2021 NBA Finals: Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns BUCKS WIN THE TITLE!!!!

[OldSchoolSnapper]

My biggest issue with jrue is him taking so many bad tough shots the first two games, and plenty of other games. Game 5 and 6 of the last series and game 3 this series he was incredible, and most of his scoring comes off clean looks. The only guy who should be taking contested shots from beyond 10 feet on this team is Middleton and it still be considered a good look.

 

This doesn't provide any insight as to the length of the shot, but they are almost identically efficient at contested shots this playoffs.

 

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/shots-closest-defender/

 

Just going off the last game, there was a 2-min stretch where Jrue hit three 3s with a guy right in front of him. I think that Jrue and Khris are frustrating for the exact same reason. When they can shoot, they are elite players, but there are just a smidge too many 3-of-16 games mixed in for them to be considered top tier players.

[MrTPlush]

My definition of taking over a game isn't generically attached to how many points you score. More the ability to put the entire team on your back and do it all, notably late in a game. Giannis can't shoot threes that well, definitely not a guy who is going to drop a few in a short amount of time if you need it. You don't even want him trying it. He also misses a good chunk of FTs and its gotten pretty bad on the road in the playoffs. I would look at things a lot different if he was hitting 75%+ of his FTs. Instead it almost feels like Hack-A-Giannis many times.

 

Not trying to knock Giannis or say he is necessarily worse than a Kevin Durant, but he is not the kind of player that can do everything and you want him to have the ball in any situation. If the Bucks need scoring late in a game and need a guy to go look like Michael Jordan people are probably looking Middleton's way. Middleton is a more complete player who can do it all on the floor really well.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The issue I have with these kinds of statements is two-fold. One, you can essentially move the measuring stick anywhere you want it to to say that a player can't take over a game. And second, the threshold for taking over a game, using your definition, becomes basically like 7 guys who have ever played basketball. Michael Jordan, and Durant, who is arguably the most efficient, versatile scorer of the last 20 years.

 

With the game tied against Brooklyn in OT, we gave the ball to Giannis, who drove into the lane, threw up an off-balance shot and gave us the lead. It looks easier to do on the surface than hitting a 3, but it really isn't, and very few players can be depended upon the way Giannis is to "just go score, we need a basket." That was his 40th point of the night. If that's not taking over a game, nothing is.

 

His FTs are fair game. He's air-balled like 10 FTs in the playoffs and it is downright embarrassing. But in reality he is a 70% FT shooter that's hit some kind of mental block.

[adambr2]

I don't understand the mechanics behind free throw shooting to get why some big guys can do it and some are just trash at it. Brook Lopez is also a big goon with about 10% of the athleticism that Giannis has and he knocks them down just fine. There must be a far bigger mental aspect to free throw shooting than physical, but I've also heard that studies have shown that fan distraction has little to no influence on free throw shooting.

[FVBrewerFan]

Look for the Suns to adjust tomorrow night. After Giannis hammering them in the paint for the last game and a half, the soft double teams are over. They are going to brig a hard double every time he's in the paint, with a 3rd player lurking.

 

Bud has to know this, I'm sure. He needs to make Giannis understand he can't force it and pick up fouls, turn the ball over, etc. (Plus as the series goes on the refs won't give him so many calls every game.) Kick it out immediately when you see the hard double coming. BUT that doesn't mean they always need to take that shot. Work the ball around, and you can get it back to Giannis again in more space after you make the defense scramble. You also open up the lane for other guys cutting to the basket.

 

This sounds so simple, and at times they do this, but they need to be fully aware of the Suns game plan going in and be ready to adjust.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

studies have shown that fan distraction has little to no influence on free throw shooting.

 

I don't know how this could possibly be concluded. It would depend entirely on the individual. There is no arguing at this point that the counting got into Giannis's head. The same guy air-balling and bricking 55% of these is capable of swishing 8 in a row at home. And again, Giannis really is not a terrible FT shooter, he's not good, but he just became Shaq for about a month these playoffs.

