Brewers trade Feyereisen, Rasmussen to Rays for SS Willy Adames, RHP Trevor Richards

[adambr2]

No one is suggesting that Adames is going to be cheap. The question is simply how expensive.

 

Additionally, although I have brought up the Tropicana vision issue with Adames numerous times as something that definitely holds merit and gives us reason to think his performance here is sustainable, it doesn't mean that his Tropicana numbers are simply going to be disregarded by an arbitration panel. They'll be taken into account.

[Simba2020]

I would estimate Adames to get somewhere between $3.5 and $4.0 million the first year (probably closer to $4), roughly double that year 2 and then another near doubling in the third year. Trea Turner isn't a bad comparable and he got just over $24 million in his first 3 years although he was a Super 2 I believe.

 

Of course if Adames keeps this going for the rest of the year, he'd be pushing a 5 WAR season and he could push that first year to the $4.5 to $5.0 million range.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Javier Baez and Trevor Story got approximately 25+~30 million in their three years of arbitration. Lindor got even more.

 

Depends where you see Adames; a lesser player than Baez or Story? If so maybe he gets less than 30 mil in arbitration, on their level or better he’ll get even more

 

I don't see Adames as an assumed annual all star caliber SS occasionally in the MVP discussion. That's what those three players are. Adames has had that type of stretch since coming to the Brewers in 50ish games, but his career numbers say he isn't going to be a SS that will set the arbitration marker as he progresses through it.

Adames career numbers outside of Tropicana Park (at least from 2018-2020 seasons) gives him a 135 wRC+. His numbers since coming to the Brewers are a wRC+ of 162. It was hypothesized the he didn't see well in Tropicana and there was just an article on mlb.com to that effect to account for his performance with the Brewers looking more like his away numbers from Tampa. While the 162 may not be sustainable, a wRC+ of 135 puts him in the top 20 hitters in baseball (The only SS with a higher wRC+ this year has been Tatis at 167). If Willy keeps it up through the rest of the year, there's pretty good evidence that he WILL be expensive in arbitration.

 

We can't have it both ways. If you want good players you will need to pay for them when they hit arbitration. If you want cheap players you'll likely get crappy players.

 

If Adams is that hitter consistently for the next 3 years, I'd gladly pay him tons of well-earned money in arbitration....I don't think his crazy start with the Brewers (almost 0.600 slugging and 1.0 OPS) offensively is sustainable, and his first 3+ years with the Rays will play a role in all 3 of his arbitration years assuming no extension materializes.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Let's not get too excited yet. Let's see how this season plays out before we extend him. I'm glad we have Adames but his latest hot streak is unsustainable. At the end of June, he had an OPS of 756. Very respectable for a SS especially due to his slow start with Tampa. In 18 days in July he raised his season OPS to 832, driven partly by a 531 BAbip. He will cool off some. His highest OPS for a season, Majors or Minors, was last year with an 813 OPS. In the minors, his best OPS was an 802.

[monty57]

If Adams is that hitter consistently for the next 3 years, I'd gladly pay him tons of well-earned money in arbitration....I don't think his crazy start with the Brewers (almost 0.600 slugging and 1.0 OPS) offensively is sustainable, and his first 3+ years with the Rays will play a role in all 3 of his arbitration years assuming no extension materializes.

 

Right. If he goes year-to-year through arby, there will be more data as the years pass and he will get paid accordingly. If the Brewers were to offer an extension now, they would have to go based on his expectation for the next 3-5 years, and his past history would definitely come into play. Then I'm sure they have a formula for the discount they'd expect for taking on all the risk by guaranteeing a huge sum of money, and they'd have their offer.

 

I very much hope that he continues to be a 1.000+ OPS guy, and if he does then he will end up making tons of money. At this point in his career, he's been a little less valuable (based on WAR) than the guys I mentioned earlier (Turner, Baez, Story), so it would seem that he would get a little less money than them. Well have to see how "baseball inflation" goes, as the past couple offseasons can't really be considered normal. I tried to find guys who were still in arby, so the numbers shouldn't be too far off from where they will be for Adames.

[JohnBriggs12]

Adames has been the second best SS in the NL this season behind only Tatis. Buying out his arby years and at least one year of FA has to be explored. Baez is going to find teams aren't passing out $200 million plus to guys with OBPs in the .280's. He'll probably end up taking the QO and hope he can rebuild his value.

