JBJ Season Struggles

[DuWayne Steurer]

Shaw has like a .606 ops. I don't even wanna hear about his rbi. Anyone hitting in his spot in the order with a .700 ops would have just as many and probably more

[Bulldogboy]

The lineup the brewers put on the field today is an affront to the paying customers. If I paid good money to watch Peterson Robertson Lopes Pina etc and then have the game come down to Bradley I may request a refund. I keep hearing about all the injuries. Who is injured who is any good besides Wong?? The fact is this team is going no where fast unless Stearns can turn water into wine. I don't see it and no longer trust him anyway. Counsell appears to be worn down as well. It's just no fun watching a bad hitting team who has no speed runs the bases poorly can't situational hit and has little power. I think that covers it.

[umphrey]

They will have some opportunities at the trade deadline to improve the offense but I kind of hope they find a way to salary dump JBJ away

[Bulldogboy]

Wong (115 wRC+)

Urias (100 wRC+)

Yelich (126 wRC+)

Avisail (106 wRC+)

Omar (147 wRC+)

Adames (110 wRC+)

Vogelbach (106 wRC+)

Taylor (111 wRC+)

 

When everyone is healthy the lineup is fine.

Beside Wong who isn't healthy?? It still hasn't led to a good offense.

[wibadgers23]

Can we rehire Doug Melvin as co-GM and have him build the offense and have Stearns deal with the pitching? We might be unstoppable.

[JohnBriggs12]

Wong (115 wRC+)

Urias (100 wRC+)

Yelich (126 wRC+)

Avisail (106 wRC+)

Omar (147 wRC+)

Adames (110 wRC+)

Vogelbach (106 wRC+)

Taylor (111 wRC+)

 

When everyone is healthy the lineup is fine.

Beside Wong who isn't healthy?? It still hasn't led to a good offense.

 

Taylor

 

But your point is a good one especially when Counsell decides his 25 year old shortstop needs days off and decides to give him one the same day Narvaez isn't playing. Funny how things have changed. Yount started all 162 games in his age 32 season. Were players tougher 30+ years ago?

[Bulldogboy]

Wong (115 wRC+)

Urias (100 wRC+)

Yelich (126 wRC+)

Avisail (106 wRC+)

Omar (147 wRC+)

Adames (110 wRC+)

Vogelbach (106 wRC+)

Taylor (111 wRC+)

 

When everyone is healthy the lineup is fine.

Beside Wong who isn't healthy?? It still hasn't led to a good offense.

 

Taylor

 

But your point is a good one especially when Counsell decides his 25 year old shortstop needs days off and decides to give him one the same day Narvaez isn't playing. Funny how things have changed. Yount started all 162 games in his age 32 season. Were players tougher 30+ years ago?

Good question. I don't count Taylor because Counsell never played the guy once Yelich came back. No way he plays more than Bradley.

[JET15]

Here's a good article on the topic

https://reviewingthebrew.com/2021/06/16/brewers-jbjs-struggles-disaster-outfield/

[adambr2]

Here's some perspective on JBJ. Remember how bad Jonathan Schoop was for us? His OPS was 78 points higher than what JBJ has given us.

[JRob1125]

Yasmani Grandal-remember him -is batting .149

 

But as 10 HR and and OBP of .386. I'd definitely take that over about half of our lineup

[mtrebs]

Here's some perspective on JBJ. Remember how bad Jonathan Schoop was for us? His OPS was 78 points higher than what JBJ has given us.

 

I’d still take JBJ over Schoop. I couldn’t stand him moping around. That being said, I think it’s time to cut out losses and release JBJ at some point soon.

[owbc]

Yasmani Grandal-remember him -is batting .149

 

But as 10 HR and and OBP of .386. I'd definitely take that over about half of our lineup

 

Thank you. This is Brewerfan.net, we stopped using slash lines in 2005. Grandal is a top-10 catcher in baseball offensively this year. His wRC+ is 127 and that’s despite being one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball this year.

 

On top of that, if you’re going to use stats that aren’t weighted you can’t compare one position to another.

[adambr2]

Holy smokes, an OBP near 400 with a .149 BA is pretty impressive.

[owbc]

Holy smokes, an OBP near 400 with a .149 BA is pretty impressive.

 

I’m pretty sure that Grandal and Muncy are actively trying to avoid putting the ball in play. It’s kind of an extreme version of 3TO that only a handful of guys with elite pitch selection ability can pull off.

 

Maybe that’s the end stage of the analytics revolution if everyone just tries to draw walks because putting the ball in play is considered undesirable. If you have Grandal’s .132 BABIP it certainly makes way more sense to just foul off every strike that the pitcher throws you. Maybe we’ll see an MLB team win a game with zero hits at some point LOL.

[adambr2]

Holy smokes, an OBP near 400 with a .149 BA is pretty impressive.

 

I’m pretty sure that Grandal and Muncy are actively trying to avoid putting the ball in play. It’s kind of an extreme version of 3TO that only a handful of guys with elite pitch selection ability can pull off.

