The struggles of Yelich and Hiura - Let the numbers talk!

[adambr2]

I didn't love the Yelich extension the way most did at the time. It never felt like the steal that many seemed to think it was. He was still so far away from free agency and we essentially bought Yelich stock at its highest point. It looks like a terrible investment right now. There's still time for him to turn it around and at least be like the guy he was with the Marlins, but the time for just covering our ears and chalking it up to the weirdness of 2020 has long since passed.

 

I agree with others that Braun's last contract wasn't the albatross that some make it out to be. I didn't like that extension either, I don't understand why we've decided several times to extend guys into their late 30s years away from free agency, but Braun performed well enough to at least basically call the last deal a wash.

[SomewhereInTime]

I didn't love the Yelich extension the way most did at the time. It never felt like the steal that many seemed to think it was. He was still so far away from free agency and we essentially bought Yelich stock at its highest point. It looks like a terrible investment right now. There's still time for him to turn it around and at least be like the guy he was with the Marlins, but the time for just covering our ears and chalking it up to the weirdness of 2020 has long since passed.

 

I agree with others that Braun's last contract wasn't the albatross that some make it out to be. I didn't like that extension either, I don't understand why we've decided several times to extend guys into their late 30s years away from free agency, but Braun performed well enough to at least basically call the last deal a wash.

 

Not just that but they signed damaged goods. It would be as if the Packers signed bakhtiari this offseason to the big extension while recovering from knee surgery. You don't know how a guy is going to recover or if it will lead to changes in his swing that lead to other injuries.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't understand why we've decided several times to extend guys into their late 30s years away from free agency, but Braun performed well enough to at least basically call the last deal a wash.

 

Because the brand needs a face and this stuff matters far more than the folks here want to believe. Not just to sell tickets, which always seems to be where this conversation steers. You need a brand for corporate partnerships and the general engagement of the fans. Yelich, after 2 seasons of OPS-ing .750, is still by far the most recognizable likeness on the team, and it's not close. Signing him far away from FA is the only for MKE to sign him. I still don't really fault the Brewers too much for it. But it doesn't change the fact that as of today, it absolutely sucks how this is unfolding.

[adambr2]

I don't understand why we've decided several times to extend guys into their late 30s years away from free agency, but Braun performed well enough to at least basically call the last deal a wash.

 

Because the brand needs a face and this stuff matters far more than the folks here want to believe. Not just to sell tickets, which always seems to be where this conversation steers. You need a brand for corporate partnerships and the general engagement of the fans. Yelich, after 2 seasons of OPS-ing .750, is still by far the most recognizable likeness on the team, and it's not close. Signing him far away from FA is the only for MKE to sign him. I still don't really fault the Brewers too much for it. But it doesn't change the fact that as of today, it absolutely sucks how this is unfolding.

 

I acknowledge that this part of it matters, but not to the extent that necessitates making these huge deals years out from free agency. Faces of franchises evolve and change over time, and it doesn't mean they need lifetime contracts to ensure they stay the face over their entire career.

 

If you have a consistently good team, you'll have consistently good and marketable players. I doubt they can keep Willy Adames jerseys on the shelf right now, and he's been here 3 months. And if he leaves in 3 years, casual fans will move onto the next flavor.

[brewers888]

All the credit or blame for the Yelich contract solely belongs to Attanasio. The owner did this deal on his own and Stearns probably had little to no say as I doubt he would give a deal like this if Yelich was healthy at the time and no chance he was involved with the player coming off a serious knee injury.

[Simba2020]

I don't relieve believe in the face of the franchise stuff. Attendance isn't going to drop off because Yelich walks as a free agent assuming you continue to win. Winning trumps all. With his personality, you could argue Adames has already replaced Yelich or is well on his way to doing so. I certainly look forward to seeing Adames play and couldn't care less at this point in time about Yelich.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't relieve believe in the face of the franchise stuff. Attendance isn't going to drop off because Yelich walks as a free agent assuming you continue to win. Winning trumps all. With his personality, you could argue Adames has already replaced Yelich or is well on his way to doing so. I certainly look forward to seeing Adames play and couldn't care less at this point in time about Yelich.

 

I was pretty clear that attendance is just one component of this, which yes, tracks more closely with winning than any single player.

