The struggles of Yelich and Hiura - Let the numbers talk!

[JackNicholson1974]

Here is another hot take. Yelich's OBP has been his one silver lining. Earlier this decade it was in fashion to bat a "2nd leadoff hitter" 9th and the pitcher 8th. Why not try Yelich in the 9 hole to jump start the offense after one go around?

[MrTPlush]

Except his OBP isn't anything great when he is slugging sub .400. Despite an OBP of .372 he is a fringe starting OFer so far this year, especially on one of the top teams in baseball. His OPS is a low .724, he is a corner OFer, and not great at defense. If his name wasn't Christian Yelich and didn't have a massive contract that is the type of play that people would clamor to replace at the deadline.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I don't think anybody's saying his on base percentage it's great. Just that it's a silver lining. At least he's still getting on base. No, he's not getting paid to draw walk. Everybody knows that

 

I think what it amounts to is people are still trying to hopefully find a way to use him, keep him in the lineup, and hopefully not provide negative value to the offense.

[timpep]

Except his OBP isn't anything great when he is slugging sub .400. Despite an OBP of .372 he is a fringe starting OFer so far this year, especially on one of the top teams in baseball. His OPS is a low .724, he is a corner OFer, and not great at defense. If his name wasn't Christian Yelich and didn't have a massive contract that is the type of play that people would clamor to replace at the deadline.

 

I really want to defend him and say "at least he's getting on base". Unfortunately pitchers aren't being careful with him anymore so he's not even drawing walks now.

 

The guy needs some help with the mental aspect of the game I think. Feeling a ton a pressure after his contact, worried about injury, idk what it is, but I don't believe his talent just left. Even if he was stealing signs before(debatable), he'd still know how to swing the bat at meatballs.

[jonescm128]

Except his OBP isn't anything great when he is slugging sub .400. Despite an OBP of .372 he is a fringe starting OFer so far this year, especially on one of the top teams in baseball. His OPS is a low .724, he is a corner OFer, and not great at defense. If his name wasn't Christian Yelich and didn't have a massive contract that is the type of play that people would clamor to replace at the deadline.

 

He could use some time in the minors to figure it out but that won't happen. He is just totally lost up there. The last two seasons he has only put up 532 plate appearances so if there is any silver lining its that this is really just equivalent to one bad year.

[AKCheesehead]

Lewis Brinson is ahead of Yelich in WAR this season, .9 to .8 according to b-ref.

[crossface21]

I think Yeli has built up enough equity to giving him a longer leash to try and figure this out. We're 7 games up, some room to give. But if it starts getting tight, I think you gotta start making some "hard" decisions. Come October, if he hasn't started hitting better, he's not a "must start" in the playoffs. You gotta go with the best 3 OF hitters at point and if he's one of them, great. And lets keep in mind, as bad as Yeli has been for the Brewers, Bellinger has been WAAAAY worse for the Dodgers.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Yelich has an OBP of 0.234 in the last 28 days (~50 plate appearances scattered across missed time due to injury and COVID) - pitchers are just attacking him now that it's evident he's a shell of his former self until he proves otherwise...

 

He's had such a sporadic 2021 in terms of playing time because he can't stay healthy - his June was decent offensively but still way beneath what we saw from Yelich in 2018-2019, and it happened to be the one month where he didn't miss significant time. If he just reverted to what he was as a Marlin before the 2018 trade, he'd be a perfect fit at the top of this lineup right now.

[Underachiever]

I think Yeli has built up enough equity to giving him a longer leash to try and figure this out. We're 7 games up, some room to give. But if it starts getting tight, I think you gotta start making some "hard" decisions. Come October, if he hasn't started hitting better, he's not a "must start" in the playoffs. You gotta go with the best 3 OF hitters at point and if he's one of them, great. And lets keep in mind, as bad as Yeli has been for the Brewers, Bellinger has been WAAAAY worse for the Dodgers.

I don't understand why I should keep this in mind. It doesn't improve Yelich's numbers, Brewer chances of winning, or my feelings about any of it. At no time during Yelich's four nearly-identical weak groundouts to the right side of the infield last night, did I think, "Well, Bellinger would have done worse, so..."

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't know that the leash arguments work anymore. It's been a really long time. He stunk last year, he's stunk this year, it's August. We gave an almost-30-year-old with a bad back a fanboy contract, and now it's ours to overcome for years.

[roadcrew3]

I think we need to pump the breaks a little bit here. He has had 9 ABs since returning from Covid. He obviously has been disappointing this year but I'm willing to give him another week or two of seeing MLB pitching on a regular basis before we drop him to 9th in the lineup...

