Brewers trade Feyereisen, Rasmussen to Rays for SS Willy Adames, RHP Trevor Richards

[adambr2]

I'm pumped that Lauer is managing to outperform his peripherals so much but I don't it lasts. Urias has absolutely been a big bright spot for us but I have a hard time seeing how someone can look at that trade objectively and say it's far from a Padres win. Calling someone out as being wrong when they aren't even wrong seems rather... odd.

 

He's arguing that the winner is "to be determined". Yes, it looked bad for the Brewers for awhile. But that lopsidedness has sense faded considerably as Urias heats up and Lauer continues to look useful.

 

No one here is calling the deal a surefire win for the Brewers, at least not yet. But plenty of said that the Brewers were raked over the coals on the deal. That take doesn't appear to be correct, either.

 

I would like to point out though that even if we do "win" the trade in the end, that doesn't mean that San Diego didn't "win" as well. Grisham is obviously great, and Davies had a fantastic season for them which had value, and they helped parlay that into Darvish as well which definitely has value.

 

I suppose if both teams can come out of this with something that made them better in the end, that's really what you want in a trade.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't blame anyone for hating this trade on day 1. I didn't like it either. You had guys playing well, not just playing well but looking like potentially major pieces to a playoff run, and you trade them for another guy that is batting like .160. It's not easy to get excited about that in the moment.

[adambr2]

I knew Willy Adames would be very good. Part of me was hoping the Crew could, prior to 2018, deal a package centered around Arcia for him I always knew the price would be high, and Rasmussen being dealt was something that stung a bit - as I felt he could be a right-handed version of the 2018-2019 Josh Hader - and the visions in my head of the two of them filling that role for Williams, an extended Knebel, or a re-signed Jeffress as the closer were quite nice, indeed.

 

But Adames has been an MVP-type talent, and I think the Crew needs to work up an extension sooner, rather than later.

 

I agree that Adames is exactly the kind of guy they should be looking to extend now. Something like Peralta (in structure, not necessarily in $$) is what I'd be looking for, where we buy out arbitration and a couple years of free agency in the form of a couple team options.

 

Obviously, the interest has to be mutual, and Adames has to be willing to sacrifice a little bit of money in the interests of long-term security. But if he is, I absolutely love these kinds of deals much more than significant decade long investments in outfielders who have already reached their prime.

 

I don't understand how people rip the Yelich extension but then also want to rush to extend a player like Adames. The team extended an MVP caliber player not even a 2 years ago and that deal already looks like it might not be favorable, but now we should try to hurry up and extend a guy who has posted 2 months of good play?? Don't get me wrong, I absolutely love what Adames brings to this team and if his play so far as a Brewer is an indication of how he is going to play into the future, then hell, I would love for him to be a Brewer for life. But let's maybe have a little patience here before committing to anything long term. There were similar posts regarding Hiura in 2019 and I think we all are happy that didn't occur.

 

Because they are not nearly the same thing.

 

When you make a significant investment in a player, you're hoping to pay for future performance, not past performance. Unfortunately so far in Yelich's case, it looks like we're paying for past performance.

 

An arbitration buyout plus two FA year buyouts for Adames takes him to his age 30/31 season which is just about perfect and almost exactly what we did with Peralta. That's far different than paying Yelich after two MVP caliber years all the way into his late 30s.

 

It's ok to wait, too, but the "wait and see" approach will cost you much more in the end. Not a chance that Freddy Peralta's deal wouldn't be significantly larger right now had we waited until now to see what happened rather than taken the shot that he could be the guy he is now. Sometimes it's ok to just take the shot on the talent before it's all the way there too, and Adames always had the talent for this.

 

At least when you whiff on a deal like this, as opposed to a deal like Yelich, it isn't crippling.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I'm pumped that Lauer is managing to outperform his peripherals so much but I don't it lasts. Urias has absolutely been a big bright spot for us but I have a hard time seeing how someone can look at that trade objectively and say it's far from a Padres win. Calling someone out as being wrong when they aren't even wrong seems rather... odd.

 

He's arguing that the winner is "to be determined". Yes, it looked bad for the Brewers for awhile. But that lopsidedness has sense faded considerably as Urias heats up and Lauer continues to look useful.