 

Maybe that’s the end stage of the analytics revolution if everyone just tries to draw walks because putting the ball in play is considered undesirable. If you have Grandal’s .132 BABIP it certainly makes way more sense to just foul off every strike that the pitcher throws you. Maybe we’ll see an MLB team win a game with zero hits at some point LOL.

 

I swear I am not looking this up and am going off total blind memory, so maybe I am wrong but I have some recollection of the White Sox winning a game with no hits in the early 90s. It wasn't even 1-0 either I think it was like 4-0.

[SomewhereInTime]

It’s not as bad as it looks. CF isn’t the worst spot to have a guy with a bad slash line. And JBJ has made up half of his negative offensive value with his glove. So he’s not even in the bottom-50 in bWAR. Shaw actually has been worse than JBJ and Hiura is three times worse.

 

I get the math that the front office did—run prevention in CF is worth more than whatever incremental gain you would get from replacing JBJ with a better bat. And with Cain injured I’m glad we have the guy. He’s never been any better than an average hitter but if he could just return to just being slightly below average that would suffice

 

That's more of an argument for why WAR isn't a very good stat. Especially in any sample size less than a full season.

[trwi7]

Wong (115 wRC+)

Urias (100 wRC+)

Yelich (126 wRC+)

Avisail (106 wRC+)

Omar (147 wRC+)

Adames (110 wRC+)

Vogelbach (106 wRC+)

Taylor (111 wRC+)

 

When everyone is healthy the lineup is fine.

Beside Wong who isn't healthy?? It still hasn't led to a good offense.

 

Taylor

 

But your point is a good one especially when Counsell decides his 25 year old shortstop needs days off and decides to give him one the same day Narvaez isn't playing. Funny how things have changed. Yount started all 162 games in his age 32 season. Were players tougher 30+ years ago?

 

But Taylor isn't going to play when Yelich, Cain and Garcia are able to. And when he did get a prolonged stretch of games, he struggled badly, so he's likely just a 4th outfielder that needs to be given good matchups.

[sveumrules]

I put Taylor in there because he should be off the IL before Lorenzo & I wouldn't be surprised to see him get some more starts if he continues to be cromulent while JBJ keeps flailing away.

 

Even so, once Cain is able his 91 wRC+ is hardly a lineup killer if that is your worst hitter & it is paired with plus base running & gold glove CF defense.

 

Yes, the team's overall line (89 wRC+) has been ugly, but that is largely on account of JBJ (239 PAs, 37 wRC+), Hiura (122 PAs, 26 wRC+) & to a lesser extent Shaw (202 PAs, 73 wRC+).

 

Brewers position players have posted -31.4 batting runs this year. Remove the three above, who are collectively at -34.2, & suddenly the offense is back in the black even with guys like McKinney (-4.2), Robertson (-3.7), Reyes (-3.6), Peterson (-2.2) & Lopes (-1.0) still dragging down the total.

 

Ultimately, when healthy, Omar, Manny, Vogelbach, Kolten, Adames, Urias, Yelich, Cain, Garcia & Taylor (+17.2 batting runs total) are 10 position players from which a perfectly fine lineup can be assembled. Moving forward they, plus whatever additions Stearns & company make, figure to get the overwhelming majority of the plate appearances so I don't believe the Brewers current 89 wRC+ is the best indicator for expected future results.

[JohnBriggs12]

I put Taylor in there because he should be off the IL before Lorenzo & I wouldn't be surprised to see him get some more starts if he continues to be cromulent while JBJ keeps flailing away.

 

Even so, once Cain is able his 91 wRC+ is hardly a lineup killer if that is your worst hitter & it is paired with plus base running & gold glove CF defense.

 

Yes, the team's overall line (89 wRC+) has been ugly, but that is largely on account of JBJ (239 PAs, 37 wRC+), Hiura (122 PAs, 26 wRC+) & to a lesser extent Shaw (202 PAs, 73 wRC+).

 

Brewers position player have posted -31.4 batting runs this year. Remove the three above, who are collectively at -34.2, & suddenly the offense is back in the black even with guys like McKinney (-4.2), Robertson (-3.7), Reyes (-3.6), Peterson (-2.2) & Lopes (-1.0) still dragging down the total.

 

Ultimately, when healthy, Omar, Manny, Vogelbach, Kolten, Adames, Urias, Yelich, Cain, Garcia & Taylor (+17.2 batting runs total) are 10 position players from which a perfectly fine lineup can be assembled. Moving forward they, plus whatever additions Stearns & company make, figure to get the overwhelming majority of the plate appearances so I don't believe the Brewers current 89 wRC+ is the best indicator for expected future results.

 

What do Robertson, Reyes, Peterson, Lopes all have in common besides the fact they aren't good major league hitters? You got it. They all play multiple positions. Maybe it's time that the focus should be more on who can hit major league pitching rather than who can be moved around when building roster depth?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I put Taylor in there because he should be off the IL before Lorenzo & I wouldn't be surprised to see him get some more starts if he continues to be cromulent while JBJ keeps flailing away.

