The struggles of Yelich and Hiura - Let the numbers talk!

[adambr2]

Heck, the Mariners had to eat some of A-Rods salary just to trade him to the Yankees.

 

Except A-Rod signed as a free agent with the Rangers before being traded to the Yankees with cash for Alfonso Soriano. The M’s never compensated anyone to take A-Rod

 

Yeah, I meant the Rangers.

[superfly]

If we wanted to dump Yelich would anyone be willing to take his contract.

 

 

I’m sorry, which part of the .420 OBP are you fed up with? Man ain’t even at his best and still on base nearly 1 out of 2 at bats. Sounds like a great idea to dump, maybe we can find some Yuni or Perez to soak those ABs up.

[DHonks]

Yeli has never been a true power hitter. He’s been a whole-field hitter with a good eye that manages to hit quite a few homers. He’ll be fine. It would help if we had another bat in our lineup. He’s missing hittable pitches, but he’s also being pitched carefully

[brewcrewdue80]

Yelich has reverted back to low launch angle. 2.5 currently via Statcast. Whereas he was 4.7, 5, and 11.3 the 3 seasons up to his knee injury. You could also have fears that his Exit Velocity has dropped 2-3mph. Not fully sure where to think on that since 2020 he EV was his highest officially. His Max EV bests his 2018 max. Amazing to only have a launch angle of 2.5degrees thus far.

 

Hiura still seems a lost season for him. Can Milw find a 1b to finish out this season? This is so important I'd honestly give up Freddy to acquire Alex Kirilloff. (there'd need to be more back for Milw on that suggestion, swap Cain and Donaldson?)

[pacopete4]

This is so important I'd honestly give up Freddy to acquire Alex Kirilloff. (there'd need to be more back for Milw on that suggestion, swap Cain and Donaldson?)

 

No. Just no.

[MrTPlush]

Was hoping Hiura would magically become somewhat competent at the plate, but hardly surprising. Always seemed like a coincidental hot streak when he got called up versus something that would last. That being said, lets see what the next few weeks brings.

 

As far as Yelich, sigh. People can sugar coat it all they want, but Yelich with an .800 OPS is just not good. 7 doubles and 5 homers is not good. He is worse than his Miami days at this point. If his stat line was like 2016, I would just shrug my shoulders...but its not that good.

 

Weirdest of all dude is hitting for a .729 OPS at Miller Park....what the heck? His career OPS at Miller Park is over 1.000, even in 2020 it was over .900.

[JohnBriggs12]

Well they can still move on (and probably should) from Hiura, they can't move on from Yelich. Which is why development of Mitchell and Gray is so critical. They absolutely need them to be core players in 2023 and 2024 respectively.

[sveumrules]

He is worse than his Miami days at this point.

 

Weirdest of all dude is hitting for a .729 OPS at Miller Park....what the heck?

 

Yelich 2021 wRC+: 123

Yelich MIA wRC+: 122

 

He's had 99 PAs at AmFam so far this year. Small samples produce seemingly weird results.

[Roderick]

What is the average OPS nowadays (2020-21 or just 2021 if you want), versus the historical norm, or recent historical norm.

 

I'm under the impression there is quite a difference. So an .800 OPS in 2021, would equal an .840 OPS in 2018 - does that sound in the ballpark?

[brewers888]

What is the average OPS nowadays (2020-21 or just 2021 if you want), versus the historical norm, or recent historical norm.

 

I'm under the impression there is quite a difference. So an .800 OPS in 2021, would equal an .840 OPS in 2018 - does that sound in the ballpark?

 

Yelich's OPS is all based on his extremely high walk percentage which probably is unsustainable if he continues to slug below .400. I don't know what is going on with him but his mechanics look completely messed up; he seems to not be bending his front knee properly which might mean he never recovered from fouling the ball off the knee.

[brewers888]

Attanasio made a big mistake extending Yelich after his serious injury without seeing how he would perform after getting hurt. All we can do is hope that MVP Yelich shows up again soon but its not looking good right now. This owner is very impulsive in his dealings with players as we have seen time and time again from his signing Suppan and Lohse to the second extension of Braun and now this Yelich deal.

