Brewers trade for 1B Rowdy Tellez from Blue Jays

[DR28]

Really liking our infield for at least the next couple seasons.

 

Tellez - 1B

Wong - 2B

Adames - SS

Urias - 3B

 

Solid hitters and some great D.

[rickh150]

I mean steamers projects (and I’m not a projection lover) at like .840 OPS the next three years.

 

Seems like he has potential to be a useful bat and there is a lot of reason to believe that outcome is highly probable.

 

If that turns out to be the case score another one for Stearns but I will believe it when I see it.

 

I'd think you'd have seen enough scores for Stearns that you'd stop constantly doubting him.

 

I think we’ve seen a lot of really good seasons with Stearns at the helm; three straight post seasons have been great and 2018 was super. That being said, there have been several questionable, repeat questionable, trades and pick ups. Now, I might give him a bit more or less leeway than another, but we’ve “seen enough scores” to at least question moves here while retain one’s overall approval of Stearns.

[PeaveyFury]

I think we’ve seen a lot of really good seasons with Stearns at the helm; three straight post seasons have been great and 2018 was super. That being said, there have been several questionable, repeat questionable, trades and pick ups...... to at least question moves here while retain one’s overall approval of Stearns.

 

The batting average is extremely high in his favor.

 

And as you'll note in nearly EVERY transaction thread, Stearns DOES NOT have the approval of the poster I was responding to.

[CheezWizHed]

I mean steamers projects (and I’m not a projection lover) at like .840 OPS the next three years.

 

Seems like he has potential to be a useful bat and there is a lot of reason to believe that outcome is highly probable.

 

If that turns out to be the case score another one for Stearns but I will believe it when I see it.

 

I'm scratching my head over that projection too... His minor league numbers certainly don't support it:

 

4 years at AAA (XXXX ABs): 259/334/418/752

Career MiLB (XXXX ABs): 276/351/447/797

 

His last two years at AAA were above 1000 OPS (plus two small sample 2018/2019 good stints at the MLB level), so maybe the lightbulb clicked on for him recently? Low risk anyway, so why not?

 

Plus even if he hits 750 OPS it is a win for us. Paul Goldschmidt is the 18th best 1B at 746. Jesus Aguilar is #9 at 794. 750 would put him right in the average range.

[monty57]

Looking through the raw stats, Tellez and Vogelbach are remarkably similar players. One thing that I think may skew things in Tellez's favor is that he's not a platoon player. Vogelbach hits righties a little better than Tellez, but he needs to be sat down vs LHP, whereas Tellez has actually hit LHP a little better than RHP over his career.

 

Having to platoon your first baseman forces you to build your roster differently than you would if you don't have to platoon your first baseman, so if I had to choose one of them right now, I'd take Tellez. Fortunately, that decision doesn't have to be made right now, and the Brewers will get the rest of this year to see how he looks. The decision that needs to be made now is what to do with Hiura. A platoon doesn't make sense since both Hiura and Tellez hit both handed pitching around the same (leaning to reverse splits for both of them). They obviously don't have a lot of faith in Hiura right now, or they wouldn't have sent him to the minors twice and then traded for Tellez. It would seem that one of Hiura/Tellez will be sent to AAA so both of them can be everyday players.

[brewers888]

I think we’ve seen a lot of really good seasons with Stearns at the helm; three straight post seasons have been great and 2018 was super. That being said, there have been several questionable, repeat questionable, trades and pick ups...... to at least question moves here while retain one’s overall approval of Stearns.

 

The batting average is extremely high in his favor.

 

And as you'll note in nearly EVERY transaction thread, Stearns DOES NOT have the approval of the poster I was responding to.

 

Stearns does have my approval overall but I question moves when they are made. Only time will tell if this was a good acquisition but I am underwhelmed and think we need a bigger offensive upgrade.

[PeaveyFury]

but I question moves when they are made.

 

Indeed.

[pacopete4]

but I question moves when they are made.

 

Indeed.

 

It’s the questioning of every move as if it’s the worst move ever made and then never owning up to it when many of these moves end up helping the Brewers win ballgames for me.

[Eye Black]

I mean steamers projects (and I’m not a projection lover) at like .840 OPS the next three years.

 

Seems like he has potential to be a useful bat and there is a lot of reason to believe that outcome is highly probable.

 

If that turns out to be the case score another one for Stearns but I will believe it when I see it.