[Fear The Chorizo]

In all honesty, if the Brewers don't give Yelich the contract extension in March of 2020, I think the Brewers' front office would be wise to not exercise the $14M option for the 2022 season that was built into Yelich's last contract if he doesn't rebound down the stretch this season - that's how far he's fallen in terms of production since the day he signed his current deal.

[timpep]

I think Yeli has built up enough equity to giving him a longer leash to try and figure this out. We're 7 games up, some room to give. But if it starts getting tight, I think you gotta start making some "hard" decisions. Come October, if he hasn't started hitting better, he's not a "must start" in the playoffs. You gotta go with the best 3 OF hitters at point and if he's one of them, great. And lets keep in mind, as bad as Yeli has been for the Brewers, Bellinger has been WAAAAY worse for the Dodgers.

 

Let's also keep in mind that the dodgers owe Cody $0.00 after this season. We owe Yelich a bit over 200 million. Not a great comparison.

[sveumrules]

I don't know that the leash arguments work anymore. It's been a really long time. He stunk last year, he's stunk this year, it's August. We gave an almost-30-year-old with a bad back a fanboy contract, and now it's ours to overcome for years.

 

Maybe stunk relative to MVP level performance, but he has 532 PAs with a 107 wRC+ and 1.5 WAR between 2020-21, which is essentially league average production.

 

Yes, Yelich will be paid for more than league average production starting next year, though even with a 26 million dollar salary the break even point is still only around 3 WAR.

 

I don't think 532 PAs spread out over two years after shattering a knee cap, going through a pandemic altered season & other assorted ailments this year is enough to say the Yelich we are seeing now is Yelich we will get over the next seven years.

 

Joey Votto is eight years older than Yelich, posted a 104 wRC+ over 831 PAs from 2019-20 and has bounced back to a 142 wRC+ over 351 PAs this year.

[Underachiever]

I don't know that the leash arguments work anymore. It's been a really long time. He stunk last year, he's stunk this year, it's August. We gave an almost-30-year-old with a bad back a fanboy contract, and now it's ours to overcome for years.

So much of this is the most cynical spin you could give it. How about: The Brewers extended a guy off of back to back MVP caliber seasons (who had averaged 144 games a year for six seasons), to a contract that at the time was barely a top-20 MLB-value contract that bought out a couple of arby years. It appears that it has all gone spectacularly wrong, but as someone once said in another thread:

 

"Some contracts work, some don't. There's sizable risk with the kind of player in FA that would placate people enough to be OK with not spending on Yelich. You'd be exchanging the risk of this long-term deal for another risk. It's no guarantee at all that by hoarding pennies here they're better off in 5 years. Not even close to one."

Old School Snapper in the YELICH EXTENDED thread.

[JackNicholson1974]

Between extending Braun before they needed to, extending Yelich before they needed to, and dodging bullets on the Fielder and to a lesser extent, Sabathia contracts, I hope the Brewers learned something.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yeah I dunno what your point there is. I loved the contract, I would have told you that before you made that post. But that doesn't change the fact it's been a disaster. Sticking to my guns and pretending it was a good idea just because I liked it at the time isn't how I roll.

 

BTW even at the time I accepted his best season has already happened. I like it for a few reasons, one being that by the end of that deal, the AAV would probably be pretty average, which is still true, and I thought he'd still Marlins-level for a handful of years. I didn't think we were getting a slap singles hitter the next day.

[pacopete4]

It’s only a disaster if he doesn’t rebound with his power. We won’t know that until we go though it.

[sveumrules]

Between extending Braun before they needed to, extending Yelich before they needed to, and dodging bullets on the Fielder and to a lesser extent, Sabathia contracts, I hope the Brewers learned something.

 

Stearns & company weren't here for Braun's extension or any Fielder/Sabathia negotiatios.

 

CC put up 1329 IP with a 114 ERA+ on his original 7/161 contract with the Yankees, good for between 21-24 WAR depending on which variety one prefers.

 

FanGraphs had him as the 11th best starter by FIP based WAR & 19th by runs allowed WAR over those seven years. Wasn't really a bullet to be dodged there.

 

Even Braun put up 8 WAR over his second extension, so it wasn't a complete wash & didn't prevent the Brewers from somehow managing to win the 11th most games in MLB from 2016-20 during what was supposed to be a rebuild for at least the first two years.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'll still happily defend Braun's contract. It just wasn't that bad. He provided a lot of hard-to-quantify things and things that come up time and time again on BF that most of the brethren here just don't want to acknowledge or admit. There is a major off-field component of those monster contracts. I never thought Braun's play declined to such a level that is a bad deal with all of those things considered. Yelich is not doing enough on the field where those other things matter in my opinion. I had been saying for a long time that I think Yelich's best play is behind him, but that I think also think he will be better than this. I'm just not confident in the second part of that anymore.

