Brewers trade Feyereisen, Rasmussen to Rays for SS Willy Adames, RHP Trevor Richards

[KeithStone53151]

One detail that I heard on the radio broadcast yesterday is that we have not played the Cardinals since Adames joined the team. We last played them on May 13 and next play them on August 17. Going over 3 months without playing a division rival is just crazy.

 

Well he's going to see plenty of them over the next month and a half. I think I saw we have 13 games against them the next month and a half. Honestly that's kinda stupid to be so bunched together like that. It'll be something like 30% of our remaining games once Monday rolls around.

[sveumrules]

September bump-date...

 

Brewers are an MLB best 60-29 since the trade. Rays have the 2nd best record over that stretch at 57-29, so the trade hasn't not worked out for them. LAD (57-31) & SFG (56-29) have also been in the mix.

 

Offense has scored the 3rd most runs in MLB since the trade with the position players notching a 109 wRC+ (7th) and 16.3 WAR (2nd).

[Underachiever]

September bump-date...

 

Brewers are an MLB best 60-29 since the trade. Rays have the 2nd best record over that stretch at 57-29, so the trade hasn't not worked out for them. LAD (57-31) & SFG (56-29) have also been in the mix.

 

Offense has scored the 3rd most runs in MLB since the trade with the position players notching a 109 wRC+ (7th) and 16.3 WAR (2nd).

Question: Does WAR take place in a vacuum, or is it related to the actual record of the team? Would an entire team's WAR equal the games over/under .500 that their record would indicate? Next question: what is the pitching WAR since the trade? That would probably answer my first question.

[sveumrules]

September bump-date...

 

Brewers are an MLB best 60-29 since the trade. Rays have the 2nd best record over that stretch at 57-29, so the trade hasn't not worked out for them. LAD (57-31) & SFG (56-29) have also been in the mix.

 

Offense has scored the 3rd most runs in MLB since the trade with the position players notching a 109 wRC+ (7th) and 16.3 WAR (2nd).

 

Question: Does WAR take place in a vacuum, or is it related to the actual record of the team? Would an entire team's WAR equal the games over/under .500 that their record would indicate? Next question: what is the pitching WAR since the trade? That would probably answer my first question.

 

WAR is context neutral, so while there is some correlation to teams wins it is not a straight one to one relationship.

 

I believe replacement level is set at 46 wins, so a replacement team would have around 38/39 wins at this point in the season + 19 WAR from position players + 24 WAR from pitchers = 81/82 wins.

 

Starters have been relatively steady all year, but the bullpen really took off after the deal...

 

Starters thru 5/21: 228 IP | 3.27 ERA | 3.42 FIP | 5.9 rWAR (6th)

Starters post 5/22: 470 IP | 3.10 ERA | 3.16 FIP | 12.7 rWAR (2nd)

 

Relievers thru 5/21: 164 IP | 4.59 ERA | 4.83 FIP | 0.3 rWAR (19th)

Relievers post 5/22: 317 IP | 3.12 ERA | 3.76 FIP | 5.3 rWAR (3rd)

[PeaveyFury]

Both teams traded from a position of surplus to yield positive results for each side. Not shocking when you're discussing two of the best front offices in the game, factoring in budget/market factors.

[SRB]

The Rays definitely lost the trade though. They sold extremely low on Adames to open a spot for Franco. Can't see how they didn't lose it unless they convert Rasmussen into a SP in the next couple seasons.

[PeaveyFury]

The Rays definitely lost the trade though. They sold extremely low on Adames to open a spot for Franco. Can't see how they didn't lose it unless they convert Rasmussen into a SP in the next couple seasons.

 

Reports are they plan to do so starting shortly, just FTR.

[Thurston Fluff]

This is an interesting take on the trade from the other side.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/yes-adames-looks-milwaukee-mvp-153000025.html

[sveumrules]

The Rays definitely lost the trade though. They sold extremely low on Adames to open a spot for Franco. Can't see how they didn't lose it unless they convert Rasmussen into a SP in the next couple seasons.

 

Reports are they plan to do so starting shortly, just FTR.

 

Rasmussen has started his last three appearances going 13 IP | 2 ER | 8 K | 4 BB.

 

On the season with TB he is at 35 IP | 3.09 ERA | 2.96 FIP | 33 K | 11 BB.

[jerichoholicninja]

Maybe just a coincidence but Adames turned our offense from total crap to very good. Unless Rasmussen turns into Max Scherzer the trade is a push at worst for us.

[umphrey]

The Rays definitely lost the trade though. They sold extremely low on Adames to open a spot for Franco. Can't see how they didn't lose it unless they convert Rasmussen into a SP in the next couple seasons.

