The struggles of Yelich and Hiura - Let the numbers talk!

[owbc]

You don't move a .360 OBP hitter with plus speed+baserunning down in the lineup. He has the second-best OBP on the team. He should be in the #1 or #2 spot. Period.

 

The game of baseball doesn't care about salary or WAR per $. You put your best OBP and speed guys at the top of the order.

[wibadgers23]

I wonder what his ground ball rate is compared to 2018/2019? It has to be way higher now. It just seems like he gets on top of everything. How many times has he hit a little dribbler to the right side for an easy out? Not sure what he has to do to correct that in his swing?

[adambr2]

Wonder how'd he react to batting 8th behind JBJ and the pitcher behind him? Would it light a fire under him? Or has he just cashed it all in and would crumble even further having his feelings hurt?

 

Why would you bat Yelich behind JBJ? Yelich, for all his struggles this year, has still been far more useful in his ABs than JBJ. I don't think the issue is that he lacks the fire to do better.

[sveumrules]

I wonder what his ground ball rate is compared to 2018/2019? It has to be way higher now. It just seems like he gets on top of everything. How many times has he hit a little dribbler to the right side for an easy out? Not sure what he has to do to correct that in his swing?

 

2018 GB%: 51.8

2019 GB%: 43.2

2020 GB%: 50.8

2021 GB%: 52.4

 

The only season Yelich's batted ball profile with the Brewers really changed was 2019, though he did run a 59.1 GB% from 2013-17 with the Marlins.

 

There was an article at FanGraphs earlier this year about Juan Soto's batted ball profile that included this pretty telling graph of GB% vs wRC+ from 2018-20. Yelich is the dot just above and to the right of the Soto dot...

 

[timpep]

You don't move a .360 OBP hitter with plus speed+baserunning down in the lineup. He has the second-best OBP on the team. He should be in the #1 or #2 spot. Period.

 

The game of baseball doesn't care about salary or WAR per $. You put your best OBP and speed guys at the top of the order.

 

 

I guess it depends on if you think we're getting post or pre all-star break Yelich. Or maybe some combination. His post break OBP is only .309. Now that he's not being pitched around his OBP is dropping accordingly. I don't think he's among the top 2 guys most likely to get on base at this point in the season.

[owbc]

You don't move a .360 OBP hitter with plus speed+baserunning down in the lineup. He has the second-best OBP on the team. He should be in the #1 or #2 spot. Period.

 

The game of baseball doesn't care about salary or WAR per $. You put your best OBP and speed guys at the top of the order.

 

 

I guess it depends on if you think we're getting post or pre all-star break Yelich. Or maybe some combination. His post break OBP is only .309. Now that he's not being pitched around his OBP is dropping accordingly. I don't think he's among the top 2 guys most likely to get on base at this point in the season.

 

I disagree. You go with the full season or multi season sample. No doubt that Yelich is slumping right now, but when will he break out of his slump? Tomorrow? Next week? Never? Maybe he will never be a .430 OBP guy again, but if there's been one consistent characteristic of Yelich it's his OBP. Even going back to his Miami days.

 

Even to the untrained eye it's clear that Yelich's problems are mostly related to his swing. Which honestly is one of the better problems to have (assuming the swing issues are not related to injury, which they might be). In theory it's correctable. Just two weeks ago he was scorching everything he saw, although his launch angle tends to be less-than-ideal.

[adambr2]

You don't move a .360 OBP hitter with plus speed+baserunning down in the lineup. He has the second-best OBP on the team. He should be in the #1 or #2 spot. Period.

 

The game of baseball doesn't care about salary or WAR per $. You put your best OBP and speed guys at the top of the order.

 

 

I guess it depends on if you think we're getting post or pre all-star break Yelich. Or maybe some combination. His post break OBP is only .309. Now that he's not being pitched around his OBP is dropping accordingly. I don't think he's among the top 2 guys most likely to get on base at this point in the season.