 

For reasons that are borderline not really what this forum does, Christian Yelich is really valuable to the Brewers, more so than Willy Adames or Jesus Aguilar. This is sort of exactly what I was talking about. Being good at baseball is just where those partnerships start, but advertisers have all kinds of ways of quantifying this (please don't bring up Giannis; he is a transcendent once in a millennia darling)

 

People who follow the Brewers closely know Willy Adames. My wife has no clue who he is. I could probably round up a lot of men who consider themselves Brewers fans who couldn't tell me anything other than "oh yeah, I hear he's doing pretty good" and couldn't tell you what position he plays. I'd guess more than 5/6 Milwaukee couldn't pick his face out of lineup. Some of that change with time but he is unlikely ever to reach the star power of Braun or Yeli. I work in this field every day so I feel close to it. I know you guys scoff at the idea that Yelich on a billboard for Associated Bank matters, but there is the reason these brands pay millions of dollars to do it, and it is not to get hardcore baseball fans who know Adames is better in their doors.

 

Yelich is a well-spoken All-American guy that any brand would love to have. I'm not saying that Adames or any other guy on the roster isn't, but they just don't come close to his brand power. All that said, Yelich is not playing well enough now to off-set that. But Ryan Braun was, IMO. In my experience, this particular forum is just far too analytical and baseball-minded to have this conversation, it pretty much always has been, but the high-level baseball discussion is sort of this place's calling card.

[crossface21]

I think Yeli has built up enough equity to giving him a longer leash to try and figure this out. We're 7 games up, some room to give. But if it starts getting tight, I think you gotta start making some "hard" decisions. Come October, if he hasn't started hitting better, he's not a "must start" in the playoffs. You gotta go with the best 3 OF hitters at point and if he's one of them, great. And lets keep in mind, as bad as Yeli has been for the Brewers, Bellinger has been WAAAAY worse for the Dodgers.

 

Bellinger is trending upwards though. Small sample but their last 7 games:

 

Yeli: .048/.130/.048

Beli: .320/.370/.640

 

Yeah, it's not looking good right now. Small sample size, but would love for Yeli to have a week like this to hopefully get confidence back and get on track.

[crossface21]

I thought the Braun extension was good. I thought the Yeli extension was good. And honeslty, I think everyone that says they were bad extensions are full of crap because the numbers warranted the extensions. I like seeing guys in the Brewer uniform being rewarded for doing really well in the Brewer uniform and not for somebody else. There's always gonna be a risk. I guess I get pretty irritated at the thought of letting guys go after the 6-7 years of control and let them go elsewhere to earn more money. There's really no telling how they'll do wherever they will go. Braun could have gotten busted playing for the Yankees, Yeli could have slumped playing for the Angels, etc. I like keeping guys that have shown they are good. Paying them is just the way of MLB. I don't want to go back to the days of Bud Selig and not shelling out the money to the guys that got you to where you are and then falling back.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

There's a difference between bad signing and the contract being bad for the team. Some people didn't like signing Yelich but most people were excited. You can see why they did it. But that doesn't change the fact that right now it does not look good.

 

Some things look very stupid right off the bat. Yeah you can not like extending Yelich but it's not like it was some crazy move out of nowhere.

[NYChez]

Yelich, Hiura, and Bradley have combined to be below replacement value, and the Brewers have an 8-game lead in the Central.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I don't relieve believe in the face of the franchise stuff. Attendance isn't going to drop off because Yelich walks as a free agent assuming you continue to win. Winning trumps all. With his personality, you could argue Adames has already replaced Yelich or is well on his way to doing so. I certainly look forward to seeing Adames play and couldn't care less at this point in time about Yelich.

 

I was pretty clear that attendance is just one component of this, which yes, tracks more closely with winning than any single player.

 

For reasons that are borderline not really what this forum does, Christian Yelich is really valuable to the Brewers, more so than Willy Adames or Jesus Aguilar. This is sort of exactly what I was talking about. Being good at baseball is just where those partnerships start, but advertisers have all kinds of ways of quantifying this (please don't bring up Giannis; he is a transcendent once in a millennia darling)

 

People who follow the Brewers closely know Willy Adames. My wife has no clue who he is. I could probably round up a lot of men who consider themselves Brewers fans who couldn't tell me anything other than "oh yeah, I hear he's doing pretty good" and couldn't tell you what position he plays. I'd guess more than 5/6 Milwaukee couldn't pick his face out of lineup. Some of that change with time but he is unlikely ever to reach the star power of Braun or Yeli. I work in this field every day so I feel close to it. I know you guys scoff at the idea that Yelich on a billboard for Associated Bank matters, but there is the reason these brands pay millions of dollars to do it, and it is not to get hardcore baseball fans who know Adames is better in their doors.

