren't doing what you would, or what you think they should based on your careful reading of Baseball America, is just fruitless.

 

At least to me, not many of the HS players available were all that enticing by the time we got around to picking. Perhaps we could've drafted Watson at 15, or Chandler at Comp A or Round 2, but it's possible that those guys would've been extremely difficult signs for us, particularly Chandler.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Also, Woodruff was an 11th rounder, but I remember the bonus being significantly more than what you would expect for that round.

[Eye Black]

From Perfect Game…

 

85. Russell Smith, LHP, TCU (4Y)

L-L, 6-9/235, Midlothian, Texas

Previously Drafted: Cubs (’17) 38

 

Smith really broke out in terms of his strikeout potential during the season, proving to be one of the more consistent starters for the Horned Frogs. He’s a huge left-hander with a low-90s fastball and a plus changeup along with a quality slider for a third pitch. It’s a starter profile with a strong strike-throwing history along with the experience and performance.

Here is a lot more from Perfect Game on Smith from a scouting report on him after they got an in-person look:

 

Lanky lefthander Russell Smith got the start for the Horned Frogs in the first game of the second day of the event and was superb during his time on the bump. The southpaw went a little over five innings with six strikeouts and only allowed one run, a home run in his final inning of work. He finished with just the one run allowed and a ton of weak contact as he filled the zone up and was in command from the first pitch of the game.

 

Smith is a massive lefthander, listed at 6-foot-9 and 235-pounds, and he has excellent physicality and repeats his mechanics very well for someone his size. There is some funk and deception to the delivery with exaggerated side steps, rhythm, and dipping of shoulders but it's all synced up remarkably well. He strides well with his lower half and the arm stroke comes through relatively compact and from a three-quarters slot.

 

The lefthander filled it up from the first pitch of the game as the first inning was a nice microcosm of what was to come. He threw about ten pitches and got two weak ground ball outs on changeup followed by a three-pitch strikeout to end the frame. The fastball sat 90-93 mph and he held his velocity well throughout. There's plus angle on the fastball given the extreme crossfire lower half landing that Smith employs and it allowed for some poor swings by lefthanded hitters.

 

Both the changeup and the slider were solid pitches for Smith who went to the slider often. The changeup shows good sinking life and arm side fade, though he did have the tendency to drop slot at times on the pitch, and was a neutralizing agent against righthanded hitters. The slider played to hitters of either handedness and got a good amount of chases running away from lefties. There's a strong arsenal as well as a track record of success and the strikes to give him a good shot at starting at the next level.

 

There are a lot of options for the Horned Frogs on an experienced pitching staff and Smith turned in an excellent performance. He should undoubtedly be a key cog in the rotation for the foreseeable future and gives the Horned Frogs another talented veteran to rely upon as the season gets underway.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Yeah, also if you buy into the waves model, college picks this year should be on a similar time frame to HS/JC picks from 2018, which includes Turang, Gray, Bello, Ashby from '18, Lutz, Bullock, Ward, Lazar, and LG Castillo from '17.

[Oxy]

We do seem to like college players of late, though it's difficult to draw any conclusions from last year as it was probably pretty difficult to scout HS players..

 

I think you hit on a fair point. I'm certain the past year made it harder to scout HS, and easier to scout the college game.

 

I also think it's a quick way to infuse talent into a system that is limited that will hypothetically move that talent up quickly. Hypothetically, the goal is for guys like Sal and Mitchell to be in the conversation for 26-man spots in just a couple of years, which would aid the Brewers in extending their window.

 

Not only that, but we've signed a lot of young latino players the last couple of years, and in order to balance out the age groups throughout the system we may need to draft more college guys.