Brewers trade Feyereisen, Rasmussen to Rays for SS Willy Adames, RHP Trevor Richards

[LouisEly]

We will have the best SS/2nd defensive combo in a very long time.

And the best SS/2B/CF combo, which means the pitching doesn't have to be as good to give you a shot at winning.

[SRB]

Rasmussen however was a well regarded pitching prospect since he was in high school. Sure he’s had 2 TJ procedures, but he’s a healthy power arm now and was exclusively used as a starter in college and the minor leagues. He has the most upside and team control of anyone in the trade.

 

I don't see how anyone could think this unless you were expecting Rasmussen to become a top-of-the-rotation starter. Relievers are not that valuable. Honestly, a 2.0-3.0 WAR everyday SS is probably more valuable than Hader.

 

Rasmussen was not even a consensus top-10 prospect in a terrible Brewers system. I think people are conflating his original upside as a former first-round draft pick who we managed to draft in the sixth round, with him being an actual top or former top prospect.

[SomewhereInTime]

Rasmussen however was a well regarded pitching prospect since he was in high school. Sure he’s had 2 TJ procedures, but he’s a healthy power arm now and was exclusively used as a starter in college and the minor leagues. He has the most upside and team control of anyone in the trade.

 

I don't see how anyone could think this unless you were expecting Rasmussen to become a top-of-the-rotation starter. Relievers are not that valuable. Honestly, a 2.0-3.0 WAR everyday SS is probably more valuable than Hader.

 

Rasmussen was not even a consensus top-10 prospect in a terrible Brewers system. I think people are conflating his original upside as a former first-round draft pick who we managed to draft in the sixth round, with him being an actual top or former top prospect.

 

If we're looking at the aggregate I might agree, though Hader has posted a 2.7 WAR for a season in the past. Hader will only pitch around 70 innings tops. However, the innings Hader will pitch will be the most important innings and in the postseason he will pitch big innngs every game.

 

Now when you're talking about middle relievers like these two, yes absolutely

[trwi7]

Rasmussen however was a well regarded pitching prospect since he was in high school. Sure he’s had 2 TJ procedures, but he’s a healthy power arm now and was exclusively used as a starter in college and the minor leagues. He has the most upside and team control of anyone in the trade.

 

Just because he was used as a starter in college and the minors doesn't mean that's what he's going to be in the majors and make no mistake, he's not going to be a starter in the majors unless he's one of those "openers" that start a game for a couple of innings, which is exactly what his starting consisted of in the minors.

 

Fun fact btw: Adames is a month younger than Rasmussen and much more accomplished as a major league player. There's just not much that's exciting about a 25 year old with two TJ surgeries who gives up more homers than you would want and walks a ton of guys on top of that.

 

Going back to the arm discussion. I think it's fair to say that Urias' arm is below average for a shortstop.

[PeaveyFury]

Rasmussen’s ceiling is perhaps that of Hader, but that HAS to be viewed as unlikely at best. As noted, a truly elite reliever like Hader is capable of a 2-3 WAR season, but even Hader hasn’t been able to do that consistently. By contrast, Adames has provided nearly two WAR in a season just defensively. If he goes from just average with his bat to even just above average, his productivity blows what most relievers can expect to do in a season out of the water.

[Simba2020]

I really don't think it's fair to compare reliever WAR to a regular player's WAR. If we concede that Hader is 2-3 WAR player (extremely elite for a reliever) he is worth more than a 2-3 WAR positional player.

[roadcrew3]

It’s crazy what two months of the season has on the perception of this trade. If we acquired Adames in the off-season for Rasmussen and JP we would feel like we just committed robbery. If Adames becomes a serviceable player at SS then this trade will be favorable for the Brewers regardless of what the relievers we gave up turn into. Neither of those guys were key long term pieces to this team. They are good players no doubt, but our experience should teach us that it’s much easier to fill in middle relievers than it is to find a good SS.

[DHonks]

Rasmussen has a high ceiling, but right bow he has a straight fastball with no command. He supposedly has a plus slider, but we haven’t seen it. He can be a productive big leaguer, but right now he has no business being in close games. Maybe in 2-3 years he’ll be a stud

[MadThinker88]

Perhaps a factor in this deal is Stearns realizing he will be unable to compete with other clubs on the FA SS market this coming off-season.

 

NYY & Texas are going to be looking for upgrades so the price of Story (let alone Cory S) will be untenable.

Others are not thrilled with Carlos Correa. Hence getting Adames now.

[brooks_quichenick]

I really don't think it's fair to compare reliever WAR to a regular player's WAR. If we concede that Hader is 2-3 WAR player (extremely elite for a reliever) he is worth more than a 2-3 WAR positional player.

 

Agreed, each should be compared to their respective positions.

[Eye Black]

Perhaps a factor in this deal is Stearns realizing he will be unable to compete with other clubs on the FA SS market this coming off-season.

 

NYY & Texas are going to be looking for upgrades so the price of Story (let alone Cory S) will be untenable.

Others are not thrilled with Carlos Correa. Hence getting Adames now.

