2021 NBA Finals: Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns BUCKS WIN THE TITLE!!!!

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'd put money on the Bucks to win Game 3 but at this point I would not put a dime on this going 7 games. When you out-rebound, block 7 or 8 shots, don't turn it over, double their margin in the paint, and shoot 45%...and generally don't come within 10 points, you're in trouble.

[adambr2]

It's kind of disheartening when you have multiple reporters and news media types calling your team the dumbest team in the NBA.

 

Now they're being called the dumbest team in NBA finals history.

 

When you pull a clip from coach bud telling the team in the locker room pregame to play random and have fun, it does nothing but feed the notion that they really don't have a plan.

 

At least we now have our answer as to why they are grinding in the paint, getting to the rim, and penetrating one quarter, only to seemingly randomly switch their offensive game to mid range jumpers and quick contested 3s the next quarter. They're literally being instructed to do so.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I was given a statistical analysis through a friend that is working the finals and received it from a stat person for one of the teams. It's very brief but it showed based on shots taken, the Bucks win this game 88% of the time. The Suns were statistically expected to score 14 less points on 3s, and the Bucks were statistically expected to score 5 more points on finishes at the rim. Those were the big two outliers that swung the game.

 

For those who haven't thrown in the towel on the series(~75% of posters in this thread) and are looking for a bit of optimism heading into game 3...there it is.

 

Hoping that a team won't shoot 50% from three again is for losers!

 

All joking aside, and statistics aside, the bucks simply need to shoot better. It's much of a fan as I am Holiday and Middleton, they need to start showing up more than four out of seven games. Simple as that.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The "hoping a team won't shoot well" thing has, for the most part, been what has happened. ATL eeked out one game with Young scoring 50 points, then won a blowout after Giannis got hurt. In several of their losses, Young didn't shoot all that well. They won the two games they shot 50%, and shot OK in Game 5, but Middleton took the game over.

 

KD had the crazy game 5, but the Bucks still went 4-1 in the last 5 games of that series once things leveled out a bit and BKN dipped into the low and mid 40s and out of the 50s. Their lows weren't as bad as ATL's.

 

I think it's probably accurate to say PHX will have a bad shooting night soon. But these games haven't been all that close. We're basically down 10 the whole time and have a small late rally in both.

[owbc]

If I was a Suns fan I would be outraged at all the press about Milwaukee being "dumb". The Suns literally just executed better. The 88% chance of winning statistic isn't really a surprise given how many contested 3s the Suns knocked down. The "Giannis' teammates are useless" narrative is much more accurate.

 

You have two teams that are basically evenly matched so of course it's going to come down to execution and adjustments. Although I do agree that there's something to be said for the absurdity of the "random" comment -- if something is working you keep doing it until the other team finds a way to adjust, so the "randomness" of the Bucks changing strategy at the start of quarters (which isn't random at all LOL) is irritating.

 

I find the "88% chance to win" thing to be somewhat depressing since dropping a winnable game in a 7-game series is devastating. But until the Bucks lose at home it's still a series. They only had to take one game in Brooklyn and they did. The other piece of optimism that I have is that we have Giannis and they don't. I've never see a star player want to win an NBA finals so badly since Michael Jordan and the Suns do not really have an answer for him. He's going to have a 50 point game in this series.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The Suns have been disrespected from the start of the playoffs with basically every large outlet picking LA to beat them. Yes AD got hurt but it happens. The Clips played their way out of #2 to avoid the Lakers, probably partially due to the Lakers getting 7 home games against them. But PHX has just played. And they have been pretty dominant.

[adambr2]

The win probability thing is something that always makes me chuckle, and I mean no offense to anyone who brings it up. But you always see things like Tucker hits a 3 to make it 21-12 in the first quarter and our win probability is at 67.2% when we all know damn well at that point that we aren't 67.2% confident in winning the game.

[KeithStone53151]

I'd put money on the Bucks to win Game 3 but at this point I would not put a dime on this going 7 games. When you out-rebound, block 7 or 8 shots, don't turn it over, double their margin in the paint, and shoot 45%...and generally don't come within 10 points, you're in trouble.

 

The Suns opened the game making 7 of 11 threes...and very few weren't at least somewhat contested. If they make 4-5 instead of 7 of those, we have the 10 point lead and can pile on from there. We played much much better than the Suns in the 1st quarter. I would like to think coach will look at that and try to play more like that in game 3.

 

Giannis also should theoretically feel better and stronger each game going forward. He's such a devastating mismatch for this team(i mean he is for most teams but it's really magnified against the Suns), he's at maybe 90% and just wrecking this team.

 

It would also be cool if Jrue stopped shooting altogether and Middleton showed up for a few games.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The win probability thing is something that always makes me chuckle, and I mean no offense to anyone who brings it up. But you always see things like Tucker hits a 3 to make it 21-12 in the first quarter and our win probability is at 67.2% when we all know damn well at that point that we aren't 67.2% confident in winning the game.

