2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10

[clancyphile]

My sense of Frelick and Black is this:

Both are like, Hernan Perez only they have plus bats. Black looks like he has plus gap power, while Frelick offers plus-plus speed.

[brewers888]

I believe both Frelick and Black are players that had more walks than strikeouts in college.

 

So did Keston Hiura his senior year. I’d take college strikeouts versus walks with a very small grain of salt.

Well sure, always take college stats with a grain of salt. That being said, Sal Frelick and Tyler Black both had identical 10.4% strikeout rates for their college careers. Keston Hiura had a 16% career strikeout rate in college and since appears to have altered his swing to hit for more power.

 

Ironically MrTPlush, Frelick sort of reminds me a little bit of Nyjer Morgan, although it appears Frelick should have more power to drive it to the gaps for doubles.

 

Is Nyjer Morgan the type of talent this team should be drafting in the first round. At this point in the draft they should have gone with someone with more upside and no it means nothing to me that he was mocked to go this high.

[brewers888]

One thing that has become pretty clear about this front office and scouting staff; they clearly prefer going the college route. Whether thats good or bad is up for debate but they don't use many high picks on high school players.

[Bnowell4evr]

I've seen the Brewers chase after high upside talent early in the draft and fail miserably. I prefer they go the high floor route and then take some chances on risky talent later. I counted 9 prospects in the draft that had a 60 grade hit tool according to MLB Pipeline and we drafted 2 of them so far. We could possibly grab a 3rd when we're up again in 15 picks! I couldn't be more happy with how this has played out.

 

There wasn't a single mock draft that had Frelick making it to us and people are acting like we took a giant reach.

[clancyphile]

One thing that has become pretty clear about this front office and scouting staff; they clearly prefer going the college route. Whether thats good or bad is up for debate but they don't use many high picks on high school players.

 

With all the shifts and balls that aren't as "lively," the spray hitters who get a lot of doubles and who have speed are the next big market inefficiency. I wouldn't be surprised to see the stolen base make a comeback as well. Why? You have to manufacture runs.

 

These days, the big question is, can hitters like Christian Yelich and Keston Hiura adjust so that they aren't just pull hitters trying to hit every baseball out of the park? Better to find players who do that naturally.

[MrTPlush]

The only thing I dislike about the selection is the 'perceived' ceiling of him. If things start going wrong or he develops a hole in their bat it won't take much for him to be AAAA fodder at best. It isn't much different from someone like Rickie Weeks. Difference is Weeks had power to make up for the loss of his high contact ability. Frelick is a one trick pony. He needs to hit and he needs to get walks...he has no power potential if he isn't above average hitting/getting on base.

 

Don't get me wrong, I love a guy like Frelick IF he can actually be an elite contact hitter at the MLB level and not strike out much. He would be a great guy at the top of the order. He just doesn't have much room for error with the lack of power (and really unlikely he magically finds some at the venture/his size).

 

You could honestly say the same about a guy with power but questionable hit tool. Power is worthless if a guy can't hit enough to make much use of it. Just ask Hiura.

 

The difference is Frelick doesn't have questionable power, he literally doesn't have any power. His batting style doesn't really allow for there to be any future potential either. We will see how his bat translates to pro ball and the MLB. Maybe he can rack up some doubles down the road to have a good slugging percentage. We will also see how his speed translates to base stealing at the next level, another big part of how good he could be.

 

I don't hate the pick, but I can certainly see why someone would be disappointed we took a 'low ceiling' guy in the Top 15 and being our first pick. I don't get too hung up who we draft because its easy to be a pessimist when most fail and many of the others get traded before they ever debut with us. I will start caring more a few years from now when he is valuable trade bait or close to the MLB level.

 

I have found that freaking out good or bad is almost always comical in the end. The most impactful draft picks seem to more often be guys no one cares about one way or the other because they weren't drafted in the first round. The people everyone hypes up and wanted become absolutely nothing. The scouting reports in retrospect are usually about as accurate as a mock drafts are .Of the guys we draft this year 9/10 probably A) Suck or B) Never actually play for us. This ain't the NBA/NFL where they might help us win the championship next year.

[narwhalattack]

The only thing I dislike about the selection is the 'perceived' ceiling of him. If things start going wrong or he develops a hole in their bat it won't take much for him to be AAAA fodder at best. It isn't much different from someone like Rickie Weeks. Difference is Weeks had power to make up for the loss of his high contact ability. Frelick is a one trick pony. He needs to hit and he needs to get walks...he has no power potential if he isn't above average hitting/getting on base.

 

Don't get me wrong, I love a guy like Frelick IF he can actually be an elite contact hitter at the MLB level and not strike out much. He would be a great guy at the top of the order. He just doesn't have much room for error with the lack of power (and really unlikely he magically finds some at the venture/his size).

