Time for the Cubs to slow down?

[Dead Simmons]

Their schedule is getting tougher but they have looked like world beaters on the MLB highlights. Bryant has magically returned to form (ahem) and the pitching is good.

 

Guess we just gotta chip away at 'em

[Eye Black]

The Cubs (and Brewers) current winning percentage of .565 projects for 91.5 wins over the course of a 162-game season. Certainly good, but not that much above what was expected to be necessary to win the NL Central.

 

Good luck to your Cardinals this weekend… but not too much luck.

[sveumrules]

By run differential the Cubs are +33, right in line with their 35-27 record. They've scored 4.56 runs per game while only allowing 4.03 runs per game.

 

BaseRuns thinks they've actually been among the luckiest teams in MLB so far, gaining 5 extra wins on account of sequencing. By BaseRuns calculations the Cubs should be scoring 4.45 runs per game while allowing 4.55 runs per game.

 

Looking at their team pitching stats backs that up, showing they have probably been stranding runners at an unsustainable clip with a 77.4% left on base rate, 2nd in MLB, which has resulted in a team ERA of 3.73 compared to a FIP of 4.29, the second largest negative differential in MLB.

 

Lots of indicators that their pitching is in for some pretty notable regression as the season progresses, which is probably why the projections still favor the Brewers at this point with division odds of 64.6% vs 29.6% (PECOTA), 57.4% vs 27.0% (FanGraphs) and 45% vs 38% (538).

[Dead Simmons]

Brother, it would be a moral victory just not to get swept (that 4 game sweep by the Reds was crushing)

[Lathund]

Until their recent West Coast trip, Cubs had the easiest schedule in MLB per Baseball Reference's strength of schedule metric, and it's still among the easier ones. And as Sveum pointed out above, sequencing has been in their favor. I don't think they're a very good team, and if they ever suffer some injuries to their already weak rotation they could be really bad. The way I (and the projections) saw it, Brewers were the preseason favorite to take the division, and they still are. That the Brewers are tied with the Cubs at the top of the division despite how hitters have underperformed, and the difference in schedules, just reinforces that.

 

Cubs fans seem really confident, and I'm gonna enjoy seeing them come back to reality. I think that whether they plan to rebuild or try to contend, not selling (or even buying) at the deadline is going to hurt them long-term.

[JohnBriggs12]

Former Cardinal Patrick Wisdom has been unreal since he's been up with 8 HR in 44 AB's. He was hitting .160 with 12 K's in 25 AB's at Iowa. Kind of profiles a lot like Zach Green by the way.

 

Most amazing thing about Cubs is their bullpen. It's a bunch of guys having career years all at once.

[wibadgers23]

Former Cardinal Patrick Wisdom has been unreal since he's been up with 8 HR in 44 AB's. He was hitting .160 with 12 K's in 25 AB's at Iowa. Kind of profiles a lot like Zach Green by the way.

 

Most amazing thing about Cubs is their bullpen. It's a bunch of guys having career years all at once.

 

It seems like the Cubs and Cardinals have guys like this come up almost every year and just mash out of nowhere. It's sickening.

[Eye Black]

Former Cardinal Patrick Wisdom has been unreal since he's been up with 8 HR in 44 AB's.

For as much grief was given over the Brewers trading Trent Grisham, the Cardinals have had their share of guys that have exploded onto the scene after leaving their system in the past few years, including Luke Voit, Randy Arozarena, Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara, Carson Kelly, and Adolis Garcia.

[SeaBass]

Cards got out to a 5-1 lead in the top of the 5th but they're trying to give it all back in the bottom half.

 

5-4 Cards, 1 runner on and a pitching change.

[Dead Simmons]

Cards got out to a 5-1 lead in the top of the 5th but they're trying to give it all back in the bottom half.

 

5-4 Cards, 1 runner on and a pitching change.

Cards were doing OK 'till that Damn Bill Murray showed up. This pen has to be the worst in all of organized ball

[areacodes]

Cards got out to a 5-1 lead in the top of the 5th but they're trying to give it all back in the bottom half.

 

5-4 Cards, 1 runner on and a pitching change.

Cards were doing OK 'till that Damn Bill Murray showed up. This pen has to be the worst in all of organized ball

 

Have you seen the Reds bullpen?