 

No one here is calling the deal a surefire win for the Brewers, at least not yet. But plenty of said that the Brewers were raked over the coals on the deal. That take doesn't appear to be correct, either.

 

I would like to point out though that even if we do "win" the trade in the end, that doesn't mean that San Diego didn't "win" as well. Grisham is obviously great, and Davies had a fantastic season for them which had value, and they helped parlay that into Darvish as well which definitely has value.

 

I suppose if both teams can come out of this with something that made them better in the end, that's really what you want in a trade.

 

Piggybacking on this to emphasize that trades that wind up benefitting both organizations lead to more trades in the future - if your GM always gets fleeced, they get hesitant and ultimately fired...and if your GM always does the fleecing I think other clubs are much more hesitant to trade with them in the future. It stings a bit to lose Grisham after we as Brewers fans waited so long for him to develop in the minors, but it appears like we received a solid everyday infielder in return under team control. I think diehard Padres fans would have the same to say about Urias in terms of seeing him tear through the minors only to struggle at the MLB level off and on for a few seasons as a Padre until he was traded.

 

It's fun for the team you root for to always be on the 'winning' side of a trade, but IMO it's just as good to have plenty of trade ties if it means the major league roster improves. IMO that's been the case regarding the Grisham/Davies for Lauer/Urias deal 1.5 seasons in.

Edited July 19, 2021 by Fear The Chorizo

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm pumped that Lauer is managing to outperform his peripherals so much but I don't it lasts. Urias has absolutely been a big bright spot for us but I have a hard time seeing how someone can look at that trade objectively and say it's far from a Padres win. Calling someone out as being wrong when they aren't even wrong seems rather... odd.

 

He's arguing that the winner is "to be determined". Yes, it looked bad for the Brewers for awhile. But that lopsidedness has sense faded considerably as Urias heats up and Lauer continues to look useful.

 

No one here is calling the deal a surefire win for the Brewers, at least not yet. But plenty of said that the Brewers were raked over the coals on the deal. That take doesn't appear to be correct, either.

 

I would like to point out though that even if we do "win" the trade in the end, that doesn't mean that San Diego didn't "win" as well. Grisham is obviously great, and Davies had a fantastic season for them which had value, and they helped parlay that into Darvish as well which definitely has value.

 

I suppose if both teams can come out of this with something that made them better in the end, that's really what you want in a trade.

 

Exactly right. It is totally OK for both teams to get what they want out of a deal. In fact, the only ones who "grade" trades and determine who "wins" and "loses" them are fans like us.

 

Right now the Brewers are looking good with the Adames acquisition, along with the useful innings they got out of Trevor Richards before flipping him and Francis for Tellez. But Feyereisen has performed well as a Ray (up until the last week at least), and other than one poor outing, Rasmussen has looked good for the Rays.

 

Yes, the Brewers gave up strong present value and future upside to both the Padres and Rays with Grisham, Davies (flipped), Feyereisen and Rasmussen, but there's also plenty of present value in Urias, Adames, Lauer and, to a lesser extent right now, Tellez. I think it's safe to say that all four of those guys have significant upside as well. I think the hot-takey error is in determining that not only did a team lose a trade in the short term, they have no way of winning it long term, either. Truth is we just don't know.

[ReverendBrewmeister]

I don't understand how people rip the Yelich extension but then also want to rush to extend a player like Adames. ... There were similar posts regarding Hiura in 2019 and I think we all are happy that didn't occur.

 

I understand the reticence in extending another player long-term given the Yelich situation right now. But I would look at Adames a little bit different than Yelich and way different than Hiura.

 

None of us know if the Adames performance of two months in 2021 for Milwaukee is the real deal. But I can look at his career numbers [bA/OBP/SLG/OPS] from only Tampa Bay over 332 games and 1254 PA: .254/.320/.420/.740 (That's including playing in a stadium that Adames has noted as not conducive to his hitting. It's also 474 more PA than Hiura has in his major league career.)

 

There's a shortstop in the Brewers' past with comparable numbers [bA/OBP/SLG/OPS] over 571 games and 2298 PA: .262/.323/.428/.751. That's JJ Hardy's record during his time in Milwaukee. The team has been bouncing through shortstops since Hardy left after 2009: Escobar, Betancourt, Segura, Villar, Arcia.

