Brewers trade Feyereisen, Rasmussen to Rays for SS Willy Adames, RHP Trevor Richards

[Simba2020]

Unless Adames has two more months like he just had, I figure something along the lines of 3/$25 million in arbitration and then maybe a FA contract of maybe $18 million per year. Say he's looking at 4/$42, 5/$60 million through that period. For any deal to make sense for the Brewers, I'm thinking 4/$34, 5/$45 might make some sense.

[brewcrewdue80]

[quote name="adambr2"

The "savings" is in the team options. Team options like the ones Peralta has have tremendous value to the team. Adames isn't taking less than his arbitration projections AND giving the team two player options. That would make no sense for him.

 

The longer you can get the team options for' date=' the better. Two is going to cost more upfront than one. If we can get three, even better. Team options are about the best value a team can get. They can get all of the potential reward without assuming major risk.[/quote]

 

What savings in your proposal? You essentially give Adames more guaranteed money for the entire contract and he has no incentive to play hard the next 3 years.

 

Reason Willy signs my less projected contract is because he sees more money right away that he can invest however he wants to make more money out of it than he could just going year-year and having to produce and work hard to keep pace on that projection.

Take real estate. He can buy himself and parents a great home. Or he can tell a real estate that he's "projected" to make this money so give him the house loans and believe the imaginary income will exist even after death or unrecoverable injury. That insurance is how the team saves money on a projection both in arb projection and the future FA projection. The team has Yelich's contract and the Arb raises or contract extensions of Woodruff and Burnes to factor in on payroll. Paying Adames more these next 3years than likely they would is going to end up a reason you don't extend Burnes or trade one of the 2 away. The extension should lessen Adames' 2nd and 3rd year arb projection to accommodate Burnes and Woodruff's salaries by getting Adames more money up front.

[adambr2]

The "savings" is in the team options. Team options like the ones Peralta has have tremendous value to the team. Adames isn't taking less than his arbitration projections AND giving the team two player options. That would make no sense for him.

 

The longer you can get the team options for, the better. Two is going to cost more upfront than one. If we can get three, even better. Team options are about the best value a team can get. They can get all of the potential reward without assuming major risk.

 

What savings in your proposal? You essentially give Adames more guaranteed money for the entire contract and he has no incentive to play hard the next 3 years.

 

Reason Willy signs my less projected contract is because he sees more money right away that he can invest however he wants to make more money out of it than he could just going year-year and having to produce and work hard to keep pace on that projection.

Take real estate. He can buy himself and parents a great home. Or he can tell a real estate that he's "projected" to make this money so give him the house loans and believe the imaginary income will exist even after death or unrecoverable injury. That insurance is how the team saves money on a projection both in arb projection and the future FA projection. The team has Yelich's contract and the Arb raises or contract extensions of Woodruff and Burnes to factor in on payroll. Paying Adames more these next 3years than likely they would is going to end up a reason you don't extend Burnes or trade one of the 2 away. The extension should lessen Adames' 2nd and 3rd year arb projection to accommodate Burnes and Woodruff's salaries by getting Adames more money up front.

 

Huh? No incentive to play hard the next 3 years? Maybe to earn those 17.5M options and then hit free agency at age 31?

 

Does Freddy Peralta have no reason to play hard right now?

 

I don't have a problem with your deal either. A straight 5 year deal for $60M buying out 2 free agency years with no options is fine, too, if you believe in him. But if you're getting team options, you definitely have to pay a little more.

[Outlander]

I have no reason to believe Adames would tank after getting a contract but as stated previously Peralta is different. If he has horrible years in say year 5 and 6 the Brewers can decline the option so Peralta has plenty of incentive.

 

I do think there is reason to sign Adames without a discount to buy out a couple of free agent years. When guys hit free agency they often times sign long contracts where the deal is bad at the end. If the Brewers could get two free agent years at market without overpaying for 2-3 declining years that is a win.