 

I disagree. You go with the full season or multi season sample. No doubt that Yelich is slumping right now, but when will he break out of his slump? Tomorrow? Next week? Never? Maybe he will never be a .430 OBP guy again, but if there's been one consistent characteristic of Yelich it's his OBP. Even going back to his Miami days.

 

Even to the untrained eye it's clear that Yelich's problems are mostly related to his swing. Which honestly is one of the better problems to have (assuming the swing issues are not related to injury, which they might be). In theory it's correctable. Just two weeks ago he was scorching everything he saw, although his launch angle tends to be less-than-ideal.

 

It's been 2 seasons now. It's not really a slump anymore. Sure, the multi-season sample matters, but recency matters too. The power has disappeared even more than last season. There isn't much left besides the OBP, which is still less than his career averages and way less than '18 and '19.

 

It's very likely that the larger sample size of his career averages which included his two years that now look like the exception, are not indicative of what we can expect moving forward.

[brewcrewdue80]

Well I mention 8th since he seems clearly the best base stealer on the team. So get on base, have pitcher bunt him to 2nd or 3rd.

Why behind JBJ? Its sarcasm. JBJ isnt going to give the following batter many RBI opportunities. It's just a slap to his face to ruin his numbers on a season by getting dozen or so fewer PAs.

 

As to groundballs-This is his launch angles

2017. 4.7

2018 5

2019 11.3

2020 7.1

2021 3.8

The 2 MVP seasons he also only struck out 20pct of time.

While 2020 was 30.8pct and this season 25.3.

 

Still hits the ball hard but not like 2018 with 5pct Launch angle. And the 3.8 launch angle is going to have a worse BABIP. Needs to increase that launch angle closer to 10 if we will ever see MVP Yelich again.

[MNBrew]

I'm not big into launch angle, but I buy into the theory that the issue is his swing which makes this ^^^ explanation makes a ton of sense. Too many easy grounders when he's capable of better.

 

I'm not into launch angle at all for the sake of HRs. But the solution for too many easy grounders obviously lies in driving the balls more of the time somewhere other than on the ground.

 

On a related note, I'm not into JBJ at all because he's somehow not into getting hits. Remember a few years ago when Manny Pina somehow had about the worst BA w/ RISP in the history of mankind? JBJ is just about as worthless when it comes to hitting a baseball at all. Just imagine how much more productive the Brewers offense might be if JBJ were hitting anywhere close to his now-.231 career BA!!! I'd take that 65-point jump in a heartbeat!

[sveumrules]

Just imagine how much more productive the Brewers offense might be if JBJ were hitting anywhere close to his now-.231 career BA!!! I'd take that 65-point jump in a heartbeat!

 

JBJ's career average per 162 games has been -9 batting runs over 600 PAs.

 

So far this year with the Brewers he is at -31 over 403 PAs. If he was having an average season that would only be -6, so a difference of 25 runs or about 2-3 wins.

 

We might have even clinched already.

[Lathund]

All true. I'd guess a hurt on the OBP the 2nd half of the season is pitching no longer being afraid him. He was probably able to milk a bunch of walks to start the year based on his reputation, but once everyone figured out he has no power there's not much reason to be careful with him. Which also kind of makes sense as to being able to increase his BA with better pitches, but OBP going down at the same time.

 

Prior to the last week or so he had been looking pretty good, lots of hard contact and I think I saw some hard %s had him near tops in the league during the 1-2 months prior. But even still when that was looking good he had a lack of HR power, which is a problem when owed this much for that long. You don't pay that for a good contact hitter. Still confident he'll be like he has been the last couple months (good/ok, but not near what he was) for the playoffs. Which obviously is better than what we he looked like prior.

 

Give another offseason to get the knee and back issues behind him, clear his head and make some tweaks and hopefully he's back to clear all star level next year. Don't think we should be ruling that out yet by any means (though obviously I'm not saying it's a lock either).