I don't think they did, the only thing they really did poorly that you could nitpick is they could have gotten better value in the off-season. But even there they might have wanted to manipulate service time.

[Underachiever]

September bump-date...

 

Brewers are an MLB best 60-29 since the trade. Rays have the 2nd best record over that stretch at 57-29, so the trade hasn't not worked out for them. LAD (57-31) & SFG (56-29) have also been in the mix.

 

Offense has scored the 3rd most runs in MLB since the trade with the position players notching a 109 wRC+ (7th) and 16.3 WAR (2nd).

 

Question: Does WAR take place in a vacuum, or is it related to the actual record of the team? Would an entire team's WAR equal the games over/under .500 that their record would indicate? Next question: what is the pitching WAR since the trade? That would probably answer my first question.

 

WAR is context neutral, so while there is some correlation to teams wins it is not a straight one to one relationship.

 

I believe replacement level is set at 46 wins, so a replacement team would have around 38/39 wins at this point in the season + 19 WAR from position players + 24 WAR from pitchers = 81/82 wins.

 

Starters have been relatively steady all year, but the bullpen really took off after the deal...

 

Starters thru 5/21: 228 IP | 3.27 ERA | 3.42 FIP | 5.9 rWAR (6th)

Starters post 5/22: 470 IP | 3.10 ERA | 3.16 FIP | 12.7 rWAR (2nd)

 

Relievers thru 5/21: 164 IP | 4.59 ERA | 4.83 FIP | 0.3 rWAR (19th)

Relievers post 5/22: 317 IP | 3.12 ERA | 3.76 FIP | 5.3 rWAR (3rd)

So, purposely ignoring everything you said to create a hot take, Brewers have had 18 WAR from pitchers, 16 WAR from position players, which equals 34, yet are only 31 over since the trade? Conclusion: They lost the trade. Lock the thread.

[SoCalBrewfan]

The Rays did pretty well in the Willy Adames trade I think.

 

Sure, David Price was a star, but given his contract and years of control, the Rays did pretty good to get a yet-to-debut Adames plus the not insignificant contributions of Drew Smyly....Price ended up making only 32 starts in Detroit, during which time they won the central, got swept in the 2014 ALDS, and then plummeted to 5th place in 2015. In fairness they in turn dealt Price at the 2015 deadline, picking up Matthew Boyd and even Daniel Norris, who would have some ups and downs in Motown and eventually become Reese Olson.

 

Oh wait, you mean the 2021 Willy Adames trade? Surely nobody is making definitive pronouncements on that trade already? I guess I did read on some message board that the Brewers were idiots for trading for Adames, who was hitting under .200 at the time. /s

 

If you go by pre-2021 values, nobody in their right mind would believe the Brewers could get Adames for JPF and Rasmussen. I think the Rays overreacted to the early season performances of both Adames and JPF, but it's important to remember that trades are for contracts, not players, and JPF and Rasmussen have years of cheap control whereas Adames starts Arby this offseason and will get increasingly expensive.

[AKCheesehead]

The Rays did pretty well in the Willy Adames trade I think.

 

Sure, David Price was a star, but given his contract and years of control, the Rays did pretty good to get a yet-to-debut Adames plus the not insignificant contributions of Drew Smyly....Price ended up making only 32 starts in Detroit, during which time they won the central, got swept in the 2014 ALDS, and then plummeted to 5th place in 2015. In fairness they in turn dealt Price at the 2015 deadline, picking up Matthew Boyd and even Daniel Norris, who would have some ups and downs in Motown and eventually become Reese Olson.

 

Oh wait, you mean the 2021 Willy Adames trade? Surely nobody is making definitive pronouncements on that trade already? I guess I did read on some message board that the Brewers were idiots for trading for Adames, who was hitting under .200 at the time. /s

 

If you go by pre-2021 values, nobody in their right mind would believe the Brewers could get Adames for JPF and Rasmussen. I think the Rays overreacted to the early season performances of both Adames and JPF, but it's important to remember that trades are for contracts, not players, and JPF and Rasmussen have years of cheap control whereas Adames starts Arby this offseason and will get increasingly expensive.

 

A bit, maybe, but from the Rays end I think it's as much about clearing way for Franco and getting good players for Adames. I think they did a pretty good job of that, and I also think they were fairly well aware that Adames was going to significantly more successful with Milwaukee. Both teams did well in this trade.

[MrTPlush]

Sometimes when people claim a team "sold low" I think they are disregarding the reality that if that player stayed the likely outcome was them never improving. It isn't selling low if there was pretty much no chance of them ever rebounding or becoming what they did post trade at their original club. Adames blamed the Rays ballpark for a lot of his struggles and then blossomed. Not like the Rays are getting a new ballpark next year to regain value.