[adambr2]

I have no reason to believe Adames would tank after getting a contract but as stated previously Peralta is different. If he has horrible years in say year 5 and 6 the Brewers can decline the option so Peralta has plenty of incentive.

 

But that template was my entire suggestion for Adames. Buy out arbitration, tack on team options.

[AdvantageSchneider]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/willy-adames-can-see-clearly-now/

 

Nothing to add to the article. Might have to pick up an adames shirsie this weekend.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

That's a fun read. The only issue I have is the author does not talk much about his drastic BABIP splits between TB and MKe this year. Nearly 100 points difference this year. A 361 BABIP with the Brewers does not seem sustainable and probably involves some luck meaning he will regress. However, his BABIP from 2018-2020 is 348, so maybe it is not too far off from his career. Is it reasonable for a player to have a career BABIP 50 points above league average? His career average exit velocity and Hart hit % are right around league average (88.6 and 38.7%).

 

I keep waiting for him to come down to earth but I am starting to think he has turned the corner. He was a top 100 prospect so expecting a 800+ OPS from him is not unreasonable. If he can continue to lower is K% and increase is BB% (both career bests with the Brewers), his production will only continue to improve.

 

Maybe I should have posted this in the optimism thread.

[sveumrules]

Is it reasonable for a player to have a career BABIP 50 points above league average?

 

There are a number of factors that go into it, but certain players are able to maintain higher BABIPs over the course of their careers. I'm not sure when BABIP starts to stabilize, kinda feels like it never really does, but Willy's got 1,527 PAs now since 2018 with the 11th highest BABIP in MLB.

 

Thought his batted ball profile was kind of interesting...

 

w/ TBR: 99 Pull+ | 100 Cent+ | 101 Oppo+

w/ MIL: 108 Pull+ | 85 Cent+ | 109 Oppo+

 

w/ TBR: 101 LD+ | 108 GB+ | 89 FB+

w/ MIL: 113 LD+ | 79 GB+ | 105 FB+

 

Keep in mind we're talking about 1254 PAs with TBR vs only 273 PAs with MIL so far, but it looks like being able to actually see the ball has helped Willy to get it off the ground with much more frequency.

[brewcrewdue80]

ClosetBF-

 

If we hop on over to Statcast, there are some stats you can see what MLB avg is and where Willy stacks up to them.

One of the first in line is Barrels. This season his stat there is a whopping 12.7%. ML average is 6.6% Now last year Adames shows at 9.9%. And now for his career the average is 9.4% So his contact is harder hit more often. Then you can go on to EV and Launch Angle.

Exit Velocity ML average is 88.3. Adames is having his highest for his career at 89.7. The higher the EV the more likely a ground ball finds the hole, but in Adames' case his Launch Angle is at a career high 17.3 and he has a career average of 12.3. ML average is 12 degrees.

Yelich meanwhile has a career average of 4.8. His last great year in 2019 before injury he had reached 11.3. Had an EV of 93.3.

This year Yelich has reverted to a low of 4.1 Launch Angle.

 

I'd say for Adames keeping the Barrels high and his Launch Angle around a premium angle is why he has a higher BABIP. I will say, 17.3 is minor bit too high as approaching 20+ means balls are getting caught vs falling down. I think the 13-16 launch angle is prime(Tatis Jr at 13 this year) and seeing Adames near the premium LA for his career is why his BABIP is higher than expected to go along with the Barrels. The fact that he has a career arc in Exit Velocity increasing should actually give us an expectation that the BABIP will not only sustain but could improve so long as his LA doesn't continue higher than where he's at now.

[Lathund]

Is it reasonable for a player to have a career BABIP 50 points above league average?