 

That DP to blow the game last night was a definite 'cmon man' from me but with more adult language. Just terrible on a 3-1 pitch

 

Yelich is once again slumping with another donut today. He is either topping everything or missing it all together. In Sept... 10 for 49 - 0 HRs - 4 RBIs - 3 BBs - 13 Ks. With Urias also slumping, Adames/Tellez out, and Garcia day-to-day, the Crew can't afford to have Yelich tank and go into the playoffs severly slumping.

 

Urias slumping?

 

.263/.333/.474 over the last 7 days, .300/.391/.500 in the last 14. .261/.340/.432 in the last 30. If that's slumping, you have some mighty high expectations...

[brewcrewdue80]

Just imagine how much more productive the Brewers offense might be if JBJ were hitting anywhere close to his now-.231 career BA!!! I'd take that 65-point jump in a heartbeat!

 

JBJ's career average per 162 games has been -9 batting runs over 600 PAs.

 

So far this year with the Brewers he is at -31 over 403 PAs. If he was having an average season that would only be -6, so a difference of 25 runs or about 2-3 wins.

 

We might have even clinched already.

 

I kinda thought 5runs was worth 1 win and if so that is a 4-5 win gain vs loss by him.

[sveumrules]

Just imagine how much more productive the Brewers offense might be if JBJ were hitting anywhere close to his now-.231 career BA!!! I'd take that 65-point jump in a heartbeat!

 

JBJ's career average per 162 games has been -9 batting runs over 600 PAs.

 

So far this year with the Brewers he is at -31 over 403 PAs. If he was having an average season that would only be -6, so a difference of 25 runs or about 2-3 wins.

 

We might have even clinched already.

 

I kinda thought 5runs was worth 1 win and if so that is a 4-5 win gain vs loss by him.

 

The actual value varies slightly from season to season based on run environment & other factors, but for quick/dirty purposes 10 runs = 1 win...

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_runs_to_wins.shtml

 

Looking at Brewers this year Adames (33 RAR, 3.2 WAR), Avisail (31 RAR, 3.0 WAR), Kolten (29 RAR, 2.8 WAR), etc

[wibadgers23]

Is it possible to get a refund on a $200+ million purchase?

[timpep]

Is it possible to get a refund on a $200+ million purchase?

 

I bet the Brewers are kicking themselves for not ponying up for the protection plan. They'd probably love to trade in Yelich for a new Yelich.

[AZBrewCrew]

Yelich = Ryan Braun 2.0

 

I get why they signed him to that contract though,MVP season and signing a “big star” puts butts in seats

[young guns]

Somehow it seems fitting that our season hinged upon yelichs ability to reach base and he did not.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yelich = Ryan Braun 2.0

 

Not even close. We wish that were that case right now.

[adambr2]

Yelich's "nobody needs help facing you" jab at Darvish has really aged poorly.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yelich's "nobody needs help facing you" jab at Darvish has really aged poorly.

 

actually thought of that tweet this morning, for some reason.

[Eye Black]

Imagine going back to the Fall of 2019 and trying to explain to someone…

 

Over the next two years a global pandemic is going to impact almost every aspect of our daily lives while forever changing society as we knew it, and Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger are going to be among the very worst regulars on Postseason teams.

 

I’m not even sure which statement I would’ve had more initial questions about.

[brewers888]

Maybe Mark A will finally learn his lesson and not interfere and let Stearns do his job. It is clear that Stearns had nothing to do with this contract extension.

[dlk9s]

Maybe Mark A will finally learn his lesson and not interfere and let Stearns do his job. It is clear that Stearns had nothing to do with this contract extension.

 

Citation needed. Thanks!

[brewers888]

Yelich himself admitted he initiated talks with ownership about a contract extension and its not the first time Attanasio has decided to sign players long term on his own. He gave Braun the second extension, and signed both Lohse and Suppan on his own as well. The guy owns the team and can do what he wants but its extremely obvious that he was the driving force behind the Yelich signing.

[umphrey]

At this point I’m still pretty convinced that Yelich wanted to cash while he was still getting away with cheating or drugs or hiding a degenerative back/knee/whatever injury