[Baldkin]

studies have shown that fan distraction has little to no influence on free throw shooting.

 

I don't know how this could possibly be concluded. It would depend entirely on the individual. There is no arguing at this point that the counting got into Giannis's head. The same guy air-balling and bricking 55% of these is capable of swishing 8 in a row at home. And again, Giannis really is not a terrible FT shooter, he's not good, but he just became Shaq for about a month these playoffs.

 

Giannis shot 72% on the road and 65% at home from the FT line during the regular season.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

studies have shown that fan distraction has little to no influence on free throw shooting.

 

I don't know how this could possibly be concluded. It would depend entirely on the individual. There is no arguing at this point that the counting got into Giannis's head. The same guy air-balling and bricking 55% of these is capable of swishing 8 in a row at home. And again, Giannis really is not a terrible FT shooter, he's not good, but he just became Shaq for about a month these playoffs.

 

Giannis shot 72% on the road and 65% at home from the FT line during the regular season.

 

He was 68% FT shooter during the season and 57% during the playoffs...and I said the counting got into his head. I didn't say anything about him being a worst FT shooter on the road in Charlotte in February.

 

The count chants got into Giannis's head, I'm sorry but they just did. He still made some of the shots but it's clear as day it rattled him and he was getting embarrassed and out of sorts at the line.

[KeithStone53151]

Look for the Suns to adjust tomorrow night. After Giannis hammering them in the paint for the last game and a half, the soft double teams are over. They are going to brig a hard double every time he's in the paint, with a 3rd player lurking.

 

Bud has to know this, I'm sure. He needs to make Giannis understand he can't force it and pick up fouls, turn the ball over, etc. (Plus as the series goes on the refs won't give him so many calls every game.) Kick it out immediately when you see the hard double coming. BUT that doesn't mean they always need to take that shot. Work the ball around, and you can get it back to Giannis again in more space after you make the defense scramble. You also open up the lane for other guys cutting to the basket.

 

This sounds so simple, and at times they do this, but they need to be fully aware of the Suns game plan going in and be ready to adjust.

 

I agree with a good amount of this and don't specifically disagree with anything. It's so obvious but bud should be ready for an adjustment of some kind. They'd be stupid to roll the exact same game plan tomorrow. Changing how they defend giannis is super logical as well but it's hard to know exactly what they'll do.

 

They also will try to adjust offensively as well and probably try to do something to avoid ayton getting into foul trouble. It's still a mismatch when he's on the court, but the suns generally defend giannis better when ayton is there. Also, I noticed when ayton was out is when we primarily used giannis at the 5 and ran smaller. This allowed us to generally defend better while having a hefty size advantage over their 6'6 and under lineup. End point being, ayton staying out of foul trouble is a pretty big deal for the suns and should be a focus of theirs.

 

I also could see them trying to take better advantage of the pick game. We've been mostly switching, but often enough that's resulted in easy pass/dunks to ayton(yes again, ayton is critical for the suns). They should at this point know how we'll approach those and be able to find where we've made mistakes and try to exploit.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

In fact, if we're using his regular season stats as the baseline...he's 3% below his regular season FT split, at 62% for the playoffs.

 

On the road he is shooting 52% in the playoffs.

[adambr2]

No, but they were obviously still distracting him on the road before the counting became a thing. I don't know if it's so much the counting in his head as much as it might just be one of those really bad stretches. His free throw shooting stunk in every single home game in the Brooklyn series.

 

He's just seemed to have long stretches of real inconsistency at the line throughout the last couple seasons where he really struggles. Then he'll look like he has it figured out again for awhile and then he'll struggle again.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

He was missing them before the counting, but the counting is what made this a topic and a national headline that every single team's fans have followed. Then every single time he steps to the line, he has all this running through his head. He's a human being. I know BF likes to claim that clutch or whatever isn't a thing, but nobody is going to convince me that the fans, media, whoever you want to blame, didn't make this into a bigger thing than it was for Giannis.