 

Yes, but needs to have shown it over a season or two at least to tell it's for real. Like how Hiura's .402 BABIP in 2019 was never going to be real. Yelich is a career .353, Ichiro .338 (And higher than that in his early years) etc. Hitting the ball hard (Hard hit %, average EV, barrel % etc), not shiftable (i.e oppo/up the middle hitter), low flyball %, good runner, hustle, all things that factor into it. 1500 PA is enough to suggest that he is someone who will run a higher BABIP than league average, but perhaps it could still be somewhat lower (or higher..) than it is.

[KeithStone53151]

Is it reasonable for a player to have a career BABIP 50 points above league average?

 

There are a number of factors that go into it, but certain players are able to maintain higher BABIPs over the course of their careers. I'm not sure when BABIP starts to stabilize, kinda feels like it never really does, but Willy's got 1,527 PAs now since 2018 with the 11th highest BABIP in MLB.

 

Thought his batted ball profile was kind of interesting...

 

w/ TBR: 99 Pull+ | 100 Cent+ | 101 Oppo+

w/ MIL: 108 Pull+ | 85 Cent+ | 109 Oppo+

 

w/ TBR: 101 LD+ | 108 GB+ | 89 FB+

w/ MIL: 113 LD+ | 79 GB+ | 105 FB+

 

Keep in mind we're talking about 1254 PAs with TBR vs only 273 PAs with MIL so far, but it looks like being able to actually see the ball has helped Willy to get it off the ground with much more frequency.

 

I thought looking at the rates that the 25% or so increase in chase rate at the trop was only part of the story. I would bet his swings at home were far less confident than on the road or with the Brewers...which would logically lead to less hard contact and more ground balls. This trade at the moment is on a short list of best trades Stearns has ever made.

[KeithStone53151]

Can you imagine if instead of us trading for Adames, if the Reds had made that trade either in the offseason or before we did? Kyle Farmer has been on a bit of a roll lately but for most of the season SS has been a black hole for that team. They had reportedly had interest in the offseason and during the season but never got it done.

[Jopal78]

Doesn't Stearns get some serious consideration for Executive of the Year in 2021?

 

Look at this trade, he initially acquired Feyereisen from the Yankees for a 16 year old kid, and cash. They originally selected Drew Rasmussen in the 6th round of 2018. Coming back from TJ surgery but was collegiate former first round pick in 2017 (with a 1.8 million dollar slot). Those two players are flipped for Adames who has been the catalyst of the team this year.

 

Not to mention flipping the other pitcher they received, Trevor Richards along with Bowden Francis, for Rowdy Tellez.

 

It's almost unheard of for a team to acquire two productive major league regulars with future team control, in-season while retaining all of the team's blue chip prospects (although I will say Rasmussen probably should have been higher on their prospects lists).

[PeaveyFury]

Doesn't Stearns get some serious consideration for Executive of the Year in 2021?

 

Absolutely, yes. He's playing chess while teams like the Pirates perpetually play checkers.

 

In addition to the moves noted, it's also noteworthy that two of his much-maligned 2019-20 offseason acquisitions, Garcia and Narvaez, have performed well as key contributors this year, showing that the weirdness of the 2020 season had more of and impact on the 2020 results than perhaps already assumed.

[KeithStone53151]

Doesn't Stearns get some serious consideration for Executive of the Year in 2021?

 

Absolutely, yes. He's playing chess while teams like the Pirates perpetually play checkers.

 

In addition to the moves noted, it's also noteworthy that two of his much-maligned 2019-20 offseason acquisitions, Garcia and Narvaez, have performed well as key contributors this year, showing that the weirdness of the 2020 season had more of and impact on the 2020 results than perhaps already assumed.

 

I see your point and generally agree, but the Pirates aren't even playing checkers. They are playing "try to lose on purpose". Teams like the Yankees are playing checkers. Need 1b, trade for 1b. Need LH hitting, trade for LH hitting. Stearns finds value/flexibility and makes it work.

[markedman5]

it's always fun to look at the immediate reaction to trades to see how right or in this case...wrong.....most of the takes were.