 

You could honestly say the same about a guy with power but questionable hit tool. Power is worthless if a guy can't hit enough to make much use of it. Just ask Hiura.

 

The difference is Frelick doesn't have questionable power, he literally doesn't have any power. His batting style doesn't really allow for there to be any future potential either. We will see how his bat translates to pro ball and the MLB. Maybe he can rack up some doubles down the road to have a good slugging percentage. We will also see how his speed translates to base stealing at the next level, another big part of how good he could be.

 

I don't hate the pick, but I can certainly see why someone would be disappointed we took a 'low ceiling' guy in the Top 15 and being our first pick. I don't get too hung up who we draft because its easy to be a pessimist when most fail and many of the others get traded before they ever debut with us. I will start caring more a few years from now when he is valuable trade bait or close to the MLB level.

 

I have found that freaking out good or bad is almost always comical in the end. The most impactful draft picks seem to more often be guys no one cares about one way or the other because they weren't drafted in the first round. The people everyone hypes up and wanted become absolutely nothing. The scouting reports in retrospect are usually about as accurate as a mock drafts are .Of the guys we draft this year 9/10 probably A) Suck or B) Never actually play for us. This ain't the NBA/NFL where they might help us win the championship next year.

 

At 15, it's unlikely that we'll nab someone with both good hit tool and power tool. Most times we either get someone with a good hit tool and uninspiring/no power or someone with power but questionable hit tool. In such a scenario the former would be a better bet, IMO.

 

Mind you, I'm not exactly thrilled with this pick, although I don't hate it either. I can see the merit in it, but I don't exactly consider it a flashy pick either.

[clancyphile]

You could honestly say the same about a guy with power but questionable hit tool. Power is worthless if a guy can't hit enough to make much use of it. Just ask Hiura.

 

The difference is Frelick doesn't have questionable power, he literally doesn't have any power. His batting style doesn't really allow for there to be any future potential either. We will see how his bat translates to pro ball and the MLB. Maybe he can rack up some doubles down the road to have a good slugging percentage. We will also see how his speed translates to base stealing at the next level, another big part of how good he could be.

 

I don't hate the pick, but I can certainly see why someone would be disappointed we took a 'low ceiling' guy in the Top 15 and being our first pick. I don't get too hung up who we draft because its easy to be a pessimist when most fail and many of the others get traded before they ever debut with us. I will start caring more a few years from now when he is valuable trade bait or close to the MLB level.

 

I have found that freaking out good or bad is almost always comical in the end. The most impactful draft picks seem to more often be guys no one cares about one way or the other because they weren't drafted in the first round. The people everyone hypes up and wanted become absolutely nothing. The scouting reports in retrospect are usually about as accurate as a mock drafts are .Of the guys we draft this year 9/10 probably A) Suck or B) Never actually play for us. This ain't the NBA/NFL where they might help us win the championship next year.

 

31st round, 2012: Barely commented on in the discussion thread (viewtopic.php?f=69&t=28291). Broke out with a dominating year in 2015, still widely dismissed...

 

2016: Came up, did some time in the bullpen.

2017: Shuttled between AAA and MLB, then took a rotation spot.

2018: In the rotation, missed time with Tommy John

2019: Missed time with Tommy John, dominant bullpen run.

2020: Back to the rotation

2021: Key member of bullpen.

 

Just some guy named Brent Suter...

 

Frelick seemed underwhelming at first, but then I re-thought based on the "launch angle" fad and thinking about all the shifting being done.

 

How do you beat shifts when the ball is dead? You get players who make them very counter-productive, not only because they can hit to all fields, but because they are also capable of doing things on the basepaths. If you know a Frelick type is a serious threat to steal, that also messes up a shift, because you HAVE to cover the bases he might try to steal.

 

The key here is for the Brewers to NOT mess up his swing by trying to "launch angle" it (see Hiura). The same goes for Black as well.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Every year there are folks who are certain that their browsing of some short video clips and 30 word scouting blurbs give them the expertise to know that the front office has FAILED! to make the right choice. It's fun to follow the draft, but let's not pretend that we know more than we do.

 

Enough MLB draftees fail that these folks are sometimes right, but right for the wrong reason IMO. I myself had strong opinions that Prince Fielder was too fat...a prominent poster was certain that Ryan Braun had a hitch in his swing and would never amount to much. Jimmy Nelson was too boring. The list goes on and on.

 

There's obviously risk, as there always will be in the MLB draft. There's years that fifteen of the first twenty picks amount to very little, though those guys had scouts drooling over tools and potential. So sure, say what you don't like, or what you do, but have your say and be done with it, and remember that none of us can be certain about how this will play out for years.