[jonescm128]

I think Yeli has built up enough equity to giving him a longer leash to try and figure this out. We're 7 games up, some room to give. But if it starts getting tight, I think you gotta start making some "hard" decisions. Come October, if he hasn't started hitting better, he's not a "must start" in the playoffs. You gotta go with the best 3 OF hitters at point and if he's one of them, great. And lets keep in mind, as bad as Yeli has been for the Brewers, Bellinger has been WAAAAY worse for the Dodgers.

 

Bellinger is trending upwards though. Small sample but their last 7 games:

 

Yeli: .048/.130/.048

Beli: .320/.370/.640

[jonescm128]

Yelich 1st Half vs 2nd Half Tracker (games through 8/10)

 

ABs: 187 / 43

AVG: .241 / .163

OBP: .399 / .234

SLG: .369 / .279

OPS: .768 / .513

ISO: .128 / .116

BB%: 19.7 / 8.5

K%: 27.7 / 27.6

2B: 7 / 2

HR: 5 / 1

 

Still holding out hope for that 2018 second half Yelich to show up. Between his back injuries, All-Star game and COVID, he hasn't had consistent ABs to find a groove. Hoping we start seeing this trend back in the right direction!

[roadcrew3]

I think Yeli has built up enough equity to giving him a longer leash to try and figure this out. We're 7 games up, some room to give. But if it starts getting tight, I think you gotta start making some "hard" decisions. Come October, if he hasn't started hitting better, he's not a "must start" in the playoffs. You gotta go with the best 3 OF hitters at point and if he's one of them, great. And lets keep in mind, as bad as Yeli has been for the Brewers, Bellinger has been WAAAAY worse for the Dodgers.

 

Bellinger is trending upwards though. Small sample but their last 7 games:

 

Yeli: .048/.130/.048

Beli: .320/.370/.640

 

This isn't even comparable at all...there is a two week gap during Yelich's "last 7 games"

 

Again, he clearly isn't the MVP Yelich the Brewer's thought they were extending, but he is a much better hitter then whatever recent sample size you want to pull. Let's give the guy time to get some consistent at bats, which he really hasn't had in over a month, in before we make any "hard decisions"

[timpep]

 

Again, he clearly isn't the MVP Yelich the Brewer's thought they were extending, but he is a much better hitter then whatever recent sample size you want to pull. Let's give the guy time to get some consistent at bats, which he really hasn't had in over a month, in before we make any "hard decisions"

 

He did say "come October". I think that implies we give Yelich some time.

[Jopal78]

I'll still happily defend Braun's contract. It just wasn't that bad. He provided a lot of hard-to-quantify things and things that come up time and time again on BF that most of the brethren here just don't want to acknowledge or admit. There is a major off-field component of those monster contracts. I never thought Braun's play declined to such a level that is a bad deal with all of those things considered. Yelich is not doing enough on the field where those other things matter in my opinion. I had been saying for a long time that I think Yelich's best play is behind him, but that I think also think he will be better than this. I'm just not confident in the second part of that anymore.

 

I agree, the Brewers pretty much got fair value for Braun's 2nd extension. I think simple research would show that its a 50-50 shot at best if a hitter who played well enough to earn the 100+ guarantee mega-contract lives up to it by the end.

 

Some other hitters playing on huge contracts signed at or near the same time:

 

Joey Votto hit .293/.413/.489 was paid $117 million dollars '16-'20 (was 10 year extension signed in 2012)

Jason Heyward hit .252/.327/.383 was paid 119 million dollars '16-'20

Chris Davis hit .196/.291/.379 was paid $115 million dollars '16-'20

Yoenis Cespedes hit .277/.345/.523 and was paid $106 million dollars '16-'20 (including revisions to contract following horse farm accident).

Justin Upton hit .250/.331/.477 and was paid $99 million dollars '16-'20

Miguel Cabrera hit .282/.359/.455 was paid $116 million dollars (part of 8 year extension in 2014; was already under contract through 2016)

 

It's easy to look back and 2nd guess and wish the team would have used the money differently. Just as I'm sure the fans of every team above would complain what a boneheaded mistake it was to sign any of the above players.

 

Same deal with Yelich, he's got time to make it right but he certainly earned the $100 million dollar contract and I'm sure the front office probably has even more information than the fans on how these type of deals turn out and what value they provide not only on the field but to the brand and in terms of revenue.