 

I'm scratching my head over that projection too... His minor league numbers certainly don't support it:

 

4 years at AAA (XXXX ABs): 259/334/418/752

Career MiLB (XXXX ABs): 276/351/447/797

 

His last two years at AAA were above 1000 OPS (plus two small sample 2018/2019 good stints at the MLB level), so maybe the lightbulb clicked on for him recently? Low risk anyway, so why not?

 

Plus even if he hits 750 OPS it is a win for us. Paul Goldschmidt is the 18th best 1B at 746. Jesus Aguilar is #9 at 794. 750 would put him right in the average range.

Projection Systems do seem to like Rowdy more than I would’ve guessed. Prior to the season Clay Davenport’s system had him projected to be a .263 BA / .334 OBP / .511 SLG hitter this season. His rest of season projections have cooled a bit now (.237/.303/.444). Even though a .444 slugging isn’t great for a 1B, it’s sort of amazing there are only a dozen qualified 1B in baseball slugging better than that this season.

[brewers888]

I look forward to eating crow and being wrong but how can anyone take these projections seriously that would have Rowdy with an OPS over .800.

[PeaveyFury]

I look forward to eating crow and being wrong but how can anyone take these projections seriously that would have Rowdy with an OPS over .800.

 

I mean, he did last year, so it's not all that much of a reach to think he could be in that range.

[Lathund]

Projection systems these days work on a lot more than slash lines. On a very basic level, two identical slash lines but with different K:BB ratios won't be projected the same, as plate discipline is a skill that translates well when moving up levels, and is harder to improve, than many others. Then even when it comes to those stats, you can get more specific and look at expected vs actual strikeouts. Like for instance, the rate of swinging strikes is better at predicting future strikeout rate than actual strikeout rate is. And going further still, when you can incorporate statcast data into projections, you get even more opportunities to identify breakouts. It won't ever be a tool that's fully reliable on an individual level, because we are after all dealing with humans and progress is rarely linear. Just that there is a methodology behind those good or bad projections that on the surface don't make sense. Some won't work out, but if you consistently go with the better projections, you'll do better overall than doing it the opposite way.

 

Anyway, with Tellez (As was the case with Garcia) I suspect the the exit velocity and hard contact rates he makes is a big part of why they wanted him, you expect it to translate into better results at some point. But I also like that they look at various different approaches to hitting. Narvaez for example has some of the worst exit velocity and hard hit rates in the game, yet he is an excellent hitter. I've said it before, I believe this is one of the most "Moneyball" front offices in the game; in the sense that they don't go for a specific type of player, or skillset, necessarily, but they will go for players whose skillset is undervalued or whose contract/roster situation makes them undervalued. I'm sure they have their preferences (Like improving on defense this past offseason) but will sidestep that in favor of the biggest improvement, regardless of how it comes about. Which is how a front office that some complain about being obsessed with Craig Counsell-like utility infielders also end up with Shaw & Moustakas at 2B, Daniel Vogelbach and Rowdy Tellez on the same roster, and sticking with multiple 1B only (Or mostly) players in Aguilar/Thames for many years and so on.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Great post Lat. The Brewers are kind of like the island of misfit toys but the pieces are working, although the Big 3 in the rotation and the back end of the bullpen have made up for the offensive warts.

 

I think we will look back on 2021 and say Adames was the biggest acquisition and the Grisham trade slowly isn’t looking as bad.

 

Go Brew!!!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I look forward to eating crow and being wrong but how can anyone take these projections seriously that would have Rowdy with an OPS over .800.

 

Thankfully these projections are based on logic and career numbers, and not 130 rough plate appearances. Tellez has always hit. He hit in the minors. He hit as a rookie call-up in 2018. He hit (albeit not as well, although HR numbers were good) in a longer audition in 2019. He hit very well last year. You are seeing something negative that you apparently want to see with him that the numbers and projections simply don't support.

[CheezWizHed]

I look forward to eating crow and being wrong but how can anyone take these projections seriously that would have Rowdy with an OPS over .800.

 

Thankfully these projections are based on logic and career numbers, and not 130 rough plate appearances. Tellez has always hit. He hit in the minors. He hit as a rookie call-up in 2018. He hit (albeit not as well, although HR numbers were good) in a longer audition in 2019. He hit very well last year. You are seeing something negative that you apparently want to see with him that the numbers and projections simply don't support.