[Jopal78]

Altuve is a little guy (5'6") and never hit more than 10 homers in a season in the minor leagues, yet nobody would argue now he doesn't have adequate power

[brewcrewdue80]

The only thing I dislike about the selection is the 'perceived' ceiling of him. If things start going wrong or he develops a hole in their bat it won't take much for him to be AAAA fodder at best. It isn't much different from someone like Rickie Weeks. Difference is Weeks had power to make up for the loss of his high contact ability. Frelick is a one trick pony. He needs to hit and he needs to get walks...he has no power potential if he isn't above average hitting/getting on base.

 

Don't get me wrong, I love a guy like Frelick IF he can actually be an elite contact hitter at the MLB level and not strike out much. He would be a great guy at the top of the order. He just doesn't have much room for error with the lack of power (and really unlikely he magically finds some at the venture/his size).

 

You could honestly say the same about a guy with power but questionable hit tool. Power is worthless if a guy can't hit enough to make much use of it. Just ask Hiura.

 

Hiura wasn't drafted as a power hitter. He was drafted as a pure hitter with elite bat speed as a 2b. Bat speed that could if launched correctly give him 20s HR power for a 2b while carrying a cool .300BA easy. The Brewers and he literally ruined his hit tool. I remember there was a piece/comment from one of those highly regarded prospect guys who said Hiura had a higher batting profile than Tatis Jr to stick with the hit tool.

Now mendoza line is embarrassing Mendoza when describing Hiura's hit ability.

[brewcrewdue80]

Altuve is a little guy (5'6") and never hit more than 10 homers in a season in the minor leagues, yet nobody would argue now he doesn't have adequate power

To be fair Altuve wasn't reaching 650ABs consistently while down in the minors. He has 38 more PAs than the highest Brewer does which is like a full weeks worth more chances to reach his number. Guy has 6000+ career PAs and 153HRs to show for it. Plus Houston has some cheat codes happening at home.

[MrTPlush]

Here is a fun comp between two 5'9" guys, Urias grades are post 2018 when he was a top prospect.

 

Hit: Luis Urias 70 / Sal Frelick 60

Power: 45 / 45

Run: 50 / 70

Arm: 55 / 50

Field: 60 / 55

Overall: 55 / 55

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Here is a fun comp between two 5'9" guys, Urias grades are post 2018 when he was a top prospect.

 

Hit: Luis Urias 70 / Sal Frelick 60

Power: 45 / 45

Run: 50 / 70

Arm: 55 / 50

Field: 60 / 55

Overall: 55 / 55

 

Is that the same Luis Urias who has shown plenty of power to function as a starting corner infielder on a contending team as a 24-year-old?

 

In all seriousness, this is very interesting. The biggest knock on Urias when the Brewers acquired him was a perceived "lack of power". He may never be that prototypical 35 HR guy teams are looking for at 3B, but he's shown 25 HR power, and will hopefully have the .280+ average to match eventually.

[brewcrewdue80]

Here is a fun comp between two 5'9" guys, Urias grades are post 2018 when he was a top prospect.

 

Hit: Luis Urias 70 / Sal Frelick 60

Power: 45 / 45

Run: 50 / 70

Arm: 55 / 50

Field: 60 / 55

Overall: 55 / 55

 

Somewhat relevant. But Urias was an unknown that climbed through the minors to earn that designation with a wood bat. It'll be interesting to see how quickly Sal adjusts to the wooden bat plus professional pitching.

[Eye Black]

I wonder if peak Adam Eaton isn’t a terrible comp for what you hope Sal Frelick becomes?

 

I think with the addition of Frelick and Black the Brewers have some exciting hitters in their early 20s that are going to put a lot of pressure/stressful at bats on opposing pitchers as they work their way through the minors.

[sveumrules]

Ironically MrTPlush, Frelick sort of reminds me a little bit of Nyjer Morgan, although it appears Frelick should have more power to drive it to the gaps for doubles.

 

Is Nyjer Morgan the type of talent this team should be drafting in the first round. At this point in the draft they should have gone with someone with more upside and no it means nothing to me that he was mocked to go this high.

 

So Wicks getting mocked to the Brewers meant there was a 90% chance he was our pick, but Sal getting mocked consistently in the Top 10 means nothing? Gotcha.

 

Nyjer posted 7 WAR over the course of his career.

 

Zero players picked 15th or later in the first round from 2015 to present have posted seven WAR as of yet, only two from 2014 (Chapman & Flaherty) because these things take time.

 

In the ten drafts prior here are the number of players drafted 15th or later in the first round to crack 7 WAR in their career...

 

2013: 5 of 25 picks

2012: 10 of 46 picks

2011: 7 of 46 picks

2010: 5 of 36 picks

2009: 7 of 35 picks

2008: 8 of 32 picks

2007: 6 of 50 picks

2006: 4 of 30 picks

2005: 6 of 34 picks

2004: 7 of 27 picks

 

TOTAL: 65 of 388 (16.8%) picks means about 6 or 7 guys per year drafted 15th or later in the first round ever have a career as good as Tony Plush.

