Trey Mancini

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Trey Mancini's name has been brought up quite a bit. Baseball Reference has him listed as "1st Baseman and Outfielder". Stearnsie loves his versatile players.

 

He's currently hitting .284 with 11 HRs .360 OBP and a OPS+ of 143.

 

He's on contract for $4.75 Million this year. And one final year of Arby next year before becoming a free agent.

 

For context, the Orioles are 18-37....so no surprise that they will be sellers once again.

 

What would it take to get 1.5 years of an above average 29 year old first baseman?

 

Ethan Small and Corey Ray? Thoughts?

[wntrtxn21]

Trey Mancini's name has been brought up quite a bit. Baseball Reference has him listed as "1st Baseman and Outfielder". Stearnsie loves his versatile players.

 

He's currently hitting .284 with 11 HRs .360 OBP and a OPS+ of 143.

 

He's on contract for $4.75 Million this year. And one final year of Arby next year before becoming a free agent.

 

For context, the Orioles are 18-37....so no surprise that they will be sellers once again.

 

What would it take to get 1.5 years of an above average 29 year old first baseman?

 

Ethan Small and Corey Ray? Thoughts?

 

I would think that wouldn't even come remotely close to what the O's would want for Mancini. If he went on the market I don't think the Brewers would be in the running unless they over paid by a substancial amount.

[reillymcshane]

Trey Mancini's name has been brought up quite a bit. Baseball Reference has him listed as "1st Baseman and Outfielder". Stearnsie loves his versatile players.

 

He's currently hitting .284 with 11 HRs .360 OBP and a OPS+ of 143.

 

He's on contract for $4.75 Million this year. And one final year of Arby next year before becoming a free agent.

 

For context, the Orioles are 18-37....so no surprise that they will be sellers once again.

 

What would it take to get 1.5 years of an above average 29 year old first baseman?

 

Ethan Small and Corey Ray? Thoughts?

Mancini is a great story. I'm guessing that Baltimore only trades him if he's okay with it. But who wouldn't want to get out of that situation - even after all he's been through?

 

I'd be all for him. He'd fit right in at 1B - a huge upgrade.

 

As for your offer - I think it's little light.

 

In 2019, Mancini put up a bWAR of 3.9 and an fWAR of 3.7.

 

So far in 2021, he's pretty much on that same pace - maybe even a bit better: 1.5 bWAR and 1.4 fWAR.

 

That means Mancini is a very productive player for the next 1 and 2/3 seasons (which any team would get out of him).

 

4.0 WAR players are really good to have. And Mancini might be the kind of guy who would ink a reasonable extension as he's 29 - and coming off an obvious frightening situation. He might like the idea of some security - sort of like Whit Merrifield did a couple of years ago with KC. Lock in some life changing money in case the health issues return.

 

Speaking of health issues, Mancini's cancer - stage 3 colon cancer - is incredibly serious. I don't know what to expect going forward - perhaps no one does - but it's got to hurt his value to some degree.

 

All that said, I think you need more than Ray and Small. Of course, perhaps I'm underestimating Small's value. It's a hard one to quantify in my books. Perhaps others have better thoughts than me.

[Eye Black]

What would it take to get 1.5 years of an above average 29 year old first baseman?

 

Ethan Small and Corey Ray? Thoughts?

I think it would take more than Small and Ray. I don’t think Ray has much remaining trade appeal at this point.

 

Assuming the Brewers wouldn’t be open to moving Mitchell or Turang, I think it would take a couple of their other top 8-10 prospects.

 

Maybe ONE of the following headline pieces:

Mario Feliciano

Aaron Ashby

Hedbert Perez

Ethan Small

 

Along with ONE of these prospects:

Antoine Kelly

Eduardo Garcia

Tristen Lutz

Freddy Zamora

 

And probably a THIRD prospect not mentioned above.

 

For example, maybe something like Mario Feliciano, Tristen Lutz, and Reese Olson.

[MadThinker88]

Using Baseball Trade Values, Mancini has a value of 20.7

 

For reference the same place has these values for Brewer players:

E Small 6.0

C. Ray 2.1

 

Ashby 8.9

B. Turang 26.6

G. Mitchell 21.8

 

I doubt there is a trade match unless it was Mitchell for Mancini ( & its unlikely Brewer fans want to do that deal)...

[Roderick]

If I am going to do a trade, might as well try to get a bullpen guy while at it.

 

I would be willing to move Turang, Ray, Lutz for Mancini, Fry. We'd be a little short on the trade simulator, but a ballpark to start in.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Due to our pathetic drafting gutting the minor league system doesn’t seem wise.

[umphrey]

I’m hoping we can trade away Hiura in a 1B trade. I’m not expecting him to have much value but I’m hoping a rebuilding team will want to take him on as a project.

[sveumrules]

Due to our pathetic drafting gutting the minor league system doesn’t seem wise.