 

Just from his time with Tampa Bay, Adames looks on track to be a Hardy-type producer at shortstop. From what he's done in his MLB career so far, I'd consider that to be basically Adames' floor. That would be a great addition to lock in for longer than the team currently controls. Buying out some arbitration years while extending for a few more seasons shouldn't have to be a bank-breaking deal if done relatively soon [the "Peralta-type extension"]. If that is done and Adames' current performance as a Brewer proves to be the reality, then the team can think about a second extension later [the "Yelich-type contract"].

[Jopal78]

I don't understand how people rip the Yelich extension but then also want to rush to extend a player like Adames. ... There were similar posts regarding Hiura in 2019 and I think we all are happy that didn't occur.

 

I understand the reticence in extending another player long-term given the Yelich situation right now. But I would look at Adames a little bit different than Yelich and way different than Hiura.

 

None of us know if the Adames performance of two months in 2021 for Milwaukee is the real deal. But I can look at his career numbers [bA/OBP/SLG/OPS] from only Tampa Bay over 332 games and 1254 PA: .254/.320/.420/.740 (That's including playing in a stadium that Adames has noted as not conducive to his hitting. It's also 474 more PA than Hiura has in his major league career.)

 

There's a shortstop in the Brewers' past with comparable numbers [bA/OBP/SLG/OPS] over 571 games and 2298 PA: .262/.323/.428/.751. That's JJ Hardy's record during his time in Milwaukee. The team has been bouncing through shortstops since Hardy left after 2009: Escobar, Betancourt, Segura, Villar, Arcia.

 

Just from his time with Tampa Bay, Adames looks on track to be a Hardy-type producer at shortstop. From what he's done in his MLB career so far, I'd consider that to be basically Adames' floor. That would be a great addition to lock in for longer than the team currently controls. Buying out some arbitration years while extending for a few more seasons shouldn't have to be a bank-breaking deal if done relatively soon [the "Peralta-type extension"]. If that is done and Adames' current performance as a Brewer proves to be the reality, then the team can think about a second extension later [the "Yelich-type contract"].

 

Adames is less than six months away from getting real paid in arbitration anyways. Most likely it is already too late for a modest upfront guarantee in exchange for selling off some high earning years to have much appeal to him. I'm sure he and his agent are well aware they will do better financially going year to year at this point.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't understand how people rip the Yelich extension but then also want to rush to extend a player like Adames. ... There were similar posts regarding Hiura in 2019 and I think we all are happy that didn't occur.

 

I understand the reticence in extending another player long-term given the Yelich situation right now. But I would look at Adames a little bit different than Yelich and way different than Hiura.

 

None of us know if the Adames performance of two months in 2021 for Milwaukee is the real deal. But I can look at his career numbers [bA/OBP/SLG/OPS] from only Tampa Bay over 332 games and 1254 PA: .254/.320/.420/.740 (That's including playing in a stadium that Adames has noted as not conducive to his hitting. It's also 474 more PA than Hiura has in his major league career.)

 

There's a shortstop in the Brewers' past with comparable numbers [bA/OBP/SLG/OPS] over 571 games and 2298 PA: .262/.323/.428/.751. That's JJ Hardy's record during his time in Milwaukee. The team has been bouncing through shortstops since Hardy left after 2009: Escobar, Betancourt, Segura, Villar, Arcia.

 

Just from his time with Tampa Bay, Adames looks on track to be a Hardy-type producer at shortstop. From what he's done in his MLB career so far, I'd consider that to be basically Adames' floor. That would be a great addition to lock in for longer than the team currently controls. Buying out some arbitration years while extending for a few more seasons shouldn't have to be a bank-breaking deal if done relatively soon [the "Peralta-type extension"]. If that is done and Adames' current performance as a Brewer proves to be the reality, then the team can think about a second extension later [the "Yelich-type contract"].

 

I know people don't like to hear this, particularly people around here, but there is a major non-baseball side to the Yelich contract that is much larger than this community seems to realize. Yelich is on everything. He's on every piece of collateral their marketing department makes, and not just that, he is the face on virtually all of their external brand partnerships. You can't approach Associated Bank or West Bend Mutual and say "Here's Willy Adames." Now as it stands with Yeli's current power outage, I'd say that no, his off-field value probably doesn't compensate for how he's playing. But the Brewers knew they weren't getting 9 all-star seasons when they signed him to that deal and they knew exactly what he meant for the brand identity.

