Brewers trade Feyereisen, Rasmussen to Rays for SS Willy Adames, RHP Trevor Richards

[patrickgpe]

I’d like to see what the brewers bullpen era was before and after. This is clearly a win/win trade and I’d do it over 7 days a week and twice on Sunday but the depth of the pen has been an issue since.

[timpep]

How many save opportunities-saves is a game tying 2-run HR at home bottom of the 9th worth?

 

This is essentially the question Win Probability Added attempts to answer. So far JPF has posted a +1.02 WPA while Adames is at +1.92. WPA also only accounts for batting contributions & stolen bases, so if Willy goes 1st to 3rd or scores from 2nd on a single that credit goes to the hitter, or if he makes a great play in the field it is credited to the pitcher.

 

Definitely a win/win to this point that has carried over to the team level with the Brewers 22-10 since the trade (most wins in MLB over that stretch) while TB has been just behind at 19-12.

 

Brewers runs per game pre trade: 3.66

Brewers runs per game post trade: 4.47

 

Rays bullpen ERA pre trade: 3.53

Rays bullpen ERA post trade: 2.28

 

I think the trade looks even better if we find a way to replace Richards and the -1.5 WPA he brings to the table.

 

Last night was a good example of how things are never in a vacuum. Adames was a hero so it seems like the Adames trade helped them win, but they only needed a hero because the other piece of the Adames trade blew the game.

 

Evaluating based on WAR or WPA we probably aren't doing great but I don't think either of those stats fully encompasses what Adames has done for an offense that was really struggling when he came over.

 

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out over the next few years, it does look like a win for both sides at the moment though.

[sveumrules]

I think the trade looks even better if we find a way to replace Richards and the -1.5 WPA he brings to the table.

 

I'm only seeing -0.16 WPA for Richards so far...

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=23&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31

 

Trevor's gmLI of 1.01 means he isn't really seeing too many high leverage situations on the whole with Hader (1.94), Williams (1.61), Boxberger (1.55), JPF (1.48 when he was here) & Suter (1.36) all well ahead of him.

 

Occasionally you might have to use your 5th/6th reliever in a high leverage spot, but over the long run they don't typically appear in enough high leverage situations to impact WPA much in one direction or the other.

[JCREW]

Things are never in a vacuum…

 

I was just thinking about how much this trade allowed us to absorb the Shaw injury.

 

Apparently, Urias can hit, field, and throw in a super utility role, but do none of those while playing SS.

[timpep]

I think the trade looks even better if we find a way to replace Richards and the -1.5 WPA he brings to the table.

 

I'm only seeing -0.16 WPA for Richards so far...

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=23&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31

 

Trevor's gmLI of 1.01 means he isn't really seeing too many high leverage situations on the whole with Hader (1.94), Williams (1.61), Boxberger (1.55), JPF (1.48 when he was here) & Suter (1.36) all well ahead of him.

 

Occasionally you might have to use your 5th/6th reliever in a high leverage spot, but over the long run they don't typically appear in enough high leverage situations to impact WPA much in one direction or the other.

 

You're completely right I grabbed the wrong number entirely there. Yeah that makes me agree with you even more about this trade than I already did.

[homer]

Adames since coming to Milwaukee: 286/357/516

Urias since Adames came to Milwaukee: 271/344/441

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Adames since coming to Milwaukee: 286/357/516

Urias since Adames came to Milwaukee: 271/344/441

 

On this same note, the gap between the offensive numbers of Urias and Grisham is let's just say - not as big as it used to be. Ditto for the gap between Lauer and Davies.

 

Not calling it a good trade yet but it's starting to become less bad.

[bill hAll Star]

I may buy a bit of the "he needed to change positions" thing for Urias, but I also think the majority of Urias' rise is due to:

 

1. He was starting to come around anyways.

2. We have played some spectacular hitting opponents and venues this past month.

3. Others in the lineup stepping up like Adames, Yelich, etc. meaning Urias sees better pitches.

 

But I think #2 is huge for most of our guys rounding into form. Nothing better when you're struggling than a month of series against the Diamondbacks, Tigers, Pirates, Cardinals, Reds (with injuries) pitching at Great American Ballpark and Coors Field.

[PeaveyFury]

I absolutely LOVE the way both Adames and Urias play baseball, beyond just the offensive numbers (which have been great).

[ThisIsMyCrew]

We get to see Willy and Urias for 3 more years together. Should be a fun stretch. If Hiura turns it around that’s a solid core with Yelich in there.

[SeaBass]

This isn't some original idea here but Adames really seems to have unlocked fun and given this team a personality. Avi Garcia and Omar Narvaez have kind of stepped up as leaders and Urias appears to have found himself to be a comfortable fit for the team whereas before he seemed a little lost and awkward being a newer player, acquired in a trade and big things being expected of him. It's a lot of pressure for a young guy that hadn't established himself yet but now he fits. It's been fun to watch this team really come together over the last month or so. Yelich and Shaw have been, I feel, more lead by example guys and more even keel, chill type guys, which is fine but I just really like the energy that's formed more recently.

[IIAY]

Willy Adames 2021 bWAR: 2.1

Orlando Arcia career bWAR: 2.3

[OldSchoolSnapper]

viewtopic.php?p=1363024#p1363024

 

LOL

 

And I think I'm usually one of the "they know more than we do" guys. I HATED this trade.

[markedman5]

Always entertaining to see trade reactions ……..man people were harsh on this move.