 

I don't think a 752 OPS at AAA and under 800 in his minor league career constitutes as a "hitter". As I mentioned previously, he did well the last two years (over 1.000 OPS), but when I look at his MiLB career, I don't see a hitter profile. He does OK, but we have AAAA players hitting 900-1000 OPS at AAA, but can't hit a lick at the MLB level.

 

Saying he has "always" hit is not correct. A late bloomer, perhaps.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I look forward to eating crow and being wrong but how can anyone take these projections seriously that would have Rowdy with an OPS over .800.

 

Thankfully these projections are based on logic and career numbers, and not 130 rough plate appearances. Tellez has always hit. He hit in the minors. He hit as a rookie call-up in 2018. He hit (albeit not as well, although HR numbers were good) in a longer audition in 2019. He hit very well last year. You are seeing something negative that you apparently want to see with him that the numbers and projections simply don't support.

 

I don't think a 752 OPS at AAA and under 800 in his minor league career constitutes as a "hitter". As I mentioned previously, he did well the last two years (over 1.000 OPS), but when I look at his MiLB career, I don't see a hitter profile. He does OK, but we have AAAA players hitting 900-1000 OPS at AAA, but can't hit a lick at the MLB level.

 

Saying he has "always" hit is not correct. A late bloomer, perhaps.

 

His minor league numbers are bogged down by a poor full 2017 season. Otherwise the stats are acceptable if not good. Nothing eye-popping, but solid.

[homer]

Anyway, with Tellez (As was the case with Garcia) I suspect the the exit velocity and hard contact rates he makes is a big part of why they wanted him, you expect it to translate into better results at some point. But I also like that they look at various different approaches to hitting. Narvaez for example has some of the worst exit velocity and hard hit rates in the game, yet he is an excellent hitter. I've said it before, I believe this is one of the most "Moneyball" front offices in the game; in the sense that they don't go for a specific type of player, or skillset, necessarily, but they will go for players whose skillset is undervalued or whose contract/roster situation makes them undervalued. I'm sure they have their preferences (Like improving on defense this past offseason) but will sidestep that in favor of the biggest improvement, regardless of how it comes about.

 

One of the interesting things for me to do is try to figure out what they see in a guy when they trade for him. So for Adames maybe they looked at his home/road splits. With Tellez, I think you hit it on the stat cast stuff. He does hit into a shift a lot so it's possible he never gets close to his xBA or xSLG but he hits the ball very hard. Maybe his luck just needs to turn a bit.

[StearnsFTW]

Hopefully Telez proves me wrong but all I see is another first baseman that will add little to nothing to our lineup that is clearly not good enough to compete with the upper echelon teams in the league. As for both him and Vogelbach being on the roster at the same time I just don't see a GM that values versatility over almost all else keeping two out of shape first basemen with no defensive value at all.

 

Find me the Brewers' record against winning teams.

 

I'll wait.

 

[CheezWizHed]

His minor league numbers are bogged down by a poor full 2017 season. Otherwise the stats are acceptable if not good. Nothing eye-popping, but solid.

They were also propped up by a really good 2016 season. Both were outliers of his norm. That is why I post averages.

- 2016 OPS = 917; 2017 OPS = 628

- Those two seasons still average about 773 (nearly equal numbers of ABs in each season)

- Career MiLB average: 797 (other seasons were in the 765-812 range)

 

MiLB players that can't hit over 800OPS and don't play defensive positions (C/SS/CF) don't normally translate well to the MLB. Like I said, maybe he figured something out recently... One can hope. He was a low-cost chance.

[Eye Black]

What’s interesting about his minor league stats is he had some solid wRC+ numbers despite the OPS looking less than impressive. He was also extremely young for most of the levels he played in the minors.

 

Here’s a look, understanding some of these are small samples (listed plate appearances at each level):

 

2013: Rookie / Age 18 (-1.4 AgeDiff) / 141 PA / .690 OPS / 105 wRC+

2014: Rookie / Age 19 (-1.3 AgeDiff) / 219 PA / .782 OPS / 125 wRC+

2014: Low-A / Age 19 (-2.5 AgeDiff) / 49 PA / .949 OPS / 176 wRC+

2015: Low-A / Age 20 (-1.4 AgeDiff) / 270 PA / .796 OPS / 130 wRC+

2015: High-A / Age 20 (-2.7 AgeDiff) / 131 PA / .811 OPS / 143 wRC+

2016: Double-A / Age 21 (-3.4 AgeDiff) / 514 PA / .917 OPS / 152 wRC+

2017: Triple-A / Age 22 (-4.7 AgeDiff) / 501 PA / .628 OPS / 73 wRC+

2018: Triple-A / Age 23 (-3.5 AgeDiff) / 444 PA / .765 OPS / 115 wRC+

2019: Triple-A / Age 24 (-2.9 AgeDiff) / 109 PA / 1.138 OPS / 186 wRC+

2021: Triple-A / Age 26 (-0.8 AgeDiff) / 55 PA / 1.038 OPS / 172 wRC+

 