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I think the Cards are better than the Cubs overall. Not the worst thing in the world for them to keep losing. I fear them (and dislike them) more long-term.

[rondoman]

I think the Cards are better than the Cubs overall. Not the worst thing in the world for them to keep losing. I fear them (and dislike them) more long-term.

 

Lmao the Cards are worse than the Reds. They are a bad team all around.

[nate82]

The Cardinals starting rotation is finally getting exposed for the weakness it was projected to be. Losing Flaherty is the near death kneel for that rotation. I don't see the Cardinals being much of a threat in the NL Central. The Cubs will be the Cubs and will cool off for a bit especially their starting pitching. I just don't believe the Cubs will be able to continue with the strong starting pitching especially when you look at who they have starting.

 

All of the NL Central teams have warts and problems though. The Brewers probably have the least worrying warts being their horrid batting and their just about average bullpen. The Cubs, Cardinals and the Reds all share the same issue a weak starting rotation but a good offense I have heard this story before as a Brewers fan it usually doesn't end well by the end of the season.

 

Good offenses will only carry you for so long at some point the bad starting pitching is going to hurt your bullpen and your offense won't be able to out score a team every game. Offenses can be fixed at a cheaper cost than a starting pitcher. Basically if the Cardinals are hanging around they will have to give up Gorman+ to get a starting pitcher and the biggest one left today after 12 pitches in Scherzer. Beyond Scherzer it is just a bunch of mediocre starting pitchers and that won't be enough to get the Cardinals into the playoffs. The same issue with the Cubs they will have to give up prospects that they don't have and probably don't want to give up. If the Cubs are somewhat in it come the deadline I expect them to just trade for marginal players to make their team better. Probably just adding to the bullpen or another #3 or #4 type starter. The Reds will more than likely sell and I think that is the right call for them as they shouldn't be trading their prospects as there really isn't anything out there that is going to move them from 4th to 1st. The wildcard is probably also out of the question in the NL Central.

[SomewhereInTime]

Cards got out to a 5-1 lead in the top of the 5th but they're trying to give it all back in the bottom half.

 

5-4 Cards, 1 runner on and a pitching change.

Cards were doing OK 'till that Damn Bill Murray showed up. This pen has to be the worst in all of organized ball

 

Personally I'd choose the Kannapolis Cannon Ballers' pen as the worst but St. Louis might be next.

[StearnsFTW]

I think the Cards are better than the Cubs overall. Not the worst thing in the world for them to keep losing. I fear them (and dislike them) more long-term.

 

Agree. Cubs pitching stinks.

[phnxcrew]

It Would appear the Cubs will slow down after hitting off the awful

Cardinals pitching. It’s so weird that the brewers have good starting pitching and the cardinals don’t. That’s a first

[DHonks]

I said it about 10 days ago, but we may not lose two in a row until July. Next upcoming difficult series (on paper) is the Cubs June 25. Lots of low hanging fruit

[JohnBriggs12]

I think the Cards are better than the Cubs overall. Not the worst thing in the world for them to keep losing. I fear them (and dislike them) more long-term.

 

Agree. Cubs pitching stinks.

 

Cubs have the best bullpen ERA in the National League. That's offset a rotation that's near the bottom. It's far from stinking. Their non-pitchers have the 4th best WAR in the NL. Brewers are 13th. St. Louis is 12th in starting pitching and 14th in RP and their best starter is on the IL. Now that's a pitching staff that stinks.

 

Hendricks and Davies are both better than their current ERA's would indicate and if they stay at or near the top, they will be buyers and look to add a starter or two at the deadline.

 

I fear the Cubs far more than the Cardinals. Top to bottom, their lineup is better than St. Louis. Bryant is back to his MVP form and that's affecting their entire offense. Kimbrell's been unhittable closing games.

[RWeeksFan23]

Former Cardinal Patrick Wisdom has been unreal since he's been up with 8 HR in 44 AB's.

For as much grief was given over the Brewers trading Trent Grisham, the Cardinals have had their share of guys that have exploded onto the scene after leaving their system in the past few years, including Luke Voit, Randy Arozarena, Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara, Carson Kelly, and Adolis Garcia.

That dude from the Rays who had that god-like playoffs run last year for them was in the Cardinals' system? Didn't even know that.