 

Even so, once Cain is able his 91 wRC+ is hardly a lineup killer if that is your worst hitter & it is paired with plus base running & gold glove CF defense.

 

Yes, the team's overall line (89 wRC+) has been ugly, but that is largely on account of JBJ (239 PAs, 37 wRC+), Hiura (122 PAs, 26 wRC+) & to a lesser extent Shaw (202 PAs, 73 wRC+).

 

Brewers position player have posted -31.4 batting runs this year. Remove the three above, who are collectively at -34.2, & suddenly the offense is back in the black even with guys like McKinney (-4.2), Robertson (-3.7), Reyes (-3.6), Peterson (-2.2) & Lopes (-1.0) still dragging down the total.

 

Ultimately, when healthy, Omar, Manny, Vogelbach, Kolten, Adames, Urias, Yelich, Cain, Garcia & Taylor (+17.2 batting runs total) are 10 position players from which a perfectly fine lineup can be assembled. Moving forward they, plus whatever additions Stearns & company make, figure to get the overwhelming majority of the plate appearances so I don't believe the Brewers current 89 wRC+ is the best indicator for expected future results.

 

What do Robertson, Reyes, Peterson, Lopes all have in common besides the fact they aren't good major league hitters? You got it. They all play multiple positions. Maybe it's time that the focus should be more on who can hit major league pitching rather than who can be moved around when building roster depth?

 

One or two of those types at the back end of a 26-man roster is typically fine. Having four, two of which are starting pretty much every game, however, is not ideal.

[sveumrules]

What do Robertson, Reyes, Peterson, Lopes all have in common besides the fact they aren't good major league hitters? You got it. They all play multiple positions. Maybe it's time that the focus should be more on who can hit major league pitching rather than who can be moved around when building roster depth?

 

The other thing they have in common is they are AAA depth who are essentially only called upon when needed due to injury or one of whom would be acting as the 12th man when everyone is healthy.

 

Robertson has the most PAs of the group at 70 & that is still only 15th on the team.

 

I would love it if the organization had an extra couple two tree MLB caliber hitters as AAA depth in addition to a full complement of twelve or thirteen on the actual MLB roster, but that just seems like an unrealistic expectation.

[DuWayne Steurer]

If a guy is a starting caliber hitter, he's generally a starter.

[xisxisxis]

Yes, the team's overall line (89 wRC+) has been ugly, but that is largely on account of JBJ (239 PAs, 37 wRC+), Hiura (122 PAs, 26 wRC+) & to a lesser extent Shaw (202 PAs, 73 wRC+).

So if you just ignore all the bad hitters the Brewers offense is great! Good to know.

[sveumrules]

What do Robertson, Reyes, Peterson, Lopes all have in common besides the fact they aren't good major league hitters? You got it. They all play multiple positions. Maybe it's time that the focus should be more on who can hit major league pitching rather than who can be moved around when building roster depth?

 

One or two of those types at the back end of a 26-man roster is typically fine. Having four, two of which are starting pretty much every game, however, is not ideal.

 

So far they have started 37 games combined of the Brewers 68 total games. It's much closer to one of them starting every other game on average than two of them starting pretty much every game.

 

So far there are 416 players with at least 50 PAs. Here is a breakdown ranking teams by the number of league average or better hitters they have with at least 50 PAs this year...

 

TEAM: players with at least 100 wRC+ / players with 50+ PAs

 

LAD: 12 / 16

HOU: 10 / 12

MIN: 9 / 16

NYM: 8 / 12

CHC: 8 / 13

CIN: 8 / 13

OAK: 8 / 13

ATL: 8 / 14

CHW: 8 / 14

ARI: 8 / 15

SFG: 8 / 17

LAA: 7 / 14

PHI: 7 / 14

TBR: 7 / 15

MIL: 7 / 16

BOS: 6 / 13

SDP: 6 / 13

STL: 6 / 13

TOR: 6 / 13

MIA: 6 / 15

WAS: 5 / 13

CLE: 5 / 14

DET: 5 / 14

PIT: 5 / 14

TEX: 5 / 14

SEA: 5 / 15

COL: 4 / 12

KCR: 4 / 13

BAL: 4 / 14

NYY: 3 / 14

[sveumrules]

Yes, the team's overall line (89 wRC+) has been ugly, but that is largely on account of JBJ (239 PAs, 37 wRC+), Hiura (122 PAs, 26 wRC+) & to a lesser extent Shaw (202 PAs, 73 wRC+).

So if you just ignore all the bad hitters the Brewers offense is great! Good to know.

 

Hiura is in AAA, Shaw is hurt, JBJ will likely see his playing team decrease as other options come off the IL.

 

Combined they have accounted for 563 of 2,398 position player PAs so far, or 23.4%. Since they will collectively receive a much smaller portion of future plate appearances they will likewise exert much less of a negative impact moving forward.

 

Thus, I don't believe the Brewers current 89 wRC+ to be the most accurate predictor of their future results over the season.