 

It is like Segura. Never lost sleep over his success after leaving because it was clear he was not figuring it out here. If Arcia would have become something, oh well, we tried for years. Sometimes a change of scenery is the only way to really get a player going.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Well, Adames was going to be in Arby in the 21-22 offseason, and the Rays have a deeper stable of middle infield prospects than I can fathom, so he was probably moving sooner or later anyway. As I said, you trade contracts, not players. The Rays are ruthless in moving on when they don't like the cost to production ratio, and at most the slow start moved things forward a few months. They obviously have liked Rasmussen for a while, so maybe they're happy with the outcome from their end. I think most people at this moment feel like the Brewers did very well, but there's a lot of cheap years between JP and Rasmussen that might end up saying otherwise.

[wntrtxn21]

Well, Adames was going to be in Arby in the 21-22 offseason, and the Rays have a deeper stable of middle infield prospects than I can fathom, so he was probably moving sooner or later anyway. As I said, you trade contracts, not players. The Rays are ruthless in moving on when they don't like the cost to production ratio, and at most the slow start moved things forward a few months. They obviously have liked Rasmussen for a while, so maybe they're happy with the outcome from their end. I think most people at this moment feel like the Brewers did very well, but there's a lot of cheap years between JP and Rasmussen that might end up saying otherwise.

 

Sometimes you trade players regardless of their contracts. We saw a lot of that at the trade deadline. Trading contracts implies just moving money and forgetting how much the player could help your team. Cost of the player compared to added wins for the team. How much more are the Brewers making because of Adames? Would they be getting post season money w/o him? Moving Rasmussen and JP made room for the Brewers' own cheap bull pen guys and Ashby looks to be a cheap starter soon. Very well could be a net gain for the Brewers. Looking at just the contracts only tells half of the story.

[SRB]

The Rays truly have an amazing PR team pumping our stories about how brilliant their front office is if there are fans on a Brewers forum suggesting they did not lose that trade by sending out 2021 MVP-candidate Willy Adames for two relief pitchers

[nate82]

The Rays truly have an amazing PR team pumping our stories about how brilliant their front office is if there are fans on a Brewers forum suggesting they did not lose that trade by sending out 2021 MVP-candidate Willy Adames for two relief pitchers

 

It is too early to say who won and lost this trade. I think it is a push and both teams have come out ahead in this trade. Just because the trade is looking good now for the Brewers doesn't mean it can't get ugly in another year or two.

 

I really hate the categorizing trades as wins and losses. I don't believe GM's are trying to get one over on another GM unless they really dislike that GM. I think most trades that GM's make are ones where they see an acquisition that helps their team so both GM's have to agree on something that they think will help their team win either now or in the future. Not all trades are going to work out especially ones that involve prospects. I always cringe whenever I see someone say oh x won't trade with y because the last time they traded with them they got fleeced or the trade didn't work out. I doubt any GM is going to look at a past deal and say ahhhh hah they got me last time but this time I am not going to trade with them because of that!

[markedman5]

For those with access to,the Athletic

 

Andy Haines and Cruz apparently deserve some credit for Adames turn around

 

https://theathletic.com/2805662/2021/09/02/brewers-fix-a-few-bad-habits-in-willy-adames-swing-and-now-hes-back-at-peak-form-i-felt-more-powerful/

[DuWayne Steurer]

Fire Haines!

[BillMilton]

Sometimes when people claim a team "sold low" I think they are disregarding the reality that if that player stayed the likely outcome was them never improving. It isn't selling low if there was pretty much no chance of them ever rebounding or becoming what they did post trade at their original club. Adames blamed the Rays ballpark for a lot of his struggles and then blossomed. Not like the Rays are getting a new ballpark next year to regain value.

 

It is like Segura. Never lost sleep over his success after leaving because it was clear he was not figuring it out here. If Arcia would have become something, oh well, we tried for years. Sometimes a change of scenery is the only way to really get a player going.

 

You could say the same about Dubon. Even Brad Miller.

[Lathund]

A year ago today.

With the impact Willy Adames himself had, the effect on Luis Urias, and the subsequent trade of Richards for Tellez, this is looking like a fantastic trade so far. It's also one of the rare win-win trades; Willy would never have done this well in TB, and Rasmussen wouldn't have had the opportunity to start regularly here either. Both teams traded from a position of strength and got what they needed. 

EDIT: Also, as always, some hilariously bad hot takes (Regarding both this trade, and the Grisham/Urias trade) in the early pages. 

[homer]

Oof

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

44 minutes ago, homer said:

Oof

I'm not bashing Rosenthal - I think he's great - but that tweet aged like fine wine.

Or the opposite of that. I get confused sometimes.