[BrewCrewForever]

Adames has been arguably a top five player in all of baseball since joining the Brewers. Remarkable. If he keeps this up and Yelich turns things around forget about it.

 

I was thinking about this the other day, if Willy keeps this up and Yeli turns back into the human cheat code, with this pitching staff and the other quality role players in the lineup a World Series Championship is maybe even more realistic than it was in 2018.

[DoubleSwitch]

An arbitration buyout plus two FA year buyouts for Adames takes him to his age 30/31 season which is just about perfect and almost exactly what we did with Peralta. That's far different than paying Yelich after two MVP caliber years all the way into his late 30s.

 

You can't just take super team friendly deals you make up in your head and compare them to actual deals signed by players and say they're better. Of course they are, but that has nothing to do with anything. If Adames is signing an extension at this point you'll probably have to pay him a market rate into his mid 30s. It would be like trying to sign Freddy to that deal right now after he's already an all star. Not gonna happen.

[adambr2]

An arbitration buyout plus two FA year buyouts for Adames takes him to his age 30/31 season which is just about perfect and almost exactly what we did with Peralta. That's far different than paying Yelich after two MVP caliber years all the way into his late 30s.

 

You can't just take super team friendly deals you make up in your head and compare them to actual deals signed by players and say they're better. Of course they are, but that has nothing to do with anything. If Adames is signing an extension at this point you'll probably have to pay him a market rate into his mid 30s. It would be like trying to sign Freddy to that deal right now after he's already an all star. Not gonna happen.

 

You don't pay free agent market rates when guys are years away from free agency. Not how it works. If it did, the Yelich extension would have been even more expensive on a per year basis than what it was.

 

Of course you can take potential deals and compare them to actual deals. That's how the markets are set in the first place. Adames has no long-term security at this point. Some guys value that security and are willing to take a little bit less to lock that in now and insure themselves against a major injury or bust. Some guys would rather wait for free agency and shoot for the moon. Every individual is different. It doesn't hurt to inquire with Adames and his agent.

 

The fact that you think Adames has already proven too much to get him for a discount in the 5 to 6 year area and another guy thinks he hasn't shown enough to do that should be proof enough that the truth is somewhere in the middle.

[monty57]

An arbitration buyout plus two FA year buyouts for Adames takes him to his age 30/31 season which is just about perfect and almost exactly what we did with Peralta. That's far different than paying Yelich after two MVP caliber years all the way into his late 30s.

 

You can't just take super team friendly deals you make up in your head and compare them to actual deals signed by players and say they're better. Of course they are, but that has nothing to do with anything. If Adames is signing an extension at this point you'll probably have to pay him a market rate into his mid 30s. It would be like trying to sign Freddy to that deal right now after he's already an all star. Not gonna happen.

 

When a team signs a pre-arby or arby player to an extension, they are transferring risk from the player to the team (much like insurance), so they should get a discount for doing so. The closer the player gets to free agency, the less the discount.

 

The cheapest contracts are done early on, but they also bear the most risk to the team. Think of it this way: The Brewers could have offered Burnes an extension when he was a rookie and looking terrible, and right now they'd look like geniuses. On the other hand, they could have offered Hiura an extension when he was a rookie and looking like a stud, and they'd be regretting it. That's the risk the team is taking on, so they are heavily compensated for it by getting a significant discount to what the player would reasonably get if they went year-to-year through arby and into free agency.

 

Yelich had signed an extension with the Marlins, and since he played well it looked like a steal. When the Brewers signed him, there wasn't any need for him to extend because he'd already made tens of millions of dollars, so he didn't need to give much of a discount. Adames to this point in his career has made roughly $1.5M. Not chump change, but not enough for him to retire comfortably if his career were to suddenly end. Next year, he'll probably make a couple million, and that will gradually increase until he's out of arby and into free agency. If we are going to offer an extension, I'd do it soon, as his discount is getting smaller and smaller the longer we wait, and in a year or two we'd basically be paying him full market value and the Brewers can't afford to pay too many good players their full market value.

 

Some players will be willing to give up potential future earning for the security of a long-term guaranteed extension, and some won't. I'm a proponent of offering extensions to good pre-arby guys, along the line of those signed with Peralta, Lucroy and Braun's first extension, and building your core around those players. Once the players get into their arby years, it's pretty much a free agent contract, and the Brewers are not going to be able to win continually if they're building their core with free agent deals.