[tigerbrew]

Willy Adames is the NL Player of the Week

 

[homer]

Adames has been the second best SS in the NL this season behind only Tatis. Buying out his arby years and at least one year of FA has to be explored. Baez is going to find teams aren't passing out $200 million plus to guys with OBPs in the .280's. He'll probably end up taking the QO and hope he can rebuild his value.

 

Baez is the cautionary tale here. What if the Cubs had extended him after 2018? He was 25, coming off an 881 OPS season, and had three arby years remaining. Sounds familiar.

[adambr2]

 

You don't pay free agent market rates when guys are years away from free agency. Not how it works. If it did, the Yelich extension would have been even more expensive on a per year basis than what it was.

 

Of course you can take potential deals and compare them to actual deals. That's how the markets are set in the first place. Adames has no long-term security at this point. Some guys value that security and are willing to take a little bit less to lock that in now and insure themselves against a major injury or bust. Some guys would rather wait for free agency and shoot for the moon. Every individual is different. It doesn't hurt to inquire with Adames and his agent.

 

The fact that you think Adames has already proven too much to get him for a discount in the 5 to 6 year area and another guy thinks he hasn't shown enough to do that should be proof enough that the truth is somewhere in the middle.

 

Sure, you don't want to pay market rates for a player years away from free agency, but by the same token when Adames is 6 months away from arbitration where his pay will grow exponentially he has no real reason to sign an extension with the Brewers.

 

He, his agent and the Brewers F.O. know if he plays well he'll likely make 25-30 million dollars over the next three years. What are the Brewers going to do; offer him 3yrs/45 and ask for a club option for a 4th year? That type of deal doesn't make any sense for Milwaukee, and offering anything less doesn't really make any sense for Adames (unless he doesn't believe he can continue to perform at this level, or is afraid of a catastrophic injury ruining his career).

 

It all depends on what Adames is really prioritizing. If his main priority is to get to free agency and break the bank, yes, there is nothing we can do, and we may as well go year to year with him.

 

However, keep in mind that Adames has never made more than close to league minimum his entire career. He's basically playing on one year contracts the next 3 years if he wants to go the arbitration route, and there is risk in that. A lot can happen or change over 3 years. He hasn't obtained life changing money, yet. We can help him with that security if he's willing to give a little. Maybe he'd like to lock in life changing money for security now, and still have a chance to break the bank later? That can be done, too. So if he's open to it, it's all about finding that middle ground that might work for both teams.

 

So suppose Adames is projected for about 3/30 in arbitration the next 3 years. So from a team perspective, what do we want to get out of this? Extra control. If we can just buy out 2 years of his free agency, we've got him for 5 years instead of 3 which has tremendous value. So from Adames' perspective, if he is going to do something where he's allowing the team to buy out free agency years, the team needs to give something. So perhaps rather than start at 3/30 for those 3 years, we may need to go 3/35. That's fair.

 

So at that point, what are two potential team option dollar amounts that could make sense for the team, but decently compensate Adames? Obviously this is where the guessing game comes in, but I would throw out a $15M team option for 2025 and a $20M team option for 2026 as a possibility, both with a buyout of $2.5M.

 

Why does that make sense for the team? They gain valuable control over Adames, and in the worst case scenario, if he tanks, you're only on the hook for 3/40. This hurts, but it isn't going to cripple the franchise. Does it make sense for Adames? Maybe. As I mentioned, he's never made more than league minimum and he just guaranteed himself $40M of life changing money even if he gets hurt tomorrow. If he "only" ends up with the $40M, it doesn't really hurt him because he would have reached free agency at the same point anyway. Otherwise, he ends up with as much as $70M over 5 years. And if he's still playing at this level, he's going to hit free agency at 31 and he's still going to get a huge multi-year contract then.

 

Obviously I'm just splitballing here, but I do believe there is middle ground that makes sense for both sides if the ideas of both the team and Adames are aligned.

[monty57]

Adames has been the second best SS in the NL this season behind only Tatis. Buying out his arby years and at least one year of FA has to be explored. Baez is going to find teams aren't passing out $200 million plus to guys with OBPs in the .280's. He'll probably end up taking the QO and hope he can rebuild his value.