As much as it’s been a position of need, I agree that there was very little chance they were going to have a realistic chance at the top end of the upcoming shortstop market. It certainly makes sense for them to make a move now to secure the player they see slotting in at shortstop for the foreseeable future.

 

I am excited to watch Adames play. I know he’s going to strike out a ton, but he certainly also makes plenty of loud contact. Welcome aboard, Willy.

[Eye Black]

One thing I would be interested to find out is whether the Reds made a serious offer for Adames at some point over the past several months. When it was clear they needed a shortstop Adames was linked to them as a possibility, but I think it was more speculation based on the Reds need for a SS than any specific or verified trade rumor reporting.

[Jopal78]

Rasmussen’s ceiling is perhaps that of Hader, but that HAS to be viewed as unlikely at best. As noted, a truly elite reliever like Hader is capable of a 2-3 WAR season, but even Hader hasn’t been able to do that consistently. By contrast, Adames has provided nearly two WAR in a season just defensively. If he goes from just average with his bat to even just above average, his productivity blows what most relievers can expect to do in a season out of the water.

 

If only it were that simple just to plug one players WAR in and draw a conclusion. I’ll be willing to bet the difference between Urias and Adames will be offset by the difference between Lindbolm, Yardley and Rasmussen and Feyereisen.

 

They’re deep in the bullpen but it’s a gamble that they have a better chance to win counting on Lindblom, Yardley etc and adding a better shortstop

[adambr2]

Rasmussen’s ceiling is perhaps that of Hader, but that HAS to be viewed as unlikely at best. As noted, a truly elite reliever like Hader is capable of a 2-3 WAR season, but even Hader hasn’t been able to do that consistently. By contrast, Adames has provided nearly two WAR in a season just defensively. If he goes from just average with his bat to even just above average, his productivity blows what most relievers can expect to do in a season out of the water.

 

If only it were that simple just to plug one players WAR in and draw a conclusion. I’ll be willing to bet the difference between Urias and Adames will be offset by the difference between Lindbolm, Yardley and Rasmussen and Feyereisen.

 

They’re deep in the bullpen but it’s a gamble that they have a better chance to win counting on Lindblom, Yardley etc and adding a better shortstop

 

I wouldn't call this bullpen deep. They have some good arms at the top. It's a pretty sharp drop-off once you get to 4-7. We will have to see what Richards brings to the table.

[PeaveyFury]

I’ll be willing to bet the difference between Urias and Adames will be offset by the difference between Lindbolm, Yardley and Rasmussen and Feyereisen.

 

I’d take that bet 8 days a week.

[Sixtofan]

I’ll be willing to bet the difference between Urias and Adames will be offset by the difference between Lindbolm, Yardley and Rasmussen and Feyereisen.

 

I’d take that bet 8 days a week.

 

 

But it isn’t a comparison of Adames vs Urias, it is Adames plus Urias vs Urias plus (someone else - Reyes maybe?)

[brewmann04]

I still trying to figure why Trade Arcia so early this season? I am Bummed that Urias is going to the H Perez role now, but if Lauer can turn it around the trade would not be so bad. But i trying to figure out how the two Hitting coaches have jobs. I guess Yelich as their spoke person carries a lot of weight.

[xisxisxis]

Rasmussen’s ceiling is perhaps that of Hader, but that HAS to be viewed as unlikely at best. As noted, a truly elite reliever like Hader is capable of a 2-3 WAR season, but even Hader hasn’t been able to do that consistently. By contrast, Adames has provided nearly two WAR in a season just defensively. If he goes from just average with his bat to even just above average, his productivity blows what most relievers can expect to do in a season out of the water.

 

If only it were that simple just to plug one players WAR in and draw a conclusion. I’ll be willing to bet the difference between Urias and Adames will be offset by the difference between Lindbolm, Yardley and Rasmussen and Feyereisen.

 

They’re deep in the bullpen but it’s a gamble that they have a better chance to win counting on Lindblom, Yardley etc and adding a better shortstop

Urias amazingly has been the better hitter this year (89 wRC+ to 77 for Adames in almost identical PA). The disturbing trend for Adames is that his GB/FB% has cratered to 0.63 for 2021 while his career (including 2021) is 1.43. He's struggling big time with the current baseball environment of doctored balls and high strike calls. He's also having the hightest K% for his career so whatever he is doing to adjust to the current batting environment are failing big time. Sure he might get straightened out like all the other hitters under Haines, but he could continue to struggle as much or more than Luis. Then the only win is the difference in Defense. I am less negative than others on the trade, but it isn't a help for 2021 move at all and with the status of the bullpen any gains wil be offset by more innings from the likes of Yardley, Boxberger and Lindblom. The pen outside of Hader (and possibly Williams, but he is looking like 2020 was a mirage) is pretty meh to pretty BAD, Rasmussen was looking better after a rough start and Feyereisen was likely better then any other reliever (outside of Hader/Williams), the idea that the bullpen doesn't matter is interesting given the need to limit IP for the starters...

[danzig6767]

Claiming he has a lack of arm strength is simply a false narrative.

They eye test tells me differently.

 

Why is it a false narrative, because you disagree?