[PeaveyFury]

Doesn't Stearns get some serious consideration for Executive of the Year in 2021?

 

Absolutely, yes. He's playing chess while teams like the Pirates perpetually play checkers.

 

In addition to the moves noted, it's also noteworthy that two of his much-maligned 2019-20 offseason acquisitions, Garcia and Narvaez, have performed well as key contributors this year, showing that the weirdness of the 2020 season had more of and impact on the 2020 results than perhaps already assumed.

 

I see your point and generally agree, but the Pirates aren't even playing checkers. They are playing "try to lose on purpose". Teams like the Yankees are playing checkers. Need 1b, trade for 1b. Need LH hitting, trade for LH hitting. Stearns finds value/flexibility and makes it work.

 

That is a very fair distinction.

[BrewCrewForever]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/willy-adames-can-see-clearly-now/

 

Nothing to add to the article. Might have to pick up an adames shirsie this weekend.

 

Sadly, I tried to pickup an Adames shirsey at the team store a few weeks ago and they do not sell them

[monty57]

it's always fun to look at the immediate reaction to trades to see how right or in this case...wrong.....most of the takes were.

 

Yes, and we can be confident that whenever the next move is made there will be posters who will hate it and after spending a couple of minutes looking at a stat sheet will question Stearns' sanity for making the move.

 

I guess that's part of the fun of posting on a fan site.

[tmwiese55]

MVP discussion going on MLB network today. They're going big into the Adames debate in that he wasn't on the team or in the NL the first two months. Essentially, can or should someone traded mid season, especially to the opposite league, win the awards? The Sabathia situation seems relevant to MKE fans too. Seems like a good discussion, curious what people think even though we're obviously bias?

 

For me, first it always seemed odd to me how they reset a players stats when they switch leagues. So, I don't agree with how it hurts their counting stats and anyone who says they're ineligible since they're not tops in any categories (as some might be if you counted both leagues). I think my conclusion would probably be that if you only came over at the deadline it would be pretty tough for me to justify the awards for two months. In the Adames case though, he came over two months prior so I don't think he should be an automatic rule out. Considering the specific impact he's had and his stats in what will end up being 2/3s of the year in this league (and having played the other third in the other) I'd think he should be considered. If Tatis didn't get hurt it would be over, but there's no clear cut run away winner so an odd one like Adames is possible in a year like this. Normally, it would be pretty tough or difficult though.

[SomewhereInTime]

Personally, I think a player needs to be a qualifier to be eligible for league awards.

[Underachiever]

Sutcliffe won the Cy Young in 84 after being traded from Cleveland. He went 16-2 with the Cubs.

[IIAY]

Personally, I think a player needs to be a qualifier to be eligible for league awards.

It will be close. He has averaged 4.2 PA in the 69 games he has played so far for the Brewers. With 48 games left, it looks like he will be about 10 NL PA short of the 501 needed to be a qualifier. His 3.4 fWAR is second in all of baseball since May 22 (Cedric Mullins is at 3.5). Next in the NL is Tatis Jr. at 3.1 (and he is still out with the shoulder injury).

[sveumrules]

Brewers are an MLB best 49-23 since the Adames trade. SF (46-24) & TB (43-26, guess the trade is working for them too) are next before a group of four teams (LA, CIN, CHW & HOU) with 42 wins.

 

The offense has now scored thee most runs in MLB since the trade with the position players posting a 110 wRC+ & the 3rd highest WAR.

 

Bullpen has also posted a 3.18 ERA (4th) / 3.88 FIP (7th) / 3.87 xFIP (3rd) since the trade vs a 4.59 ERA (23rd) / 4.86 FIP (27th) / 4.41 xFIP (20th) before the trade.

[IIAY]

One detail that I heard on the radio broadcast yesterday is that we have not played the Cardinals since Adames joined the team. We last played them on May 13 and next play them on August 17. Going over 3 months without playing a division rival is just crazy.