2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10

[Eye Black]

It'll be interesting to see how quickly Sal adjusts to the wooden bat plus professional pitching.

Take it for what it’s worth, but Frelick was the best hitter two years in a row in the wood bat summer league he played in. Looks like he also hit 10 home runs in 265 plate appearances (229 at bats) in that league.

[brewers888]

The issue to me is that the first round should be about ceiling. Give me the best case scenario of Corey Seager which is the comp for Colson Montgomery over a best case scenario of someone like Adam Eaton which is probably a best case for a guy like Frelich.

 

If this was a later pick I would have no issue with it but small market franchises should be swinging for the fences with premium draft picks instead of going with an attempt at a bunt single.

[brewers888]

I don't know if you can use current roster makeup as a reason to draft a certain type of player. When we drafted Corey Ray everyone was clamoring about getting a pitcher and now five years later we have three starting pitchers in the all-star game. Best case is these two are MLB ready in like three years. A lot can happen between now and then - Joe Gray and Garrett Mitchell might be all-stars for all we know. You get the best player(s) available and see how things shake out later on.

 

Exactly. For all we know, Urias and Hiura or Tellez could be on their way to the All Star Game at this time next year, and we'll have the corner infield locked down for the net half decade.

 

Its great to be optimistic but the odds of Hiura or Rowdy ever being all star level is ridiculously low. We should be lucky if either of them is serviceable much less star quality.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't know if you can use current roster makeup as a reason to draft a certain type of player. When we drafted Corey Ray everyone was clamoring about getting a pitcher and now five years later we have three starting pitchers in the all-star game. Best case is these two are MLB ready in like three years. A lot can happen between now and then - Joe Gray and Garrett Mitchell might be all-stars for all we know. You get the best player(s) available and see how things shake out later on.

 

Exactly. For all we know, Urias and Hiura or Tellez could be on their way to the All Star Game at this time next year, and we'll have the corner infield locked down for the net half decade.

 

Its great to be optimistic but the odds of Hiura or Rowdy ever being all star level is ridiculously low. We should be lucky if either of them is serviceable much less star quality.

 

You are correct. The odds are low. But the fact that odds still exist only reinforces the idea that the Brewers should be drafting the player who they feel is the best available, regardless of position. It is a slippery slope drafting for need when the vast majority of drafted players don't see the majors until 3-4 seasons after they are drafted. Heck, 3 years ago, there were a lot of Brewer fans who figured 1B and 3B would be locked down by Aguilar and Shaw for the next 5-6 years at least.

[sveumrules]

The issue to me is that the first round should be about ceiling. Give me the best case scenario of Corey Seager which is the comp for Colson Montgomery over a best case scenario of someone like Adam Eaton which is probably a best case for a guy like Frelich.

 

If this was a later pick I would have no issue with it but small market franchises should be swinging for the fences with premium draft picks instead of going with an attempt at a bunt single.

 

Only 16.8% of players drafted in the first round from pick #15 until the end of the first round even cracked a measly 7 WAR from the 2004-13 drafts.

 

It's not as premium of a pick as you think it is, because the MLB Draft is a huge crapshoot after the first few picks. Even in a draft that was universally hailed as the Delmon Young/Rickie Weeks draft at the time, ended up being just the Nick Markakis draft.

[narwhalattack]

There was a time when I thought Stetson Allie had the potential to become the next Nolan Ryan or at the very least the next fireballing ace. Just goes to show how much I know

[homer]

The issue to me is that the first round should be about ceiling. Give me the best case scenario of Corey Seager which is the comp for Colson Montgomery over a best case scenario of someone like Adam Eaton which is probably a best case for a guy like Frelich.

 

If this was a later pick I would have no issue with it but small market franchises should be swinging for the fences with premium draft picks instead of going with an attempt at a bunt single.

 

You mean like Jacob Gatewood, Monte Harrison, Corey Ray swing for the fences?

[Oxy]

The issue to me is that the first round should be about ceiling. Give me the best case scenario of Corey Seager which is the comp for Colson Montgomery over a best case scenario of someone like Adam Eaton which is probably a best case for a guy like Frelich.

 

If this was a later pick I would have no issue with it but small market franchises should be swinging for the fences with premium draft picks instead of going with an attempt at a bunt single.