 

On numerous occasions this season, his arm has looked weak, not nearly as strong as you'd expect a starting MLB SS arm should look. Part of it may be that he just doesn't compare to Arcia when it comes to arm strength, the other part is that his arm just isn't that strong.

From what i recall, most of his throwing errors came on grounders pretty much right to him and thus Urias didn't feel like he had to put a lot on his throw to first, so he made that looping type of throw which he'd then sail it right over the firstbaseman's head.

 

On plays though where Urias didn't feel like he had plenty of time and instead he just had to react quickly and put more on his throws, he didn't have the same accuracy problems.

[AKCheesehead]

Regarding the reliever WAR comments upthread I have to agree. Ac closer’s WAR just mentally seems inaccurate. Say you have an elite closer who amasses 3 WAR for the season. I don’t buy for a second that the team only gets a 3 win difference between him and a replacement level guy as their closer.

[SRB]

In my original post I didn't mean to suggest that WAR should be compared 1:1, since I agree that it does not fully take into account situational leverage. But if you had told me during the offseason that we were trading Hader and the centerpiece of the return was Willy Adames, I honestly would not have been surprised (whether or not I thought it was a good deal).

[Eye Black]

Trade article from FanGraphs: Willy Adames is Headed to Milwaukee

 

 

Feyereisen pitched the 6th inning for the Rays tonight in what was a tie game at the time against the Blue Jays. He went 1.0 IP and didn’t allow a hit while striking out one (Bichette), walking one (Vlad Jr.), and inducing an inning ending double play (Teoscar Hernandez). The Rays new call up for shortstop, Taylor Walls, had two doubles in his debut.

 

Also, this Rays-centric Twitter account has high hopes for Feyereisen:

 

There is nothing stopping J.P. Feyereisen from being legitimately one of the best relievers in the sport. His..

 

-FB gets more "rise" relative to its velo than ANY pitcher in MLB

-CH has the HIGHEST Whiff% in MLB (61.4%)

-SL has a .200 BA against, 42.1 Whiff%

 

———————————

 

I think the Rays are the best organization in MLB at improving a pitchers command. They almost always target P’s with great stuff but iffy command and it almost always improves upon arrival. Today is just another example.

 

I do think both Feyereisen and Rasmussen were continuing to improve with the Brewers, and will likely do well with the Rays.

 

Regardless, I am excited to see Willy Adames at shortstop in the coming years. The Brewers will now have Adames under control for his age-25 through age-28 seasons. I think there’s a decent chance Adames has a 4+ WAR season or two over that span. As much as this trade helps the shortstop position immediately, I think the biggest payoff for the Brewers is likely to be realized in the coming years.

 

One other random observation, it sort of feels like this might be a big weight off of Luis Urias’ shoulders. He seemed to have bonded quickly with Arcia and spoke of how sad he was when he found out he’d been traded earlier this season. Urias came up through the minors with Fernando Tatis, and sort of took a complementary role to Tatis’ burgeoning stardom. I saw it reported that Urias met Adames during warmups with a big hug and the two were paired up throughout warmups. As silly as it might sound I am not really convinced Urias was totally comfortable in a position where he was the clear everyday shortstop. I think it’s at least possible he’ll be better in a lower pressure utility role.

[reillymcshane]

I like Rasmussen and Feyereisen, but I'll take Adames in a heartbeat for them. The guy was a 4.0 WAR player in 2019. 1.9 WAR in 2020 in just 54 games. 4.0 WAR players are good to get. Yes, he's having a tough 2021, but I'm hoping he can rebound. If he can, that gives us a lot of control of a quality SS. I love that idea.

[rickh150]

Hopefully, Adames can give them a needed spark.

[clancyphile]

Regardless, I am excited to see Willy Adames at shortstop in the coming years. The Brewers will now have Adames under control for his age-25 through age-28 seasons. I think there’s a decent chance Adames has a 4+ WAR season or two over that span. As much as this trade helps the shortstop position immediately, I think the biggest payoff for the Brewers is likely to be realized in the coming years.

 

One other random observation, it sort of feels like this might be a big weight off of Luis Urias’ shoulders. He seemed to have bonded quickly with Arcia and spoke of how sad he was when he found out he’d been traded earlier this season. Urias came up through the minors with Fernando Tatis, and sort of took a complementary role to Tatis’ burgeoning stardom. I saw it reported that Urias met Adames during warmups with a big hug and the two were paired up throughout warmups. As silly as it might sound I am not really convinced Urias was totally comfortable in a position where he was the clear everyday shortstop. I think it’s at least possible he’ll be better in a lower pressure utility role.

 

Urias was actually looking like a step up from Arcia in one big way:

- He walks a lot more. 20 BB in 123 AB this year

- 58 walks to 495 ABs career

- This year, we're also seeing Urias show a power surge. In 123 ABs, he has a career-high 5 HR. He had 4 HR in 215 ABs in 2019.

 

Honestly, Shaw/Adames/Wong/Hiura with Urias/Vogelbach as the backups are not bad, if Hiura and Adames rebound.

 

And all we gotta do is get Yelich back to 20181/2019 form, where pitching to him was like kicking to Devin Hester... enjoyable for fans of one team, and a moment of dread for everyone else.