 

As it stands right now, the players who will be free agents after the 2024 season include Woodruff, Peralta, Burnes, Adames, Lauer, and Houser. It will be interesting to see how they play things. Will they stack the deck and try to add as much talent for a few years as they can before blowing things up, or will they extend some of these guys and trade off others as they near free agency?

[MrTPlush]

Adames has been arguably a top five player in all of baseball since joining the Brewers. Remarkable. If he keeps this up and Yelich turns things around forget about it.

 

I was thinking about this the other day, if Willy keeps this up and Yeli turns back into the human cheat code, with this pitching staff and the other quality role players in the lineup a World Series Championship is maybe even more realistic than it was in 2018.

 

Are we really still dreaming on Yelich becoming a human cheat code again?

 

At this point I dream of him being a fringe All Star again like he was in Miami.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think Yeli has better days ahead, but I also don't think we'll ever see the MVP guy again.

[bork]

 

As it stands right now, the players who will be free agents after the 2024 season include Woodruff, Peralta, Burnes, Adames, Lauer, and Houser. It will be interesting to see how they play things. Will they stack the deck and try to add as much talent for a few years as they can before blowing things up, or will they extend some of these guys and trade off others as they near free agency?

 

I was just thinking about this. We've got a 4 year window, with most of the pitching staff under control, but lots of questions in the OF, 1B and C after next year. I think you've got to go all in with a pitching staff like this.

[pacopete4]

I never know what “all in” really means. There are only so many players you can or will have the opportunity to acquire. The Brewers have quality options pretty much anywhere they turn to on their roster. I’m sure there will be tweaks but upgrading areas is going to be difficult.

[Eye Black]

I think Yeli has better days ahead, but I also don't think we'll ever see the MVP guy again.

I agree, I would bet against a precipitous decline continuing throughout the next several years. I don’t think he’s likely to win another MVP, but I think he has some valuable seasons ahead of him. He still has the capability to hit the ball too hard for me to buy into a sub-.400 slugging percentage continuing over the long haul.

 

It may not be a perfect comparison, but Robin Yount’s production backed up a bit during his late 20s and he obviously bounced back to have some good seasons throughout his early 30s (including an MVP season at age-33).

[Jopal78]

 

You don't pay free agent market rates when guys are years away from free agency. Not how it works. If it did, the Yelich extension would have been even more expensive on a per year basis than what it was.

 

Of course you can take potential deals and compare them to actual deals. That's how the markets are set in the first place. Adames has no long-term security at this point. Some guys value that security and are willing to take a little bit less to lock that in now and insure themselves against a major injury or bust. Some guys would rather wait for free agency and shoot for the moon. Every individual is different. It doesn't hurt to inquire with Adames and his agent.

 

The fact that you think Adames has already proven too much to get him for a discount in the 5 to 6 year area and another guy thinks he hasn't shown enough to do that should be proof enough that the truth is somewhere in the middle.

 

Sure, you don't want to pay market rates for a player years away from free agency, but by the same token when Adames is 6 months away from arbitration where his pay will grow exponentially he has no real reason to sign an extension with the Brewers.

 

He, his agent and the Brewers F.O. know if he plays well he'll likely make 25-30 million dollars over the next three years. What are the Brewers going to do; offer him 3yrs/45 and ask for a club option for a 4th year? That type of deal doesn't make any sense for Milwaukee, and offering anything less doesn't really make any sense for Adames (unless he doesn't believe he can continue to perform at this level, or is afraid of a catastrophic injury ruining his career).

[Fear The Chorizo]

 

You don't pay free agent market rates when guys are years away from free agency. Not how it works. If it did, the Yelich extension would have been even more expensive on a per year basis than what it was.

 

Of course you can take potential deals and compare them to actual deals. That's how the markets are set in the first place. Adames has no long-term security at this point. Some guys value that security and are willing to take a little bit less to lock that in now and insure themselves against a major injury or bust. Some guys would rather wait for free agency and shoot for the moon. Every individual is different. It doesn't hurt to inquire with Adames and his agent.