 

Yelich is a well-spoken All-American guy that any brand would love to have. I'm not saying that Adames or any other guy on the roster isn't, but they just don't come close to his brand power. All that said, Yelich is not playing well enough now to off-set that. But Ryan Braun was, IMO. In my experience, this particular forum is just far too analytical and baseball-minded to have this conversation, it pretty much always has been, but the high-level baseball discussion is sort of this place's calling card.

 

I think everyone, or most everyone that posts here is well aware of the economics of baseball and understands the value of having a guy who can bring in advertising and merchandising dollars. Just because the forum doesn't skew that way doesn't mean the people here aren't aware of the economic side of that sort of thing.

 

I also think that you underestimate the common fan or casual fans knowledge of guys like Tyrone Taylor or Willy adamas. Most of the guys I work with are what I would label as casual fans, and to say that five out of six people wouldn't be able to pick his face out of a lineup I think is just false. It's a hyperbolic statement made to make a point, and I get that.

 

I think most people, especially the guys and ladies that post here, especially here, are very knowledgeable about the economics of baseball, and understand how important advertising dollars are to the Brewers especially the Brewers. At what point does having Christian yelich's All-American, well-spoken face on a billboard have value that overrides his poor play? At what point does the added revenue from billboards and television and radio advertisements and jersey sales override the amount they can't spend on other good players because they are spending too much money on his 670 OPS when he's 35? It's not just added revenue, it's a roster spot, and a manager who will feel obligated to play him as much as possible because of the amount of money that is being spent on him.

[MrTPlush]

If Yelich keeps playing poorly his brand power and merchandising dollars will spiral down the drain...actually, it probably already is. Associated Bank isn't going to want his face on a billboard anymore. They will find someone better. One of my biggest concerns with Yelich, when he started struggling, was the fact he wasn't a lovable guy with fans. Yah he was good and fans liked him, but I don't think he was overly personable. He took off so fast after getting here and got that superstar mindset where he walked around like he was in a soundproof bubble. Compared to a guy like Braun who started off here so long before becoming a star. Before his scandal Braun was not only good, but fans loved him like he was their child. He still had a strong base of fans even after his scandal and decline in play.

 

The love for Yelich seems to start and end with his elite play...that's all fans from Milwaukee really got to see. In reality we didn't even get to see much elite play before he came crashing down. He doesn't have the track record to help keep his brand/attraction afloat. If his poor play lasts into next year I wouldn't be shocked if the boo birds start to come out, fan frustration is already starting to appear.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

No, I didn't mean it to be hyperbolic. 5/6 is 83%, and I'm saying that I don't think 20% of Greater Milwaukee could pick Willy Adames out of a lineup. I don't think people here have ever had a great understanding of the layman's attentiveness to baseball or the team. A while back there was a thread about a Miller Park hotel and the estimates people were tossing around about the % of folks driving from hours away to MP were comical.

 

Just using my own extended family, I know that basically my dad and one sibling could spot Adames, and almost nobody else could. They could all spot Yelich though, even the ones who think baseball sucks.

 

>At what point does having Christian yelich's All-American, well-spoken face on a billboard have value that overrides his poor play?

 

I literally said he's not playing well enough for his off-field value to offset it.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

If Yelich keeps playing poorly his brand power and merchandising dollars will spiral down the drain...actually, it probably already is. Associated Bank isn't going to want his face on a billboard anymore. They will find someone better.

 

I don't know why people keep saying this. It's pretty obvious that is the case. It doesn't change the fact that it's a major consideration when those contracts are offered, which is the point. You can trade some drop-off in play for the branding, heck that was probably the expectation, but nobody, even those of you who hated the extension, saw him falling off a cliff immediately after signing.

[jonescm128]

If Yelich keeps playing poorly his brand power and merchandising dollars will spiral down the drain...actually, it probably already is. Associated Bank isn't going to want his face on a billboard anymore. They will find someone better. One of my biggest concerns with Yelich, when he started struggling, was the fact he wasn't a lovable guy with fans. Yah he was good and fans liked him, but I don't think he was overly personable. He took off so fast after getting here and got that superstar mindset where he walked around like he was in a soundproof bubble. Compared to a guy like Braun who started off here so long before becoming a star. Before his scandal Braun was not only good, but fans loved him like he was their child. He still had a strong base of fans even after his scandal and decline in play.

 

The love for Yelich seems to start and end with his elite play...that's all fans from Milwaukee really got to see. In reality we didn't even get to see much elite play before he came crashing down. He doesn't have the track record to help keep his brand/attraction afloat. If his poor play lasts into next year I wouldn't be shocked if the boo birds start to come out, fan frustration is already starting to appear.