 

My opinion is that it was probably another rough stretch of shooting that he just seems to periodically go through, and all of the compounding factors made it worse. I've never seen him air ball as many as he has in the last month. It's like he airs at least one every road game. I don't care how great he is or how mentally tough he is, air balling FTs is humiliating once. He's done it like 10 times, and in front of the guy who said he has "no skills."

[MrTPlush]

But was his missing the rim by 3 feet before?

 

The funny thing is, many of the misses are bad enough they actually get some favorable offensive rebounds. I think it was the Nets series where they grabbed like three of his in a game.

Edited July 13, 2021 by MrTPlush

[adambr2]

It's entirely possible. As you said, he's human, and some of the attempts have looked horrendous. I just think it's a really small sample and variation to conclude anything definitively. It's not like he's going 13 for 15 at home and 3 for 11 on the road.

 

The mental aspect of professional sports definitely exists and varies from human to human. I would guess there have been some closers in baseball that simply can't handle the pressure and environment of trying to close out games on the road and lose their composure entirely. And there are probably other ones that straight up feed off of the boos.

[homer]

studies have shown that fan distraction has little to no influence on free throw shooting.

 

I don't know how this could possibly be concluded. It would depend entirely on the individual. There is no arguing at this point that the counting got into Giannis's head. The same guy air-balling and bricking 55% of these is capable of swishing 8 in a row at home. And again, Giannis really is not a terrible FT shooter, he's not good, but he just became Shaq for about a month these playoffs.

 

I think he was actually better on the road than at home from the free throw line in the Miami series.

[FVBrewerFan]

He was missing them before the counting, but the counting is what made this a topic and a national headline that every single team's fans have followed. Then every single time he steps to the line, he has all this running through his head. He's a human being. I know BF likes to claim that clutch or whatever isn't a thing, but nobody is going to convince me that the fans, media, whoever you want to blame, didn't make this into a bigger thing than it was for Giannis.

 

My opinion is that it was probably another rough stretch of shooting that he just seems to periodically go through, and all of the compounding factors made it worse. I've never seen him air ball as many as he has in the last month. It's like he airs at least one every road game. I don't care how great he is or how mentally tough he is, air balling FTs is humiliating once. He's done it like 10 times, and in front of the guy who said he has "no skills."

 

He's had games and stretches of games like that from the line over the past 3 years now. It started in Boston when he air-balled a FT or two in a game during the 18-19 season. Ever since then he's aired FTs from time to time, aired 3 pointers too. No counting was going on during this whole phase of his career. I just don't see any difference now vs then.

 

Giannis gets in his own head at times, I don't think it's the crowd. There's just no correlation there. Playoff pressure may add to it, I'll buy that, but home/road splits tell us counting has nothing to do with it.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Again though, the home/road playoff splits tell us that Giannis is 3% below his regular season rate in the playoffs at home (65-62). He is 20% below his regular season on the road (72-52). That's a massive difference.

 

I don't think the counting is accounting for a 20% drop. But the general unfamiliarity/discomfort of the road, the noise, the counting, some coincidence, etc., is accounting for it.

 

The difference between home and road in the NBA has always been the snowball effect. When things go wrong on the road, they seem to continue going wrong for long stretches with the crowd feeding off the game and the officiating feeding off the crowd. It's like a cycle. When you're at home, it doesn't seem to happen the same way.

[homer]

Again though, the home/road playoff splits tell us that Giannis is 3% below his regular season rate in the playoffs at home (65-62). He is 20% below his regular season on the road (72-52). That's a massive difference.

 

I don't think the counting is accounting for a 20% drop. But the general unfamiliarity/discomfort of the road, the noise, the counting, some coincidence, etc., is accounting for it.

 

The difference between home and road in the NBA has always been the snowball effect. When things go wrong on the road, they seem to continue going wrong for long stretches with the crowd feeding off the game and the officiating feeding off the crowd. It's like a cycle. When you're at home, it doesn't seem to happen the same way.