 

The Brewers would be better off if Attanasio stayed out of personnel moves and just let Stearns do his job but thats probably not realistic at all. I would be very surprised if Stearns was in favor of this extension and now we have to live with it and hope that the 2018-19 version shows up which looks less likely by the day.

[MrTPlush]

He is worse than his Miami days at this point.

 

Weirdest of all dude is hitting for a .729 OPS at Miller Park....what the heck?

 

Yelich 2021 wRC+: 123

Yelich MIA wRC+: 122

 

He's had 99 PAs at AmFam so far this year. Small samples produce seemingly weird results.

 

I was simply referring to his actual stats being lesser (though not by much) than they were in Miami. His slugging percentage is way down this year, 2020 was more in line with what he did in Miami. I mean if Yelich wasn't walking like Barry Bonds he would be the LF version of Orlando Arcia.

 

On another note I think there are a lot of reasons for his downfall. He is indeed losing the shift game. I also see that he is chasing way less. 26% in his MVP caliber seasons, but only 17% the last two years. He is also swinging at the first pitch way less (nearly 30% to now less than 20%) and also swinging less in general (45% to now about 38%). I like walks, but is Yelich becoming too 'unaggresive' at the plate? Doesn't help he is whiffing way more when he does swing, thus leading to a lot more K's.

 

Additionally, he has only managed one opposite field homer.

Edited July 6, 2021 by MrTPlush

[roadcrew3]

I think Yelich not being the same player since his contract extension is more correlated than Yelich not being the same player since his injury. At this point his injury occurred so long ago, and he has taken so many swings since then, that any concern he might have had in his head about reinjuring it is long gone. Has his work ethic changed at all though now that he secured his bag and gained celebrity status as a top player in the game??

 

You can point the finger at Attanasio and the front office for a lot of different things, but extending Yelich isn't one in my opinion. He was going to be a back-to-back MVP who wanted to be in Milwaukee and took a friendly deal (at the time) relative to what he would've got in Free Agency. In a market like MKE, you do that every time. How quickly we forget that at the time he signed his deal, he was regularly being compared to a guy like Trout...he was widely considered one of the top players in the league. Him seemingly losing his power over night isn't really something you could have projected. But, as I mentioned in an earlier post, I think his lack of power is also related to our weaker lineups as well. Even with his EV down a tick or two, he still hits the ball hard. Give the guy more fastballs in the zone and we'll see more power.

[brewcrewdue80]

Again its not power but averaging hitting a ball the height of the pitcher on the mound. Not going to clear any fences hitting a ball lower than they are.

[MrTPlush]

Again its not power but averaging hitting a ball the height of the pitcher on the mound. Not going to clear any fences hitting a ball lower than they are.

 

The entire strike zone is under half the height of the wall. Not to mention he isn't hitting doubles either so I think it is more than that. I have seen exponentially more golf swing HRs than HRs where they swing over their head. Actually, not sure I have ever seen that.

[Jopal78]

What is the average OPS nowadays (2020-21 or just 2021 if you want), versus the historical norm, or recent historical norm.

 

I'm under the impression there is quite a difference. So an .800 OPS in 2021, would equal an .840 OPS in 2018 - does that sound in the ballpark?

 

Yelich's OPS is all based on his extremely high walk percentage which probably is unsustainable if he continues to slug below .400. I don't know what is going on with him but his mechanics look completely messed up; he seems to not be bending his front knee properly which might mean he never recovered from fouling the ball off the knee.

 

It was a fracture of his knee cap which healed on its own without surgery. At worst he would have had to wear a locked brace on his leg for 6 weeks. Yelich is still a good baserunner, and is never described as "lumbering" which one would expect if there were any lingering issues. His fractured patella has nothing to do with his current performance.