 

I definitely think there is a difference between a homegrown superstar vs one that was acquired. Fans are more invested in their journey but their play on the field will determine everything. I do agree with you that Braun was much more likeable and marketable. Yelich seems like a great dude but I always feel uncomfortable watching him in commercial spots and off the field events (ie: Bucks games). He seems to be pretty introverted and doesn't have that infectious personality that Braun had or that Adames has. That's not a knock on Yelich but it definitely plays into his brand. But it starts and ends with his play on the field. Everything else is just window dressing.

 

All I know is that every Wisconsin star is playing second fiddle to David Bahktiari. Now that's a dude I wanna have a beer with. But I digress...

[MrTPlush]

Just using my own extended family, I know that basically my dad and one sibling could spot Adames, and almost nobody else could. They could all spot Yelich though, even the ones who think baseball sucks.

 

You are comparing a guy who has been around for a few months to a guy who has been around for a few years. If you are going to make a hypothetical with no actual proof it would be that way, at least use a guy with similar time around the team...like Brandon Woodruff.

[DuWayne Steurer]

No, I didn't mean it to be hyperbolic. 5/6 is 83%, and I'm saying that I don't think 20% of Greater Milwaukee could pick Willy Adames out of a lineup. I don't think people here have ever had a great understanding of the layman's attentiveness to baseball or the team. A while back there was a thread about a Miller Park hotel and the estimates people were tossing around about the % of folks driving from hours away to MP were comical.

 

Just using my own extended family, I know that basically my dad and one sibling could spot Adames, and almost nobody else could. They could all spot Yelich though, even the ones who think baseball sucks.

 

>At what point does having Christian yelich's All-American, well-spoken face on a billboard have value that overrides his poor play?

 

I literally said he's not playing well enough for his off-field value to offset it.

 

I could say that you're 83% of people don't know who Willie Adames is take is comical, but I won't do that.

 

I'm going to guess most people who don't watch baseball can drive past a billboard and see Christian yelich or Ryan Braun's face and not know who it is. They probably know that he's a Milwaukee Brewer and that's probably about it. The same for Willy adamas or Tyrone Taylor or Justin topa.

 

The thing is, I don't even disagree that a guy like Christian yelich or Ryan Braun can drive ad revenue for a team like the Brewers. They just shouldn't be throwing out a contract for $200 million plus with that as part of the driver.

 

I don't expect owners to operate at a loss to put a winning team on the field. I think some fans feel like this is just a hobby for the owners and their main driving force behind owning pro sports teams is to win titles. Obviously, like any business, the goal is to make money.

 

Signing guys to two and 300 million dollar plus deals that expire in their late 30s, or in some cases their 40s, is almost always bad business.

 

Joey votto. That's one guy who's still performing at a high level. I can probably think of a few off the top of my head if given a few minutes. It's bad business. Yes, most people were pretty excited the day the deal was announced because hey, superstars don't sign long-term deals for the Brewers. But here we are. The inevitable decline just happened sooner rather than later. Maybe we will get lucky and he'll bounce back and have a couple 850 OPS seasons where he can be a passable middle of the order bat before he truly regresses into a bottom of the order or a bench bat. But it's just bad business, especially for a team like the Brewers.

 

I think we look back at Ryan Braun and say hey, it wasn't that bad of a deal.... Because guys just don't spend entire careers with one team anymore. Even with the scandal and everything else, he's our guy. His deal never financially crippled the team. It never kept us from going out and getting other pieces. Maybe yelich's deal won't do that either. But maybe it will. None of us really know what kind of jersey sales and add revenue and other things happened behind the scenes with these guys. I'm 100% positive that they're on field performance isn't the only driver behind contracts like this, sure. But I had revenue shouldn't be anything more than a tiny fraction of a percentage of why a general manager and an owner sign guys into their late 30s for huge dollars. There's no amount of ad revenue that can make up for a decline once a guy hits 32 or 33 or in Christian yelich's case, 29.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Just using my own extended family, I know that basically my dad and one sibling could spot Adames, and almost nobody else could. They could all spot Yelich though, even the ones who think baseball sucks.

 

You are comparing a guy who has been around for a few months to a guy who has been around for a few years. If you are going to make a hypothetical with no actual proof it would be that way, at least use a guy with similar time around the team...like Brandon Woodruff.

 

We're talking about Adames so that's why I used Adames...though I don't think Woodruff would fare all that much better. Among casual type Brewers fans, yeah he would.