Some of this appears due to the fact that several of the leagues he played in throughout the minors (Midwest League, Florida State League, Eastern League, International League), weren’t as OPS friendly as we find elsewhere in some of their counterpart leagues (i.e. California League, Texas League, Pacific Coast League).

[umphrey]

I’ll admit I know Tellez because of fantasy baseball. He was a trendy add last year because of statcast and was a popular sleeper this year because of statcast and a good small sample in MLB last year. He had an awful start to the year (0 for 25 or something) and got demoted and fell off the radar.

 

Anyway my point is people were buying a 2020 breakout supported by statcast and not 2017-2019 MiLB stats. Brewers probably had a lot more data but at least some similarity in their evaluation.

[MrTPlush]

I look forward to eating crow and being wrong but how can anyone take these projections seriously that would have Rowdy with an OPS over .800.

 

His career mark spread out over 4 seasons is .760...not that far from .800. Prior to his struggles this year it was well over .800.

 

He has enough power that .800 doesn't seem super unreasonable. Not sure he will hit enough or walk enough to push that into the mid .800s though.

[Jopal78]

Tellez might not be the slugger everyone is hoping for, but then again based on what Milwaukee gave up to get him they probably aren't expecting him to be.

 

While Trevor Richards pitched well for the Brewers and his loss thins out their depth a little, he's 86 games into his career and with his 4th organization. A useful player for sure, but not someone viewed as an important piece.

 

Bowden Francis is a college arm now five years out from being drafted but he's close to the major leagues, and most likely will get a shot at some point.

 

If Tellez ends up being a flop, its too bad but its not as though they gave up a key piece of their next generation of players.

[tmwiese55]

Brewers also seemed to use Richards a ton while they had him. One thing that popped into my head is they think he might hit a wall or fall off due to workload. He certainly was solid while he was here and helped win some games.

[CheezWizHed]

What’s interesting about his minor league stats is he had some solid wRC+ numbers despite the OPS looking less than impressive. He was also extremely young for most of the levels he played in the minors.

 

Here’s a look, understanding some of these are small samples (listed plate appearances at each level):

 

2013: Rookie / Age 18 (-1.4 AgeDiff) / 141 PA / .690 OPS / 105 wRC+

2014: Rookie / Age 19 (-1.3 AgeDiff) / 219 PA / .782 OPS / 125 wRC+

2014: Low-A / Age 19 (-2.5 AgeDiff) / 49 PA / .949 OPS / 176 wRC+

2015: Low-A / Age 20 (-1.4 AgeDiff) / 270 PA / .796 OPS / 130 wRC+

2015: High-A / Age 20 (-2.7 AgeDiff) / 131 PA / .811 OPS / 143 wRC+

2016: Double-A / Age 21 (-3.4 AgeDiff) / 514 PA / .917 OPS / 152 wRC+

2017: Triple-A / Age 22 (-4.7 AgeDiff) / 501 PA / .628 OPS / 73 wRC+

2018: Triple-A / Age 23 (-3.5 AgeDiff) / 444 PA / .765 OPS / 115 wRC+

2019: Triple-A / Age 24 (-2.9 AgeDiff) / 109 PA / 1.138 OPS / 186 wRC+

2021: Triple-A / Age 26 (-0.8 AgeDiff) / 55 PA / 1.038 OPS / 172 wRC+

 

Some of this appears due to the fact that several of the leagues he played in throughout the minors (Midwest League, Florida State League, Eastern League, International League), weren’t as OPS friendly as we find elsewhere in some of their counterpart leagues (i.e. California League, Texas League, Pacific Coast League).

 

I did see the age differential, which factors into the late bloomer hope. B

 

ut I didn't see wRC+ on milb.com or baseballreference for minor league stats. I wondered about how Buffalo was to hit at compared to Nashville, but wasn't sure where to look. What site did you use?

 

See? Now you are getting my hopes up again.