 

The sample size is tiny though. One good game more or less could equalize that. Maybe he does choke on the road in the playoffs or something but he was 9/14 from the line in the 2nd half of game two in Phoenix which is much more pressure and he was much closer to his season average.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I mean, it's small relatively speaking, but it's 90 shots and he's 47/90. That's really bad. He could hit his next 20 in a row and would be sitting at 61% on the road. He has actually been "fine" in the Finals overall though.

 

Game by game in the playoffs:

 

Away 11/18 = 61.1%

Away 7/12 = 58.3%

Away 0/3 = 0%

Away 6/13 = 46.2%

Away 8/14 57.1%

Away 4/7 = 57.1%

Away 2/7 = 28.6%

Away 0/3 = 0%

Away 4/6 = 66.7%

Away 5/7 = 71.4%

 

Home 13/17 = 76.5%

Home 3/4 = 75%

Home 6/8 = 75%

Home 6/10 = 60%

Home 5/10 = 50%

Home 4/9 = 44.4%

Home 6/7 = 85.7%

Home 6/13 = 46.2%

 

The real outlier is that he was awful against both ATL and BKN on the whole, shooting under 50% both series. He's basically been at his season average against Miami and PHX.

 

Also:

 

His median FTA is 10 at home, 7 on the road

The Bucks generally do a lot better when he shoots a bunch of FTs, even if he doesn't make them.

[MrTPlush]

I’m not speaking for past seasons or the potential future, but if you have been watching the playoffs there is no denying Giannis has shot way worse on the road (FTs) and has certainly looked uncomfortable at times shooting due to the crowd. It’s seems about as obvious as can be minus Giannis literally coming out and saying it.

[rickh150]

I’m not speaking for past seasons or the potential future, but if you have been watching the playoffs there is no denying Giannis has shot way worse on the road (FTs) and has certainly looked uncomfortable at times shooting due to the crowd. It’s seems about as obvious as can be minus Giannis literally coming out and saying it.

 

I can’t believe his ft % would go down if he shot within the first 5 seconds. Just shoot it. The extra time does not help, IMO.

[CheezWizHed]

It all depends on the routine he is comfortable with. For some people doing it fast means you are being rushed, feeling rushed, and make mistakes.

 

Shooting FT in Milwaukee last game, he looked very natural shooting FT in the 6-8 sec range. On the road, it seemed like he was more around 8-11 seconds and looking much less consistent.

 

Personally, I'd have the people counting piped in over loud speakers while I practice and use that to help my cadence.

[MrTPlush]

For now they are at the mercy of whatever happens, can't really make any changes. If you tried to get him to do it in 5 seconds right now he would probably miss 3/4. In the offseason I imagine they will try to get him onto a speed in which doesn't create excessive fan counting etc. and he has zero chance of getting a violation. In basketball it seems incredibly important to not do anything that gets the opposing fans into the game and unfortunately Giannis created a little bit of a monster against himself.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't think it's the counting in and of itself that made things worse for the record. But I don't think giving the fans a reason to get hyped up is ever a good thing. And in any competitive game, they are now juiced when he goes to the line. The Bucks shooting FTs shouldn't be a reason the crowd gets into the game and too often it has been. The easy solution is making them, but I was just saying that you have a problem when you groan sending a 70% FT shooter to the line because you're afraid he's going to miss and energize the crowd.

[mtrebs]

I’m nervous for the game tonight. It’s as close to a must-win without actually being a must-win. The Bucks need to win all their home games and steal one of the remaining away games. I don’t see them winning two road games.

 

Need Middleton to make his jump shots, Jrue to shoot more consistently (make layups) and not turn the ball over to much, and Lopez to be more involved. Giannis needs to drive the paint and not take threes. Hopefully some combination of these can work and lead to a big Bucks win tonight! Don’t know the next time we’ll be able to see the Bucks in the Finals, so let’s enjoy it!