 

Name the best true centerfielders outside of Mike Trout and Ken Griffey jr. since Willie Mays hung up the cleats. Like it or not, we are going to draft guys with the potential defensive chops to play up the middle OR a guy like Hiura with that overwhelming hit/power combo with a high likelihood to reach that "potential." Sure, the comps you read about Colson Montgomery say best case scenario of Corey Seagar which lights up your brain....but perhaps our scouts didn't see that. Maybe our scouts saw a BEST case scenario of Colin Moran. Is that enough for you to pass on a guy like Frelick who could be Johnny Damon or Lenny Dykstra?

[Bnowell4evr]

What do you guys think of Spencer Schwellenbach? He's on my small wish list.

[brewers888]

The issue to me is that the first round should be about ceiling. Give me the best case scenario of Corey Seager which is the comp for Colson Montgomery over a best case scenario of someone like Adam Eaton which is probably a best case for a guy like Frelich.

 

If this was a later pick I would have no issue with it but small market franchises should be swinging for the fences with premium draft picks instead of going with an attempt at a bunt single.

 

You mean like Jacob Gatewood, Monte Harrison, Corey Ray swing for the fences?

 

I was fine with both Gatewood and Harrison. When you swing for the fences sometimes you miss but when it works out you have a star on your hands.

[sveumrules]

Just saw we took Frelick with Watson still on the board. Either he is unsignable or Milwaukee is taking Ls all over tonight SMH. Our farm system is 29th ranked. Maybe it’s time to deviate from the player model we lean so heavily on apparently hmmm.

 

We've graduated or traded for Narvaez, Hiura, Adames, Urias, Yelich, Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Houser, Hader, Williams, Suter & won the 7th most games in MLB over the last four years.

 

29th ranked farm or not, Ashby, Small, Mitchell & Turang are all due to start coming up over the next couple years & look like potential MLB contributors at this point.

 

The models are working just fine.

 

 

Yet we still don't have a 1B or 3B in that model system you speak of.

 

1B maybe not, luckily that is the easiest position to fill.

 

Sure, over 152 games from 2020-21 the Brewers 1B have posted a 92 wRC+ (25th) and 0.1 WAR (26th). But in the 649 games from 2016-19 Stearns & company managed to get a 120 wRC+ (7th) and 9.2 WAR (10th) from 1B from cast offs & never got a chances like Aguilar, Thames & Carter. There's about four times as much evidence indicating Stearns & company will be able to figure something out than there is that 1B is some huge blindspot in organizational philosophy.

 

Urias is handling 3B capably currently, and Adames could slide over also if Turang is a better defensive SS in the future or the team decides to bring in someone like Marcus Semien over the winter or whoever they go after at the deadline. Plenty of flexibility in both the near & long term at 3B.

[brewers888]

The issue to me is that the first round should be about ceiling. Give me the best case scenario of Corey Seager which is the comp for Colson Montgomery over a best case scenario of someone like Adam Eaton which is probably a best case for a guy like Frelich.

 

If this was a later pick I would have no issue with it but small market franchises should be swinging for the fences with premium draft picks instead of going with an attempt at a bunt single.

 

Name the best true centerfielders outside of Mike Trout and Ken Griffey jr. since Willie Mays hung up the cleats. Like it or not, we are going to draft guys with the potential defensive chops to play up the middle OR a guy like Hiura with that overwhelming hit/power combo with a high likelihood to reach that "potential." Sure, the comps you read about Colson Montgomery say best case scenario of Corey Seagar which lights up your brain....but perhaps our scouts didn't see that. Maybe our scouts saw a BEST case scenario of Colin Moran. Is that enough for you to pass on a guy like Frelick who could be Johnny Damon or Lenny Dykstra?

 

I would draft a profile like Hiura over one like Frelich. Keston has star ability but somewhere it fell apart and I blame the Brewers and specifically Haines for his downfall.

[narwhalattack]

The issue to me is that the first round should be about ceiling. Give me the best case scenario of Corey Seager which is the comp for Colson Montgomery over a best case scenario of someone like Adam Eaton which is probably a best case for a guy like Frelich.

 

If this was a later pick I would have no issue with it but small market franchises should be swinging for the fences with premium draft picks instead of going with an attempt at a bunt single.

