Cubs fire sale

[SoCalBrewfan]

San Diego should not be desperate, despite a very likely play-in WC game this year; the team is in a good position because lots of key players are still young, cheap, and even improving. They have a strong system though it's maybe a bit top heavy, and could probably move some second tier guys for rentals without blowing up their long term. (Or maybe not...if you believe fan graphs, there's a substantial gap between their four top 100 guys and the next tier who are 40+ FV...the Brewers OTOH have like eight players who are 45 or 45+.) I don't know how they should approach the deadline, honestly...it seems unlikely that they'd miss the WC but challenging to win the division outright, so how much resources should you spend for a playoff run? Hosmer is one more glaring weakness, but that contract is a doozy. How much do you spend for a pitcher assuming some of the injured guys will be back? Also, their best prospect is an infielder but they look to be pretty set at ss, 2b, and 3b. Abrams could be a valuable piece but probably you get better return in the offseason. Do you instead move Machado or Cronenworth at some point and promote Abrams? Fun times.

 

The Cubs and their non dynasty is an interesting thing. I would have imagined that the strong core of young position players would have led to sustained success, moreso than a strong young pitching staff, because position players tend to be less volatile and I would have assumed the Cubs had plenty of resources to buy pitchers. That should have been true I think, but they really didn't ever deliver on that promise after their WS. The Brewers look to have the opposite situation, with strong pitching but needing to fill in position players, so it's interesting to see how this plays out going forward.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Cubs and other NL Central teams will wait to see how the Brewers finish off their July schedule before determining whether or not to sell or hold at the deadline....if the Brewers scuffle the division is wide open for a mediocre roster to wind up earning a NLDS berth, and that postseason path is much more realistic than catching the Padres/Dodgers/Giants for one of those wild card berths.

 

I think we as Brewer fans bought too much or even more into this Cubs' young position player corps as all being good/great than many Cub fans themselves. To be honest the Cubs won the WS because Bryant played at an MVP level that season (he is still good, but hasn't been close to the same player since then) and they got key contributions from veterans like Zobrist and Fowler, plus great pitching from prime Arrieta. Many of their other homegrown or acquired young talent never took the next step from being replacement level MLB players to good or even elite. For all the talk about how well Theo and company rebuilt the Cubs' org from the ground up into a competent and well-run big market machine, their downfall has been a failure to develop enough of their own talent to sustain being an elite team like the Dodgers have - and the fact the Ricketts have poured a fortune into the club outside of team payroll (buying the team, self-funding wrigley renovations, buying and developing much of the surrounding properties, etc) means they don't have near the deep pockets as other big market clubs to continuously buy themselves out of roster issues.

[umphrey]

The Cubs already pretty much called themselves sellers. Its just a matter of getting the best deal and thinking about potentially offering a long term contract.

[TURBO]

Like others have said, I'll believe it when I see it.

 

I can't imagine what kind of hit they will take from their fans if they move Rizzo and or Bryant.

[KeithStone53151]

Like others have said, I'll believe it when I see it.

 

I can't imagine what kind of hit they will take from their fans if they move Rizzo and or Bryant.

 

Yes they'll get some serious boos if they do. I don't think it woudl make sense to only move one guy. They need to go big on either an allin or a sale this deadline. Especially with Rizzo considering a QO would not be smart for the Cubs. They could pretty fair haul trading all 3 dudes. They could even expand with Contreras and go full sell and try to set up a 3 year rebuild.

[PeaveyFury]

They should do the full sale and deal with the short-term fallout, but they'll be scared that the large bandwagon component to their fanbase that became Cubs fans circa 2015 won't understand the benefits/reasons for doing so. As such, I expect them to do the most Cubs-like sale off possible, which IMO means they'll only sell on Kimbrel and be left with QOs to Bryant/Rizzo/Baez.

[rickh150]

With the Cubs easy schedule, they could easily be back in the race come the end of July. I figure either Cubs or Cards, if not both, will be a part of the NL Central race.

[KeithStone53151]

With the Cubs easy schedule, they could easily be back in the race come the end of July. I figure either Cubs or Cards, if not both, will be a part of the NL Central race.

 

This is super fair. They haven't had their Rockies/Dbacks layup wins yet whereas we've had all of ours. They certainly can start weighing offers in a wait and see mode and make decisions the last few days of the month.

[umphrey]

At 8 games back and 4% playoff odds, the only way to have a chance is to become heavy buyers

[Jopal78]

Like others have said, I'll believe it when I see it.

 

I can't imagine what kind of hit they will take from their fans if they move Rizzo and or Bryant.

 

I believe Bryant has stated his intention to elect free agency and is not going to consider an extension before declaring free agency; thus if they don’t trade him they’ll be left with only a draft pick somewhere between #75-80 overall when he rejects the QO and goes elsewhere.

 

They’ll trade him and the only fan blowback will be the realization they’re tossing in the towel on 2021.