 

Baez is the cautionary tale here. What if the Cubs had extended him after 2018? He was 25, coming off an 881 OPS season, and had three arby years remaining. Sounds familiar.

 

Yes, during Baez's pre-arby years, he accumulated 2.2, 2.4 & 5.4 WAR, helped win a World Series and was coming off a year in which he ran 2nd to Yelich for league MVP. Cub fans were probably more excited about Baez's future at that point than Brewer fans are about Adames right now. Since then, he posted 4.4, 0.0 and is now sitting at 1.9 WAR for this season. He has taken a significant step back, but still feels he should be paid as if he was still playing like he was a few years ago.

 

Adames is on a similar track to Baez's early career in that he's having a great season in his final pre-arby year. While hindsight is 20/20, no one has a crystal ball. Will he continue on and be a perennial All-Star / MVP candidate, or will he regress? From the team's perspective, they can't offer a contract assuming that the outlier year is the "new normal," and that he will be a superstar every year going into the future when he's only had one "superstar year" so far.

 

As has been said, both sides would have to agree to do an extension. The Brewers would offer significantly less than he could get if he remains a star player and goes year-to-year since they're assuming the risk. Adames could feel that the guarantee is worth it, or he could be willing to take the risk in order to maximize his potential earnings.

 

If they agree to an extension, then the Brewers will pencil him in as a core player for the foreseeable future. If not, then they can't build around him, as they'll have him for a couple of seasons and then they'll trade him before he becomes a free agent. Or, he regresses and none of this matters, and the team and the fans would be glad they didn't extend him.

 

Another big question may come down to how much money the Brewers will have. If they can't afford to offer multiple extensions, they may have to choose between guys like Adames or Burnes for who gets the extension offer. Lots of big questions, so Stearns and Attanasio have some big decisions to make.

[Roderick]

Let's not get too excited yet. Let's see how this season plays out before we extend him. I'm glad we have Adames but his latest hot streak is unsustainable. At the end of June, he had an OPS of 756. Very respectable for a SS especially due to his slow start with Tampa. In 18 days in July he raised his season OPS to 832, driven partly by a 531 BAbip. He will cool off some. His highest OPS for a season, Majors or Minors, was last year with an 813 OPS. In the minors, his best OPS was an 802.

 

There was a story about how Mookie Betts referred Adames to his private hitting coach during the postseason. So there could be improvement that was made from refining his batting this offseason. I think he said he was still getting used to it at the start of this season. Could be a factor that his prior experience is not going to account for.

[IIAY]

Major kudos to David Stearns for pulling the trigger on this deal on May 21 and not waiting until the trade deadline. I think 4 factors helped contribute to the timing:

 

1) The 2 teams had previously been in discussions about Adames during the off-season, so a lot of the groundwork had probably been laid

2) Feyereisen got off to a great start this season and turned himself into a valuable commodity, while Rasmussen showed enough (along with his pedigree and the fact the Rays had previously drafted him in the first round). It allowed Stearns to trade assets from a position of strength that he didn't necessarily know he had during the off-season.

3) Urias developing the "yips" while throwing from SS. Maybe the preference all along was to acquire Adames and move Urias to 3B, but his throwing issues likely accelerated it.

4) Passing the Super 2 cutoff for the Rays to bring up the #1 prospect in baseball (who happens to play the same position as Adames).

 

In the end, we are still 10 days away from the trade deadline, but we have likely already made the most impactful trade that any team will make this year. Since the trade, Adames has arguably been the most valuable player in the NL (for sure top-3), the Brewers have the best record in baseball, Urias has blossomed and filled the hole at 3B better than I could have imagined, and Adames has brought energy and fun to the team that appeared to be absent early on.

[HP29]

Well Said!

[HP29]

Sorry, long time viewer of this forum, first post, i am not High Heat

[Lathund]

Sorry, long time viewer of this forum, first post, i am not High Heat

 

Sounds suspiciously like something HH19 would say!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Sorry, long time viewer of this forum, first post, i am not High Heat

 

Sounds suspiciously like something HH19 would say!

 

Aren't we all High Heat?

[HP29]

LOL

 

I want Escobar and a late inning reliever and Im good. We have traded away so many bullpen pieces..

[homer]

Sorry, long time viewer of this forum, first post, i am not High Heat

 

Sounds suspiciously like something HH19 would say!