 

Rather, take a look at Yelich's career line before he was traded to Milwaukee .290/.365/.406. Since the end of 2019 his OBP is .379 and his Slugging is .410 right in line with his Miami numbers. It just might be who he is: high on-base percentage, and more of a doubles/triples hitter than a player who will regularly stroke 35+ homeruns a year.

 

His production in 2018 and 2019 certainly appear to be outliers and likely will be the two best of his career.

[Baldkin]

What is the average OPS nowadays (2020-21 or just 2021 if you want), versus the historical norm, or recent historical norm.

 

I'm under the impression there is quite a difference. So an .800 OPS in 2021, would equal an .840 OPS in 2018 - does that sound in the ballpark?

 

League average is a .716 OPS, which is a 97OPS+ (pitchers, ya know).

 

2018 that was a .728 OPS, or about a 2% difference.

[jonescm128]

What is the average OPS nowadays (2020-21 or just 2021 if you want), versus the historical norm, or recent historical norm.

 

I'm under the impression there is quite a difference. So an .800 OPS in 2021, would equal an .840 OPS in 2018 - does that sound in the ballpark?

 

Yelich's OPS is all based on his extremely high walk percentage which probably is unsustainable if he continues to slug below .400. I don't know what is going on with him but his mechanics look completely messed up; he seems to not be bending his front knee properly which might mean he never recovered from fouling the ball off the knee.

 

It was a fracture of his knee cap which healed on its own without surgery. At worst he would have had to wear a locked brace on his leg for 6 weeks. Yelich is still a good baserunner, and is never described as "lumbering" which one would expect if there were any lingering issues. His fractured patella has nothing to do with his current performance.

 

Rather, take a look at Yelich's career line before he was traded to Milwaukee .290/.365/.406. Since the end of 2019 his OBP is .379 and his Slugging is .410 right in line with his Miami numbers. It just might be who he is: high on-base percentage, and more of a doubles/triples hitter than a player who will regularly stroke 35+ homeruns a year.

 

His production in 2018 and 2019 certainly appear to be outliers and likely will be the two best of his career.

 

That would be very bad. The Brewers aren't paying him to be a high OBP and doubles/triples hitter. They trusted his 2018 and 2019 enough to give him that massive deal and if this current version of Yelich is what we are getting going forward then this is a major bust of a contract.

[jonescm128]

 

Your weekly Christian Yelich power progression update

 

Slowly trending upwards...

 

June 16 - .385 SLG/.137 ISO

June 23 - .397 SLG/.137 ISO

June 29 - .404 SLG/.151 ISO

 

June 16 - .385 SLG/.137 ISO

June 23 - .397 SLG/.137 ISO

June 29 - .404 SLG/.151 ISO

July 6 - .387 SLG/.143 ISO

[DHonks]

Wasn’t he hitting like this in ‘18 before his torrid 2nd half??

[ReverendBrewmeister]

Wasn’t he hitting like this in ‘18 before his torrid 2nd half??

Christian Yelich - First Half 2018 (through All Star Game) / 2021 (through July 5)

G 82 / 53

PA 357 / 215

H 93 / 41

2B 16 / 7

3B 2 / 1

HR 11 / 5

BB 33 / 45

K 83 / 61

BA .292 / .244

OBP .364 / .405

SLG .459 / .387

OPS .823 / .792

BAbip .363 / .350

 

There seems to be some similarity. Though it looks like Yelich was having a bit more success in 2018 getting hits and slugging, while in 2021 he is more successful in drawing walks and in his BB/K ratio.

 

Edited to add BAbip stat.

Edited July 7, 2021 by ReverendBrewmeister

[Boomer5]

Yelich should hit lead off.

[dlk9s]

I think this should be the end of Haines

 

I see where you're coming from, but I don't think he should die.

[dlk9s]

You'd most likely have to eat something significant to trade Yelich.

 

So we need Joey Chestnut as our GM. I like where you're going with this....

[adambr2]

You'd most likely have to eat something significant to trade Yelich.

 

So we need Joey Chestnut as our GM. I like where you're going with this....

 

I'm not saying we should. I'm just answering the question. That's just the reality of most of those types of trades.