 

The fact that you think Adames has already proven too much to get him for a discount in the 5 to 6 year area and another guy thinks he hasn't shown enough to do that should be proof enough that the truth is somewhere in the middle.

 

Sure, you don't want to pay market rates for a player years away from free agency, but by the same token when Adames is 6 months away from arbitration where his pay will grow exponentially he has no real reason to sign an extension with the Brewers.

 

He, his agent and the Brewers F.O. know if he plays well he'll likely make 25-30 million dollars over the next three years. What are the Brewers going to do; offer him 3yrs/45 and ask for a club option for a 4th year? That type of deal doesn't make any sense for Milwaukee, and offering anything less doesn't really make any sense for Adames (unless he doesn't believe he can continue to perform at this level, or is afraid of a catastrophic injury ruining his career).

 

There's no way he's going to make $30M over the next three arbitration years unless he wins MVP next season. Not with his good but not great production as a Ray, which is what the arbitration process will continue to factor in - particularly with this first go-round this offseason.

 

And it's not like Adames is just a year from free agency once he hits his first arbitration year - he's not a free agent until the 2025 season, i believe when he's 31 yrs old. The arbitration process is going to weigh what Adames did as a Ray along with his run as a Brewer, meaning his first arbitration raise will be significant from his league minimum salary but he's not going to be paid like an AS-caliber SS in arby year 1. Depending how the structure of an extension would look, Adames and his team would probably love to sign a longterm deal that guarantees what his expected arbitration escalations will be plus tacks on 2-3 more seasons of a contract at market rate on the back end. Particularly if they would base his value on his 51 games as a Brewer compared to the 332 prior ones with Tampa Bay. I for one feel the Brewers shouldn't dole out an extension based on an initial hot streak by Adames, impressive as it may be. Hopefully we're talking about how great he is this time next year, and the 2022-2023 offseason would be the ideal time to try and get him extended - or potentially deal him elsewhere in effort for a high prospect return if there are other SS prospects in the Brewers system that are ready for the majors.

[monty57]

 

You don't pay free agent market rates when guys are years away from free agency. Not how it works. If it did, the Yelich extension would have been even more expensive on a per year basis than what it was.

 

Of course you can take potential deals and compare them to actual deals. That's how the markets are set in the first place. Adames has no long-term security at this point. Some guys value that security and are willing to take a little bit less to lock that in now and insure themselves against a major injury or bust. Some guys would rather wait for free agency and shoot for the moon. Every individual is different. It doesn't hurt to inquire with Adames and his agent.

 

The fact that you think Adames has already proven too much to get him for a discount in the 5 to 6 year area and another guy thinks he hasn't shown enough to do that should be proof enough that the truth is somewhere in the middle.

 

Sure, you don't want to pay market rates for a player years away from free agency, but by the same token when Adames is 6 months away from arbitration where his pay will grow exponentially he has no real reason to sign an extension with the Brewers.

 

He, his agent and the Brewers F.O. know if he plays well he'll likely make 25-30 million dollars over the next three years. What are the Brewers going to do; offer him 3yrs/45 and ask for a club option for a 4th year? That type of deal doesn't make any sense for Milwaukee, and offering anything less doesn't really make any sense for Adames (unless he doesn't believe he can continue to perform at this level, or is afraid of a catastrophic injury ruining his career).

 

Do you really think he'll get that much in his three arby years? That seems high for someone who hasn't been a superstar from Day 1 in the big leagues. Guys like Javy Baez ($24.25 in arby), Trevor Story ($28M) and Trea Turner ($22M) are in their final year of arby (Note that I doubled the 2020 actual pay since they got lowered salaries for the year). Marcus Semian actually came up as a "similar batters through age 25" on baseball-reference, and he made $22.25M through arby before signing a one-year / $18M deal with the Jays.

 

Adames has been great as a Brewer, but I think $25-$30M is a bit high as an expected range if they were looking to make an offer today. But, even if I'm wrong and he is expected to get the $25-$30M you suggested, why would the Brewers offer 3 yrs/$45M? If they were to make an offer, they would be taking on the risk, so they should get some sort of discount for the arbitration years, and what he could expect to make if he remained a good player and hit free agency. If he wouldn't agree to taking a discount, then there is no reason the Brewers should take on the risk of injury or underperformance by guaranteeing him a contract when they already have him under "team control" for three more years. I'd think your $45M would be closer to the five year total than a three year total for an extension offer (discount the arby years to around $18-20M in total, plus around $14-16M for each FA year).