 

Aren't we all High Heat?

 

je suis High Heat

[SeaBass]

Sorry, long time viewer of this forum, first post, i am not High Heat

 

Sounds suspiciously like something HH19 would say!

 

Aren't we all High Heat?

I'm Spartacus!

[nate82]

Sorry, long time viewer of this forum, first post, i am not High Heat

 

Sounds suspiciously like something HH19 would say!

 

Aren't we all High Heat?

 

Maybe?

 

[MrTPlush]

Sorry, long time viewer of this forum, first post, i am not High Heat

 

Sounds suspiciously like something HH19 would say!

 

I truly want a longtime lurker who remembers High Heat to name themselves ‘Low Heat19’ when they join and make a comment like HP29 did.

[bjkrautk]

The real High Heat was the friends we made along the way.

[brewcrewdue80]

]

 

It all depends on what Adames is really prioritizing. If his main priority is to get to free agency and break the bank, yes, there is nothing we can do, and we may as well go year to year with him.

 

However, keep in mind that Adames has never made more than close to league minimum his entire career. He's basically playing on one year contracts the next 3 years if he wants to go the arbitration route, and there is risk in that. A lot can happen or change over 3 years. He hasn't obtained life changing money, yet. We can help him with that security if he's willing to give a little. Maybe he'd like to lock in life changing money for security now, and still have a chance to break the bank later? That can be done, too. So if he's open to it, it's all about finding that middle ground that might work for both teams.

 

So suppose Adames is projected for about 3/30 in arbitration the next 3 years. So from a team perspective, what do we want to get out of this? Extra control. If we can just buy out 2 years of his free agency, we've got him for 5 years instead of 3 which has tremendous value. So from Adames' perspective, if he is going to do something where he's allowing the team to buy out free agency years, the team needs to give something. So perhaps rather than start at 3/30 for those 3 years, we may need to go 3/35. That's fair.

 

So at that point, what are two potential team option dollar amounts that could make sense for the team, but decently compensate Adames? Obviously this is where the guessing game comes in, but I would throw out a $15M team option for 2025 and a $20M team option for 2026 as a possibility, both with a buyout of $2.5M.

 

Why does that make sense for the team? They gain valuable control over Adames, and in the worst case scenario, if he tanks, you're only on the hook for 3/40. This hurts, but it isn't going to cripple the franchise. Does it make sense for Adames? Maybe. As I mentioned, he's never made more than league minimum and he just guaranteed himself $40M of life changing money even if he gets hurt tomorrow. If he "only" ends up with the $40M, it doesn't really hurt him because he would have reached free agency at the same point anyway. Otherwise, he ends up with as much as $70M over 5 years. And if he's still playing at this level, he's going to hit free agency at 31 and he's still going to get a huge multi-year contract then.

 

Obviously I'm just splitballing here, but I do believe there is middle ground that makes sense for both sides if the ideas of both the team and Adames are aligned.

 

I don't quite get suppose hes at 3/30 projection so we offer 3/35 with 2 club options 15&20 mil option. So you take a projection add 7.5mil to it followed to continual raises like a FA model? Wheres the savings here on Milw's side? I always thought an extension with option years spread the wealth earlier to save money near back-end. Youre giving Adames 7.5 mil more than projected and trusting he'll remain worth 17.5M avg the 2 FA seasons. Or in essence paying Adames 2/40. on the FA seasons? He's on a hott streak. White hot like the comparable JJ Hardy used to go through. Those followed with streaks like the one he started the season with for Tampa. I'm excited too and all about Adames, but just not on same page on the money here.

 

Done right the 3/30mil projection ought to look more like extending him at 3/27 rate but paying him 7.5, 9, 10.5 with option years where the buyout is 2.5mil. Then Adames has guaranteed projection of 3/30, a 29.5 guarantee. 1st year FA buyout I would go 14mil and 2yr I think 18.5 is fair. Toss in incentives to earn extra. Even now I look at this and feel I'm offering too much but all told in the 1st extension end Adames gets 5/59.5 to enter real FA with. He'll have made what? 1.7? Mil for his career with chance to earn 7.5 mil the next season vs a 3-4.5mil arb based projection? How much is he really leaving on the table? Remember he's not a Super 2. He's not, nor will he have won an MVP before going through yr 1 of 3 Arbs. Arb is a what have you done. FA is a what you may do value.