 

Outside of Ray/Erceg, which picks do you consider pathetic?

 

No one we could have picked in the 2020 or 2019 drafts has made the majors yet & a total of three players selected after Turang in the first round of 2018 have made it to MLB at this point. Probably a little too early to draw any definitive conclusions on those drafts.

 

Hiura has the 6th highest WAR in the 2017 1st round & two of the players with higher WAR were drafted before him. 19 of 36 first rounders in 2017 still haven't even made it to MLB, so probably still a little too early to really be certain about anything there either.

 

Enough time has passed that it's probably safe to say Ray & Erceg won't live up to their draft positions, though that doesn't necessarily mean they won't ever contribute anything as Ray has already helped us win a game this year, but even so snagging Burnes in the 4th round has more than made up for it so far.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Our system is garbage bro. The guy doing the drafting should probably be **** canned. Bruce Seid was awful and we really haven’t recovered much. The Greinke trade was probably the highlight of our system. Since then, not very good.

[PeaveyFury]

Tone down the language, please.

[sveumrules]

Our system is garbage bro. The guy doing the drafting should probably be **** canned. Bruce Seid was awful and we really haven’t recovered much. The Greinke trade was probably the highlight of our system. Since then, not very good.

 

Right, the system is not very highly ranked right now, but that has very little to do with the drafting since Stearns & company took over & a lot more to do with graduating & trading numerous prospects combined with winning the 11th most games in MLB since Stearns & company took over so they haven't had many high picks to work with.

 

Before trading for Greinke & Marcum, Baseball America ranked our farm 13th...

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2010-mlb-organizational-talent-rankings/

 

At the outset of Stearns & company's tenure in 2016-17, John Sickels ranked the farm system 5th/7th...

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/4/2/11333890/minor-league-baseball-farm-system-rankings-for-2016

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/1/17/14297686/milwaukee-brewers-top-20-prospects-for-2017

 

Based on those rankings, the Greinke trade was not the highlight of our system.

 

Going over the Sickels team list from 2017 is pretty interesting...

 

Kept/Graduated: Hader (#2), Woodruff (#7), Nottingham (#14), Burnes (#16), Williams (#19), Peralta (HM), Houser (HM), Suter (HM), Taylor (HM)

 

Traded: Brinson (#1), Diaz (#4), Dubon (#5), Ortiz (#6), Phillips (#11), Grisham (#12), Lopez (#13), Cordell (#15), Lara (#17), Ponce (#18), Harrison (#20)

 

Outside of Grisham, Stearns & company pretty much made the right call on every prospect on the list which is a big part of why we've won the 11th most games in MLB since they took over & also a big part of why the farm system is currently ranked so low...because they have won too many games to have a bunch of high picks.

 

Maybe the picks they have made over the last three or four years will turn out to be pathetic, but given standard prospect development timelines, it is still far too early to make that call.

[Roderick]

Due to our pathetic drafting gutting the minor league system doesn’t seem wise.

 

First of all, it wouldn't be gutting the system. In fact, I purposely am trying to keep Ashby and Small.

 

Secondly, Adames isn't a FA until 2025, which does make Turang available for the right trade.

 

Lastly, if the players you get back are multiyear players, what more do you want? This wouldn't be trading for a two month rental. We'd have Mancini for a year and half and a prime position to extend him, while we know we are in the playoff hunt. Fry isn't a free agent until 2025.

 

For some it seems they would rather have a trophy on your shelf that we had the 8th best minor league prospects in 2021 - rather than a playoff appearance.

[brewtank34]

I would be open to trading Turang.

 

Turang, Huira

 

For

 

Mancini, M. Franco, Rylan Brannon, and minor league LHP Zach Lother.

[umphrey]

Turang, Hiura, Hedbert, Ray, Lutz all can go IMO if they bring back some reasonable value. I feel like there is ammo there for Mancini in addition to other guys outside our top 10.

[Brock42]

Although Baseball trade values is a decent resource for player values,

it is quite flawed in some evaluations. As an example Brice Turang has an assigned value of 26.6 while Christian Yelich is at -20.4.

In reference to Mancini, he would be an excellent pickup. Proven hitter

with decent defensive skills. Can play multiple positions. Affordable for 1.5 years and if he works out maybe an extension candidate.

Would believe Orioles would want young talent back.

Would like to see Hiura involved as I see him as an American League player at DH. Brewers may want more included with Mancini but if it’s straight up for him I would offer:

One of: Aaron Ashby/Ethan Small

One of: Tristen Lutz/Corey Ray

One of: Justin Jarvis/Brendan Murphy

[adambr2]

Although Baseball trade values is a decent resource for player values,

it is quite flawed in some evaluations. As an example Brice Turang has an assigned value of 26.6 while Christian Yelich is at -20.4.