[SRB]

Willy Adames 2021 bWAR: 2.1

Orlando Arcia career bWAR: 2.3

 

Brewers Team SS fWAR, 2017-2020: 0.8

Willy Adames fWAR, May-June 2021: 1.2++

[markedman5]

Willy Adames

 

This season:

w/ TB - .197/.254/.371 10 BB/51 SO (132 ABs)

w/ MIL - .282/.365/.526 17 BB/35 SO (131 ABs)

 

#ThisIsMyCrew 

[brewcrewdue80]

I think Adames feeds off the home crowd energy. That bat flip HR and now Grand Slam. Crowds this size he'd only see on the road before. Seriously just stamp him face of franchise extend him this off-season. Yelich lost his after that kneecap. Just human. Willy isn't.

 

Just to add to that feeling. 7 hits in 6games. 7 walks in 6 games. 2 epic HRs. Since full capacity allowed.

[reillymcshane]

I think Adames feeds off the home crowd energy. That bat flip HR and now Grand Slam. Crowds this size he'd only see on the road before. Seriously just stamp him face of franchise extend him this off-season. Yelich lost his after that kneecap. Just human. Willy isn't.

 

Just to add to that feeling. 7 hits in 6games. 7 walks in 6 games. 2 epic HRs. Since full capacity allowed.

I think the home/road splits at Tampa were clue that he could be better. No doubt he feeds off the energy of the crowd. That's the kind of guy he is.

 

But Adames had a career OPS of around .650 at Tropicana Field - but .850 on the road. I think he said it was just hard to pick up the ball there.

 

Man, if we have a .280 BA, 25 HR hitting shortstop - who plays pretty good defense - that's going to be huge for the next couple of years. Just huge.

[wildcat2237]

 

Man, if we have a .280 BA, 25 HR hitting shortstop - who plays pretty good defense - that's going to be huge for the next couple of years. Just huge.

 

This. Adames has said he couldnt see the ball at Tropicana. He also feeds off the energy. Stearns was apparently after him for at least a year. Credit to Stearns for seeing saomething that none of us saw.

 

Stearns found an underpeforming talent who was "surplus" in Tampa and used a strength to acquire him, IN JUNE.

[sveumrules]

That David Stearns man....easily always the smartest guy in the room...the team is struggling offensively, so they need a bat(s) badly..Stearns says "hold my beer", and what does he do?? Goes out and gets a career .254 hitter, or maybe it is the current .197 BA that he wanted so badly...or perhaps...the .254 OBP. Absolutely stellar! Nothing says "I'll turn this offense around, just you wait", more than going out and getting the big bat of Wily Adames. Well done DS..I can see why so many Brewer fans think you're so great! *whew*

 

The Brewers obsession with middle infielders that can’t hit continues. Who knows how this trade will work out but this won’t exactly be some huge addition to a lineup that can’t score.

 

44 games pre-Adames: 3.66 runs per game (21-23 record)

37 games post-Adames: 5.11 runs per game (27-10 record)

[adambr2]

I think there's definitely something to the theory that Adames numbers were suppressed at Tropicana by, for whatever reason, a lack of ability to see the ball.

 

His home/away splits have normalized since leaving Tampa. His .829 OPS in Milwaukee is almost right in line with his .858 OPS since becoming a Brewer, versus his brutal Tropicana splits.

 

So I think there's reason to believe that Adames could be a little bit better going forward than his career 106 OPS+.

[pacopete4]

That David Stearns man....easily always the smartest guy in the room...the team is struggling offensively, so they need a bat(s) badly..Stearns says "hold my beer", and what does he do?? Goes out and gets a career .254 hitter, or maybe it is the current .197 BA that he wanted so badly...or perhaps...the .254 OBP. Absolutely stellar! Nothing says "I'll turn this offense around, just you wait", more than going out and getting the big bat of Wily Adames. Well done DS..I can see why so many Brewer fans think you're so great! *whew*

 

The Brewers obsession with middle infielders that can’t hit continues. Who knows how this trade will work out but this won’t exactly be some huge addition to a lineup that can’t score.

 

44 games pre-Adames: 3.66 runs per game (21-23 record)

37 games post-Adames: 5.11 runs per game (27-10 record)

 

Pretty sure brewers888 also says Wong can’t hit either. I’m sure there’s some Urias comments too. I doubt we see much of him right now. Usually only shows when things are not going as well.

[Lathund]

There are some posters that I use as a sanity check. If they're on the other side of an argument I feel good. If I find myself agreeing with them I start to scrutinize my stance to find the inevitable flaw.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

That David Stearns man....easily always the smartest guy in the room...the team is struggling offensively, so they need a bat(s) badly..Stearns says "hold my beer", and what does he do?? Goes out and gets a career .254 hitter, or maybe it is the current .197 BA that he wanted so badly...or perhaps...the .254 OBP. Absolutely stellar! Nothing says "I'll turn this offense around, just you wait", more than going out and getting the big bat of Wily Adames. Well done DS..I can see why so many Brewer fans think you're so great! *whew*

 

The Brewers obsession with middle infielders that can’t hit continues. Who knows how this trade will work out but this won’t exactly be some huge addition to a lineup that can’t score.

 

44 games pre-Adames: 3.66 runs per game (21-23 record)

37 games post-Adames: 5.11 runs per game (27-10 record)

 

Pretty sure brewers888 also says Wong can’t hit either. I’m sure there’s some Urias comments too. I doubt we see much of him right now. Usually only shows when things are not going as well.

 

He was all over the IGT yesterday after the Brewers went down 7-0 after 1/2 inning. Absent after that. Strange.

[tigerbrew]

Stearns acquiring Hunter Strickland last month has been pretty good, Strickland has basically replaced Feyereisen in the bullpen. Adames has been performing like an all star caliber SS for the Brewers and Trevor Richards has pitched decently in middle relief. The Adames trade keeps getting better.

 

With Urias playing and hitting well, and Eric Lauer pitching much better, the Grisham trade is also looking better.