 

I dunno what else say on the topic since it won't ever be put to the test. But I absolutely don't believe that if I stood on a street corner downtown with a headshot of Adames, that 20% of passersby could ID him. You guys are way overshooting the commercial power of a decent player in town for a couple of months. More than half won't have watched a baseball game this year and a bunch more not closely enough to recognize a random player's face without context. I'd be pretty impressed if 10 could. There's a not-insignificant chunk of attendees at the stadium on a given day who couldn't do it.

 

This is exactly what I was talking about as far as this place vs. gen pop. Not the same thing because this is a hyper-local example, but like half the population can't place the name with a picture of the VP of our country. You're under-estimating the % of people who couldn't care less about sports, and over-estimating the % that follow the Brewers closely enough to ID a player on the team for one summer, because it's the world you and I live in.

 

I think you'd be truly shocked if you think that 83% figure is way off the mark.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I'd be interested knowing what Yelich's batting practice sessions look like right now - is the power still there to drive the ball out of the park at will that just isn't translating into game at bats due to timing/lack of consistent ABs due to injury/COVID, or is Yelich literally not getting consistent work in on the side because of the back issue?

 

It just seems to me like he's in between at the plate and not attacking hittable pitches right now.

[JimH5]

There will always be a "face" of the franchise..someone who is featured on advertising and products, etc. In years when the team doesn't have a celebrated superstar, they use the manager or mascot. During Braun's suspension, they even used Hank the Dog for awhile.

 

I agree that Adames isn't well known by enough of the casual fans to be the face. But I don't think Yelich is long lived for that role if he doesn't perform. The team and its partners aren't going to use an underachieving player to market themselves.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The second-most recognizable face on the current roster is almost definitely Hader and I can't think of anyone that would even be close. Partially because he's very good, partially because he has a distinctive look.

[jonescm128]

I'd be interested knowing what Yelich's batting practice sessions look like right now - is the power still there to drive the ball out of the park at will that just isn't translating into game at bats due to timing/lack of consistent ABs due to injury/COVID, or is Yelich literally not getting consistent work in on the side because of the back issue?

 

It just seems to me like he's in between at the plate and not attacking hittable pitches right now.

 

Here are his ZSwing% (swings at pitches inside the strike zone) since 2018:

 

2018: 64.6%

2019: 71.2%

2020: 60.1%

2021: 63.9%

 

and his ZContact% (contact at pitches inside the strike zone)

 

2018: 88.1%

2019: 87.0%

2020: 81.9%

2021: 81.9%

 

Guessing this can be attributed to seeing less fastballs than in 2018/2019

[Jopal78]

If Yelich keeps playing poorly his brand power and merchandising dollars will spiral down the drain...actually, it probably already is. Associated Bank isn't going to want his face on a billboard anymore. They will find someone better. One of my biggest concerns with Yelich, when he started struggling, was the fact he wasn't a lovable guy with fans. Yah he was good and fans liked him, but I don't think he was overly personable. He took off so fast after getting here and got that superstar mindset where he walked around like he was in a soundproof bubble. Compared to a guy like Braun who started off here so long before becoming a star. Before his scandal Braun was not only good, but fans loved him like he was their child. He still had a strong base of fans even after his scandal and decline in play.

 

The love for Yelich seems to start and end with his elite play...that's all fans from Milwaukee really got to see. In reality we didn't even get to see much elite play before he came crashing down. He doesn't have the track record to help keep his brand/attraction afloat. If his poor play lasts into next year I wouldn't be shocked if the boo birds start to come out, fan frustration is already starting to appear.

 

I think you're being pretty subjective here. Yelich had arguably the two best seasons any player ever had for the Brewers.

 

Second, unless someone knows an athlete off the field, it's all speculation who is "overly personable" or not. Athletes all say the same platitudes for the cameras and market their individual brands. For example, Trevor Bauer was really interactive with his fans, but when the stadium lights are off he could actually be a terrible person.

 

And I wouldn't say it took Braun long to be a star. He won rookie of the year in the season that he made his MLB debut, starting with his first full season he made five consecutive all-star games (a popularity contest) and won the MVP in his 5th season. The guy was pretty much a superstar from May 25, 2007 forward.

 

All I know is brand visibility is important to teams and Yelich's association with the Brewers helps their brand visibility. How that is quantified in terms of dollars is one for the accountants.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'd definitely say Braun was better in front of a camera than Yelich and I have noticed the same sort of social awkwardness with him, though I don't know of a single WI athlete off hand who was better at that than Braun was. But he looked like a movie star and he sounded like one too.