 

You mean like Jacob Gatewood, Monte Harrison, Corey Ray swing for the fences?

 

I was fine with both Gatewood and Harrison. When you swing for the fences sometimes you miss but when it works out you have a star on your hands.

 

Or we take Montgomery, he fizzles out in A+, and then 3 years from now you whine about how our FO sucks at addressing corner IF.

[brewcrewdue80]

There goes my prediction for Kudrna. To KC.

[homer]

I'd be curious to know how many boom or bust first-round picks actually boom. To me it makes much more sense to go for high floor guys in the 1st round if you're a small market.

[Oxy]

The issue to me is that the first round should be about ceiling. Give me the best case scenario of Corey Seager which is the comp for Colson Montgomery over a best case scenario of someone like Adam Eaton which is probably a best case for a guy like Frelich.

 

If this was a later pick I would have no issue with it but small market franchises should be swinging for the fences with premium draft picks instead of going with an attempt at a bunt single.

 

Name the best true centerfielders outside of Mike Trout and Ken Griffey jr. since Willie Mays hung up the cleats. Like it or not, we are going to draft guys with the potential defensive chops to play up the middle OR a guy like Hiura with that overwhelming hit/power combo with a high likelihood to reach that "potential." Sure, the comps you read about Colson Montgomery say best case scenario of Corey Seagar which lights up your brain....but perhaps our scouts didn't see that. Maybe our scouts saw a BEST case scenario of Colin Moran. Is that enough for you to pass on a guy like Frelick who could be Johnny Damon or Lenny Dykstra?

 

I would draft a profile like Hiura over one like Frelich. Keston has star ability but somewhere it fell apart and I blame the Brewers and specifically Haines for his downfall.

 

OF course you would. So would I and so would David Stearns! Since he...you know DID draft Keston Hiura. But there IS NO Keston Hiura in this draft. Frelick might actually be the closest to what he was.

[Eye Black]

FanGraphs Day 1 Draft Recap article had the following about the Brewers draft…

 

KG: Milwaukee was generally expected to be in on the college arms, but it’s fair to say that they didn’t expect Frelick to be there at 15, either. This is a great value pick that also fits well with the way they draft. Black is another big college performer who was rumored to be in their mix in the first-round, so taking him in the comp round was a no-brainer.

 

EL: Milwaukee is doing exactly what they did last year: taking good value college bats. We had Black with the Brewers at this pick in an iteration of our final mock but were told he’d likely go before that, so this was a steal of sorts. Frelick should at least become a viable piece but may not have everyday player power.

[narwhalattack]

Damn, I was hoping that Solometo would fall to us but the Pirates nab him. Can't say for sure if we would've taken him even if he were available, but a guy can dream.

[brewers888]

There goes my prediction for Kudrna. To KC.

 

Isn't he a high school guy and if yes you shouldn't have any expectations of a high school guy being picked in the early rounds. This is obviously a college oriented drafting team for better or worse.

[Eye Black]

Peyton Stovall just announced he’s withdrawing from the MLB Draft (Link).

[brewers888]

I'm still holding out hope for Binelas.

[brewers888]

Peyton Stovall just announced he’s withdrawing from the MLB Draft.

 

Can you withdraw from the draft while its actually taking place.

[BallFour]

MLB Draft is such a crapshoot it is hard for me to complain. The Brewers are obviously are looking for OBP traits in hitters. My issue with that line of thinking is does it really have high probability of translating to the minor leagues? I don't know the answer but I think we all can hope the Brewers have a good idea. I look at a guy like Nick Kahle who was a walk machine in college and now is a strike out machine in the minor leagues and think uh oh. Then I look at Zavier Warren who although old for his age at A ball is having success not only translating his OBP skills to minor league baseball but has added even more power to his profile. In conclusion no one knows, but maybe hit tool is the most translatable from college to the minors.

[narwhalattack]

Peyton Stovall just announced he’s withdrawing from the MLB Draft (Link).

 

I was wondering why we went with Black instead of Stovall

[Oxy]

Peyton Stovall just announced he’s withdrawing from the MLB Draft.

 

Can you withdraw from the draft while its actually taking place.

 

I'm guessing the same could be said for Bubba Chandler and Will Taylor? The Clemson guys? Or might somebody still open up the pocket book for them?