 

Admittedly I don't have a great grasp on this stuff, but I feel same about it the other way. The Suns are an 89% probability to win the Finals right now, really, 89? I could get like 70, but the leads I've seen blown in a series just in the last 5 or 6 years or so just makes it seem high. Also that the Brewers are like 3% to win the WS but the Dodgers, who may have a play-in game that they can easily lose, are 27%? I am in no way suggesting the Brewers are better than the Dodgers, but those calculators have always seemed fudgy to me.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I'd put money on the Bucks to win Game 3 but at this point I would not put a dime on this going 7 games. When you out-rebound, block 7 or 8 shots, don't turn it over, double their margin in the paint, and shoot 45%...and generally don't come within 10 points, you're in trouble.

 

The Suns opened the game making 7 of 11 threes...and very few weren't at least somewhat contested. If they make 4-5 instead of 7 of those, we have the 10 point lead and can pile on from there. We played much much better than the Suns in the 1st quarter. I would like to think coach will look at that and try to play more like that in game 3.

 

Giannis also should theoretically feel better and stronger each game going forward. He's such a devastating mismatch for this team(i mean he is for most teams but it's really magnified against the Suns), he's at maybe 90% and just wrecking this team.

 

It would also be cool if Jrue stopped shooting altogether and Middleton showed up for a few games.

 

For the Bucks, it's all about getting an efficient 40 points from Middleton and Jrue collectively to go along with Giannis' 30+ against this Suns team. Getting more outside scoring lets Giannis wreak havoc on the inside even more. If the Bucks can get balanced offensively they win these games even with the Suns shooting the lights out from 3 - the problem hasn't been opportunities, it's that Middleton and Jrue aren't making shots.

[adambr2]

The win probability thing is something that always makes me chuckle, and I mean no offense to anyone who brings it up. But you always see things like Tucker hits a 3 to make it 21-12 in the first quarter and our win probability is at 67.2% when we all know damn well at that point that we aren't 67.2% confident in winning the game.

 

Admittedly I don't have a great grasp on this stuff, but I feel same about it the other way. The Suns are an 89% probability to win the Finals right now, really, 89? I could get like 70, but the leads I've seen blown in a series just in the last 5 or 6 years or so just makes it seem high. Also that the Brewers are like 3% to win the WS but the Dodgers, who may have a play-in game that they can easily lose, are 27%? I am in no way suggesting the Brewers are better than the Dodgers, but those calculators have always seemed fudgy to me.

 

Well the historical precedent on a team coming back from 0-2 is, I believe, 13%. So fairly close to the 11% they give us right now.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Based on what though? Does that include 8 seeds coming back against 1 seeds? 7s coming back against 2s? That's why I think it's dumb.

[KeithStone53151]

Based on what though? Does that include 8 seeds coming back against 1 seeds? 7s coming back against 2s? That's why I think it's dumb.

 

The number he found was just finals. If you look at playoffs as a whole I think it's 6% if I'm seeing the same website he's seeing.

 

https://www.landofbasketball.com/statistics/playoff_series_2_0.htm

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'd want it broken out by eras. It feels more likely to happen in even the last decade than the 90s and even more likely than in the 60s or however far back the stat goes. I've seen the Bucks come back from 0-2 and blow 2-0 just in the last 3 seasons. I've seen the Warriors blow 2-0 and 3-1, I've seen the Heat win a title down 2-0. Maybe it's just that those stick with you.

[FVBrewerFan]

I agree, the old Celtics teams, Bulls, etc. had a much larger margin between them and their opponent. Feel means nothing, I know, but feels like the Bucks have about a 20% chance. But if they win the next two it brings it up to 40-45%, which is pretty much where I put it with a "healthy" Giannis.

[adambr2]

4 out of these next 5 games are definitely must win games.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

4 out of these next 5 games are definitely must win games.

 

I get the joke but putting in this way makes me realize how bleak this is.

[adambr2]

4 out of these next 5 games are definitely must win games.

 

I get the joke but putting in this way makes me realize how bleak this is.

 

3 of the 5 are in Milwaukee, if that helps.

[adambr2]

Why does Giannis just stop and take a 20 foot jumper with 15-20 seconds on the shot clock? When is that a good idea for him, ever?

[adamb100]

Why did Bud pull Giannis after just 3 min?

[adambr2]

I love the fight and hustle we're showing, but it's so apparent how much better Phoenix is than us. Everything for them is just so effortless and easy. Everything on our end is a battle. We basically need them to have 4 bad games.

[owbc]

Why did Bud pull Giannis after just 3 min?

 

Giannis pulled himself. Possibly hurting.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I love the fight and hustle we're showing, but it's so apparent how much better Phoenix is than us. Everything for them is just so effortless and easy. Everything on our end is a battle. We basically need them to have 4 bad games.

 

I keep seeing this and I just disagree with it. We're probably (probably) going to lose this series, and maybe it's because Phoenix is a bad stylistic matchup for us. I don't know. I just disagree that they are so much better than the Bucks. They are both +5.9 NR teams over 72 games, they're both pretty similar statistically, other than the way they score their buckets.

[lcbj68c]

Why is Giannis out on the wing while Ayton bumps Holiday and Conaughton for layups?

[adambr2]

Ayton is just abusing us inside.