 

As for the others, I don’t think Jed Hoyer is dumb and will just let tons of talent walk in free agency. And ownership with their entertainment district now surrounding Wrigley most likely will put some degree of pressure on the front office to field a winning team so cash continues to flow into the entertainment district. (Kind of makes you wonder what will happen to the entertainment district around Lambeau when their golden age of quarterback play eventually ends)

[Fear The Chorizo]

Boras is still Bryant's agent, right? Based on the rift between Bryant's team and the Cubs with how they delayed starting his service time to delay his free agency by at least 1 year (in Bryant's team's opinion) to wait until the MLB team was on the upswing, there's no way they're working out an extension until he hits free agency and the only way he stays a Cub is if they are the highest bidder.

 

With respect to Rizzo, I can see him staying with the Cubs or resigning with them even if he's dealt at the deadline because of how much he is revered by both the Cubs and their fanbase. One item specific to Rizzo (and frankly any other potential trade candidates) is whether they have been vaccinated for COVID yet or not. This isn't about personal choice to get jabbed or not, but wondering if teams just over the thresholds of vaccinated personnel would be more hesitant in trading for a player like Rizzo that we know isn't vaccinated if it would drop the team back down to the level where more restrictive COVID protocols and testing would be necessary for the whole team again.

 

At 8 games back and 4% playoff odds, the only way to have a chance is to become heavy buyers

 

That largely depends on how the Brewers play coming out of the break - the Brewers open with 3 against the Reds and have a pretty light schedule through end of July, while the Cubs have 6 against the Dbacks and series with the Cardinals and Reds....If the Brewers fall on their face and the Cubs have a mini hot streak that 8 game deficit could easily get cut in half or more for the Cubs before they would reach a point of selling. Ultimately I think they do sell, but they will be in a holding pattern for the next week or so of games to see how things shape up.

[Jopal78]

 

That largely depends on how the Brewers play coming out of the break - the Brewers open with 3 against the Reds and have a pretty light schedule through end of July, while the Cubs have 6 against the Dbacks and series with the Cardinals and Reds....If the Brewers fall on their face and the Cubs have a mini hot streak that 8 game deficit could easily get cut in half or more for the Cubs before they would reach a point of selling. Ultimately I think they do sell, but they will be in a holding pattern for the next week or so of games to see how things shape up.

 

How the Brewers play is nearly immaterial to the Cubs at this point. Zach Davies has a FIP of 4.87 and averages less than 5 innings per start, Trevor Williams has a FIP of 4.90 and averages less than 5 innings per start, Arrieta (DL) has a FIP of 5.98 and averages less than 5 innings per start. Alzolay has a FIP of 5.10 but averages 5 and 2/3 innings per start, however he's at 77 innings this year after pitching 22 last year and 83 in 2019. By August they will probably be trying to limit his innings.

 

They don't have the pitching to hang, unless all of their starters besides Hendricks start pitching much better and deeper into games.

[Lathund]

That largely depends on how the Brewers play coming out of the break - the Brewers open with 3 against the Reds and have a pretty light schedule through end of July, while the Cubs have 6 against the Dbacks and series with the Cardinals and Reds....If the Brewers fall on their face and the Cubs have a mini hot streak that 8 game deficit could easily get cut in half or more for the Cubs before they would reach a point of selling. Ultimately I think they do sell, but they will be in a holding pattern for the next week or so of games to see how things shape up.

 

The problem for the Cubs isn't just that they're 8 games back, it's that they're tied with one team, have two in front, and likely no wild card spot to compete for. If the Brewers fall on their face, then that means the Reds won't have fallen on theirs. Cubs need the Brewers and Reds to collapse, and also to match the Cardinals. Any one of those on its own is not unreasonable, but all 3 at once?

[PeaveyFury]

That largely depends on how the Brewers play coming out of the break - the Brewers open with 3 against the Reds and have a pretty light schedule through end of July, while the Cubs have 6 against the Dbacks and series with the Cardinals and Reds....If the Brewers fall on their face and the Cubs have a mini hot streak that 8 game deficit could easily get cut in half or more for the Cubs before they would reach a point of selling. Ultimately I think they do sell, but they will be in a holding pattern for the next week or so of games to see how things shape up.

 

The problem for the Cubs isn't just that they're 8 games back, it's that they're tied with one team, have two in front, and likely no wild card spot to compete for. If the Brewers fall on their face, then that means the Reds won't have fallen on theirs. Cubs need the Brewers and Reds to collapse, and also to match the Cardinals. Any one of those on its own is not unreasonable, but all 3 at once?

 

....and they also need all of that to basically start to happen within the next two weeks.

 

Yeah, the Cubs could win a few over the next week and climb a bit, but I'm not sure they're going to get definitive enough indicators to make any decision other than the one to sell in the short time left before the deadline.