[monty57]

The Brewers essentially "control" him for three non-guaranteed, below market value, one-year deals. If they do not get a substantial discount for signing him to an extension, there is no reason for doing it. If they are going to pay market rate for him, then eliminate the risk by going year-to-year in arby and then re-signing him (or a similar player) as a free agent in three years.

[adambr2]

]

 

It all depends on what Adames is really prioritizing. If his main priority is to get to free agency and break the bank, yes, there is nothing we can do, and we may as well go year to year with him.

 

However, keep in mind that Adames has never made more than close to league minimum his entire career. He's basically playing on one year contracts the next 3 years if he wants to go the arbitration route, and there is risk in that. A lot can happen or change over 3 years. He hasn't obtained life changing money, yet. We can help him with that security if he's willing to give a little. Maybe he'd like to lock in life changing money for security now, and still have a chance to break the bank later? That can be done, too. So if he's open to it, it's all about finding that middle ground that might work for both teams.

 

So suppose Adames is projected for about 3/30 in arbitration the next 3 years. So from a team perspective, what do we want to get out of this? Extra control. If we can just buy out 2 years of his free agency, we've got him for 5 years instead of 3 which has tremendous value. So from Adames' perspective, if he is going to do something where he's allowing the team to buy out free agency years, the team needs to give something. So perhaps rather than start at 3/30 for those 3 years, we may need to go 3/35. That's fair.

 

So at that point, what are two potential team option dollar amounts that could make sense for the team, but decently compensate Adames? Obviously this is where the guessing game comes in, but I would throw out a $15M team option for 2025 and a $20M team option for 2026 as a possibility, both with a buyout of $2.5M.

 

Why does that make sense for the team? They gain valuable control over Adames, and in the worst case scenario, if he tanks, you're only on the hook for 3/40. This hurts, but it isn't going to cripple the franchise. Does it make sense for Adames? Maybe. As I mentioned, he's never made more than league minimum and he just guaranteed himself $40M of life changing money even if he gets hurt tomorrow. If he "only" ends up with the $40M, it doesn't really hurt him because he would have reached free agency at the same point anyway. Otherwise, he ends up with as much as $70M over 5 years. And if he's still playing at this level, he's going to hit free agency at 31 and he's still going to get a huge multi-year contract then.

 

Obviously I'm just splitballing here, but I do believe there is middle ground that makes sense for both sides if the ideas of both the team and Adames are aligned.

 

I don't quite get suppose hes at 3/30 projection so we offer 3/35 with 2 club options 15&20 mil option. So you take a projection add 7.5mil to it followed to continual raises like a FA model? Wheres the savings here on Milw's side? I always thought an extension with option years spread the wealth earlier to save money near back-end. Youre giving Adames 7.5 mil more than projected and trusting he'll remain worth 17.5M avg the 2 FA seasons. Or in essence paying Adames 2/40. on the FA seasons? He's on a hott streak. White hot like the comparable JJ Hardy used to go through. Those followed with streaks like the one he started the season with for Tampa. I'm excited too and all about Adames, but just not on same page on the money here.

 

Done right the 3/30mil projection ought to look more like extending him at 3/27 rate but paying him 7.5, 9, 10.5 with option years where the buyout is 2.5mil. Then Adames has guaranteed projection of 3/30, a 29.5 guarantee. 1st year FA buyout I would go 14mil and 2yr I think 18.5 is fair. Toss in incentives to earn extra. Even now I look at this and feel I'm offering too much but all told in the 1st extension end Adames gets 5/59.5 to enter real FA with. He'll have made what? 1.7? Mil for his career with chance to earn 7.5 mil the next season vs a 3-4.5mil arb based projection? How much is he really leaving on the table? Remember he's not a Super 2. He's not, nor will he have won an MVP before going through yr 1 of 3 Arbs. Arb is a what have you done. FA is a what you may do value.

 

The "savings" is in the team options. Team options like the ones Peralta has have tremendous value to the team. Adames isn't taking less than his arbitration projections AND giving the team two player options. That would make no sense for him.

 

The longer you can get the team options for, the better. Two is going to cost more upfront than one. If we can get three, even better. Team options are about the best value a team can get. They can get all of the potential reward without assuming major risk.