 

At the end of the day, it would be his call as to whether or not he'd be willing to give up some potential future earnings in order to get a guaranteed contract. If not, then we have plenty of other players we could consider extending, and we'd look at Adames as a guy we might have through 2023 and then look to trade him away before his final arby year. We can't get too emotionally attached to any player, especially if we're only basing it on a partial season since the trade was made.

[monty57]

As it stands right now, the players who will be free agents after the 2024 season include Woodruff, Peralta, Burnes, Adames, Lauer, and Houser. It will be interesting to see how they play things. Will they stack the deck and try to add as much talent for a few years as they can before blowing things up, or will they extend some of these guys and trade off others as they near free agency?

 

Don't want to derail a thread about Adames, but Cots says "20:$575,200, 21:$1M, 22:$2.25M, 23:$3.5M, 24:$5.5M, 25:$8M club option ($1.5M buyout), 26:$8M club option (no buyout)" for Peralta's contract. If '25 and '26 are pure team options, that changes things, and could turn out to be one of the best contract extensions a team has ever signed. Goes to show how much discount a team gets when they offer extensions to players when they are in their pre-arby years.

[adambr2]

As it stands right now, the players who will be free agents after the 2024 season include Woodruff, Peralta, Burnes, Adames, Lauer, and Houser. It will be interesting to see how they play things. Will they stack the deck and try to add as much talent for a few years as they can before blowing things up, or will they extend some of these guys and trade off others as they near free agency?

 

Don't want to derail a thread about Adames, but Cots says "20:$575,200, 21:$1M, 22:$2.25M, 23:$3.5M, 24:$5.5M, 25:$8M club option ($1.5M buyout), 26:$8M club option (no buyout)" for Peralta's contract. If '25 and '26 are pure team options, that changes things, and could turn out to be one of the best contract extensions a team has ever signed. Goes to show how much discount a team gets when they offer extensions to players when they are in their pre-arby years.

 

The Peralta deal reminds me a lot of the Lucroy deal. Not structured exactly the same but also extremely team friendly.

[Jopal78]

Javier Baez and Trevor Story got approximately 25+~30 million in their three years of arbitration. Lindor got even more.

 

Depends where you see Adames; a lesser player than Baez or Story? If so maybe he gets less than 30 mil in arbitration, on their level or better he’ll get even more

[Fear The Chorizo]

Javier Baez and Trevor Story got approximately 25+~30 million in their three years of arbitration. Lindor got even more.

 

Depends where you see Adames; a lesser player than Baez or Story? If so maybe he gets less than 30 mil in arbitration, on their level or better he’ll get even more

 

I don't see Adames as an assumed annual all star caliber SS occasionally in the MVP discussion. That's what those three players are. Adames has had that type of stretch since coming to the Brewers in 50ish games, but his career numbers say he isn't going to be a SS that will set the arbitration marker as he progresses through it.

[xisxisxis]

Javier Baez and Trevor Story got approximately 25+~30 million in their three years of arbitration. Lindor got even more.

 

Depends where you see Adames; a lesser player than Baez or Story? If so maybe he gets less than 30 mil in arbitration, on their level or better he’ll get even more

 

I don't see Adames as an assumed annual all star caliber SS occasionally in the MVP discussion. That's what those three players are. Adames has had that type of stretch since coming to the Brewers in 50ish games, but his career numbers say he isn't going to be a SS that will set the arbitration marker as he progresses through it.

Adames career numbers outside of Tropicana Park (at least from 2018-2020 seasons) gives him a 135 wRC+. His numbers since coming to the Brewers are a wRC+ of 162. It was hypothesized the he didn't see well in Tropicana and there was just an article on mlb.com to that effect to account for his performance with the Brewers looking more like his away numbers from Tampa. While the 162 may not be sustainable, a wRC+ of 135 puts him in the top 20 hitters in baseball (The only SS with a higher wRC+ this year has been Tatis at 167). If Willy keeps it up through the rest of the year, there's pretty good evidence that he WILL be expensive in arbitration.

 

We can't have it both ways. If you want good players you will need to pay for them when they hit arbitration. If you want cheap players you'll likely get crappy players.