[Fear The Chorizo]

That largely depends on how the Brewers play coming out of the break - the Brewers open with 3 against the Reds and have a pretty light schedule through end of July, while the Cubs have 6 against the Dbacks and series with the Cardinals and Reds....If the Brewers fall on their face and the Cubs have a mini hot streak that 8 game deficit could easily get cut in half or more for the Cubs before they would reach a point of selling. Ultimately I think they do sell, but they will be in a holding pattern for the next week or so of games to see how things shape up.

 

The problem for the Cubs isn't just that they're 8 games back, it's that they're tied with one team, have two in front, and likely no wild card spot to compete for. If the Brewers fall on their face, then that means the Reds won't have fallen on theirs. Cubs need the Brewers and Reds to collapse, and also to match the Cardinals. Any one of those on its own is not unreasonable, but all 3 at once?

 

This line of standings thinking is given constantly as reasons why teams can't crawl out of a hole, particularly late in the season...but huge swings in the standings happen often when they are aided by a team atop them hitting a wall over a couple weeks - I guess my point is despite their 8 game deficit, I think the Cubs could still find themselves in the mix mainly because the team they are 8 games behind has shown so far this season that it really struggles offensively, and the other NL Central teams are also seriously flawed. I love the Brewers and root for them to death, but being 8 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central is a far easier hill to envision climbing than being 8+ games behind the Dodgers/Padres/Giants - two of those teams having much better rosters in terms of talent level than Milwaukee. Keep in mind the Brewers' current division lead was built on the back of a very unlikely 11 game winning streak - particularly for a team with an offense firmly entrenched towards the bottom of MLB statistically. The Cubs fell apart with an 11 game losing streak during this same period - no matter how great or bad teams are, those type of events just don't happen often and in particular don't happen simultaneously.

 

I do think the Cubs ultimately wind up being sellers given their current spot in the standings, poor starting pitching, and just how many free agents to be currently on their roster, but I think it won't happen until right at the end of the deadline which will limit how many players they find a way to deal - which would make it a soft sell and could be the best thing for the Brewers longterm.

[markedman5]

Joc Pederson traded to Braves

[Jopal78]

Joc Pederson traded to Braves

 

Gives an idea of value. Braves 12th best prospect

[wildcat2237]

Joc Pederson traded to Braves

 

 

The Chubs really need a fire sale. Sadly, it looks like their management has smarted up to starting the sale early. I was really hoping they would hold out hope with a bad team and let some guys walk for nothing. Bummer. They will be a force again in 2-4 years.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Joc Pederson traded to Braves

 

That may actually be perceived as buying from the Cubs standpoint.

[nate82]

Joc Pederson traded to Braves

 

Gives an idea of value. Braves 12th best prospect

 

The Braves gave up a 40+ FV player who is in A+.

 

The Brewers equivalent would be the following:

Zavier Warren, Joe Gray Jr., Hedbert Perez, David Hamilton, Freddy Zamora, Antoine Kelly, Tristen Lutz, Max Lazar and Eduardo Garcia.

[Simba2020]

Joc Pederson traded to Braves

 

Gives an idea of value. Braves 12th best prospect

I highly doubt he'd be a 12th ranked prospect today. A former 24th round draftee, 23 years old hitting .207 in A+ ball. Baseball America had him at #18 before the season. Wouldn't be surprised if he was in the 25 range right now.

[Jopal78]

Joc Pederson traded to Braves

 

Gives an idea of value. Braves 12th best prospect

I highly doubt he'd be a 12th ranked prospect today. A former 24th round draftee, 23 years old hitting .207 in A+ ball. Baseball America had him at #18 before the season. Wouldn't be surprised if he was in the 25 range right now.

 

Probably no different than Lutz in the Brewers system. Intriguing power bat, needs a lot of refinement in other areas.

[nate82]

 

Probably no different than Lutz in the Brewers system. Intriguing power bat, needs a lot of refinement in other areas.

 

Similar yes but he is having the same type of season that Lutz is having in A+ while Lutz is in AA. I would give the edge to Lutz because of where he is at but yes they are very similar players. Basically the Cubs got a lottery ticket for Pederson.

[Mr Southpaw]

mlb.com has Bryce Ball listed as the Cubs 29th best prospect.

[TURBO]

Bryant talks heating up, once the Nats and Mets get inviolved, we can probably forget it...Read this morning that the Yankees are interested too. Wasn't going to happen for the Brewers anyway, but it was a fun thought.

 

Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that the Nationals are among the teams interested in Kris Bryant.

Heyman says that the Nats don't want to trade top pitching prospects Cade Cavalli or Jackson Rutledge, though, so it's unclear whether the two sides would be able to find a fit. Washington was connected to Bryant over the offseason, as well, but nothing ever seemed close to getting done at the time. The Mets are also expected to make a play for Bryant.

 

RELATED: Washington Nationals

SOURCE: Jon Heyman on Twitter

Jul 16, 2021, 12:36 PM ET