 

Among those 65 seven or more WAR players there were 22 college pitchers, 15 HS position players, 13 HS pitchers, 12 college position players, 2 JC position players & 1 JC pitcher.

[brewcrewdue80]

I think with the addition of Frelick and Black the Brewers have some exciting hitters in their early 20s that are going to put a lot of pressure/stressful at bats on opposing pitchers as they work their way through the minors.

 

Lost in my comments on the selections is just this. How nice will it be to have tough outs where you don't know what might happen in the AB. Last two games Hiura and JBJ came to bat in 9th inning and all you assumed was about to happen was a K.

[MrTPlush]

Here is a fun comp between two 5'9" guys, Urias grades are post 2018 when he was a top prospect.

 

Hit: Luis Urias 70 / Sal Frelick 60

Power: 45 / 45

Run: 50 / 70

Arm: 55 / 50

Field: 60 / 55

Overall: 55 / 55

 

Somewhat relevant. But Urias was an unknown that climbed through the minors to earn that designation with a wood bat. It'll be interesting to see how quickly Sal adjusts to the wooden bat plus professional pitching.

 

Correct, but even despite that Urias still doesn't look to be ending up near what was once thought. Not sure he will ever be near a 70 hit tool, his power certainly seems to be more than 45, and his 60 field was probably a bit to bullish (though that was based more on him playing 2nd).

[MrTPlush]

I wonder if peak Adam Eaton isn’t a terrible comp for what you hope Sal Frelick becomes?

 

I think with the addition of Frelick and Black the Brewers have some exciting hitters in their early 20s that are going to put a lot of pressure/stressful at bats on opposing pitchers as they work their way through the minors.

 

My initial thought was a guy who hits .280/.360/.400/.760...as far as expected ceiling if all works out. Adam Eaton is disturbingly close to that....so personally, I would say that is a fantastic comp. haha

[homer]

I don't know if you can use current roster makeup as a reason to draft a certain type of player. When we drafted Corey Ray everyone was clamoring about getting a pitcher and now five years later we have three starting pitchers in the all-star game. Best case is these two are MLB ready in like three years. A lot can happen between now and then - Joe Gray and Garrett Mitchell might be all-stars for all we know. You get the best player(s) available and see how things shake out later on.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't know if you can use current roster makeup as a reason to draft a certain type of player. When we drafted Corey Ray everyone was clamoring about getting a pitcher and now five years later we have three starting pitchers in the all-star game. Best case is these two are MLB ready in like three years. A lot can happen between now and then - Joe Gray and Garrett Mitchell might be all-stars for all we know. You get the best player(s) available and see how things shake out later on.

 

Exactly. For all we know, Urias and Hiura or Tellez could be on their way to the All Star Game at this time next year, and we'll have the corner infield locked down for the net half decade.

[snoogans8056]

I've seen the Brewers chase after high upside talent early in the draft and fail miserably. I prefer they go the high floor route and then take some chances on risky talent later. I counted 9 prospects in the draft that had a 60 grade hit tool according to MLB Pipeline and we drafted 2 of them so far. We could possibly grab a 3rd when we're up again in 15 picks! I couldn't be more happy with how this has played out.

 

There wasn't a single mock draft that had Frelick making it to us and people are acting like we took a giant reach.

 

Who is left with that 60 hit tool? Would be neat to see as we get closer to our pick.

 

Stovall and Zavala? They both seem to be the same players we just drafted.

[Bnowell4evr]

I've seen the Brewers chase after high upside talent early in the draft and fail miserably. I prefer they go the high floor route and then take some chances on risky talent later. I counted 9 prospects in the draft that had a 60 grade hit tool according to MLB Pipeline and we drafted 2 of them so far. We could possibly grab a 3rd when we're up again in 15 picks! I couldn't be more happy with how this has played out.

 

There wasn't a single mock draft that had Frelick making it to us and people are acting like we took a giant reach.

 

Who is left with that 60 hit tool? Would be neat to see as we get closer to our pick.

 

Stovall and Zavala? They both seem to be the same players we just drafted.

 

Connor Norby as well.

[TURBO]

Just saw we took Frelick with Watson still on the board. Either he is unsignable or Milwaukee is taking Ls all over tonight SMH. Our farm system is 29th ranked. Maybe it’s time to deviate from the player model we lean so heavily on apparently hmmm.

 

We've graduated or traded for Narvaez, Hiura, Adames, Urias, Yelich, Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Houser, Hader, Williams, Suter & won the 7th most games in MLB over the last four years.

 

29th ranked farm or not, Ashby, Small, Mitchell & Turang are all due to start coming up over the next couple years & look like potential MLB contributors at this point.

 

The models are working just fine.

 

 

Yet we still don't have a 1B or 3B in that model system you speak of.