 

Quite flawed in some evaluations, but this isn't one of them. Contract matters, and Yelich has a negative value because of his contract.

[nate82]

Turang, Hiura, Hedbert, Ray, Lutz all can go IMO if they bring back some reasonable value. I feel like there is ammo there for Mancini in addition to other guys outside our top 10.

 

If you are giving up Hedbert and Turang you should be getting someone back like Yelich (Marlins). I wouldn't include Turang or Hedbert in a Mancini trade that is an over pay.

 

I also believe the Orioles would be more interested in a pitcher in return for Mancini someone like Small or Ashby would be the headliner in a trade for Mancini. The second piece being someone like Zamora or Lutz and then the final two pieces being players like Ray, Bello, Gray, Henry etc.

 

The final pieces are usually lower level players in trades. Depending on how the Orioles view Hiura that could be something they consider. Like Hiura and Ray/Bello/Gray for Mancini, but you are then selling low on Hiura if you are the Brewers and you may have to add in someone like Lutz or Zamora instead of your lower end prospects to the deal.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Although Baseball trade values is a decent resource for player values,

it is quite flawed in some evaluations. As an example Brice Turang has an assigned value of 26.6 while Christian Yelich is at -20.4.

In reference to Mancini, he would be an excellent pickup. Proven hitter

with decent defensive skills. Can play multiple positions. Affordable for 1.5 years and if he works out maybe an extension candidate.

Would believe Orioles would want young talent back.

Would like to see Hiura involved as I see him as an American League player at DH. Brewers may want more included with Mancini but if it’s straight up for him I would offer:

One of: Aaron Ashby/Ethan Small

One of: Tristen Lutz/Corey Ray

One of: Justin Jarvis/Brendan Murphy

 

Quality take. Similar to expert “mock drafts” MLB exectuatives may value people differently. Only takes one GM to over value someone to make a good trade. Ashby though I think would be one of the few untouchables in our minors. High high upside lefty arm their!

[JohnBriggs12]

I guess you could trade Turang but I wouldn't be anxious to. Is Urias the long term answer at 3B? Is Turang at SS and Adames at 3B the better long term option? I don't think we know that answer to those just yet. Wong is only controllable through 2023. Turang will only be 24 on opening day 2024. They could keep all three of Turang, Adames and Urias.

[TURBO]

One of: Tristen Lutz/Corey Ray?

 

Are you saying these two guys have the same value?

 

I disagree.

 

I'd throw Ray in on any trade and not think twice, as long as we can find someone who wants him as a throw in...

[JosephC]

One of: Tristen Lutz/Corey Ray?

 

Are you saying these two guys have the same value?

 

I disagree.

 

 

I'd probably put them both in the "role player prospect" category and put the same surplus value on them. I suspect, total opinion on my part, that Lutz's value has largely come from Fangraph's positive support, and in recent writeups they have drifted further away from the plus exit velocity and talked more about his poor bat control and marginal athletic ability. Fangraphs still has not done the pre-season/early-season writeup on the Brewers system. When that happens, I think Lutz will be further down their rankings and that will domino his rankings on other sites, dropping him out of the Brewer's top 10 prospects and putting him in the same value class as Ray. Just speculation on my part.

 

Really bummed about Lutz. If I remember right he has a pretty strong start to this season, but I just looked and he's slashing a really mediocre .211/.285/.374/.659. We are several years removed from his big start in rookie ball and since that time it's looking more and more like he's a probable .240/.320/.400/.720 hitter that will end up in right field (yes, I know he is mostly playing CF these days), and .720 OPS corner outfielders would probably mostly be thought of as just above replacement. And that's assuming he makes it and spends some time in the MLB, which looks more and more questionable as time goes by.

 

I have to admit that I would have blown it on Lutz. I looked at that pick and for the longest time and was wanting Drew Waters and about a week before that draft flipped to Lutz and it sure looks like that was a complete flub. Maybe Lutz will turn out to be great and Waters will be a bust. Time will tell. But one thing that I feel pretty safe in saying is that Waters likely has 5 to 10 times the trade value of Lutz currently which is a pretty big deal as, if I were in Stearns chair, would definitely be in the buying mood in July. Heck, I'm in a buying mood already.

[umphrey]

Lutz strikeout rate has trended up every year since 2017 and its gotten to the point where he won't make the majors without a pretty big adjustment

[Devinep]

Mancini makes the most sense of any trade target in my opinion. Righty power is just missing out of this lineup. Plus, with garbage offensive CF production, Mancini could start at RF and Avi in CF until later in games if they want Big Dan in the lineup.

 

It would likely be selling low, but maybe the Orioles have some interest in Huira as a starting point in a trade?

[JohnBriggs12]

Cron doesn't play the OF but he'd be more affordable and he's killing LH pitching. I think he'd be ideal in a 50-50 split with Vogelbach.